From 62f99a19aec364e7bad28579c957ded7e1c5ad1e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Wed, 31 Mar 2021 15:02:41 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Daily commit --- data/csetforetell-questions.json | 356 +- data/elicit-questions.json | 5070 ++++----- data/fantasyscotus-questions.json | 186 +- data/goodjudgment-questions.json | 70 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json | 837 +- data/hypermind-questions.json | 120 +- data/ladbrokes-questions.json | 168 +- data/metaculus-questions.json | 5435 +++++----- data/metaforecasts.csv | 2875 +++-- data/metaforecasts.json | 14749 +++++++++++++------------- data/polymarket-questions.json | 633 +- data/predictit-questions.json | 1144 +- data/smarkets-questions.json | 287 +- data/williamhill-questions.json | 34 +- 14 files changed, 15888 insertions(+), 16076 deletions(-) diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index c2e73ec..6b33e26 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -1,4 +1,46 @@ [ + { + "title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "10", + "numforecasters": "9", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "7", + "numforecasters": "7", + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work", @@ -7,32 +49,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.1292, + "probability": 0.12390000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.2303, + "probability": 0.2161, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.317, + "probability": 0.282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16620000000000001, + "probability": 0.1866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.1573, + "probability": 0.19140000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "65", - "numforecasters": "53", + "numforecasts": "77", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -43,17 +85,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "13", - "numforecasters": "12", + "numforecasts": "14", + "numforecasters": "13", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -64,17 +106,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "11", - "numforecasters": "10", + "numforecasts": "12", + "numforecasters": "11", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -85,17 +127,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "12", - "numforecasters": "11", + "numforecasts": "13", + "numforecasters": "12", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -106,32 +148,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 7,500", - "probability": 0.039599999999999996, + "probability": 0.042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1348, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.2783, + "probability": 0.3064, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.29600000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 13,500", - "probability": 0.2421, + "probability": 0.2208, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "42", - "numforecasters": "34", + "numforecasts": "44", + "numforecasters": "36", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -142,32 +184,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 70,000", - "probability": 0.1119, + "probability": 0.1234, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.316, + "probability": 0.33340000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", - "probability": 0.3179, + "probability": 0.3059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", - "probability": 0.175, + "probability": 0.165, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 130,000", - "probability": 0.0793, + "probability": 0.0723, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "74", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -178,32 +220,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.1371, + "probability": 0.1294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.17859999999999998, + "probability": 0.1863, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.4921, + "probability": 0.5024000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.1675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.0121, + "probability": 0.0144, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "22", - "numforecasters": "20", + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "22", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -214,32 +256,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 3%", - "probability": 0.228, + "probability": 0.243, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.32299999999999995, + "probability": 0.313, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.307, + "probability": 0.297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", - "probability": 0.096, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.5%", - "probability": 0.046, + "probability": 0.047, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "13", - "numforecasters": "12", + "numforecasts": "14", + "numforecasters": "13", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -250,32 +292,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.04650000000000001, + "probability": 0.047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10490000000000001, + "probability": 0.102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2274, + "probability": 0.2225, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.31370000000000003, + "probability": 0.3239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3074, + "probability": 0.3045, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "70", + "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -286,17 +328,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "105", + "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -316,8 +358,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "130", + "numforecasts": "169", + "numforecasters": "131", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -328,17 +370,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $40 billion", - "probability": 0.0557, + "probability": 0.056299999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2577, + "probability": 0.259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", - "probability": 0.40869999999999995, + "probability": 0.40630000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -348,11 +390,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion", - "probability": 0.073, + "probability": 0.0733, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "49", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 2 }, @@ -369,26 +411,26 @@ }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.129, + "probability": 0.121, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.4286, + "probability": 0.4255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.3272, + "probability": 0.3159, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.08070000000000001, + "probability": 0.10310000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "49", + "numforecasts": "51", "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 2 }, @@ -400,17 +442,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.1868, + "probability": 0.19030000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3164, + "probability": 0.31489999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.2991, + "probability": 0.29719999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -420,11 +462,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0436, + "probability": 0.0435, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", + "numforecasts": "134", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, @@ -436,31 +478,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0506, + "probability": 0.051, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2032, + "probability": 0.1984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.3639, + "probability": 0.3619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2382, + "probability": 0.2429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.14400000000000002, + "probability": 0.1458, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", + "numforecasts": "109", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, @@ -472,31 +514,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0495, + "probability": 0.0482, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.30329999999999996, + "probability": 0.3013, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3326, + "probability": 0.33409999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.1923, + "probability": 0.19329999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1223, + "probability": 0.1231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", + "numforecasts": "130", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -508,31 +550,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.039, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0834, + "probability": 0.0855, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", - "probability": 0.19829999999999998, + "probability": 0.2028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", - "probability": 0.3469, + "probability": 0.3348, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 32,000", - "probability": 0.33240000000000003, + "probability": 0.3369, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "62", + "numforecasts": "63", "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 2 }, @@ -544,32 +586,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1329, + "probability": 0.12960000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.4524, + "probability": 0.44380000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.2904, + "probability": 0.30010000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.09720000000000001, + "probability": 0.09960000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000", - "probability": 0.0271, + "probability": 0.027000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "131", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -580,12 +622,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 0.45%", - "probability": 0.0489, + "probability": 0.049699999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1866, + "probability": 0.1891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -595,16 +637,16 @@ }, { "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", - "probability": 0.21969999999999998, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2503, + "probability": 0.2466, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasts": "58", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 2 }, @@ -616,17 +658,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "134", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -637,22 +679,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.4242, + "probability": 0.4311, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.3281, + "probability": 0.321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.24760000000000001, + "probability": 0.24789999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "108", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "116", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -663,31 +705,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 20%", - "probability": 0.0959, + "probability": 0.0941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1766, + "probability": 0.1827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%", - "probability": 0.361, + "probability": 0.3671, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%", - "probability": 0.24760000000000001, + "probability": 0.2427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 35%", - "probability": 0.11900000000000001, + "probability": 0.1134, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "65", + "numforecasts": "68", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 2 }, @@ -699,16 +741,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "295", + "numforecasts": "305", "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3 }, @@ -720,26 +762,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0348, + "probability": 0.0342, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1032, + "probability": 0.09359999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.23579999999999998, + "probability": 0.2275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6262, + "probability": 0.6446999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "220", + "numforecasts": "228", "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3 }, @@ -751,31 +793,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.12789999999999999, + "probability": 0.1266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18420000000000003, + "probability": 0.18030000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2625, + "probability": 0.26539999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.28800000000000003, + "probability": 0.2919, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.1374, + "probability": 0.1358, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "219", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3 }, @@ -787,31 +829,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 15%", - "probability": 0.07919999999999999, + "probability": 0.0799, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1931, + "probability": 0.1935, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%", - "probability": 0.3221, + "probability": 0.3193, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", - "probability": 0.2644, + "probability": 0.2656, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 21%", - "probability": 0.1413, + "probability": 0.1418, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasts": "145", "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3 }, @@ -823,16 +865,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", + "numforecasts": "180", "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3 }, @@ -844,32 +886,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.5%", - "probability": 0.066, + "probability": 0.0658, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13390000000000002, + "probability": 0.1349, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.2087, + "probability": 0.2091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.2833, + "probability": 0.2852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.3081, + "probability": 0.305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "199", - "numforecasters": "138", + "numforecasts": "203", + "numforecasters": "139", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -880,32 +922,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.6076, + "probability": 0.6114, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2086, + "probability": 0.2072, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.0998, + "probability": 0.09880000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.0528, + "probability": 0.0519, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.031200000000000002, + "probability": 0.030699999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "146", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json index b70a0e1..949dbc7 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.json +++ b/data/elicit-questions.json @@ -26,17 +26,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8205128205128206, + "probability": 0.8212340425531914, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1794871794871794, + "probability": 0.17876595744680857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 234, - "numforecasters": 126, + "numforecasts": 235, + "numforecasters": 127, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -139,26 +139,6 @@ "numforecasters": 87, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5068067226890757, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4931932773109243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 119, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -179,6 +159,26 @@ "numforecasters": 77, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5068067226890757, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4931932773109243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -399,26 +399,6 @@ "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8227500000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1772499999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 80, - "numforecasters": 63, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "How good is your memory?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -439,6 +419,26 @@ "numforecasters": 63, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -659,26 +659,6 @@ "numforecasters": 35, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6111904761904762, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3888095238095238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 42, - "numforecasters": 33, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -699,6 +679,26 @@ "numforecasters": 34, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6111904761904762, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3888095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasters": 33, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -779,26 +779,6 @@ "numforecasters": 30, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -839,6 +819,26 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -880,22 +880,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5493617021276596, + "probability": 0.9027272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45063829787234044, + "probability": 0.09727272727272729, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, @@ -920,22 +920,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "probability": 0.5493617021276596, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "probability": 0.45063829787234044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 47, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1000,22 +1000,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10552631578947368, + "probability": 0.4023809523809524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8944736842105263, + "probability": 0.5976190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 42, "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1039,26 +1039,6 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4023809523809524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5976190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 42, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1079,6 +1059,26 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10552631578947368, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8944736842105263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1139,26 +1139,6 @@ "numforecasters": 24, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5855882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41441176470588237, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1180,22 +1160,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09692307692307692, + "probability": 0.5855882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9030769230769231, + "probability": 0.41441176470588237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 34, "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1219,6 +1199,26 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9030769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1239,66 +1239,6 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19347826086956524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8065217391304348, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1339,6 +1279,46 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1359,6 +1339,46 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1400,22 +1420,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20482758620689656, + "probability": 0.7019047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7951724137931034, + "probability": 0.2980952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1439,26 +1459,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7019047619047619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2980952380952381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1480,18 +1480,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "probability": 0.20482758620689656, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8688, + "probability": 0.7951724137931034, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7363999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1519,26 +1539,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7363999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1759,6 +1759,26 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0695, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9305, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1766,16 +1786,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8738461538461538, + "probability": 0.8364285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12615384615384617, + "probability": 0.1635714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1786,16 +1806,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8185714285714286, + "probability": 0.8006666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18142857142857138, + "probability": 0.19933333333333336, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4704761904761905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5295238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7947619047619048, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1819,6 +1879,26 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6031428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1839,6 +1919,26 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.542, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45799999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1860,42 +1960,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39685714285714285, + "probability": 0.484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6031428571428572, + "probability": 0.516, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4704761904761905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5295238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1939,106 +2019,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.484, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.516, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20523809523809525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7947619047619048, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.542, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45799999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7243478260869566, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2756521739130434, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0695, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9305, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2080,18 +2060,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "probability": 0.7243478260869566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "probability": 0.2756521739130434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6754545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3245454545454546, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2100,22 +2100,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6427777777777777, + "probability": 0.648, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35722222222222233, + "probability": 0.352, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2159,6 +2179,26 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6427777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35722222222222233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2180,22 +2220,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.648, + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.352, + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2219,126 +2259,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - 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"platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4717391304347826, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5282608695652173, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2359,6 +2279,26 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2379,6 +2319,66 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4717391304347826, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5282608695652173, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2399,6 +2399,66 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08388888888888889, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9161111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2440,82 +2500,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08388888888888889, + "probability": 0.0811764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9161111111111111, + "probability": 0.9188235294117647, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6533333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.049, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2539,6 +2579,46 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7770588235294117, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2229411764705883, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42222222222222217, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2579,86 +2659,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6533333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7770588235294117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2229411764705883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0811764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9188235294117647, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2679,6 +2679,26 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.049, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2700,42 +2720,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42222222222222217, + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2760,262 +2760,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, + "probability": 0.5936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, + "probability": 0.4064, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23450000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5852941176470589, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43473684210526314, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5652631578947369, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3059,6 +2819,246 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.294375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.705625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43473684210526314, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5652631578947369, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 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(Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.933125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.926875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.073125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3079,146 +3079,6 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28214285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7178571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3239,6 +3099,166 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0955, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05941176470588236, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9405882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3259,6 +3279,66 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28214285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7178571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3300,42 +3380,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3359,306 +3439,6 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05941176470588236, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9405882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - 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"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - 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"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, + "probability": 0.4446153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, + "probability": 0.5553846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - 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"platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "probability": 0.3728571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3959,6 +3679,26 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3980,18 +3720,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.853125, + "probability": 0.2764285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14687499999999998, + "probability": 0.7235714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.106875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.893125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4019,6 +3779,46 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.320625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4040,23 +3840,203 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4310526315789474, + "probability": 0.2675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5689473684210526, + "probability": 0.7324999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7389473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2610526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 12, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.853125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.14687499999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1336842105263158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -4079,266 +4059,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9235714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5246666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4753333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.696923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.303076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4360,62 +4080,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14333333333333334, + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8566666666666667, + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 29, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6315384615384615, + "probability": 0.4310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3684615384615385, + "probability": 0.5689473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4440,62 +4160,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14166666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8583333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21076923076923082, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4520,22 +4200,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "100 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "probability": 0.6315384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "probability": 0.3684615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4619,6 +4319,46 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9235714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4639,6 +4379,106 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.696923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.303076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4659,6 +4499,46 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8566666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4679,26 +4559,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4720,83 +4580,143 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "probability": 0.1825, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "probability": 0.8175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8583333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -4819,406 +4739,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2809090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7190909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13666666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7783333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22166666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5239,6 +4759,66 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5259,26 +4839,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5299,6 +4859,106 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5319,6 +4979,26 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5359,46 +5039,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5419,6 +5059,66 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5439,6 +5139,26 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23377083333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7662291666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5459,6 +5179,26 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5499,46 +5239,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28428571428571425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7157142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5579,26 +5279,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5619,106 +5299,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23377083333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7662291666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03769230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9623076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5740,38 +5320,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "probability": 0.9325, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "probability": 0.0675, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5780,18 +5360,298 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "probability": 0.2888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "probability": 0.7112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03769230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9623076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.140625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.859375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2475, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7783333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22166666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5799,6 +5659,146 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", diff --git a/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json b/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json index 19469b9..d6f1890 100644 --- a/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json +++ b/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json @@ -423,76 +423,16 @@ "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "50.00% (2 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "60.00% (3 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 4, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 9, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "28.57% (2 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7142857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 7, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "80.00% (4 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -500,10 +440,10 @@ "stars": 2 }, { - "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", + "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -516,33 +456,73 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 3, + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "25.00% (2 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 8, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "100.00% (6 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 6, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 6, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 2, - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { @@ -559,6 +539,26 @@ "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "25.00% (1 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 4, + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", @@ -1043,7 +1043,7 @@ "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 19) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1056,27 +1056,27 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 2 }, { "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "4.17% (1 out of 24) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.041666666666666664, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9583333333333334, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 2 }, { diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json index c34e096..a64c15e 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json @@ -22,12 +22,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ "title": "What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.", + "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 21 million barrels per day", @@ -75,12 +75,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -138,17 +138,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -200,12 +200,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -234,12 +234,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -255,40 +255,6 @@ ], "stars": 4 }, - { - "title": "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "Closed 28 March 2021; resolved as \"B: Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive\" The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 275,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 300,000 but less than 350,000", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 500,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", @@ -297,12 +263,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -335,12 +301,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -504,12 +470,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index 1c19237..abd2c0a 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "48", + "numforecasts": "103", + "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -37,8 +37,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "40", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "70", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -49,12 +49,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "105", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "110", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -104,8 +104,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "36", - "numforecasters": "28", + "numforecasts": "44", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -130,8 +130,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "63", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "73", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -147,17 +147,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -166,8 +166,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "51", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -193,17 +193,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3.1%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "104", - "numforecasters": "70", + "numforecasts": "111", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -219,22 +219,22 @@ }, { "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mank", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -249,7 +249,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -258,8 +258,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "83", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "91", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -280,17 +280,17 @@ }, { "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "58", + "numforecasts": "63", "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3 }, @@ -320,8 +320,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "127", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -347,17 +347,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "219", - "numforecasters": "122", + "numforecasts": "246", + "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -368,7 +368,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -383,22 +383,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "114", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -409,17 +409,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "105", - "numforecasters": "75", + "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -435,12 +435,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -459,8 +459,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "numforecasters": "44", + "numforecasts": "72", + "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -471,27 +471,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", - "numforecasters": "98", + "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -502,17 +502,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "64", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "66", + "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -523,7 +523,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -533,7 +533,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -552,74 +552,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", - "numforecasters": "64", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 115,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "694", - "numforecasters": "161", + "numforecasts": "194", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -630,17 +564,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "147", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -651,22 +585,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2 or more", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "81", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -686,8 +620,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "542", - "numforecasters": "378", + "numforecasts": "552", + "numforecasters": "387", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -703,27 +637,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", - "numforecasters": "270", + "numforecasts": "428", + "numforecasters": "276", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -743,8 +677,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "432", - "numforecasters": "347", + "numforecasts": "452", + "numforecasters": "363", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -764,8 +698,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", - "numforecasters": "196", + "numforecasts": "251", + "numforecasters": "201", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -791,17 +725,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 14,000,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "313", - "numforecasters": "201", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "207", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -836,7 +770,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "26", "stars": 3 }, @@ -872,8 +806,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "192", - "numforecasters": "95", + "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -889,12 +823,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -908,8 +842,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -920,12 +854,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -934,8 +868,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "143", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -960,8 +894,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "568", - "numforecasters": "357", + "numforecasts": "584", + "numforecasters": "367", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -981,8 +915,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "49", + "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1002,8 +936,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "193", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1014,17 +948,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "221", - "numforecasters": "77", + "numforecasts": "227", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1035,17 +969,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "54", + "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1065,8 +999,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "270", - "numforecasters": "120", + "numforecasts": "276", + "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1086,8 +1020,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "194", - "numforecasters": "142", + "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasters": "145", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1117,8 +1051,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "186", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "192", + "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1138,8 +1072,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1155,7 +1089,7 @@ }, { "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1165,7 +1099,7 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1179,7 +1113,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasts": "155", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1191,17 +1125,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "164", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1221,8 +1155,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "118", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1242,8 +1176,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "309", - "numforecasters": "112", + "numforecasts": "321", + "numforecasters": "118", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1254,12 +1188,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1273,8 +1207,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "257", - "numforecasters": "144", + "numforecasts": "261", + "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1290,12 +1224,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1309,8 +1243,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1330,8 +1264,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "104", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1347,17 +1281,17 @@ }, { "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "97", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1368,17 +1302,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "236", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1398,7 +1332,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1419,15 +1353,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "291", - "numforecasters": "155", + "numforecasts": "303", + "numforecasters": "161", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#66050a07140f000f0507120f09081526010909020c1302010b0308124805090b591513040c0305125b37130315120f0908435456250a07140f000f0507120f0908). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5d3e313c2f343b343e3c293432332e1d3a3232393728393a30383329733e3230622e283f37383e29600c28382e29343233786f6d1e313c2f343b343e3c29343233). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1440,8 +1374,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "410", - "numforecasters": "197", + "numforecasts": "415", + "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1462,12 +1396,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1476,46 +1410,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasts": "451", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The infection rate (also known as Rt) \"is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect\" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table \"Compare,\" set to \"States,\" under \"INFECTION RATE.\" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 8 and 14", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 22 and 28", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "29 or more", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "694", - "numforecasters": "128", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea", @@ -1545,17 +1443,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "311", - "numforecasters": "147", + "numforecasts": "320", + "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1575,7 +1473,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", + "numforecasts": "90", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1587,7 +1485,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1597,7 +1495,7 @@ }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1606,8 +1504,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "191", - "numforecasters": "93", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1644,22 +1542,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "225", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "231", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1679,7 +1577,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasts": "113", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1715,7 +1613,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", + "numforecasts": "253", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1736,8 +1634,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "174", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "179", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1748,7 +1646,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1758,12 +1656,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "130", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "134", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1774,17 +1672,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", - "numforecasters": "139", + "numforecasts": "295", + "numforecasters": "144", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1795,17 +1693,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "263", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "268", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1825,7 +1723,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasts": "113", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1851,8 +1749,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "196", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "197", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1877,7 +1775,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasts": "213", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1894,17 +1792,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1913,7 +1811,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "290", + "numforecasts": "294", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1934,7 +1832,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "227", + "numforecasts": "228", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1960,7 +1858,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasts": "115", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1993,17 +1891,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "242", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "255", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2028,7 +1926,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "497", + "numforecasts": "500", "numforecasters": "197", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2045,7 +1943,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only by the EMA", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2055,12 +1953,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "456", - "numforecasters": "217", + "numforecasts": "462", + "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2080,7 +1978,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2101,7 +1999,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "377", + "numforecasts": "378", "numforecasters": "228", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2122,8 +2020,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "300", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "303", + "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2153,7 +2051,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "358", + "numforecasts": "362", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2174,7 +2072,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "255", + "numforecasts": "258", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2196,7 +2094,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2206,12 +2104,12 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "278", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2252,8 +2150,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", - "numforecasters": "209", + "numforecasts": "420", + "numforecasters": "212", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2311,7 +2209,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2321,7 +2219,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2330,7 +2228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "282", + "numforecasts": "286", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2382,8 +2280,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "504", + "numforecasters": "216", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2394,7 +2292,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2409,12 +2307,12 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2423,8 +2321,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "225", - "numforecasters": "83", + "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2435,17 +2333,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "617", - "numforecasters": "202", + "numforecasts": "630", + "numforecasters": "207", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2461,7 +2359,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2476,12 +2374,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "576", - "numforecasters": "253", + "numforecasts": "581", + "numforecasters": "256", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2516,8 +2414,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1893", - "numforecasters": "616", + "numforecasts": "1920", + "numforecasters": "630", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2547,8 +2445,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "525", - "numforecasters": "218", + "numforecasts": "526", + "numforecasters": "219", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2568,8 +2466,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "346", - "numforecasters": "209", + "numforecasts": "356", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2589,8 +2487,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "588", - "numforecasters": "255", + "numforecasts": "599", + "numforecasters": "259", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2610,7 +2508,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasts": "243", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2652,8 +2550,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "339", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "341", + "numforecasters": "168", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2679,17 +2577,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "336", - "numforecasters": "89", + "numforecasts": "346", + "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2730,8 +2628,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "335", - "numforecasters": "174", + "numforecasts": "337", + "numforecasters": "175", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2751,8 +2649,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", - "numforecasters": "107", + "numforecasts": "277", + "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2787,8 +2685,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1498", - "numforecasters": "214", + "numforecasts": "1512", + "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2799,17 +2697,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "305", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "311", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2865,7 +2763,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2886,7 +2784,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasts": "137", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2922,8 +2820,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "582", - "numforecasters": "157", + "numforecasts": "587", + "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2943,7 +2841,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "781", + "numforecasts": "788", "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2955,17 +2853,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2979,8 +2877,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "530", - "numforecasters": "233", + "numforecasts": "539", + "numforecasters": "238", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3006,50 +2904,19 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 million", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "516", + "numforecasts": "522", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 December 2020", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "498", - "numforecasters": "77", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional", @@ -3088,8 +2955,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "161", + "numforecasts": "428", + "numforecasters": "162", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3100,7 +2967,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3110,7 +2977,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3120,7 +2987,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3134,7 +3001,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "391", + "numforecasts": "393", "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3170,8 +3037,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "711", - "numforecasters": "205", + "numforecasts": "716", + "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3191,8 +3058,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1188", - "numforecasters": "457", + "numforecasts": "1199", + "numforecasters": "461", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3212,7 +3079,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "391", + "numforecasts": "392", "numforecasters": "161", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3254,7 +3121,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "744", + "numforecasts": "748", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3290,8 +3157,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "895", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "900", + "numforecasters": "168", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3311,7 +3178,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "211", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3332,7 +3199,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", + "numforecasts": "330", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3353,8 +3220,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "662", - "numforecasters": "186", + "numforecasts": "666", + "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3389,8 +3256,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "477", - "numforecasters": "97", + "numforecasts": "478", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3420,8 +3287,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "340", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "350", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3432,17 +3299,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 25,000", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3456,8 +3323,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "379", - "numforecasters": "121", + "numforecasts": "382", + "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3473,22 +3340,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "315", - "numforecasters": "109", + "numforecasts": "319", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3504,12 +3371,12 @@ }, { "name": "1 or 2", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or 4", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3523,8 +3390,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "289", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3554,8 +3421,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "911", - "numforecasters": "311", + "numforecasts": "919", + "numforecasters": "318", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3596,8 +3463,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "681", - "numforecasters": "143", + "numforecasts": "685", + "numforecasters": "144", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3608,12 +3475,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, a firm", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3623,12 +3490,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", - "numforecasters": "95", + "numforecasts": "254", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3649,22 +3516,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "263", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3699,7 +3566,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasts": "241", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3735,8 +3602,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1220", - "numforecasters": "192", + "numforecasts": "1231", + "numforecasters": "199", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3757,17 +3624,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2255", - "numforecasters": "907", + "numforecasts": "2280", + "numforecasters": "922", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3787,8 +3654,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "246", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3799,17 +3666,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1127", - "numforecasters": "478", + "numforecasts": "1140", + "numforecasters": "485", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3844,7 +3711,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasts": "302", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3911,8 +3778,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "399", - "numforecasters": "219", + "numforecasts": "401", + "numforecasters": "221", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3968,7 +3835,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "288", + "numforecasts": "290", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3990,12 +3857,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4004,8 +3871,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "444", - "numforecasters": "149", + "numforecasts": "447", + "numforecasters": "151", "stars": 3 }, { diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index 42e088c..8db3156 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9047619047619047, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -44,12 +44,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, more than 121", - "probability": 0.23958333333333337, + "probability": 0.24742268041237112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, not more than 121", - "probability": 0.7604166666666667, + "probability": 0.7525773195876287, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,22 +146,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.712871287128713, + "probability": 0.7474747474747475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.08080808080808081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.17821782178217824, + "probability": 0.1414141414141414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.030303030303030304, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -194,17 +194,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.7142857142857143, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.08571428571428572, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -257,32 +257,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.010416666666666668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.017094017094017092, + "probability": 0.04166666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.2222222222222222, + "probability": 0.14583333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.28205128205128205, + "probability": 0.31250000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.47008547008547, + "probability": 0.48958333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -296,27 +296,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.49504950495049505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12871287128712872, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -349,22 +349,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.08888888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.07777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.8019801980198019, + "probability": 0.7777777777777779, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -421,12 +421,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44696969696969696, + "probability": 0.4296875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5530303030303031, + "probability": 0.5703125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -513,7 +513,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.9313725490196079, + "probability": 0.8137254901960784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -533,7 +533,7 @@ }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.1568627450980392, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -547,27 +547,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.3300970873786408, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.34951456310679613, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.1650485436893204, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -605,17 +605,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2604166666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.23958333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -629,32 +629,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.32291666666666674, + "probability": 0.2767857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.46875, + "probability": 0.4017857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.04166666666666667, + "probability": 0.03571428571428572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.05208333333333334, + "probability": 0.044642857142857144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.10416666666666669, + "probability": 0.23214285714285715, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.010416666666666668, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -668,27 +668,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.03296703296703297, + "probability": 0.0707070707070707, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.3296703296703297, + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.18681318681318682, + "probability": 0.17171717171717174, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.2087912087912088, + "probability": 0.19191919191919193, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.2417582417582418, + "probability": 0.23232323232323235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -702,7 +702,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -712,12 +712,12 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -731,22 +731,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.8712871287128712, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -798,12 +798,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9509803921568627, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04901960784313725, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -817,12 +817,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json index 1e8f11f..47a839f 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json @@ -871,37 +871,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.35524640286087616, + "probability": 0.403238358456856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.034158307967391936, + "probability": 0.034895627174151005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.0807378188320173, + "probability": 0.08248057332072055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008793227793586043, + "probability": 0.008983032737900258, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017414039355925302, + "probability": 0.01778992757897894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.42291238435818584, + "probability": 0.38282122638309113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.0807378188320173, + "probability": 0.06979125434830201, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1806,57 +1806,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.44229638394840987, + "probability": 0.4403774895962038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.49144042660934434, + "probability": 0.4893083217735598, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.004381865568121431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.017344956233270977, + "probability": 0.017269705474360936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.004381865568121431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, + "probability": 0.0017579939704439273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, + "probability": 0.0017579939704439273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Womens Equality Party", - "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, + "probability": 0.0017579939704439273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "North East Party", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.004381865568121431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Lee (Ind)", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.008720346328637699, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)", - "probability": 0.026017434349906464, + "probability": 0.0259045582115414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1869,22 +1869,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 5%", - "probability": 0.5433431584928442, + "probability": 0.5772727913500711, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5-10%", - "probability": 0.3024610248943499, + "probability": 0.278867163821419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10-20%", - "probability": 0.10082034163144997, + "probability": 0.10070203137995686, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 20%", - "probability": 0.05337547498135587, + "probability": 0.04315801344855294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1925,92 +1925,92 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan (Lab)", - "probability": 0.901479561045341, + "probability": 0.8759566247820383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey (Cons)", - "probability": 0.044215426089366724, + "probability": 0.035038264991281536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sian Berry (Green)", - "probability": 0.004619522128739807, + "probability": 0.004532312884444377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten (Heritage)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London (Ind)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)", - "probability": 0.004619522128739807, + "probability": 0.004532312884444377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose (Ind)", - "probability": 0.018206351919151004, + "probability": 0.05358793469254823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid (WEP)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nims Obunge (Ind)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "DrillMinister", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Winston McKenzie", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kam Balayev (Renew)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox (Reclaim)", - "probability": 0.004619522128739807, + "probability": 0.004532312884444377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh (Ind)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2278,172 +2278,177 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jackson Carlaw", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Ross", - "probability": 0.04879191719970918, + "probability": 0.04861506274835883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michelle Ballantyne", - "probability": 0.003304631842211379, + "probability": 0.0032926536522792835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Monica Lennon", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Galloway", + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alex Salmond", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.01620502091611961, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anas Sarwar", - "probability": 0.02439595859985459, + "probability": 0.04861506274835883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Murray", - "probability": 0.0016556139568763592, + "probability": 0.0016496129076289422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angus Robertson", - "probability": 0.13824376539917602, + "probability": 0.16529121334442004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Coburn", - "probability": 0.0016556139568763592, + "probability": 0.0016496129076289422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Derek Mackay", - "probability": 0.02439595859985459, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Humza Yousaf", - "probability": 0.0638048147996197, + "probability": 0.07513236970200911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeane Freeman", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Swinney", - "probability": 0.11849465605643658, + "probability": 0.11806515238887144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keith Brown", - "probability": 0.0638048147996197, + "probability": 0.0635735435940077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mhairi Black", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.03178677179700385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Matheson", - "probability": 0.012380038692463523, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Findlay", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Murrell", - "probability": 0.012380038692463523, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Wishart", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Philippa Whitford", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shona Robison", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.01620502091611961, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stewart Hosie", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.01620502091611961, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stuart Campbell", - "probability": 0.0016556139568763592, + "probability": 0.0016496129076289422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tommy Sheppard", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Willie Rennie", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Leonard", - "probability": 0.004126679564154508, + "probability": 0.004111721724985573, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Forbes", - "probability": 0.11849465605643658, + "probability": 0.09182845185801113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ash Denham", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley-Anne Somerville", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Russell", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joanna Cherry", - "probability": 0.07540569021773237, + "probability": 0.0635735435940077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Wilson", - "probability": 0.012380038692463523, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2512,27 +2517,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.02666987448435308, + "probability": 0.026276647470071912, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3627102929872019, + "probability": 0.3970693395477533, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.5926638774300685, + "probability": 0.5164196612615289, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.008977977549188167, + "probability": 0.008845604098836089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.008977977549188167, + "probability": 0.008845604098836089, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alba", + "probability": 0.04254314352297357, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index 928b1d5..0534d6b 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -26,18 +26,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 269, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -57,7 +83,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -67,33 +93,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -182,6 +204,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 147, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/", @@ -197,6 +286,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", + "numforecasts": 215, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", @@ -214,7 +318,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", @@ -224,18 +328,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", + "numforecasts": 668, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "numforecasts": 504, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -253,6 +409,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", + "numforecasts": 72, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", @@ -280,18 +466,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", + "numforecasts": 125, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -309,6 +521,133 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", + "numforecasts": 116, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 236, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 248, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", @@ -326,7 +665,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -336,18 +675,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -357,17 +737,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -376,6 +756,122 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", + "numforecasts": 124, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", + "numforecasts": 189, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 130, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", @@ -417,6 +913,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", + "numforecasts": 226, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", + "numforecasts": 181, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/", @@ -444,18 +970,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -474,29 +1026,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 363, + "options": [], + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 214, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will PHP die?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -529,6 +1100,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", @@ -545,29 +1168,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -597,27 +1235,105 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 373, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "numforecasts": 387, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 243, + "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -627,18 +1343,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -656,21 +1387,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", @@ -686,6 +1402,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", + "numforecasts": 44, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", @@ -728,18 +1459,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -758,33 +1489,74 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" } }, { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" } }, { @@ -802,6 +1574,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 368, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", @@ -832,47 +1656,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", @@ -900,29 +1683,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 656, + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -951,47 +1764,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", @@ -1007,118 +1779,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", @@ -1135,29 +1795,272 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 260, + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "numforecasts": 324, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1201,6 +2104,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", + "numforecasts": 279, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -1242,32 +2171,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 279, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", @@ -1313,6 +2216,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", @@ -1329,18 +2247,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "numforecasts": 153, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1384,6 +2313,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", @@ -1399,6 +2343,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", + "numforecasts": 691, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -1414,28 +2399,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -1459,6 +2429,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 75, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -1500,6 +2511,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", @@ -1547,7 +2573,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", @@ -1562,7 +2588,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "numforecasts": 269, + "numforecasts": 271, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -1578,17 +2604,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -1598,29 +2624,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" } }, { @@ -1630,17 +2656,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -1679,21 +2705,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", @@ -1711,7 +2722,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", @@ -1720,6 +2731,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 154, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", @@ -1735,21 +2761,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", - "numforecasts": 158, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/", @@ -1766,18 +2777,63 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will PHP die?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 276, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", + "numforecasts": 158, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "numforecasts": 134, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1807,59 +2863,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 1163, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1893,18 +2919,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 98, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", + "numforecasts": 569, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1924,7 +2961,7 @@ } ], "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 972, + "numforecasts": 973, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", @@ -1933,28 +2970,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -1963,21 +2985,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", - "numforecasts": 403, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -2019,6 +3026,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", @@ -2034,6 +3056,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", @@ -2055,7 +3092,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -2096,7 +3133,7 @@ } ], "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 382, + "numforecasts": 383, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", @@ -2202,6 +3239,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1357, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", + "numforecasts": 286, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", @@ -2228,21 +3317,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", @@ -2285,18 +3359,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2314,6 +3399,51 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", + "numforecasts": 403, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 43, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 196, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", @@ -2331,7 +3461,7 @@ } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -2341,33 +3471,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", + "numforecasts": 302, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 138, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2493,13 +3619,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", + "numforecasts": 123, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -2525,7 +3666,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 208, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -2564,32 +3705,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 287, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/", @@ -2616,6 +3731,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 292, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", @@ -2631,6 +3772,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 124, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", @@ -2657,6 +3813,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 120, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", @@ -2683,6 +3880,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", + "numforecasts": 67, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", @@ -2700,7 +3949,7 @@ } ], "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "numforecasts": 462, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", @@ -2709,32 +3958,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 324, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", @@ -2757,17 +3980,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 589, + "numforecasts": 592, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -2829,44 +4052,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2921,6 +4129,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", @@ -2937,55 +4160,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "options": [], + "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 220, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -3030,18 +4257,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 482, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3059,13 +4286,106 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 159, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 233, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 183, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", + "numforecasts": 239, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 234, + "numforecasts": 236, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -3074,21 +4394,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 673, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", @@ -3116,18 +4421,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 263, + "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3156,21 +4461,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", @@ -3197,47 +4487,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", @@ -3268,32 +4517,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 116, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -3320,21 +4543,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", @@ -3350,62 +4558,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 46, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", @@ -3421,6 +4573,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", @@ -3436,21 +4618,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", @@ -3507,32 +4674,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", @@ -3616,29 +4757,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1349, + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 721, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3723,21 +4853,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", @@ -3816,6 +4931,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", + "numforecasts": 2849, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", @@ -3831,58 +4972,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2808, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -3924,32 +5013,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/", @@ -3976,58 +5039,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", @@ -4045,7 +5056,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 144, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -4054,62 +5065,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", @@ -4125,32 +5080,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/", @@ -4239,7 +5168,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1262, + "numforecasts": 1266, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", @@ -4357,33 +5286,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", + "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 983, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", + "numforecasts": 264, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4401,84 +5326,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", - "numforecasts": 387, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", - "numforecasts": 234, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", @@ -4509,21 +5356,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/", @@ -4531,17 +5363,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -4565,32 +5397,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", @@ -4632,21 +5438,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 226, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", @@ -4673,21 +5464,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", @@ -4755,28 +5531,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 214, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -4832,7 +5593,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 181, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -4979,6 +5740,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", @@ -5015,7 +5791,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -5127,7 +5903,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -5246,7 +6022,7 @@ } ], "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -5509,21 +6285,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", @@ -5540,18 +6301,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5625,21 +6386,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -5718,36 +6464,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -5800,17 +6516,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 519, + "numforecasts": 526, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", @@ -6039,21 +6755,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", @@ -6095,6 +6796,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", @@ -6258,7 +6974,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6407,7 +7123,7 @@ } ], "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -6680,17 +7396,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 221, + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -6848,6 +7564,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", + "numforecasts": 303, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", @@ -6874,32 +7616,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "numforecasts": 302, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", @@ -6973,7 +7689,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -6982,47 +7698,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 564, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/", @@ -7040,7 +7715,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 357, + "numforecasts": 358, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -7050,15 +7725,15 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" @@ -7070,7 +7745,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -7161,28 +7836,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7191,6 +7851,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", @@ -7238,7 +7913,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7340,21 +8015,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 366, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -7411,21 +8071,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", @@ -7443,7 +8088,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 721, + "numforecasts": 722, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -7452,6 +8097,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", @@ -7594,6 +8254,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/", @@ -7624,32 +8310,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/", @@ -7848,32 +8508,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 138, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/", @@ -8083,6 +8717,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", + "numforecasts": 155, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/", @@ -8113,21 +8762,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", @@ -8188,32 +8822,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 219, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", @@ -8241,44 +8849,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 492, + "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -8307,32 +8900,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", @@ -8348,32 +8915,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 537, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -8401,44 +8942,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1163, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 538, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8499,7 +9025,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 252, + "numforecasts": 268, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -8575,32 +9101,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -8657,36 +9157,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 156, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", @@ -8713,6 +9183,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", @@ -8902,7 +9387,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", @@ -8926,21 +9411,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/", @@ -8948,17 +9418,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 127, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -8967,21 +9437,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "numforecasts": 213, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -9008,21 +9463,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -9064,21 +9504,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", @@ -9096,7 +9521,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 234, + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -9105,6 +9530,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", @@ -9182,7 +9622,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", @@ -9273,32 +9713,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 146, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/", @@ -9422,32 +9836,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", - "numforecasts": 114, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", @@ -9489,32 +9877,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", @@ -9541,21 +9903,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", @@ -9573,7 +9920,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", @@ -9582,6 +9929,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -9603,7 +9965,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9657,21 +10019,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", @@ -9704,7 +10051,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 296, + "numforecasts": 297, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -9739,6 +10086,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", @@ -9756,7 +10118,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1262, + "numforecasts": 1264, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", @@ -9890,7 +10252,7 @@ } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 270, + "numforecasts": 271, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -9931,7 +10293,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -10310,21 +10672,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", @@ -10441,21 +10788,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", @@ -10497,21 +10829,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", @@ -10687,21 +11004,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/", @@ -10717,6 +11019,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/", @@ -10911,32 +11228,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", @@ -10978,28 +11269,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 479, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -11064,21 +11340,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", @@ -11240,32 +11501,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/", @@ -11460,6 +11695,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/", @@ -11475,21 +11725,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/", @@ -11505,32 +11740,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 689, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/", @@ -11567,7 +11776,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -11684,21 +11893,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/", @@ -12184,32 +12378,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 299, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/", @@ -12296,21 +12464,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/", @@ -12572,32 +12725,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:48:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/", @@ -12679,7 +12806,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -12703,6 +12830,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -12729,21 +12871,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/", @@ -12884,7 +13011,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -12914,7 +13041,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 132, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", @@ -13011,7 +13138,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 231, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -13041,7 +13168,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -13138,7 +13265,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 459, + "numforecasts": 461, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", @@ -13179,7 +13306,7 @@ } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 575, + "numforecasts": 583, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -13897,21 +14024,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", @@ -13978,7 +14090,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 226, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -14254,7 +14366,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -14334,21 +14446,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/", @@ -14364,21 +14461,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/", @@ -14599,28 +14681,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -14676,7 +14743,7 @@ } ], "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.\nWill Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -14795,7 +14862,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -14804,32 +14871,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -14856,6 +14897,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/", @@ -14878,17 +14945,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n", - "numforecasts": 471, + "numforecasts": 476, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -15138,7 +15205,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 366, + "numforecasts": 367, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -15265,7 +15332,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 281, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -15317,7 +15384,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [\"A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology\".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)\nThe respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.\nAn individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.\nThe design calls for twelve pumping stations to be spaced evenly along an equatorial circle. Each station has its own independent glucose-metabolizing powerplant, glucose tank, environmental glucose sensors, and glucose sorting rotors. Each station alone can generate sufficient energy to power the entire respirocyte, and has an array of 3-stage molecular sorting rotor assemblies for pumping O2, CO2, and H2O from the ambient medium into an interior chamber, and vice versa. The number of rotor sorters in each array is determined both by performance requirements and by the anticipated concentration of each target molecule in the bloodstream.\nThe equatorial pumping station network occupies ~50% of respirocyte surface. On the remaining surface, a universal \"bar code\" consisting of concentric circular patterns of shallow rounded ridges is embossed on each side, centered on the \"north pole\" and \"south pole\" of the device. This coding permits easy product identification by an attending physician with a small blood sample and access to an electron microscope, and may also allow rapid reading by other more sophisticated medical nanorobots which might be deployed in the future.\nThe promise of artificial mechanical red cells is that it gives physicians the ability to precisely control saturation curve profiles independently for oxygen and carbon dioxide, either to maximize gas transport efficiency or to meet specialized demand functions imposed by emergency situations, unusual activities, or specific medical treatments.\nRespirocytes are an example of molecular nanotechnology, a field of technology still in the very earliest, purely hypothetical phase of development. Current technology is not sufficient to build a respirocyte due to considerations of power, atomic-scale manipulation, immune reaction or toxicity, computation and communication. Creation of this kind of device would require multiple technological breakthroughs. For further information on respirocytes, see e.g. [this essay by Freitas.](http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?\nResolves positively upon the publication of an article in a respectable scientific journal indicating that such devices have been successfully used in a living mammal to meaningfully augment and or replace (partially or totally) the existing supply of red blood cells. A meaningful augmentation is an augmentation resulting in a non-trivial increase in overall performance of the existing red cell population. These respirocytes will need to be perform at least some gas transport function, and be principally the product of nanotechnology techniques, including (but not limited to) those outlined by [Freitas' article](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html). This therefore excludes transfusions of modified red blood cells from existing organisms. Finally, the mammal needs to survive at least 7 days after the introduction of the respirocytes.\n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -15673,32 +15740,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 234, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/", @@ -15740,6 +15781,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/", @@ -15945,32 +16012,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 651, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -15997,13 +16038,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 652, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16294,7 +16361,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -16645,33 +16712,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 195, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -16706,6 +16747,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 198, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", @@ -16738,7 +16805,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 231, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -16768,7 +16835,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -16833,32 +16900,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 700, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", @@ -16900,6 +16941,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", + "numforecasts": 702, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/", @@ -16945,32 +17012,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T19:44:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin),\nan American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world.\nChauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added.\nSome have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From [a Medium post](https://medium.com/@gavrilodavid/why-derek-chauvin-may-get-off-his-murder-charge-2e2ad8d0911),\nThere are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of a murder charge. [...]\n1-- \nGeorge Floyd was experiencing cardiopulmonary and psychological distress minutes before he was placed on the ground, let alone had a knee to his neck.\n2-- \nThe Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) allows the use of neck restraint on suspects who actively resist arrest, and George Floyd actively resisted arrest on two occasions, including immediately prior to neck restraint being used.\n3-- \nThe officers were recorded on their body cams assessing George Floyd as suffering from “excited delirium syndrome” (ExDS), a condition which the MPD considers an extreme threat to both the officers and the suspect. A white paper used by the MPD acknowledges that ExDS suspects may die irrespective of force involved. The officers’ response to this situation was in line with MPD guidelines for ExDS.\n4-- \nRestraining the suspect on his or her abdomen (prone restraint) is a common tactic in ExDS situations, and the white paper used by the MPD instructs the officers to control the suspect until paramedics arrive.\n5-- \nFloyd’s autopsy revealed a potentially lethal concoction of drugs — not just a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl, but also methamphetamine. Together with his history of drug abuse and two serious heart conditions, Floyd’s condition was exceptionally and unusually fragile.\n6-- \nChauvin’s neck restraint is unlikely to have exerted a dangerous amount of force to Floyd’s neck. Floyd is shown on video able to lift his head and neck, and a robust study on double-knee restraints showed a median force exertion of approximately approximately 105lbs.\nThis question resolves positively if Derek Chauvin is acquitted of ALL murder charges OR all murder charges against him are dropped. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If he dies before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\nOnly convictions for offences actually called \"murder\" trigger negative resolution ; conviction for other offences such as manslaughter does not.\n", - "numforecasts": 613, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/", @@ -17165,21 +17206,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nBefore this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet in a public outdoor place today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 233, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T11:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", @@ -17391,7 +17417,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -17417,7 +17443,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -18597,21 +18623,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", @@ -18642,6 +18653,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/", @@ -18924,7 +18950,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -19086,21 +19112,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3802/what-will-be-the-doubling-time-of-covid-19-cases-during-the-peak-growth-period-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 7 March 2020, more than 102,000 cases have been confirmed, of which 7,100 were classified as serious. 96 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.\nThis question asks what will be [the doubling time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time) of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?\nThe resolution will be based on the following equation that assumes exponential growth: \nThis question will follow as much as possible the resolution criteria described in [the question about the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/). In short, this question will resolve at the end of March 2021 and will use the best available data for the whole world as made available by WHO.\nThe will be the 20th of January, because [the first WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4) is for that day and it estimates 282 cases. The will be the last day of the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases. The time unit of and will be days.\nThe will be the total cumulative number of cases globally at the end of the month with the biggest increase. In other words, the number will be counted from the beginning of the outbreak and not during that single month.\nFor example, assume that February will be the month with the biggest growth then , will be the 29th February and .\nThis may differ from the official estimates because COVID-19 cases did not follow the exponential growth in February.\nThis question will resolve ambiguous if the question \"[Which month of 2020 will see the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\" will resolve ambiguous.\nYou may also want to take a look at: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 379, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/", @@ -19122,7 +19133,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -20002,7 +20013,7 @@ } ], "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", @@ -20432,12 +20443,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -21676,7 +21687,7 @@ } ], "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n", - "numforecasts": 198, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", @@ -21752,21 +21763,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5129/if-california-passes-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-what-will-ubers-adjusted-ebitda-for-the-mobility-segment-be-in-q1-2021/", @@ -21782,6 +21778,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T19:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -22120,7 +22131,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -22556,7 +22567,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 173, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -22798,7 +22809,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5109, + "numforecasts": 5110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -22813,7 +22824,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z", @@ -23096,7 +23107,7 @@ } ], "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "numforecasts": 462, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -23637,7 +23648,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -23827,7 +23838,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -24114,7 +24125,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", @@ -24293,7 +24304,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-17T00:00:00Z", @@ -24678,6 +24689,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 429, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", @@ -24704,32 +24741,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 427, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/", @@ -26112,7 +26123,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 181, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -26250,7 +26261,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", @@ -26561,6 +26572,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", + "numforecasts": 1372, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/", @@ -26587,32 +26624,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1368, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/", @@ -26776,7 +26787,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -26882,21 +26893,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n", - "numforecasts": 798, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will there be a mile-high building?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/", @@ -26912,6 +26908,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n", + "numforecasts": 798, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/", @@ -27858,7 +27869,7 @@ } ], "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -28102,32 +28113,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:43:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 283, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/", @@ -28292,6 +28277,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/", @@ -28309,7 +28309,7 @@ } ], "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n", - "numforecasts": 336, + "numforecasts": 338, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", @@ -28318,21 +28318,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n", - "numforecasts": 79, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/", diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.csv b/data/metaforecasts.csv index e75396c..7b0b028 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.csv +++ b/data/metaforecasts.csv @@ -1,4 +1,8 @@ "title","description","optionsstringforsearch" +"Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?","Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. *** +","Yes, No" +"Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?","Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean. +","Yes, No" "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: ""Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.""Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%" "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. @@ -64,8 +68,8 @@ "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",,"Yes, No" "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",,"Yes, No" "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",,"Yes, No" -"How vivid is your visual imagination?",,"Yes, No" "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",,"Yes, No" +"How vivid is your visual imagination?",,"Yes, No" "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",,"Yes, No" "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",,"Yes, No" "How vivid is your sound imagination?",,"Yes, No" @@ -77,8 +81,8 @@ "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",,"Yes, No" "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",,"Yes, No" "How frequently do you think in words?",,"Yes, No" -"Do you have an internal monologue?",,"Yes, No" "How good is your memory?",,"Yes, No" +"Do you have an internal monologue?",,"Yes, No" "How vivid is your touch imagination?",,"Yes, No" "How much control do you have over your mind?",,"Yes, No" "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",,"Yes, No" @@ -90,50 +94,50 @@ "Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",,"Yes, No" "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ",,"Yes, No" "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",,"Yes, No" -"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",,"Yes, No" "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",,"Yes, No" +"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",,"Yes, No" "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No" "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",,"Yes, No" "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" "The Pope will be assassinated.",,"Yes, No" -"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" """There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",,"Yes, No" "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",,"Yes, No" +"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",,"Yes, No" "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",,"Yes, No" -"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",,"Yes, No" -"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No" "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No" +"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",,"Yes, No" "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",,"Yes, No" "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",,"Yes, No" "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",,"Yes, No" -"Trump wins Nobel",,"Yes, No" -"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",,"Yes, No" "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" +"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",,"Yes, No" "...be an environmental disaster.",,"Yes, No" +"Trump wins Nobel",,"Yes, No" "California will secede from the United States before 2021",,"Yes, No" "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",,"Yes, No" "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No" -"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",,"Yes, No" "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",,"Yes, No" -"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",,"Yes, No" +"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",,"Yes, No" "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",,"Yes, No" +"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",,"Yes, No" "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No" -"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",,"Yes, No" -"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No" -"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",,"Yes, No" "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",,"Yes, No" "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No" +"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",,"Yes, No" +"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",,"Yes, No" "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",,"Yes, No" +"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No" +"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No" "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",,"Yes, No" "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",,"Yes, No" -"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No" -"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No" "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",,"Yes, No" +"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No" "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No" -"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No" -"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",,"Yes, No" +"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No" "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",,"Yes, No" +"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",,"Yes, No" "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No" "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",,"Yes, No" "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",,"Yes, No" @@ -145,209 +149,209 @@ "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",,"Yes, No" "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",,"Yes, No" "Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No" +"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No" "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",,"Yes, No" "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",,"Yes, No" -"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No" -"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",,"Yes, No" -"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",,"Yes, No" -"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",,"Yes, No" "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No" +"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""",,"Yes, No" +"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No" +"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",,"Yes, No" +"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",,"Yes, No" +"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",,"Yes, No" +"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",,"Yes, No" +"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",,"Yes, No" "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",,"Yes, No" "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",,"Yes, No" -"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",,"Yes, No" -"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""",,"Yes, No" -"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",,"Yes, No" -"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No" "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",,"Yes, No" "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",,"Yes, No" -"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No" -"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",,"Yes, No" +"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",,"Yes, No" +"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No" +"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No" "The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",,"Yes, No" "What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",,"Yes, No" +"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",,"Yes, No" "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",,"Yes, No" -"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No" +"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No" "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",,"Yes, No" -"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No" -"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",,"Yes, No" -"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",,"Yes, No" -"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",,"Yes, No" -"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",,"Yes, No" -"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No" "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",,"Yes, No" +"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No" "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No" +"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",,"Yes, No" +"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",,"Yes, No" +"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",,"Yes, No" "aliens invade earth in 2023",,"Yes, No" +"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No" +"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No" "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",,"Yes, No" "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",,"Yes, No" -"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No" -"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No" -"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No" -"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",,"Yes, No" +"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No" +"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No" +"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No" "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" +"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No" +"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No" "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",,"Yes, No" "US presidents term limits abolished",,"Yes, No" -"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No" -"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No" -"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No" -"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No" "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",,"Yes, No" +"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",,"Yes, No" "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",,"Yes, No" -"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No" -"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",,"Yes, No" -"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",,"Yes, No" -"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",,"Yes, No" -"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",,"Yes, No" -"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No" -"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",,"Yes, No" "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",,"Yes, No" -"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No" -"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No" -"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No" -"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No" -"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No" -"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No" -"C still widely in use in the 2020s",,"Yes, No" -"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",,"Yes, No" +"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",,"Yes, No" +"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",,"Yes, No" "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",,"Yes, No" "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",,"Yes, No" +"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No" +"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",,"Yes, No" +"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",,"Yes, No" +"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",,"Yes, No" +"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No" +"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",,"Yes, No" +"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No" +"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No" +"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No" +"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No" +"C still widely in use in the 2020s",,"Yes, No" +"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No" "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No" -"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No" -"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No" -"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No" -"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No" -"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",,"Yes, No" "The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",,"Yes, No" +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No" +"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",,"Yes, No" +"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No" +"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No" +"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",,"Yes, No" +"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No" "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No" +"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No" +"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No" +"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No" "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ",,"Yes, No" "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",,"Yes, No" -"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",,"Yes, No" -"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No" +"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No" +"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No" """by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",,"Yes, No" -"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No" -"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" -"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No" -"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No" -"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No" -"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No" -"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No" -"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No" -"ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No" -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",,"Yes, No" -"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No" -"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No" -"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No" -"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No" "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No" -"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" -"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",,"Yes, No" -"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" -"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No" -"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No" "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",,"Yes, No" "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",,"Yes, No" -"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No" -"10 million",,"Yes, No" -"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" +"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No" +"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No" "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No" -"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No" -"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",,"Yes, No" +"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No" +"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No" +"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",,"Yes, No" +"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No" "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",,"Yes, No" -"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No" +"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No" "Trump dies of COVID-19",,"Yes, No" +"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No" +"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",,"Yes, No" -"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No" +"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No" +"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No" +"ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No" +"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",,"Yes, No" +"10 million",,"Yes, No" +"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No" +"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No" +"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",,"Yes, No" "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No" -"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No" -"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",,"Yes, No" -"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",,"Yes, No" -"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No" -"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No" -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No" -"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No" -"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No" -"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No" -"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No" -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No" """Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No" -"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No" -"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No" -"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No" -"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No" -"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No" -"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No" -"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",,"Yes, No" -"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" "100 million",,"Yes, No" +"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No" +"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No" +"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No" +"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No" +"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" +"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No" +"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No" "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No" "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",,"Yes, No" "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",,"Yes, No" "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No" +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No" +"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",,"Yes, No" "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No" +"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No" +"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No" +"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" +"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No" +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No" +"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No" "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No" -"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No" "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No" -"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No" -"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No" -"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",,"Yes, No" -"50 million",,"Yes, No" +"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No" +"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No" +"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",,"Yes, No" +"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No" +"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No" +"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No" +"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",,"Yes, No" """there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",,"Yes, No" -"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No" -"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No" -"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" -"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",,"Yes, No" -"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No" -"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No" -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"Trump wins the 2020 election.",,"Yes, No" -"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No" -"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No" -"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No" -"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No" -"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No" -"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No" -"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No" -"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",,"Yes, No" -"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No" -"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No" -"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No" -"Trump will run for president in 2024",,"Yes, No" "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No" +"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No" +"50 million",,"Yes, No" +"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No" "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",,"Yes, No" -"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No" "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",,"Yes, No" +"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",,"Yes, No" +"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No" +"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No" +"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No" """At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",,"Yes, No" +"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No" "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",,"Yes, No" "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",,"Yes, No" -"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No" -"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No" "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",,"Yes, No" +"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No" +"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" +"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No" "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",,"Yes, No" +"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No" "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No" +"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No" "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",,"Yes, No" "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",,"Yes, No" -"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No" "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No" -"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No" "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No" -"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No" -"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No" -"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No" -"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",,"Yes, No" -"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No" "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No" -"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No" -"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No" -"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No" +"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No" +"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No" +"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No" +"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No" +"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No" +"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No" +"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No" +"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No" +"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No" +"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No" +"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No" +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No" +"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No" +"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",,"Yes, No" +"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No" +"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No" +"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No" +"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",,"Yes, No" +"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No" +"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No" +"Trump will run for president in 2024",,"Yes, No" +"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",,"Yes, No" +"Trump wins the 2020 election.",,"Yes, No" +"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",,"Yes, No" "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No" "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",,"Yes, No" "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No" @@ -931,13 +935,13 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Federal Communications Commission v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","18.92% (7 out of 37) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","50.00% (2 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","28.57% (2 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","80.00% (4 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","60.00% (3 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.00% (2 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (6 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.00% (1 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" @@ -962,8 +966,8 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 19) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" -"In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","4.17% (1 out of 24) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" +"In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No" "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","","" @@ -1222,14 +1226,13 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","Yes, No" "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%","Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ","Yes, No" "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?","Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from EV-volumes.com whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV & PHEV share for 2020 was 4.2%.","Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%" -"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","Less than 21 million barrels per day, Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day, Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 30 million barrels per day" +"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","Less than 21 million barrels per day, Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day, Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 30 million barrels per day" "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory ""carbon pricing mechanism"" become law before 1 January 2023?","President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a ""carbon pricing mechanism"" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System, the California Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.","Yes, No" "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" "How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","Fewer than 200 million, Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive, More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million, Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive, More than 1.6 billion" "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",,"Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","Before 1 February 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021, Not before 1 August 2021" "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021" -"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","Closed 28 March 2021; resolved as ""B: Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"" The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.","Less than 275,000, Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but less than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive, More than 500,000" "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?",,"10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" "What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","The Games will begin, The Games will be postponed again by more than a day, The Games will be cancelled" @@ -1290,10 +1293,6 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" -"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  -","Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. @@ -1395,14 +1394,11 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#66050a07140f000f0507120f09081526010909020c1302010b0308124805090b591513040c0305125b37130315120f0908435456250a07140f000f0507120f0908). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5d3e313c2f343b343e3c293432332e1d3a3232393728393a30383329733e3230622e283f37383e29600c28382e29343233786f6d1e313c2f343b343e3c29343233). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","Yes, No" "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" -"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Yes, No" @@ -1590,9 +1586,6 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" -"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Yes, No" @@ -1817,10 +1810,10 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol "Next UK General Election: Most Seats",,"Reform UK, Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Liberal Democrats" "Next UK General Election: Year of next election",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later" "Next UK General Election: Overall Majority",,"Conservative Majoirity, Labour Majority, No Overall Majority" -"Next Scottish First Minister: Next Scottish First Minister",,"Jackson Carlaw, Douglas Ross, Michelle Ballantyne, Monica Lennon, Alex Salmond, Anas Sarwar, Andy Murray, Angus Robertson, David Coburn, Derek Mackay, Humza Yousaf, Jeane Freeman, John Swinney, Keith Brown, Mhairi Black, Michael Matheson, Neil Findlay, Peter Murrell, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Ruth Davidson, Shona Robison, Stewart Hosie, Stuart Campbell, Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh, Tommy Sheppard, Willie Rennie, Richard Leonard, Kate Forbes, Ash Denham, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Michael Russell, Joanna Cherry, Andrew Wilson" +"Next Scottish First Minister: Next Scottish First Minister",,"Jackson Carlaw, Douglas Ross, Michelle Ballantyne, Monica Lennon, George Galloway, Alex Salmond, Anas Sarwar, Andy Murray, Angus Robertson, David Coburn, Derek Mackay, Humza Yousaf, Jeane Freeman, John Swinney, Keith Brown, Mhairi Black, Michael Matheson, Neil Findlay, Peter Murrell, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Ruth Davidson, Shona Robison, Stewart Hosie, Stuart Campbell, Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh, Tommy Sheppard, Willie Rennie, Richard Leonard, Kate Forbes, Ash Denham, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Michael Russell, Joanna Cherry, Andrew Wilson" "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats",,"Reform UK, SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats" "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Majority Betting",,"SNP Majority, No SNP Majority" -"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats - Second Place",,"SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats" +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats - Second Place",,"SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats, Alba" "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share",,"Under 40%, 40-45%, 45-50%, 50-55%, 55-60%, Over 60%" "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister on 1st Jan 2022?",,"Yes, No" "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Edinburgh Central",,"SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Greens" @@ -1860,15 +1853,18 @@ Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of c Given the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition: Large scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously. ","Yes, No" -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. -In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. +Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. +What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 +This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. +This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. ","" +"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. +Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. +This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? +By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. +To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. +","Yes, No" "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? @@ -1876,34 +1872,12 @@ The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum ---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. ---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. ","Yes, No" -"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context -======= - -Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. -You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). -The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. -What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. -","" -"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? -What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? -The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). ----We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. -If Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order: ---- -Coinbase ---- -Kraken ---- -Bitfinex ---- -Bitstamp -If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. -","" +"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. +The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. +In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515). +If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? +Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question. +","Yes, No" "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?","Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10). When will China become a democracy? This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published. @@ -1950,10 +1924,41 @@ The chosen metrics are, [The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously. This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China. ","" +"Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?","Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic. +In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024. +Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? +Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention. +","Yes, No" +"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. +Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? +The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: +---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. +---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. +---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. +(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) +The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. +The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. +","Yes, No" +"What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are ""probable healthcare-associated infections"". +In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? +--- +Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes. +--- +Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates). +--- +If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available. +--- +Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. +","" "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx). What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous. ","" +"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. +As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). +What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? +Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#). +","" "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) @@ -1961,20 +1966,24 @@ Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","Context -------- - -The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. -The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, -“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.” -Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. -If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. -What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? - -Resolution Criteria -------------------- - -The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously. +"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? +New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal). +As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. +Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? +This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. +In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) +","Yes, No" +"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. +There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. +Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? +The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. +","Yes, No" +"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). +Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. +What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. +Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). ","" "When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets. Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. @@ -1987,14 +1996,12 @@ And there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket i When will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight? This question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used. ","" -"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. -In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. -In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. -This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) -Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. -Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. -Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. -","Yes, No" +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +","" "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). [Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. @@ -2006,6 +2013,26 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out. ","" +"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. +In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. +In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. +This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) +Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. +Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. +Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. +","Yes, No" +"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. +The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). +What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? +This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +","" +"Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. +Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? +This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference. +","Yes, No" "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring): Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. @@ -2014,6 +2041,70 @@ This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"". In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins. ","" +"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. +Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate. +","Yes, No" +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. +In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" +"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context +======= + +The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. +The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. +Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). +Related questions: +[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/) +[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/) +What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. +","" +"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. +What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? +The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. +","" +"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. +What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? +This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. +","" +"What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?","Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI), +measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. +The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is ""[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs)."" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. +Thanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. +The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download). +What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021? +An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N). + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'. +If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution. +","" +"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus: +[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/) +Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia). +But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate? +Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm). +(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.) +Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? +This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31. +This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party. +Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period. +Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful. +Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. +","Yes, No" "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","related question on Metaculus: ---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again. @@ -2021,18 +2112,98 @@ Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. ","Yes, No" -"When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index. -When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index? -This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report. -The resolution date is the date the report is published. -The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such. -If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ","" +"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as +collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) +where input n is a positive integer. +The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. +When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? +Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"". +The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. +Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: +---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) +---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) +---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) +---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) +","" +"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence. +Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training. +One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. +This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? +This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023. +Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice. +","Yes, No" "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?","[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun. In August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs. Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050? The question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC. ","Yes, No" +"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. +When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? +This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve +A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +","" +"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. +Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. +According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). +What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? +Resolution +This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. +","" +"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. +At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). +The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: +1--Number of Gold Medals +2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals +3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals +The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? +Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team. +","Yes, No" +"How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems. +How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? +This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". +Details of the search query +For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"": +""AI ethics"", ""AI fairness"", ""racial bias"", ""gender bias"", ""algorithmic bias"" +The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). +The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results. +","" +"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. +There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. +In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). +In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)? +Resolution +For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. +","" +"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? +What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? +The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). +---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. +If Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order: +--- +Coinbase +--- +Kraken +--- +Bitfinex +--- +Bitstamp +If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. +","" +"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. +The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" +On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? +The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" +If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. +","" "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background ========== @@ -2054,6 +2225,21 @@ While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-int Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" +"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). +With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. +The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ +When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? +Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. +","" +"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles. +When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? +This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria: +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. +","" "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?","From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich), The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now? The chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point. @@ -2062,16 +2248,22 @@ As of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported]( Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045? This question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. -Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? -The question will resolve: -1--Rishi Sunak -2--Michael Gove -3--Jeremy Hunt -4--Priti Patel -5--None of the above -The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. -If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. +It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). +It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). +Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? +The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021). +This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. +This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. +Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery. +Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. +","Yes, No" +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. ","" "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?","As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right? Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""? @@ -2084,10 +2276,45 @@ If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resol In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution. Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. ","" -"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. -Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. -","Yes, No" +"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. +Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. +What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? +The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. +Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: +A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic +B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. +C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. +I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. +I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. +","" +"When will PHP die?","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. +According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): +PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. +While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. +Some popular websites using PHP: +---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) +---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) +---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) +---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) +---[360.cn](http://360.cn) +---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) +---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) +---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) +Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. +[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: +---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) +---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) +---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) +---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) +This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. +General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. +","" +"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. +According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. +In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. +This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? +In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. +","" "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?","[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles. Yamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class. The question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross. @@ -2106,6 +2333,22 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). ","" +"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. +Will the Open Courts Act become law? +This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively. +","Yes, No" +"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). +Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). +This question asks: +Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? +This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: +---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. +And: +---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. +The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: +There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. +The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. +","Yes, No" "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? --- @@ -2115,10 +2358,16 @@ In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, th --- Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. ","" -"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). -Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. +On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? +This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. ","Yes, No" +"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. +What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. +","" "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) [Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? @@ -2126,34 +2375,49 @@ In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 U A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question. ","Yes, No" -"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. -What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. +"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. +However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: +When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? +Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. ","" -"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. -What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? -This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. +"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. +Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? +This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. +Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? +--- +Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. +--- +The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. +","Yes, No" +"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. +Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? +We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? +Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, +1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: +1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. +1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman. +1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). +1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. +AND +2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). +*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. +","Yes, No" +"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. +Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. +EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19. +How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? +Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US. ","" -"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as -collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) -where input n is a positive integer. -The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. -When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? -Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"". -The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. -Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: ----[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) ----[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) ----[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) ----[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) -","" -"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. -Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. -This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? -By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. -By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. -This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. +"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). +The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? @@ -2174,6 +2438,13 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. ","" +"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. +Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. +This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? +By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. +By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. +This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. +","" "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria. @@ -2188,6 +2459,13 @@ The Princeton Review Dream Colleges The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%. This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030. ","" +"When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index. +When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index? +This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report. +The resolution date is the date the report is published. +The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such. +If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. +","" "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) @@ -2200,11 +2478,16 @@ One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. -Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. -What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? -In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution. -This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article. +"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. +Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? +The question will resolve: +1--Rishi Sunak +2--Michael Gove +3--Jeremy Hunt +4--Priti Patel +5--None of the above +The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. +If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. ","" "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate: the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease. @@ -2214,19 +2497,43 @@ This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom ","" -"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. -When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? -This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve -A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) +There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. +BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? +After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. +","Yes, No" +"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context +======= + +Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. +You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). +The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. +What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. ","" -"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. -[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. -In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? -This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. +"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. +Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. +This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? +The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. +","" +"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","Context +------- + +The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. +The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, +“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.” +Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. +If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. +What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? + +Resolution Criteria +------------------- + +The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously. ","" "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019. @@ -2239,6 +2546,25 @@ This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corp This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019. The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.) ","" +"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. +The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". +Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions: +---danger to the life or health of the mother +---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus +---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest +In November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland. +Selection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called ""[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)"" and ""[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)"" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively). +Opposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the ""abortion compromise"". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe. +In February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist. +Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030? +If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive. +Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. +Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. +","Yes, No" +"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. +Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. +","Yes, No" "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). @@ -2257,21 +2583,15 @@ The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthqu 4-- A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. ","" -"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. -The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". -Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions: ----danger to the life or health of the mother ----high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus ----suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest -In November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland. -Selection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called ""[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)"" and ""[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)"" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively). -Opposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the ""abortion compromise"". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe. -In February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist. -Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030? -If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive. -Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. -Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. +"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). +Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? +The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. ","Yes, No" +"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. +[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. +In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? +This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. +","" "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?","Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations. During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+). This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031? @@ -2281,16 +2601,12 @@ Wars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war be Terrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state. Armed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War. ","" -"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). -Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? -The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. -","Yes, No" -"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? -New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal). -As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. -Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? -This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. -In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) +"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". +According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. +Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). +Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? +This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. +Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". ","Yes, No" "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. @@ -2300,19 +2616,6 @@ Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. ","Yes, No" -"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". -According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. -Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). -Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? -This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. -Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". -","Yes, No" -"When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence) -Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. -When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time? -By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. -This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. -","" "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). @@ -2321,14 +2624,24 @@ This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. -What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? ----IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). ----If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. -Related questions: ----[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) ----[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) ----[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* +"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] +In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. +As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). +How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? +Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. +A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) +","" +"When will an AI pass the laugh test?","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: +...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. +For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) +Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? +Fine print: +--- +The accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies ""I laughed or smiled."" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. +--- +The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question. +--- +It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous. ","" "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?","Context ======= @@ -2355,17 +2668,24 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"When will an AI pass the laugh test?","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: -...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. -For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) -Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? -Fine print: ---- -The accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies ""I laughed or smiled."" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. ---- -The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question. ---- -It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous. +"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. +What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? +---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). +---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. +Related questions: +---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) +---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) +---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* +","" +"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars. +When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? +The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. +For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars. +","" +"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. +The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). +When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? +This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". ","" "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background ========== @@ -2380,12 +2700,47 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ","" -"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party. -In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. -More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). -Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? -Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. +"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. +The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. +[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. +This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? +This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. +This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. ","Yes, No" +"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" +"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart). +What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? +---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. +","" +"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. +About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. +Dates of note +--- +For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231). +--- +The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. +--- +The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). +--- +This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812). +--- +The [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. +Resolution +The question resolves positively if either of the following: +--- +No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks +--- +Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period +In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. +","" "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"". As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland. France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive). @@ -2399,19 +2754,42 @@ In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue]( In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union. ","Yes, No" -"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] -In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. -As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). -How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? -Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. -A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) -","" -"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. -Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. -This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? -By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. -To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. +"Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus: +---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) +---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) +---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) +Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining). +Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? +This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. +This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period. ","Yes, No" +"Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement), +The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order. +In the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html). +Some have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority), +According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards. +In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact. +Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? +This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city. +","Yes, No" +"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. +This question asks: +What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). +Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. +It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. +Resolution criteria: +With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. +The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. +","" +"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), +In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] +A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] +The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. +The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5. +This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)? +If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. +Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). +","" "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?","Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states. ""[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)"" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal. When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed? @@ -2435,6 +2813,11 @@ Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. ","Yes, No" +"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. +In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. +Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? +This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). +","Yes, No" "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -2463,11 +2846,6 @@ If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question" --- If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). ","" -"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. -In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. -Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? -This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). -","Yes, No" "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -2504,10 +2882,6 @@ The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided b --- The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. ","" -"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. -What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? -This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. -","" "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. @@ -2527,6 +2901,20 @@ By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for exa Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. (Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.) ","" +"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. +What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? +This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. +","" +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. +The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. +Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? +This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. +Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). +---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. +---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. +---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +","Yes, No" "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?","Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s. If progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI. How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? @@ -2575,12 +2963,31 @@ Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring]( Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. ","Yes, No" +"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), +By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. +To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] +Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” +When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? +This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. +","" "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. ","" +"When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence) +Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. +When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time? +By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. +This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. +","" +"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. +The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. +23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. +Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? +This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. +","Yes, No" "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -2596,15 +3003,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ","" -"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. -However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). -The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. -Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? -What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? -This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). -in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. -Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -","" "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?","Background ========== @@ -2633,6 +3031,21 @@ When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds an If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. ","" +"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. +However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). +The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. +Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? +What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? +This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). +in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. +Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). +","" +"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party. +In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. +More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). +Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? +Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. @@ -2670,6 +3083,14 @@ If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. ","" +"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)). If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers. @@ -2700,10 +3121,19 @@ Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. ","Yes, No" -"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) -There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. -BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? -After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. +"Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","Background +========== + +[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. +With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. +According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. +Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? + +Resolution +========== + +This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. +Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. ","Yes, No" "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. @@ -2730,13 +3160,6 @@ The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports. ","" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -","" "Will online poker die by 2030?","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) @@ -2749,6 +3172,25 @@ This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites. If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. ","Yes, No" +"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. +[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. +The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. +--- +If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins. +--- +If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated. +--- +The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count. +--- +Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded. +--- +Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count. +This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two. +In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%. +[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. +What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? +This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. +","" "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. [Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). @@ -2756,19 +3198,6 @@ In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. ","" -"When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?","After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket. -SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.). -When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? -Starship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, ""Starship"" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is: ----not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. ----The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). -To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards. -(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.) -(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.) -","" "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user. Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs. @@ -2782,44 +3211,26 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously. ","" -"When will PHP die?","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. -According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): -PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. -While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. -Some popular websites using PHP: ----[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) ----[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) ----[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) ----[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) ----[360.cn](http://360.cn) ----[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) ----[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) ----[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) -Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. -[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: ----[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) ----[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) ----[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) ----[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) -This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. -General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. +"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. +Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. +However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. +When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. +Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. +","" +"When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?","After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket. +SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.). +When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? +Starship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, ""Starship"" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is: +---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). +To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards. +(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.) +(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.) ","" -"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. -A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. -“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics. -Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further. -It also urges approval of more vaccines. -Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions? -This question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed: ---- -Approval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines ---- -Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines ---- -Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines ---- -Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19 -","Yes, No" "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013. In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles. @@ -2842,10 +3253,27 @@ Data According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014: 2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720. ","" -"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that -Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. -Will Hanson win the bet? -Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. +"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. +A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. +“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics. +Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further. +It also urges approval of more vaccines. +Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions? +This question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed: +--- +Approval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines +--- +Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines +--- +Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines +--- +Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19 +","Yes, No" +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. +Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. +This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. ","Yes, No" "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. @@ -2860,26 +3288,31 @@ In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's populatio What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030? Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously. ","" -"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. -The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). -What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? -This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -","" +"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) +The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) +This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States? +For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals: +--- +Donald Trump +--- +Donald Trump Jr. +--- +Eric Trump +--- +Ivanka Trump +--- +Tiffany Trump +--- +Melania Trump +--- +Barron Trump +","Yes, No" "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long? Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. ","Yes, No" -"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. -According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. -In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. -This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? -In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. -","" "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input. @@ -2895,10 +3328,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 ","" -"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020. -When will the US-Canada border reopen? -This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel. -","" "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/). Jeff McAulay argued, Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents. @@ -2917,11 +3346,25 @@ When will the first human mission to Venus take place? This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. ","" +"What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?","[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known. +One proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency. +What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016? +Resolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0. +","" "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. ","" +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +","" "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?","Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented. Opposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively. However, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise. @@ -3016,16 +3459,28 @@ Resolution Criteria Predictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself. ","" +"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context + +Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. +This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? + +Resolution Criteria + +This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. +","Yes, No" +"Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?","Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. +Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? +Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports. +For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation. +For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). +The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. +Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". +","Yes, No" "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. ","Yes, No" -"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars. -When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? -The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. -For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars. -","" "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? @@ -3045,16 +3500,16 @@ Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. ","Yes, No" -"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): -Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. -Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. -As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. -Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. -What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? -There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. -If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. -If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. -","" +"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. +Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. +Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. +On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. +Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? +This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen. +In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. +Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. +Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. +","Yes, No" "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","Context ======= @@ -3072,6 +3527,27 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020. +When will the US-Canada border reopen? +This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel. +","" +"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): +Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. +Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. +As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. +Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. +What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? +There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. +If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. +If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. +","" +"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. +[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). +When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? +This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). +If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. +If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. +","" "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms. Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process. Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin. @@ -3084,18 +3560,10 @@ It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. ","Yes, No" -"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. -[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). -When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? -This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). -If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. -If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. -","" -"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. -The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). -When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? -This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". -","" +"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. +Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? +This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. +","Yes, No" "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?","The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices. The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022. @@ -3185,6 +3653,10 @@ This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custod The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard. Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment ","Yes, No" +"When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?","As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US. +When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? +This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). +","" "When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds. @@ -3226,6 +3698,16 @@ Important note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2 One way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process. The question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin. ","" +"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome. +On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/). +After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no. +A Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. +According to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions): +The fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. +Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? +This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies. +In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. +","Yes, No" "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","Background ========== @@ -3240,26 +3722,37 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. ","Yes, No" -"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome. -On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/). -After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no. -A Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. -According to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions): -The fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. -Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? -This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies. -In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. -","Yes, No" "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement. ","" +"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. +What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? +This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. +Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. +","" "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. ","Yes, No" +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: +---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. +---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" +While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) +The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). +Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? +This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. +Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. +","Yes, No" +"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. +Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. +What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? +In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution. +This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article. +","" "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm). @@ -3268,6 +3761,25 @@ Related Questions ---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. ","Yes, No" +"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). +Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +","Yes, No" +"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). +Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021? +We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions: +1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. +2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. +According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"": +---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater +---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater +---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater +The following examples would not: +---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k +---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k +---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k +Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). +","Yes, No" "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. @@ -3275,13 +3787,6 @@ If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. ","Yes, No" -"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. -The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. -[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. -This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? -This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. -This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. -","Yes, No" "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. @@ -3305,21 +3810,11 @@ If MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively. It resolves positively otherwise. If a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai). ","Yes, No" -"When will the US-EU border reopen?","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. -On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". -When will the US-EU border reopen? -Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. -Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. -","" -"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. -Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? -The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: ----Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. ----Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. ----Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. -(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) -The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. -The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. +"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. +On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" +Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? +This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. +If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. ","Yes, No" "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. @@ -3348,6 +3843,12 @@ If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists). [1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program. ","Yes, No" +"When will the US-EU border reopen?","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. +On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". +When will the US-EU border reopen? +Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. +Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. +","" "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","Context ------- @@ -3364,16 +3865,31 @@ Resolution Criteria The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed. ","" -"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. -On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? -This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -","Yes, No" -"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. -The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. -In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515). -If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? -Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question. +"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. +In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. +This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? +This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human. +","" +"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. +In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. +When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? +Resolution +This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. +This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. +Data +These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): +2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) +","" +"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: +The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. +--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) +CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. +The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. +As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. +Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? +This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. +The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. +In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. ","Yes, No" "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: @@ -3417,13 +3933,9 @@ Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) ","" -"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). -The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). -In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. -When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? -This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. -By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. -To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" +"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. +What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? +The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. ","" "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. @@ -3440,20 +3952,37 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ","" +"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). +The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). +In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. +When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? +This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. +By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. +To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" +","" +"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that +Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. +Will Hanson win the bet? +Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. +","Yes, No" +"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. +The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. +The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". +Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? +This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. +In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. +If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. +To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. +This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? +For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. +","Yes, No" "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. ","" -"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): -4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. -4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. -The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. -[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. -When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. -If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. -","" "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. @@ -3461,12 +3990,13 @@ Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 20 This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) ","Yes, No" -"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. -Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. -However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. -When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. -Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. +"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection. +If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? +If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets. +If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. +---Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. +---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. +---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. ","" "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU. As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland"" @@ -3474,15 +4004,6 @@ More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01. ","Yes, No" -"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. But life could take many forms: ---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). @@ -3504,25 +4025,6 @@ Resolution details: * My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example. Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). ","Yes, No" -"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). -Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021? -We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions: -1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. -2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. -According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"": ----trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater ----trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater ----trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater -The following examples would not: ----trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k ----trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k ----trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k -Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). -","Yes, No" -"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart). -What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? ----USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. -","" "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?","Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task. The test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below. They found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law. @@ -3564,28 +4066,12 @@ A successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following cri Predictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO. ","" -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. -There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ----[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ----Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" -While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) -The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). -Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? -This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. -Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -","Yes, No" "Will China land the next person on the Moon?","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country. ","Yes, No" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -","" "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? @@ -3595,6 +4081,13 @@ Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a pers The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. ","" +"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). +[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. +What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? +This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). +GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +","" "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?","Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors: [Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate): Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme @@ -3614,26 +4107,12 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns. What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? ---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) ","" -"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence. -Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training. -One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. -This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? -This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023. -Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice. -","Yes, No" "When will GTA VI be released in the US?","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). When will GTA VI be released? This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. ","" -"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). -[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. -What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? -This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). -GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -","" "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. @@ -3649,27 +4128,6 @@ Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffai If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. ","" -"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. -About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. -Dates of note ---- -For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231). ---- -The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. ---- -The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). ---- -This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812). ---- -The [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. -Resolution -The question resolves positively if either of the following: ---- -No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks ---- -Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period -In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. -","" "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract, According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them. Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. @@ -3695,11 +4153,6 @@ Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elect Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023. ","Yes, No" -"Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?","Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic. -In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024. -Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? -Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention. -","Yes, No" "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? @@ -3725,15 +4178,15 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, a For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" -"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context - -Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. -This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? - -Resolution Criteria - -This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -","Yes, No" +"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): +4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. +4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. +The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. +[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. +When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? +This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. +If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. +","" "How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned. @@ -3772,22 +4225,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" -"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context -======= - -The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. -The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. -Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). -Related questions: -[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/) -[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/) -What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/). Joseph F. Huttner argued, 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...] @@ -3815,6 +4252,16 @@ This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Cong This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise. ","Yes, No" +"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). +The proposition in question will be taken as: +The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. +That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: +--- +If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.) +--- +Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. +(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) +","Yes, No" "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time. Question @@ -3848,26 +4295,6 @@ If the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median. If the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph. Otherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate. ","" -"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). -The proposition in question will be taken as: -The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. -That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: ---- -If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.) ---- -Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. -(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) -","Yes, No" -"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. -At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). -The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: -1--Number of Gold Medals -2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals -3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals -The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? -Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team. -","Yes, No" "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","related question on Metaculus: ---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no. @@ -3879,13 +4306,6 @@ This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question. ","" -"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. -Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? ---- -Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. ---- -The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. -","Yes, No" "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?","This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies. European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of ""enriched"" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free. In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the ""[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)"" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project ""[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)"". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023. @@ -3903,53 +4323,12 @@ Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement. ","Yes, No" -"Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus: ----[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) ----[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) ----[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) -Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining). -Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? -This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. -This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period. -","Yes, No" -"Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement), -The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order. -In the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html). -Some have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority), -According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards. -In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact. -Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? -This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city. -","Yes, No" "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. -This question asks: -What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). -Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. -It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. -Resolution criteria: -With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. -The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. -","" -"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. -To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. -This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? -For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. -","Yes, No" -"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), -In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] -A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] -The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. -The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5. -This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)? -If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. -Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). -","" "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: @@ -3960,19 +4339,6 @@ If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December Related question ---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) ","" -"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus: -[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/) -Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia). -But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate? -Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm). -(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.) -Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? -This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31. -This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party. -Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period. -Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful. -Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. -","Yes, No" "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 @@ -4071,46 +4437,6 @@ Similar questions: ---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) ---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) ","Yes, No" -"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. -This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. -This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021). -Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. -In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis. -Other questions in the series. -How many new cases of COVID-19 in: ----[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) ----[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) ----[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) -Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) -","" -"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. -Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. -This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? -The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. -","" -"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that: -“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” -These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. -The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. -The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. -What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? -Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. -Data: -Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% -","" -"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. -Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? -We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? -Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, -1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: -1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. -1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman. -1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). -1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. -AND -2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). -*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. -","Yes, No" "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): @@ -4121,16 +4447,16 @@ And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing. Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.) ","Yes, No" -"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. -Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. -Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. -On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. -Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? -This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen. -In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. -Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. -Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. -","Yes, No" +"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that: +“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” +These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. +The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. +The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. +What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? +Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. +Data: +Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% +","" "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. @@ -4154,13 +4480,6 @@ Data sources and more information: How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April? This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday). ","" -"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. -There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. -In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). -In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)? -Resolution -For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. -","" "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?","Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/) The United States House of Representatives (""House"") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so. Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups. @@ -4181,16 +4500,6 @@ The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) ","" -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. -On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. -The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. -Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? -This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. -Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). ----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. -","Yes, No" "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. [A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter) The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. @@ -4205,12 +4514,6 @@ When will the mammoth be revived? This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. ","" -"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). -With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. -The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ -When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? -Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. -","" "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- @@ -4229,13 +4532,6 @@ Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mi For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. ","Yes, No" -"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), -By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. -To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] -Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” -When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? -This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. -","" "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. [In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html) In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) @@ -4268,17 +4564,6 @@ As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear inciden Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. ","Yes, No" -"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. -Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. -What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? -The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. -Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: -A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic -B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. -C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. -I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. -I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. -","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). @@ -4387,6 +4672,20 @@ Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. ","" +"What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?","Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI), +measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. +The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is ""[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs)."" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. +Thanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. +The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download). +What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021? +An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O). + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'. +If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution. +","" "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. [There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). @@ -4625,10 +4924,6 @@ Stunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unco In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. In case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute. ","" -"What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. -What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? -This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. -","" "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. @@ -4638,14 +4933,9 @@ If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroac This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. ","" -"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). -Data sources: ----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) -What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. -In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +"What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. +What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? +This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. ","" "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. @@ -4695,10 +4985,6 @@ This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automat For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. ","" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","" "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm) Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. @@ -4730,21 +5016,6 @@ After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 20 This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. ","Yes, No" -"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. -In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. -When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? -Resolution -This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. -This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. -Data -These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): -2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) -","" -"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. -What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? -This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. -Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -4892,10 +5163,6 @@ Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 202 Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. -What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? -The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. -","" "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? @@ -4911,6 +5178,10 @@ The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies no Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. +What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? +The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. +","" "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP). When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? ---Countries with 1M population size only. @@ -5326,10 +5597,6 @@ How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/) ","" -"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) -Will this goal be realized? -The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. -","Yes, No" "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well). The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. @@ -5348,6 +5615,10 @@ Xi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) pa --- Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics. ","Yes, No" +"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) +Will this goal be realized? +The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. +","Yes, No" "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? @@ -5386,34 +5657,6 @@ When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. ","" -"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) -The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) -This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States? -For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals: ---- -Donald Trump ---- -Donald Trump Jr. ---- -Eric Trump ---- -Ivanka Trump ---- -Tiffany Trump ---- -Melania Trump ---- -Barron Trump -","Yes, No" -"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. -The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552): The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization. US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks): @@ -5431,12 +5674,14 @@ Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 202 ---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). ---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. ","Yes, No" -"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). -Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. -What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. -Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). +"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. +The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?","Context ======= @@ -5496,6 +5741,20 @@ on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that si Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. ","Yes, No" +"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). +Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). +In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. +By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? +This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. +By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states. +Methodology +The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: +When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. +If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: +When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. +In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. +The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. +","" "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. The index is constructed as follows: --- @@ -5515,20 +5774,6 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. ","" -"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). -Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). -In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. -By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? -This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. -By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states. -Methodology -The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: -When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. -If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: -When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. -In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. -The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -","" "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128) Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021. How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people? @@ -5597,11 +5842,6 @@ Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) o This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. ","Yes, No" -"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. -However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: -When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? -Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -","" "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that: The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution. @@ -5626,14 +5866,6 @@ This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exch The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. ","Yes, No" -"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. -The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -","" "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves ""Yes"" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves ""No"" otherwise. @@ -5642,6 +5874,14 @@ The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. ","Yes, No" +"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. +The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +","" "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. A brief overview on her: Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. @@ -5737,6 +5977,19 @@ Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-la How many emoji related court cases in 2021? Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. ","" +"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. +2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). +Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). +The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. +The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor. +Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. +The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). +(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey ) +Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? +The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW. +For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian. +The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs. +","Yes, No" "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015","In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend. For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015? Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases: @@ -5764,19 +6017,6 @@ The [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as o Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. ","" -"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. -2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). -Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). -The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. -The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor. -Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. -The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). -(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey ) -Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? -The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW. -For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian. -The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs. -","Yes, No" "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?","[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat. Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming. @@ -5892,11 +6132,6 @@ Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring]( Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. ","Yes, No" -"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. -Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? -This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date. In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine. [Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit. @@ -5996,6 +6231,15 @@ This question resolves when any one of the following events occurs: 5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. The question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video). ","" +"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","Related questions: +[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) +[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) +This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. +According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US. +When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? +This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). +If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. +","" "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. @@ -6012,15 +6256,6 @@ This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Ti If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada. Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary. ","" -"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","Related questions: -[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) -[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) -This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. -According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US. -When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? -This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). -If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. -","" "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr. Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? @@ -6050,17 +6285,6 @@ If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. ","" -"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: -The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. ---[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) -CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. -The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. -As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. -Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? -This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. -The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. -In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. -","Yes, No" "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract), An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. @@ -6078,20 +6302,10 @@ Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was pri A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. ","Yes, No" -"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. -There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. -Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? -The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. +"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. +Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? +This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. ","Yes, No" -"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles. -When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? -This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria: ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. -","" "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? @@ -6104,33 +6318,11 @@ So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,6 Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting. ","Yes, No" -"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. -Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? -This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. -","Yes, No" "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. -It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. -Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? -Resolution details: ---- -Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. ---- -Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. ---- -Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. ---- -Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. ---- -In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). ---- -If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. -Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. @@ -6163,15 +6355,23 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. ","Yes, No" -"When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?","As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US. -When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? -This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). -","" -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. -Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. -This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. +"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. +It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. +Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? +Resolution details: +--- +Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. +--- +Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. +--- +Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. +--- +Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. +--- +In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). +--- +If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. +Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. @@ -6208,12 +6408,6 @@ However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox? ","Yes, No" -"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. -On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" -Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? -This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. -If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. -","Yes, No" "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? @@ -6246,6 +6440,14 @@ No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below. If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members. ","" +"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. +Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws. +However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described. +Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013) +Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? +This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. +This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. +","Yes, No" "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?","The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. Indefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution. President Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. @@ -6257,20 +6459,6 @@ When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp? This question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government. Closures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count. ","" -"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. -Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. -What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 -This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. -This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. -","" -"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. -Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws. -However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described. -Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013) -Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? -This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. -This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. -","Yes, No" "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens. So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? @@ -6421,14 +6609,6 @@ Related Questions ---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). ","" -"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection. -If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? -If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets. -If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. ----Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. ----The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. ----The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. -","" "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. @@ -6439,11 +6619,6 @@ If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement. Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. -As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). -What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? -Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#). -","" "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. This question will resolve positively if: ---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and @@ -6452,12 +6627,6 @@ This question will resolve ambiguously if: ---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. ","Yes, No" -"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. -The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" -On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? -The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" -If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. -","" "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. @@ -6473,6 +6642,13 @@ We ask: In what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset? Resolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character. ","" +"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. +If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? +This question resolves: +---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. +---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. +---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. +","Yes, No" "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?","Context ======= @@ -6489,13 +6665,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. ","" -"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. -If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? -This question resolves: ----Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. ----Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ----Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. -","Yes, No" "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. @@ -6583,18 +6752,6 @@ Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall ---Tesla For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.) ","Yes, No" -"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). -Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). -This question asks: -Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? -This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: ----That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. -And: ----That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. -The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: -There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. -The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -","Yes, No" "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","Background ========== @@ -6658,10 +6815,6 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","" -"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. -Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate. -","Yes, No" "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): @@ -6688,24 +6841,12 @@ The list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](http ---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) For reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020. ","Yes, No" -"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. -The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. -The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". -Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? -This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. -In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. -If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. ","Yes, No" -"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. -[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? -If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"". -","" "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","related question on Metaculus: ---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) @@ -6715,6 +6856,10 @@ Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. ","Yes, No" +"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. +[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? +If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"". +","" "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? @@ -6763,23 +6908,6 @@ Resolution Companies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue ""Broiler"", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030. This question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030. ","" -"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context -======= - -[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). -Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. -Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers -Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. -Related questions: -[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) -[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) -What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. @@ -6817,6 +6945,23 @@ The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bou Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100? This question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory. ","Yes, No" +"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context +======= + +[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). +Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. +Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers +Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. +Related questions: +[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) +[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) +What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. +","" "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. @@ -7088,25 +7233,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ","" -"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. -[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. -The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. ---- -If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins. ---- -If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated. ---- -The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count. ---- -Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded. ---- -Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count. -This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two. -In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%. -[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. -What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? -This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. -","" "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. 'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. @@ -7171,14 +7297,6 @@ Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered. ","" -"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? @@ -7194,10 +7312,6 @@ Related questions: As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. -What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? -The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. -","" "When will the VIX index climb above 50?","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. It represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX). @@ -7259,19 +7373,6 @@ This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. ","Yes, No" -"When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?","Background -========== - -Varda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. -As of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. -Predictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda. -When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself. -","" "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?","Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence. In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question. Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks: @@ -7290,6 +7391,19 @@ For image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is us 4-- If [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous. ","" +"When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?","Background +========== + +Varda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. +As of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. +Predictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda. +When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself. +","" "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?","Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding). In the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.). Fortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/). @@ -7384,20 +7498,6 @@ Will the GWB be detected by 2075? Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. ","Yes, No" -"Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","Background -========== - -[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. -With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. -According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. -Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? - -Resolution -========== - -This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. -Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. -","Yes, No" "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. ","" @@ -7417,10 +7517,6 @@ The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that the If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. -What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? -The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. -","" "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5). As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth. Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? @@ -7446,13 +7542,6 @@ Related question How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ","" -"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. -Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. -According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). -What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? -Resolution -This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. -","" "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? @@ -7537,16 +7626,6 @@ This question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whos Resolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations. If this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as ""> Oct 5, 2032"". ","" -"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. -It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). -It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). -Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? -The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021). -This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. -This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. -Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery. -Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. -","Yes, No" "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?","A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA): An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. A falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k. @@ -7641,11 +7720,6 @@ This means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-h Resolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal. Keyword for search: artificial womb. ","" -"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), -a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. -When will be the next S&P 500 correction? -The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens. -","" "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf). @@ -7661,6 +7735,11 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 ","" +"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), +a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. +When will be the next S&P 500 correction? +The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens. +","" "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?","Background ========== @@ -7674,12 +7753,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ","" -"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. -The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. -23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. -Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? -This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. -","Yes, No" "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. @@ -7762,11 +7835,6 @@ Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. ","Yes, No" -"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. -In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. -This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? -This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human. -","" "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000. In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. @@ -8025,10 +8093,6 @@ Related questions: ---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) [ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. ","" -"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. -Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? -This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. -","Yes, No" "When will Croatia adopt the euro?","Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back. This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro? This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time. @@ -8083,11 +8147,6 @@ The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=& ---350 for the calendar year 2018 ---700 for the calendar year 2019 ","" -"What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?","[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known. -One proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency. -What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016? -Resolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0. -","" "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others. What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD? @@ -8224,10 +8283,6 @@ Data: Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show. ","" -"Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. -Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? -This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference. -","Yes, No" "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?","The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART). Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric. What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030? @@ -8277,12 +8332,6 @@ The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $5835 "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?","After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China? The question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes. ","" -"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) -According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. -Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? -Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? -The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. -","Yes, No" "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?","Context ======= @@ -8301,6 +8350,12 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) +According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. +Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? +Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? +The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. +","Yes, No" "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) @@ -8873,12 +8928,6 @@ This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is publi While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. ","" -"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. -Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. -EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19. -How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? -Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US. -","" "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -9099,30 +9148,11 @@ This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/? Regions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: ""Producing Animals/Slaughtered"" Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates. ","" -"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). -The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -","" "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/). The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus). What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). ","" -"What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are ""probable healthcare-associated infections"". -In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? ---- -Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes. ---- -Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates). ---- -If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available. ---- -Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. -","" "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?","Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now. While there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all. But while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask: @@ -9242,15 +9272,6 @@ Option 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make t Note that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (""Pokemon auto""), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way. The question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025. ","Yes, No" -"How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems. -How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? -This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". -Details of the search query -For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"": -""AI ethics"", ""AI fairness"", ""racial bias"", ""gender bias"", ""algorithmic bias"" -The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). -The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results. -","" "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation. There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are: ---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good @@ -9356,21 +9377,6 @@ Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Eart This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously. ","Yes, No" -"Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?","Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. -One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. -Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. -It could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training ""coach"" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games. -Do you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021? -This question asks: -In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? -New content means: -1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity. -2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second. -3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from: --new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, -all three of which occur pretty routinely. -New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a ""response"" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way. -","Yes, No" "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation. There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are: ---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good @@ -9389,6 +9395,21 @@ Resolution This questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms: ""Climate engineering"" OR ""geoengineering"" OR ""Solar radiation management"" OR ""Stratospheric Particle Injection"" OR ""Stratospheric aerosol injection"" OR ""Marine cloud brightening"" OR ""Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement"" ","Yes, No" +"Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?","Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. +One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. +Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. +It could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training ""coach"" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games. +Do you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021? +This question asks: +In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? +New content means: +1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity. +2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second. +3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from: +-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, +all three of which occur pretty routinely. +New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a ""response"" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way. +","Yes, No" "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015. However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. @@ -9785,17 +9806,6 @@ Similar questions: ---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. ---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. ","" -"Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. -Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media) -In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea. -The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang. -Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe. -""Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,"" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. -""Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,"" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University. -Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? -This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. -This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place. -","Yes, No" "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?","[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. In the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR. The parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled ""Europe's last dictatorship"" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government. @@ -9809,6 +9819,17 @@ Reduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/poli What will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030? Resolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available. ","" +"Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. +Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media) +In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea. +The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang. +Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe. +""Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,"" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. +""Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,"" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University. +Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? +This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. +This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place. +","Yes, No" "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx). Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf). How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg? @@ -9889,6 +9910,14 @@ For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at le Moreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/). Related question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) ","Yes, No" +"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. +As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) +In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. +On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H) +Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? +This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing. +If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?","[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with ""Yes"" or ""No"", was ""Should Scotland be an independent country?"" The ""No"" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question ""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"" with ""Leave,"" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with ""Remain."" The ""Leave"" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history. @@ -9901,14 +9930,6 @@ In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results. In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously. ","Yes, No" -"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. -As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) -In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. -On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H) -Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? -This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing. -If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -10223,16 +10244,16 @@ If EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the c What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. ","" -"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. -Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. -","Yes, No" "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?","Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity. But how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises. We can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online. It is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category. ","Yes, No" +"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. +Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. +","Yes, No" "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?","Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists). But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that: The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago. @@ -10307,12 +10328,6 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. ","" -"Will humans go extinct by 2100?","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. -In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. -Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? -For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) -N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. -","Yes, No" "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?","The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states. It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10). @@ -10326,6 +10341,12 @@ This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for * ""military personnel"" here includes the Coast Guard. ""conscription"" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation. ","Yes, No" +"Will humans go extinct by 2100?","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. +In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. +Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? +For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) +N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. +","Yes, No" "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?","Why care Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown. [On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), ""fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation."" @@ -10368,26 +10389,6 @@ Resolution Criteria This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook). ","" -"Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?","Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin), -an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world. -Chauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added. -Some have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From [a Medium post](https://medium.com/@gavrilodavid/why-derek-chauvin-may-get-off-his-murder-charge-2e2ad8d0911), -There are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of a murder charge. [...] -1-- -George Floyd was experiencing cardiopulmonary and psychological distress minutes before he was placed on the ground, let alone had a knee to his neck. -2-- -The Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) allows the use of neck restraint on suspects who actively resist arrest, and George Floyd actively resisted arrest on two occasions, including immediately prior to neck restraint being used. -3-- -The officers were recorded on their body cams assessing George Floyd as suffering from “excited delirium syndrome” (ExDS), a condition which the MPD considers an extreme threat to both the officers and the suspect. A white paper used by the MPD acknowledges that ExDS suspects may die irrespective of force involved. The officers’ response to this situation was in line with MPD guidelines for ExDS. -4-- -Restraining the suspect on his or her abdomen (prone restraint) is a common tactic in ExDS situations, and the white paper used by the MPD instructs the officers to control the suspect until paramedics arrive. -5-- -Floyd’s autopsy revealed a potentially lethal concoction of drugs — not just a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl, but also methamphetamine. Together with his history of drug abuse and two serious heart conditions, Floyd’s condition was exceptionally and unusually fragile. -6-- -Chauvin’s neck restraint is unlikely to have exerted a dangerous amount of force to Floyd’s neck. Floyd is shown on video able to lift his head and neck, and a robust study on double-knee restraints showed a median force exertion of approximately approximately 105lbs. -This question resolves positively if Derek Chauvin is acquitted of ALL murder charges OR all murder charges against him are dropped. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If he dies before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously. -Only convictions for offences actually called ""murder"" trigger negative resolution ; conviction for other offences such as manslaughter does not. -","Yes, No" "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?","Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf). Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom). What is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026? @@ -10501,14 +10502,6 @@ This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 dose Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021? Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021. ","Yes, No" -"When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). -The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). -Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people. -When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places? -This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks. -By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. -To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet in a public outdoor place today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -","" "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?","A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified. but of course @@ -11175,21 +11168,6 @@ The official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If th Related questions: [Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/) ","" -"How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. -Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). -AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/). -How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? -This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". -Details of the search query -For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract: -""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction"" -The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -Running this query for previous years gives: ----80 for the calendar year 2017 ----127 for the calendar year 2018 ----275 for the calendar year 2019 ----420 in the calendar year 202 -","" "For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","Context ======= @@ -11214,6 +11192,21 @@ The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one For the purposes of this question, ""currently undiscovered"" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion. For this question, a ""social media"" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus. ","" +"How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. +Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). +AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/). +How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? +This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". +Details of the search query +For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract: +""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction"" +The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). +Running this query for previous years gives: +---80 for the calendar year 2017 +---127 for the calendar year 2018 +---275 for the calendar year 2019 +---420 in the calendar year 202 +","" "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?","[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year. This question asks: What will China's HDI score be in 2030? @@ -11446,17 +11439,6 @@ With the Breakthrough Therapy ""fast track"" designation on their side, will MAP To resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 7 March 2020, more than 102,000 cases have been confirmed, of which 7,100 were classified as serious. 96 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. -This question asks what will be [the doubling time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time) of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020? -The resolution will be based on the following equation that assumes exponential growth: -This question will follow as much as possible the resolution criteria described in [the question about the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/). In short, this question will resolve at the end of March 2021 and will use the best available data for the whole world as made available by WHO. -The will be the 20th of January, because [the first WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4) is for that day and it estimates 282 cases. The will be the last day of the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases. The time unit of and will be days. -The will be the total cumulative number of cases globally at the end of the month with the biggest increase. In other words, the number will be counted from the beginning of the outbreak and not during that single month. -For example, assume that February will be the month with the biggest growth then , will be the 29th February and . -This may differ from the official estimates because COVID-19 cases did not follow the exponential growth in February. -This question will resolve ambiguous if the question ""[Which month of 2020 will see the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)"" will resolve ambiguous. -You may also want to take a look at: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) -","" "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?","Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. Europe is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390). Growth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. @@ -12745,6 +12727,18 @@ The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capp Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress. If by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" +"If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5129) +In 2019, California passed Assembly Bill 5 (AB 5), which assumes a worker is an employee, rather than an independent contractor, unless [three criteria are met](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Assembly_Bill_5_(2019)). In August 2020, the Superior Court of San Francisco ruled that [Uber and Lyft had violated AB 5](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)). +Proposition 22 is a ballot initiative that would override AB 5 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, not employees. DoorDash, Lyft, Uber, Instacart, and Postmates have provided $110M in campaign funding for Proposition 22. The stipulations can be found [here](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)). Proposition 22 is scheduled to be voted on on November 3, 2020. +In Q2 2020, Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility (i.e. ride-sharing) segment was [50M](https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2020/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Second-Quarter-2020/default.aspx). Historical data can be found in [Uber's quarterly reports](https://investor.uber.com/financials/default.aspx). +If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021? +Resolution: +---If Proposition 22 is passed before March 31, 2021, this question resolves according to the adjusted EBITDA for mobility reported in Uber's Q1 2021 quarterly report. +---If Proposition 22 is not passed before March 31, 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. This includes if the vote is canceled, if it is postponed to a date before March 31, 2021 and then does not pass, or if it is postponed to a date after March 31, 2021. +Other possible world: +---[If California does not pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5130/if-california-does-not-pass-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-how-many-active-drivers-will-uber-have-in-california-per-quarter-in-2021/) +See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). +","" "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?","Background ========== @@ -12764,18 +12758,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview). ","" -"If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5129) -In 2019, California passed Assembly Bill 5 (AB 5), which assumes a worker is an employee, rather than an independent contractor, unless [three criteria are met](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Assembly_Bill_5_(2019)). In August 2020, the Superior Court of San Francisco ruled that [Uber and Lyft had violated AB 5](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)). -Proposition 22 is a ballot initiative that would override AB 5 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, not employees. DoorDash, Lyft, Uber, Instacart, and Postmates have provided $110M in campaign funding for Proposition 22. The stipulations can be found [here](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)). Proposition 22 is scheduled to be voted on on November 3, 2020. -In Q2 2020, Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility (i.e. ride-sharing) segment was [50M](https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2020/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Second-Quarter-2020/default.aspx). Historical data can be found in [Uber's quarterly reports](https://investor.uber.com/financials/default.aspx). -If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021? -Resolution: ----If Proposition 22 is passed before March 31, 2021, this question resolves according to the adjusted EBITDA for mobility reported in Uber's Q1 2021 quarterly report. ----If Proposition 22 is not passed before March 31, 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. This includes if the vote is canceled, if it is postponed to a date before March 31, 2021 and then does not pass, or if it is postponed to a date after March 31, 2021. -Other possible world: ----[If California does not pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5130/if-california-does-not-pass-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-how-many-active-drivers-will-uber-have-in-california-per-quarter-in-2021/) -See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). -","" "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -14289,6 +14271,12 @@ This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any languag Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" +"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) +[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering) +The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html) +This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? +Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. +","Yes, No" "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson: Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030? @@ -14299,12 +14287,6 @@ If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively --- If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively ","Yes, No" -"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) -[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering) -The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html) -This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? -Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. -","Yes, No" "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks. It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.). The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)]. @@ -15303,11 +15285,6 @@ This question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a This question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0. If two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"Will China launch an ""artificial moon"" by 2025?","As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight. -The claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights. -Let's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. -Resolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. ""Major Chinese city"" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above). -","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career. For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last. @@ -15324,6 +15301,11 @@ We will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or p This question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated Note that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive. ","Yes, No" +"Will China launch an ""artificial moon"" by 2025?","As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight. +The claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights. +Let's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. +Resolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. ""Major Chinese city"" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above). +","Yes, No" "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?","In the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized). A [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. As the pandemic drags on, Congress must decide to what extent it will continue these payments. In its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers. @@ -15447,11 +15429,6 @@ To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2 If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous. For athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. ","" -"How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?","[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). -How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide? -Resolution details: -In the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature. -","" "When will there be a mile-high building?","The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.) But guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark. Among them: @@ -15464,6 +15441,11 @@ The Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. Bu At that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. ""The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,"" the report explains. It seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion? ","" +"How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?","[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). +How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide? +Resolution details: +In the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature. +","" "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?","In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages. The Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit. But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. @@ -16061,14 +16043,6 @@ When the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions As of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131. If the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. ","" -"Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?","Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. -Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? -Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports. -For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation. -For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). -The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. -Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". -","Yes, No" "3.6°C global warming by 2100?","Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). Given these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. In particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts. @@ -16145,6 +16119,11 @@ What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029? This resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as this question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. ","" +"What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?","We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people. +In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time. +As of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time. +This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians? +","" "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?","[warning: links may contain spoilers] [George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers). Many of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1). @@ -16159,11 +16138,6 @@ I have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [""A Dream of Spring""](htt For a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)). ------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. ""The End"" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) ","Yes, No" -"What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?","We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people. -In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time. -As of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time. -This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians? -","" "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?","Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. For the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission. Not included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons. @@ -16270,10 +16244,6 @@ As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$. What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$? Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD). ","" -"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","Yes, No" -"Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). @@ -16281,38 +16251,55 @@ If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting pr ","Yes, No" -"What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?","This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More" +"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","Yes, No" +"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ + +","Yes, No" "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. . ","Yes, No" -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","" +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" +"Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?","This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. +","Yes, No" "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","Yes, No" "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ - -","Yes, No" +"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" +"Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?","This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. +","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" -"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No" "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","Yes, No" -"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","Yes, No" -"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No" +"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No" +"How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?","This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a ""hung jury"" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, ""0"". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.","0, 1, 2" "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" +"Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Matt Gaetz will hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District from the date of the creation of this market through June 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" in the event that Matt Gaetz continues to hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. In the event that Matt Gaetz resigns, is removed from office, or is no longer in office for any reason prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""No"" immediately. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.house.gov/representatives. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" +"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No" -"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. +"How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. + +At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. + +Neither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. + +Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. + +In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Less than 30, 30-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, More than 80" +"Will there be more than 140 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 20, 2021?","This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 20, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are not more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).","Yes, No" +"Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?","This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. + ","Yes, No" -"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","Yes, No" +"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. +","" "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16385,7 +16372,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" +","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16451,7 +16438,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) -","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" +","Armin Laschet, Markus Söder, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16468,7 +16455,7 @@ In response to trader inquiry: The term ""as of"" refers to the time and date at ","Yes, No" "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" +","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan" "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" @@ -16540,7 +16527,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" +","Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro" "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16602,7 +16589,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Juan Arteaga, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" +","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16620,7 +16607,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" +","Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16683,11 +16670,11 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" +","Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Mark Rutte, Emmanuel Macron" "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" +","Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. @@ -16702,7 +16689,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh, Dan Kritenbrink" +","Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh, Claire McCaskill, Dan Kritenbrink" "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16734,11 +16721,11 @@ End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner" +","Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, John Brunner" "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Mark Walker, Pat McCrory, Lara Trump, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" +","Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) @@ -16777,7 +16764,7 @@ Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general electi Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President. Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Dem. House & Senate, Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, D House, R Senate" +","Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate" "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16834,7 +16821,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson, Matthew Whitaker" +","Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson" "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources). For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. @@ -16855,7 +16842,7 @@ End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Antoinette Lopez, Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández" +","Antoinette Lopez, Melanie Stansbury, Randi McGinn, Georgene Louis, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Victor Reyes, Francisco Fernández" "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) @@ -16863,7 +16850,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Brian Kemp, Doug Collins, Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker" +","Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker" "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?","The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. @@ -16902,6 +16889,10 @@ End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ","Republican, Democratic" +"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +","Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle" "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ","","Yes, No" "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","","Yes, No" "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","Contracts to be added on request","Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Johnny Mercer, Michael Gove, Matthew Hancock, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Baker, Ruth Davidson, Esther McVey, Philip Hammond, Rishi Sunak" @@ -16987,8 +16978,6 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","","Yes, No" "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","","50% and below, 51-53%, 54-56%, 57%+" "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?","Yes, No" -"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?","26 or fewer, 27–28, 29–30, 31–32, 33 or more" -"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?","8 or fewer, 9 or more" "Next G20 leader to leave","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?","Yoshihide Suga (Japan), Emmanuel Macron (France), Joe Biden (United States), Boris Johnson (United Kingdom), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Justin Trudeau (Canada), Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Xi Jinping (China), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)" "Year of next Canadian federal election","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?","2021, 2022, 2023 or later" "Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","Yes, No" diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index b06e96a..99f908a 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -1,4 +1,48 @@ [ + { + "title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "10", + "numforecasters": "9", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "7", + "numforecasters": "7", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work", @@ -7,32 +51,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.1292, + "probability": 0.12390000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.2303, + "probability": 0.2161, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.317, + "probability": 0.282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16620000000000001, + "probability": 0.1866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.1573, + "probability": 0.19140000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "65", - "numforecasters": "53", + "numforecasts": "77", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%" }, @@ -44,17 +88,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "13", - "numforecasters": "12", + "numforecasts": "14", + "numforecasters": "13", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -66,17 +110,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "11", - "numforecasters": "10", + "numforecasts": "12", + "numforecasters": "11", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -88,17 +132,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "12", - "numforecasters": "11", + "numforecasts": "13", + "numforecasters": "12", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -110,32 +154,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 7,500", - "probability": 0.039599999999999996, + "probability": 0.042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1348, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.2783, + "probability": 0.3064, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.29600000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 13,500", - "probability": 0.2421, + "probability": 0.2208, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "42", - "numforecasters": "34", + "numforecasts": "44", + "numforecasters": "36", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500" }, @@ -147,32 +191,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 70,000", - "probability": 0.1119, + "probability": 0.1234, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.316, + "probability": 0.33340000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", - "probability": 0.3179, + "probability": 0.3059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", - "probability": 0.175, + "probability": 0.165, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 130,000", - "probability": 0.0793, + "probability": 0.0723, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "74", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000" }, @@ -184,32 +228,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.1371, + "probability": 0.1294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.17859999999999998, + "probability": 0.1863, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.4921, + "probability": 0.5024000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.1675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.0121, + "probability": 0.0144, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "22", - "numforecasters": "20", + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "22", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion" }, @@ -221,32 +265,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 3%", - "probability": 0.228, + "probability": 0.243, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.32299999999999995, + "probability": 0.313, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.307, + "probability": 0.297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", - "probability": 0.096, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.5%", - "probability": 0.046, + "probability": 0.047, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "13", - "numforecasters": "12", + "numforecasts": "14", + "numforecasters": "13", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%" }, @@ -258,32 +302,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.04650000000000001, + "probability": 0.047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10490000000000001, + "probability": 0.102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2274, + "probability": 0.2225, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.31370000000000003, + "probability": 0.3239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3074, + "probability": 0.3045, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "70", + "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" }, @@ -295,17 +339,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "105", + "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -326,8 +370,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "130", + "numforecasts": "169", + "numforecasters": "131", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -339,17 +383,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $40 billion", - "probability": 0.0557, + "probability": 0.056299999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2577, + "probability": 0.259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", - "probability": 0.40869999999999995, + "probability": 0.40630000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -359,11 +403,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion", - "probability": 0.073, + "probability": 0.0733, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "49", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $40 billion, Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive, More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion, More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion, More than $100 billion" @@ -381,26 +425,26 @@ }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.129, + "probability": 0.121, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.4286, + "probability": 0.4255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.3272, + "probability": 0.3159, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.08070000000000001, + "probability": 0.10310000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "49", + "numforecasts": "51", "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion" @@ -413,17 +457,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.1868, + "probability": 0.19030000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3164, + "probability": 0.31489999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.2991, + "probability": 0.29719999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -433,11 +477,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0436, + "probability": 0.0435, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", + "numforecasts": "134", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5" @@ -450,31 +494,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0506, + "probability": 0.051, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2032, + "probability": 0.1984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.3639, + "probability": 0.3619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2382, + "probability": 0.2429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.14400000000000002, + "probability": 0.1458, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", + "numforecasts": "109", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million" @@ -487,31 +531,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0495, + "probability": 0.0482, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.30329999999999996, + "probability": 0.3013, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3326, + "probability": 0.33409999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.1923, + "probability": 0.19329999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1223, + "probability": 0.1231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", + "numforecasts": "130", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" @@ -524,31 +568,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.039, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0834, + "probability": 0.0855, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", - "probability": 0.19829999999999998, + "probability": 0.2028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", - "probability": 0.3469, + "probability": 0.3348, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 32,000", - "probability": 0.33240000000000003, + "probability": 0.3369, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "62", + "numforecasts": "63", "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000" @@ -561,32 +605,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1329, + "probability": 0.12960000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.4524, + "probability": 0.44380000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.2904, + "probability": 0.30010000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.09720000000000001, + "probability": 0.09960000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000", - "probability": 0.0271, + "probability": 0.027000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "131", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000" }, @@ -598,12 +642,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 0.45%", - "probability": 0.0489, + "probability": 0.049699999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1866, + "probability": 0.1891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -613,16 +657,16 @@ }, { "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", - "probability": 0.21969999999999998, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2503, + "probability": 0.2466, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasts": "58", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.45%, Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive, More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%, More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%, More than 1.2%" @@ -635,17 +679,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "134", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -657,22 +701,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.4242, + "probability": 0.4311, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.3281, + "probability": 0.321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.24760000000000001, + "probability": 0.24789999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "108", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "116", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two or more" }, @@ -684,31 +728,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 20%", - "probability": 0.0959, + "probability": 0.0941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1766, + "probability": 0.1827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%", - "probability": 0.361, + "probability": 0.3671, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%", - "probability": 0.24760000000000001, + "probability": 0.2427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 35%", - "probability": 0.11900000000000001, + "probability": 0.1134, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "65", + "numforecasts": "68", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20%, Between 20% and 25%, inclusive, More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%, More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%, More than 35%" @@ -721,16 +765,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "295", + "numforecasts": "305", "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -743,26 +787,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0348, + "probability": 0.0342, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1032, + "probability": 0.09359999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.23579999999999998, + "probability": 0.2275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6262, + "probability": 0.6446999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "220", + "numforecasts": "228", "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" @@ -775,31 +819,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.12789999999999999, + "probability": 0.1266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18420000000000003, + "probability": 0.18030000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2625, + "probability": 0.26539999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.28800000000000003, + "probability": 0.2919, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.1374, + "probability": 0.1358, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "219", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%" @@ -812,31 +856,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 15%", - "probability": 0.07919999999999999, + "probability": 0.0799, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1931, + "probability": 0.1935, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%", - "probability": 0.3221, + "probability": 0.3193, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", - "probability": 0.2644, + "probability": 0.2656, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 21%", - "probability": 0.1413, + "probability": 0.1418, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasts": "145", "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%" @@ -849,16 +893,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", + "numforecasts": "180", "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -871,32 +915,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.5%", - "probability": 0.066, + "probability": 0.0658, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13390000000000002, + "probability": 0.1349, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.2087, + "probability": 0.2091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.2833, + "probability": 0.2852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.3081, + "probability": 0.305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "199", - "numforecasters": "138", + "numforecasts": "203", + "numforecasters": "139", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%" }, @@ -908,32 +952,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.6076, + "probability": 0.6114, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2086, + "probability": 0.2072, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.0998, + "probability": 0.09880000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.0528, + "probability": 0.0519, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.031200000000000002, + "probability": 0.030699999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "146", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900" }, @@ -965,17 +1009,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8205128205128206, + "probability": 0.8212340425531914, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1794871794871794, + "probability": 0.17876595744680857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 234, - "numforecasters": 126, + "numforecasts": 235, + "numforecasters": 127, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1084,27 +1128,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5068067226890757, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4931932773109243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 119, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1126,6 +1149,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5068067226890757, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4931932773109243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1357,27 +1401,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8227500000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1772499999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 80, - "numforecasters": 63, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How good is your memory?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1399,6 +1422,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1630,27 +1674,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6111904761904762, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3888095238095238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 42, - "numforecasters": 33, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1672,6 +1695,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6111904761904762, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3888095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasters": 33, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1756,27 +1800,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1819,6 +1842,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1862,22 +1906,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5493617021276596, + "probability": 0.9027272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45063829787234044, + "probability": 0.09727272727272729, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1904,22 +1948,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "probability": 0.5493617021276596, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "probability": 0.45063829787234044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 47, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1988,22 +2032,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10552631578947368, + "probability": 0.4023809523809524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8944736842105263, + "probability": 0.5976190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 42, "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2029,27 +2073,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4023809523809524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5976190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 42, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2071,6 +2094,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10552631578947368, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8944736842105263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2134,27 +2178,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5855882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41441176470588237, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2177,22 +2200,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09692307692307692, + "probability": 0.5855882352941176, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9030769230769231, + "probability": 0.41441176470588237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 34, "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2218,6 +2241,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9030769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2239,69 +2283,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19347826086956524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8065217391304348, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2344,6 +2325,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2365,6 +2388,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2408,22 +2473,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20482758620689656, + "probability": 0.7019047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7951724137931034, + "probability": 0.2980952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2449,27 +2514,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7019047619047619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2980952380952381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2492,18 +2536,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "probability": 0.20482758620689656, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8688, + "probability": 0.7951724137931034, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7363999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2533,27 +2598,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7363999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2785,6 +2829,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0695, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9305, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2792,16 +2857,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8738461538461538, + "probability": 0.8364285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12615384615384617, + "probability": 0.1635714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2813,16 +2878,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8185714285714286, + "probability": 0.8006666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18142857142857138, + "probability": 0.19933333333333336, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4704761904761905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5295238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7947619047619048, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2848,6 +2955,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6031428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2869,6 +2997,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.542, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45799999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2891,43 +3040,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39685714285714285, + "probability": 0.484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6031428571428572, + "probability": 0.516, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4704761904761905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5295238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2974,111 +3102,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.484, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.516, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20523809523809525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7947619047619048, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.542, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45799999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7243478260869566, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2756521739130434, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0695, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9305, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3122,18 +3145,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "probability": 0.7243478260869566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "probability": 0.2756521739130434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6754545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3245454545454546, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3143,22 +3187,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6427777777777777, + "probability": 0.648, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35722222222222233, + "probability": 0.352, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3205,6 +3270,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6427777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35722222222222233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3227,22 +3313,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.648, + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.352, + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3268,132 +3354,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6754545454545454, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3245454545454546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4717391304347826, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5282608695652173, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3415,6 +3375,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3436,6 +3417,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4717391304347826, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5282608695652173, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3457,6 +3501,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08388888888888889, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9161111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3500,85 +3607,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08388888888888889, + "probability": 0.0811764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9161111111111111, + "probability": 0.9188235294117647, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6533333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.049, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3604,6 +3690,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7770588235294117, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2229411764705883, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42222222222222217, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3646,90 +3774,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6533333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7770588235294117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2229411764705883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0811764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9188235294117647, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3751,6 +3795,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.049, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3773,43 +3838,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5777777777777778, + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42222222222222217, + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3836,274 +3880,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, + "probability": 0.5936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, + "probability": 0.4064, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23450000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5852941176470589, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43473684210526314, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5652631578947369, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4150,6 +3942,258 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.294375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.705625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43473684210526314, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5652631578947369, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5852941176470589, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.933125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.926875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.073125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4171,153 +4215,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28214285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7178571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4339,6 +4236,174 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0955, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05941176470588236, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9405882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4360,6 +4425,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28214285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7178571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4403,43 +4531,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4465,321 +4593,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05941176470588236, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9405882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3830769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6169230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5135714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2764285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7235714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4801,111 +4614,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7389473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2610526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40842105263157896, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.591578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4446153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5553846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7324999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4949,18 +4657,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1336842105263158, + "probability": 0.40842105263157896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "probability": 0.591578947368421, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4970,43 +4678,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "probability": 0.045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "probability": 0.955, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, + "probability": 0.4446153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, + "probability": 0.5553846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5033,18 +4741,81 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "probability": 0.3830769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "probability": 0.6169230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5054,43 +4825,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.106875, + "probability": 0.6271428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.893125, + "probability": 0.3728571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5117,18 +4888,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.853125, + "probability": 0.2764285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14687499999999998, + "probability": 0.7235714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.106875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.893125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5158,6 +4950,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.320625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5180,23 +5014,212 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4310526315789474, + "probability": 0.2675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5689473684210526, + "probability": 0.7324999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7389473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2610526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 12, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.853125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.14687499999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1336842105263158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -5221,279 +5244,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9235714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5246666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4753333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.696923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.303076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5516,64 +5266,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14333333333333334, + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8566666666666667, + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 29, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6315384615384615, + "probability": 0.4310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3684615384615385, + "probability": 0.5689473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5600,64 +5350,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14166666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8583333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21076923076923082, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5684,22 +5392,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "100 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "probability": 0.6315384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "probability": 0.3684615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5788,6 +5517,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9235714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5809,6 +5580,111 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.696923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.303076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5830,6 +5706,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8566666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5851,27 +5769,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5894,86 +5791,149 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "probability": 0.1825, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "probability": 0.8175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8583333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -5998,426 +5958,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2809090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7190909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13666666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7783333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22166666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6439,6 +5979,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6460,27 +6063,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6502,6 +6084,111 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6523,6 +6210,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6565,48 +6273,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6628,6 +6294,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6649,6 +6378,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23377083333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7662291666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6670,6 +6420,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6712,48 +6483,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28428571428571425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7157142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6796,27 +6525,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6838,111 +6546,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23377083333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7662291666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03769230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9623076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6965,39 +6568,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "probability": 0.9325, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "probability": 0.0675, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7007,18 +6610,312 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "probability": 0.2888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "probability": 0.7112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03769230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9623076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.140625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.859375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2475, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7783333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22166666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": 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"Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -13118,79 +13162,16 @@ "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "50.00% (2 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "60.00% (3 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 4, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 9, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "28.57% (2 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7142857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 7, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "80.00% (4 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -13199,10 +13180,10 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", + "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13215,7 +13196,70 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 3, + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "25.00% (2 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 8, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "100.00% (6 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 6, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 6, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13223,27 +13267,6 @@ "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 2, - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", - "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", - "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { @@ -13261,6 +13284,27 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", + "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", + "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", + "description": "25.00% (1 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 4, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", @@ -13769,7 +13813,7 @@ "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 19) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13782,7 +13826,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13790,20 +13834,20 @@ "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "4.17% (1 out of 24) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", + "description": "4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.041666666666666664, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9583333333333334, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18415,12 +18459,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -18431,7 +18475,7 @@ "title": "What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.", + "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 21 million barrels per day", @@ -18470,12 +18514,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -18535,17 +18579,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -18599,12 +18643,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18634,12 +18678,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18656,41 +18700,6 @@ "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021" }, - { - "title": "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "Closed 28 March 2021; resolved as \"B: Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive\" The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 275,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 300,000 but less than 350,000", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 500,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 275,000, Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but less than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive, More than 500,000" - }, { "title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", @@ -18699,12 +18708,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18738,12 +18747,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18913,12 +18922,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18947,8 +18956,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "48", + "numforecasts": "103", + "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18969,8 +18978,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "40", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "70", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18982,12 +18991,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18997,7 +19006,7 @@ }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19006,8 +19015,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "105", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "110", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else" }, @@ -19038,8 +19047,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "36", - "numforecasters": "28", + "numforecasts": "44", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more" }, @@ -19065,8 +19074,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "63", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "73", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -19083,17 +19092,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19102,8 +19111,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "51", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0" }, @@ -19120,7 +19129,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19130,17 +19139,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3.1%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "104", - "numforecasters": "70", + "numforecasts": "111", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%" }, @@ -19157,22 +19166,22 @@ }, { "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mank", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19187,7 +19196,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19196,8 +19205,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "83", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "91", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome" }, @@ -19219,17 +19228,17 @@ }, { "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19238,7 +19247,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "58", + "numforecasts": "63", "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome" @@ -19260,8 +19269,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "127", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19288,17 +19297,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "219", - "numforecasters": "122", + "numforecasts": "246", + "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million" }, @@ -19310,7 +19319,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19325,22 +19334,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "114", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" }, @@ -19352,17 +19361,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "105", - "numforecasters": "75", + "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19379,12 +19388,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19403,8 +19412,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "numforecasters": "44", + "numforecasts": "72", + "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021" }, @@ -19416,27 +19425,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", - "numforecasters": "98", + "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -19448,17 +19457,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "64", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "66", + "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19470,7 +19479,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19480,7 +19489,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19499,78 +19508,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "194", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" }, - { - "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 115,000,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "694", - "numforecasters": "161", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" - }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019", @@ -19579,17 +19521,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "147", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19601,22 +19543,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2 or more", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "81", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more" }, @@ -19637,8 +19579,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "542", - "numforecasters": "378", + "numforecasts": "552", + "numforecasters": "387", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19655,27 +19597,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", - "numforecasters": "270", + "numforecasts": "428", + "numforecasters": "276", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -19696,8 +19638,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "432", - "numforecasters": "347", + "numforecasts": "452", + "numforecasters": "363", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19718,8 +19660,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", - "numforecasters": "196", + "numforecasts": "251", + "numforecasters": "201", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19746,17 +19688,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 14,000,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "313", - "numforecasters": "201", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "207", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -19792,7 +19734,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "26", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" @@ -19829,8 +19771,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "192", - "numforecasters": "95", + "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" }, @@ -19847,12 +19789,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19866,8 +19808,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" }, @@ -19879,12 +19821,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19893,8 +19835,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "143", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" }, @@ -19920,8 +19862,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "568", - "numforecasters": "357", + "numforecasts": "584", + "numforecasters": "367", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -19942,8 +19884,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "49", + "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19964,8 +19906,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "193", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19977,17 +19919,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "221", - "numforecasters": "77", + "numforecasts": "227", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19999,17 +19941,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "54", + "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20030,8 +19972,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "270", - "numforecasters": "120", + "numforecasts": "276", + "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20052,8 +19994,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "194", - "numforecasters": "142", + "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasters": "145", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20084,8 +20026,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "186", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "192", + "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -20106,8 +20048,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20124,7 +20066,7 @@ }, { "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20134,7 +20076,7 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20148,7 +20090,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasts": "155", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" @@ -20161,17 +20103,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "164", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20192,8 +20134,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "118", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20214,8 +20156,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "309", - "numforecasters": "112", + "numforecasts": "321", + "numforecasters": "118", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20227,12 +20169,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20246,8 +20188,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "257", - "numforecasters": "144", + "numforecasts": "261", + "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -20264,12 +20206,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20283,8 +20225,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" }, @@ -20305,8 +20247,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "104", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20323,17 +20265,17 @@ }, { "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "97", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -20345,17 +20287,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "236", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20376,7 +20318,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20398,8 +20340,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "291", - "numforecasters": "155", + "numforecasts": "303", + "numforecasters": "161", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20407,7 +20349,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#66050a07140f000f0507120f09081526010909020c1302010b0308124805090b591513040c0305125b37130315120f0908435456250a07140f000f0507120f0908). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5d3e313c2f343b343e3c293432332e1d3a3232393728393a30383329733e3230622e283f37383e29600c28382e29343233786f6d1e313c2f343b343e3c29343233). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -20420,8 +20362,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "410", - "numforecasters": "197", + "numforecasts": "415", + "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20443,12 +20385,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20457,48 +20399,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasts": "451", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" }, - { - "title": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The infection rate (also known as Rt) \"is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect\" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table \"Compare,\" set to \"States,\" under \"INFECTION RATE.\" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 8 and 14", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 22 and 28", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "29 or more", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "694", - "numforecasters": "128", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" - }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea", @@ -20529,17 +20434,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "311", - "numforecasters": "147", + "numforecasts": "320", + "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20560,7 +20465,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", + "numforecasts": "90", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20573,7 +20478,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20583,7 +20488,7 @@ }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20592,8 +20497,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "191", - "numforecasters": "93", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" }, @@ -20632,22 +20537,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "225", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "231", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" }, @@ -20668,7 +20573,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasts": "113", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20705,7 +20610,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", + "numforecasts": "253", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" @@ -20727,8 +20632,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "174", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "179", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20740,7 +20645,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20750,12 +20655,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "130", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "134", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No" }, @@ -20767,17 +20672,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", - "numforecasters": "139", + "numforecasts": "295", + "numforecasters": "144", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20789,17 +20694,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "263", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "268", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20820,7 +20725,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasts": "113", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20847,8 +20752,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "196", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "197", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -20874,7 +20779,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasts": "213", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" @@ -20892,17 +20797,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20911,7 +20816,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "290", + "numforecasts": "294", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -20933,7 +20838,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "227", + "numforecasts": "228", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20960,7 +20865,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasts": "115", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -20995,17 +20900,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "242", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "255", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21031,7 +20936,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "497", + "numforecasts": "500", "numforecasters": "197", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" @@ -21049,7 +20954,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only by the EMA", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21059,12 +20964,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "456", - "numforecasters": "217", + "numforecasts": "462", + "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" }, @@ -21085,7 +20990,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21107,7 +21012,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "377", + "numforecasts": "378", "numforecasters": "228", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21129,8 +21034,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "300", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "303", + "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21161,7 +21066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "358", + "numforecasts": "362", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" @@ -21183,7 +21088,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "255", + "numforecasts": "258", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21206,7 +21111,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21216,12 +21121,12 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "278", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" }, @@ -21264,8 +21169,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", - "numforecasters": "209", + "numforecasts": "420", + "numforecasters": "212", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21326,7 +21231,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21336,7 +21241,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21345,7 +21250,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "282", + "numforecasts": "286", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50" @@ -21399,8 +21304,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "504", + "numforecasters": "216", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21412,7 +21317,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21427,12 +21332,12 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21441,8 +21346,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "225", - "numforecasters": "83", + "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" }, @@ -21454,17 +21359,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "617", - "numforecasters": "202", + "numforecasts": "630", + "numforecasters": "207", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21481,7 +21386,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21496,12 +21401,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "576", - "numforecasters": "253", + "numforecasts": "581", + "numforecasters": "256", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" }, @@ -21537,8 +21442,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1893", - "numforecasters": "616", + "numforecasts": "1920", + "numforecasters": "630", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -21569,8 +21474,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "525", - "numforecasters": "218", + "numforecasts": "526", + "numforecasters": "219", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" }, @@ -21591,8 +21496,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "346", - "numforecasters": "209", + "numforecasts": "356", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21613,8 +21518,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "588", - "numforecasters": "255", + "numforecasts": "599", + "numforecasters": "259", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21635,7 +21540,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasts": "243", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21679,8 +21584,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "339", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "341", + "numforecasters": "168", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21707,17 +21612,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "336", - "numforecasters": "89", + "numforecasts": "346", + "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -21760,8 +21665,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "335", - "numforecasters": "174", + "numforecasts": "337", + "numforecasters": "175", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21782,8 +21687,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", - "numforecasters": "107", + "numforecasts": "277", + "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21819,8 +21724,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1498", - "numforecasters": "214", + "numforecasts": "1512", + "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" }, @@ -21832,17 +21737,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "305", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "311", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21900,7 +21805,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" @@ -21922,7 +21827,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasts": "137", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21959,8 +21864,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "582", - "numforecasters": "157", + "numforecasts": "587", + "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" }, @@ -21981,7 +21886,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "781", + "numforecasts": "788", "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21994,17 +21899,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22018,8 +21923,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "530", - "numforecasters": "233", + "numforecasts": "539", + "numforecasters": "238", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -22046,52 +21951,20 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 million", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "516", + "numforecasts": "522", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" }, - { - "title": "When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 December 2020", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "498", - "numforecasters": "77", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" - }, { "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional", @@ -22131,8 +22004,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "161", + "numforecasts": "428", + "numforecasters": "162", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22144,7 +22017,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22154,7 +22027,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22164,7 +22037,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22178,7 +22051,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "391", + "numforecasts": "393", "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" @@ -22215,8 +22088,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "711", - "numforecasters": "205", + "numforecasts": "716", + "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" }, @@ -22237,8 +22110,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1188", - "numforecasters": "457", + "numforecasts": "1199", + "numforecasters": "461", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22259,7 +22132,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "391", + "numforecasts": "392", "numforecasters": "161", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22303,7 +22176,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "744", + "numforecasts": "748", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22340,8 +22213,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "895", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "900", + "numforecasters": "168", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" }, @@ -22362,7 +22235,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "211", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22384,7 +22257,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", + "numforecasts": "330", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22406,8 +22279,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "662", - "numforecasters": "186", + "numforecasts": "666", + "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22443,8 +22316,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "477", - "numforecasters": "97", + "numforecasts": "478", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more" }, @@ -22475,8 +22348,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "340", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "350", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -22488,17 +22361,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 25,000", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22512,8 +22385,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "379", - "numforecasters": "121", + "numforecasts": "382", + "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000" }, @@ -22530,22 +22403,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "315", - "numforecasters": "109", + "numforecasts": "319", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" }, @@ -22562,12 +22435,12 @@ }, { "name": "1 or 2", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or 4", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22581,8 +22454,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "289", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more" }, @@ -22613,8 +22486,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "911", - "numforecasters": "311", + "numforecasts": "919", + "numforecasters": "318", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -22657,8 +22530,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "681", - "numforecasters": "143", + "numforecasts": "685", + "numforecasters": "144", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22670,12 +22543,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, a firm", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22685,12 +22558,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", - "numforecasters": "95", + "numforecasts": "254", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -22712,22 +22585,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "263", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million" }, @@ -22763,7 +22636,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasts": "241", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500" @@ -22800,8 +22673,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1220", - "numforecasters": "192", + "numforecasts": "1231", + "numforecasters": "199", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million" }, @@ -22823,17 +22696,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2255", - "numforecasters": "907", + "numforecasts": "2280", + "numforecasters": "922", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -22854,8 +22727,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "246", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22867,17 +22740,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1127", - "numforecasters": "478", + "numforecasts": "1140", + "numforecasters": "485", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22913,7 +22786,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasts": "302", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000" @@ -22982,8 +22855,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "399", - "numforecasters": "219", + "numforecasts": "401", + "numforecasters": "221", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -23041,7 +22914,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "288", + "numforecasts": "290", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh" @@ -23064,12 +22937,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23078,8 +22951,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "444", - "numforecasters": "149", + "numforecasts": "447", + "numforecasters": "151", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%" }, @@ -23134,12 +23007,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9047619047619047, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23174,12 +23047,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, more than 121", - "probability": 0.23958333333333337, + "probability": 0.24742268041237112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, not more than 121", - "probability": 0.7604166666666667, + "probability": 0.7525773195876287, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23279,22 +23152,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.712871287128713, + "probability": 0.7474747474747475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.08080808080808081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.17821782178217824, + "probability": 0.1414141414141414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.030303030303030304, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23329,17 +23202,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.7142857142857143, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.08571428571428572, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23394,32 +23267,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.010416666666666668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.017094017094017092, + "probability": 0.04166666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.2222222222222222, + "probability": 0.14583333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.28205128205128205, + "probability": 0.31250000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.47008547008547, + "probability": 0.48958333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23434,27 +23307,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.49504950495049505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12871287128712872, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23489,22 +23362,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.08888888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.07777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.8019801980198019, + "probability": 0.7777777777777779, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23564,12 +23437,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44696969696969696, + "probability": 0.4296875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5530303030303031, + "probability": 0.5703125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23659,7 +23532,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.9313725490196079, + "probability": 0.8137254901960784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23679,7 +23552,7 @@ }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.1568627450980392, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23694,27 +23567,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.3300970873786408, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.34951456310679613, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.1650485436893204, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23754,17 +23627,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2604166666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.23958333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23779,32 +23652,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.32291666666666674, + "probability": 0.2767857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.46875, + "probability": 0.4017857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.04166666666666667, + "probability": 0.03571428571428572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.05208333333333334, + "probability": 0.044642857142857144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.10416666666666669, + "probability": 0.23214285714285715, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.010416666666666668, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23819,27 +23692,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.03296703296703297, + "probability": 0.0707070707070707, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.3296703296703297, + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.18681318681318682, + "probability": 0.17171717171717174, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.2087912087912088, + "probability": 0.19191919191919193, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.2417582417582418, + "probability": 0.23232323232323235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23854,7 +23727,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23864,12 +23737,12 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23884,22 +23757,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.8712871287128712, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23954,12 +23827,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9509803921568627, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04901960784313725, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23974,12 +23847,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24957,37 +24830,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.35524640286087616, + "probability": 0.403238358456856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.034158307967391936, + "probability": 0.034895627174151005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.0807378188320173, + "probability": 0.08248057332072055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008793227793586043, + "probability": 0.008983032737900258, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017414039355925302, + "probability": 0.01778992757897894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.42291238435818584, + "probability": 0.38282122638309113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.0807378188320173, + "probability": 0.06979125434830201, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25902,57 +25775,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.44229638394840987, + "probability": 0.4403774895962038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.49144042660934434, + "probability": 0.4893083217735598, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.004381865568121431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.017344956233270977, + "probability": 0.017269705474360936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.004381865568121431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, + "probability": 0.0017579939704439273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, + "probability": 0.0017579939704439273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Womens Equality Party", - "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, + "probability": 0.0017579939704439273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "North East Party", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.004381865568121431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Lee (Ind)", - "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "probability": 0.008720346328637699, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)", - "probability": 0.026017434349906464, + "probability": 0.0259045582115414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25966,22 +25839,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 5%", - "probability": 0.5433431584928442, + "probability": 0.5772727913500711, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5-10%", - "probability": 0.3024610248943499, + "probability": 0.278867163821419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10-20%", - "probability": 0.10082034163144997, + "probability": 0.10070203137995686, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 20%", - "probability": 0.05337547498135587, + "probability": 0.04315801344855294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26024,92 +25897,92 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan (Lab)", - "probability": 0.901479561045341, + "probability": 0.8759566247820383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey (Cons)", - "probability": 0.044215426089366724, + "probability": 0.035038264991281536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sian Berry (Green)", - "probability": 0.004619522128739807, + "probability": 0.004532312884444377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten (Heritage)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London (Ind)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)", - "probability": 0.004619522128739807, + "probability": 0.004532312884444377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose (Ind)", - "probability": 0.018206351919151004, + "probability": 0.05358793469254823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid (WEP)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nims Obunge (Ind)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "DrillMinister", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Winston McKenzie", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kam Balayev (Renew)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox (Reclaim)", - "probability": 0.004619522128739807, + "probability": 0.004532312884444377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh (Ind)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)", - "probability": 0.001853341213326749, + "probability": 0.00181835307339984, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26388,177 +26261,182 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jackson Carlaw", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Ross", - "probability": 0.04879191719970918, + "probability": 0.04861506274835883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michelle Ballantyne", - "probability": 0.003304631842211379, + "probability": 0.0032926536522792835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Monica Lennon", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Galloway", + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alex Salmond", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.01620502091611961, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anas Sarwar", - "probability": 0.02439595859985459, + "probability": 0.04861506274835883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Murray", - "probability": 0.0016556139568763592, + "probability": 0.0016496129076289422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angus Robertson", - "probability": 0.13824376539917602, + "probability": 0.16529121334442004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Coburn", - "probability": 0.0016556139568763592, + "probability": 0.0016496129076289422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Derek Mackay", - "probability": 0.02439595859985459, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Humza Yousaf", - "probability": 0.0638048147996197, + "probability": 0.07513236970200911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeane Freeman", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Swinney", - "probability": 0.11849465605643658, + "probability": 0.11806515238887144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keith Brown", - "probability": 0.0638048147996197, + "probability": 0.0635735435940077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mhairi Black", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.03178677179700385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Matheson", - "probability": 0.012380038692463523, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Findlay", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Murrell", - "probability": 0.012380038692463523, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Wishart", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Philippa Whitford", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shona Robison", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.01620502091611961, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stewart Hosie", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.01620502091611961, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stuart Campbell", - "probability": 0.0016556139568763592, + "probability": 0.0016496129076289422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tommy Sheppard", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Willie Rennie", - "probability": 0.008212500914802535, + "probability": 0.00818273333388218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Leonard", - "probability": 0.004126679564154508, + "probability": 0.004111721724985573, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Forbes", - "probability": 0.11849465605643658, + "probability": 0.09182845185801113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ash Denham", - "probability": 0.01626397239990306, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley-Anne Somerville", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Russell", - "probability": 0.03190240739980985, + "probability": 0.024307531374179413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joanna Cherry", - "probability": 0.07540569021773237, + "probability": 0.0635735435940077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Wilson", - "probability": 0.012380038692463523, + "probability": 0.012335165174956718, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jackson Carlaw, Douglas Ross, Michelle Ballantyne, Monica Lennon, Alex Salmond, Anas Sarwar, Andy Murray, Angus Robertson, David Coburn, Derek Mackay, Humza Yousaf, Jeane Freeman, John Swinney, Keith Brown, Mhairi Black, Michael Matheson, Neil Findlay, Peter Murrell, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Ruth Davidson, Shona Robison, Stewart Hosie, Stuart Campbell, Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh, Tommy Sheppard, Willie Rennie, Richard Leonard, Kate Forbes, Ash Denham, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Michael Russell, Joanna Cherry, Andrew Wilson" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jackson Carlaw, Douglas Ross, Michelle Ballantyne, Monica Lennon, George Galloway, Alex Salmond, Anas Sarwar, Andy Murray, Angus Robertson, David Coburn, Derek Mackay, Humza Yousaf, Jeane Freeman, John Swinney, Keith Brown, Mhairi Black, Michael Matheson, Neil Findlay, Peter Murrell, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Ruth Davidson, Shona Robison, Stewart Hosie, Stuart Campbell, Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh, Tommy Sheppard, Willie Rennie, Richard Leonard, Kate Forbes, Ash Denham, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Michael Russell, Joanna Cherry, Andrew Wilson" }, { "title": "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats", @@ -26625,32 +26503,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.02666987448435308, + "probability": 0.026276647470071912, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3627102929872019, + "probability": 0.3970693395477533, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.5926638774300685, + "probability": 0.5164196612615289, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.008977977549188167, + "probability": 0.008845604098836089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.008977977549188167, + "probability": 0.008845604098836089, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alba", + "probability": 0.04254314352297357, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats" + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats, Alba" }, { "title": "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share", @@ -27645,21 +27528,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 269, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", @@ -27677,7 +27587,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -27688,36 +27598,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?", @@ -27810,6 +27715,76 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 147, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/", @@ -27826,6 +27801,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", + "numforecasts": 215, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", @@ -27843,7 +27834,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", @@ -27854,18 +27845,72 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", + "numforecasts": 668, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "numforecasts": 504, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27885,6 +27930,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", + "numforecasts": 72, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", @@ -27913,21 +27990,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", + "numforecasts": 125, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", @@ -27944,6 +28048,140 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", + "numforecasts": 116, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 236, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 248, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", @@ -27961,7 +28199,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -27972,21 +28210,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", @@ -27994,17 +28275,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", @@ -28014,6 +28295,129 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", + "numforecasts": 124, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", + "numforecasts": 189, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 130, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", @@ -28057,6 +28461,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", + "numforecasts": 226, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", + "numforecasts": 181, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/", @@ -28085,18 +28521,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28117,31 +28580,52 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 363, + "options": [], + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 214, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will PHP die?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", @@ -28175,6 +28659,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", @@ -28192,32 +28730,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/", @@ -28246,28 +28800,109 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 373, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "numforecasts": 387, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 243, + "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -28278,18 +28913,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28309,22 +28960,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", @@ -28341,6 +28976,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", + "numforecasts": 44, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", @@ -28385,18 +29036,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28417,34 +29068,77 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28464,6 +29158,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 368, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", @@ -28496,49 +29244,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", @@ -28567,29 +29272,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 656, + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28620,49 +29357,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", @@ -28680,34 +29374,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28727,6 +29405,70 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", @@ -28744,36 +29486,111 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "numforecasts": 324, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -28786,60 +29603,76 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 260, + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/", @@ -28883,6 +29716,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", + "numforecasts": 279, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -28926,33 +29786,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 279, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", @@ -29001,6 +29834,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", @@ -29018,20 +29867,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "numforecasts": 153, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", @@ -29076,6 +29936,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", @@ -29092,6 +29968,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", + "numforecasts": 691, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -29108,29 +30027,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -29156,6 +30059,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 75, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -29199,6 +30145,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", @@ -29248,7 +30210,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", @@ -29264,7 +30226,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "numforecasts": 269, + "numforecasts": 271, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -29281,17 +30243,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -29302,29 +30264,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -29335,17 +30297,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -29387,22 +30349,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", @@ -29420,7 +30366,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", @@ -29430,6 +30376,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 154, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", @@ -29446,22 +30408,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", - "numforecasts": 158, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/", @@ -29479,18 +30425,66 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will PHP die?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 276, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", + "numforecasts": 158, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "numforecasts": 134, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -29522,61 +30516,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 1163, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -29613,20 +30575,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 98, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", + "numforecasts": 569, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", @@ -29645,7 +30618,7 @@ } ], "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 972, + "numforecasts": 973, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", @@ -29655,29 +30628,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -29687,22 +30644,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", - "numforecasts": 403, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -29746,6 +30687,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", @@ -29762,6 +30719,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", @@ -29784,7 +30757,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -29827,7 +30800,7 @@ } ], "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 382, + "numforecasts": 383, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", @@ -29939,6 +30912,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1357, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", + "numforecasts": 286, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", @@ -29966,22 +30993,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", @@ -30025,6 +31036,65 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 178, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", + "numforecasts": 403, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", @@ -30042,18 +31112,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 196, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30074,7 +31144,7 @@ } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -30085,36 +31155,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", + "numforecasts": 302, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 138, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?", @@ -30245,13 +31310,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", + "numforecasts": 123, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -30278,7 +31359,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 208, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -30320,33 +31401,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 287, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/", @@ -30374,6 +31428,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 292, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", @@ -30390,6 +31471,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 124, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", @@ -30417,6 +31514,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 120, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", @@ -30444,6 +31584,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", + "numforecasts": 67, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", @@ -30461,7 +31655,7 @@ } ], "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "numforecasts": 462, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", @@ -30471,33 +31665,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 324, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", @@ -30521,17 +31688,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 589, + "numforecasts": 592, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -30596,45 +31763,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30692,6 +31843,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", @@ -30709,56 +31876,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "options": [], + "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 220, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30806,18 +31978,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 482, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30837,13 +32009,110 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 159, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 233, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 183, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", + "numforecasts": 239, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 234, + "numforecasts": 236, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -30853,22 +32122,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 673, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", @@ -30897,18 +32150,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 263, + "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30939,22 +32192,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", @@ -30982,49 +32219,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", @@ -31057,33 +32251,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 116, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -31111,22 +32278,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", @@ -31143,65 +32294,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 46, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", @@ -31218,6 +32310,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", @@ -31234,22 +32358,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", @@ -31309,33 +32417,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", @@ -31423,31 +32504,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1349, + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 721, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", @@ -31535,22 +32605,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", @@ -31632,6 +32686,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", + "numforecasts": 2849, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", @@ -31648,60 +32729,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2808, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -31745,33 +32772,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/", @@ -31799,60 +32799,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", @@ -31870,7 +32816,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 144, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -31880,65 +32826,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", @@ -31955,33 +32842,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/", @@ -32074,7 +32934,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1262, + "numforecasts": 1266, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", @@ -32198,36 +33058,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", + "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 983, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", + "numforecasts": 264, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", @@ -32245,87 +33100,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", - "numforecasts": 387, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", - "numforecasts": 234, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", @@ -32358,22 +33132,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/", @@ -32381,17 +33139,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -32417,33 +33175,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", @@ -32487,22 +33218,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 226, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", @@ -32530,22 +33245,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", @@ -32616,29 +33315,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 214, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -32697,7 +33380,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 181, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -32852,6 +33535,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", @@ -32890,7 +33589,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -33008,7 +33707,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -33132,7 +33831,7 @@ } ], "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -33410,22 +34109,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", @@ -33443,18 +34126,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -33533,22 +34216,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -33630,38 +34297,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -33717,17 +34352,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 519, + "numforecasts": 526, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", @@ -33968,22 +34603,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", @@ -34027,6 +34646,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", @@ -34199,7 +34834,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -34355,7 +34990,7 @@ } ], "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -34641,17 +35276,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 221, + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -34817,6 +35452,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", + "numforecasts": 303, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", @@ -34844,33 +35506,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "numforecasts": 302, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", @@ -34947,7 +35582,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -34957,49 +35592,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 564, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/", @@ -35017,7 +35609,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 357, + "numforecasts": 358, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -35028,15 +35620,15 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" @@ -35049,7 +35641,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -35145,29 +35737,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -35177,6 +35753,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", @@ -35226,7 +35818,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -35333,22 +35925,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 366, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -35408,22 +35984,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", @@ -35441,7 +36001,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 721, + "numforecasts": 722, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -35451,6 +36011,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", @@ -35601,6 +36177,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", + "numforecasts": 45, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/", @@ -35633,33 +36236,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/", @@ -35869,33 +36445,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 138, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/", @@ -36116,6 +36665,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", + "numforecasts": 155, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/", @@ -36148,22 +36713,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", @@ -36228,33 +36777,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 219, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", @@ -36283,48 +36805,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 492, + "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", @@ -36352,33 +36858,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", @@ -36395,33 +36874,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 537, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -36450,45 +36902,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1163, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 538, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -36552,7 +36988,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 252, + "numforecasts": 268, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -36632,33 +37068,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -36718,38 +37127,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 156, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", @@ -36777,6 +37154,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", @@ -36976,7 +37369,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", @@ -37002,22 +37395,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/", @@ -37025,17 +37402,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 127, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -37045,22 +37422,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "numforecasts": 213, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -37088,22 +37449,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -37147,22 +37492,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", @@ -37180,7 +37509,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 234, + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -37190,6 +37519,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", @@ -37271,7 +37616,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", @@ -37367,33 +37712,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 146, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/", @@ -37523,33 +37841,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", - "numforecasts": 114, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", @@ -37593,33 +37884,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", @@ -37647,22 +37911,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", @@ -37680,7 +37928,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", @@ -37690,6 +37938,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -37712,7 +37976,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -37770,22 +38034,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", @@ -37819,7 +38067,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 296, + "numforecasts": 297, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -37856,6 +38104,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", @@ -37873,7 +38137,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1262, + "numforecasts": 1264, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", @@ -38013,7 +38277,7 @@ } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 270, + "numforecasts": 271, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -38056,7 +38320,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -38457,22 +38721,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", @@ -38596,22 +38844,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", @@ -38655,22 +38887,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", @@ -38854,22 +39070,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/", @@ -38886,6 +39086,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/", @@ -39090,33 +39306,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", @@ -39160,29 +39349,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 479, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -39251,22 +39424,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", @@ -39438,33 +39595,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/", @@ -39669,6 +39799,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/", @@ -39685,22 +39831,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/", @@ -39717,33 +39847,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 689, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/", @@ -39782,7 +39885,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -39905,22 +40008,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/", @@ -40431,33 +40518,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 299, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/", @@ -40549,22 +40609,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/", @@ -40839,33 +40883,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/", @@ -40952,7 +40969,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -40978,6 +40995,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -41005,22 +41038,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/", @@ -41167,7 +41184,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -41199,7 +41216,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 132, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", @@ -41301,7 +41318,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 231, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -41333,7 +41350,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -41435,7 +41452,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 459, + "numforecasts": 461, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", @@ -41478,7 +41495,7 @@ } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 575, + "numforecasts": 583, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -42234,22 +42251,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", @@ -42320,7 +42321,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 226, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -42610,7 +42611,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -42695,22 +42696,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/", @@ -42727,22 +42712,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/", @@ -42974,29 +42943,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -43055,7 +43008,7 @@ } ], "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.\nWill Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -43179,7 +43132,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -43189,33 +43142,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -43243,6 +43169,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/", @@ -43266,17 +43219,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n", - "numforecasts": 471, + "numforecasts": 476, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -43539,7 +43492,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 366, + "numforecasts": 367, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -43673,7 +43626,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 281, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -43727,7 +43680,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [\"A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology\".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)\nThe respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.\nAn individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.\nThe design calls for twelve pumping stations to be spaced evenly along an equatorial circle. Each station has its own independent glucose-metabolizing powerplant, glucose tank, environmental glucose sensors, and glucose sorting rotors. Each station alone can generate sufficient energy to power the entire respirocyte, and has an array of 3-stage molecular sorting rotor assemblies for pumping O2, CO2, and H2O from the ambient medium into an interior chamber, and vice versa. The number of rotor sorters in each array is determined both by performance requirements and by the anticipated concentration of each target molecule in the bloodstream.\nThe equatorial pumping station network occupies ~50% of respirocyte surface. On the remaining surface, a universal \"bar code\" consisting of concentric circular patterns of shallow rounded ridges is embossed on each side, centered on the \"north pole\" and \"south pole\" of the device. This coding permits easy product identification by an attending physician with a small blood sample and access to an electron microscope, and may also allow rapid reading by other more sophisticated medical nanorobots which might be deployed in the future.\nThe promise of artificial mechanical red cells is that it gives physicians the ability to precisely control saturation curve profiles independently for oxygen and carbon dioxide, either to maximize gas transport efficiency or to meet specialized demand functions imposed by emergency situations, unusual activities, or specific medical treatments.\nRespirocytes are an example of molecular nanotechnology, a field of technology still in the very earliest, purely hypothetical phase of development. Current technology is not sufficient to build a respirocyte due to considerations of power, atomic-scale manipulation, immune reaction or toxicity, computation and communication. Creation of this kind of device would require multiple technological breakthroughs. For further information on respirocytes, see e.g. [this essay by Freitas.](http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?\nResolves positively upon the publication of an article in a respectable scientific journal indicating that such devices have been successfully used in a living mammal to meaningfully augment and or replace (partially or totally) the existing supply of red blood cells. A meaningful augmentation is an augmentation resulting in a non-trivial increase in overall performance of the existing red cell population. These respirocytes will need to be perform at least some gas transport function, and be principally the product of nanotechnology techniques, including (but not limited to) those outlined by [Freitas' article](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html). This therefore excludes transfusions of modified red blood cells from existing organisms. Finally, the mammal needs to survive at least 7 days after the introduction of the respirocytes.\n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -44102,33 +44055,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 234, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/", @@ -44172,6 +44098,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/", @@ -44387,33 +44340,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 651, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -44441,13 +44367,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 652, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -44753,7 +44706,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -45123,7 +45076,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -45133,33 +45086,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 195, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", @@ -45187,6 +45113,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 198, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", @@ -45220,7 +45173,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 231, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -45252,7 +45205,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -45321,33 +45274,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 700, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", @@ -45391,6 +45317,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", + "numforecasts": 702, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/", @@ -45439,33 +45392,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin),\nan American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world.\nChauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added.\nSome have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From [a Medium post](https://medium.com/@gavrilodavid/why-derek-chauvin-may-get-off-his-murder-charge-2e2ad8d0911),\nThere are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of a murder charge. [...]\n1-- \nGeorge Floyd was experiencing cardiopulmonary and psychological distress minutes before he was placed on the ground, let alone had a knee to his neck.\n2-- \nThe Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) allows the use of neck restraint on suspects who actively resist arrest, and George Floyd actively resisted arrest on two occasions, including immediately prior to neck restraint being used.\n3-- \nThe officers were recorded on their body cams assessing George Floyd as suffering from “excited delirium syndrome” (ExDS), a condition which the MPD considers an extreme threat to both the officers and the suspect. A white paper used by the MPD acknowledges that ExDS suspects may die irrespective of force involved. The officers’ response to this situation was in line with MPD guidelines for ExDS.\n4-- \nRestraining the suspect on his or her abdomen (prone restraint) is a common tactic in ExDS situations, and the white paper used by the MPD instructs the officers to control the suspect until paramedics arrive.\n5-- \nFloyd’s autopsy revealed a potentially lethal concoction of drugs — not just a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl, but also methamphetamine. Together with his history of drug abuse and two serious heart conditions, Floyd’s condition was exceptionally and unusually fragile.\n6-- \nChauvin’s neck restraint is unlikely to have exerted a dangerous amount of force to Floyd’s neck. Floyd is shown on video able to lift his head and neck, and a robust study on double-knee restraints showed a median force exertion of approximately approximately 105lbs.\nThis question resolves positively if Derek Chauvin is acquitted of ALL murder charges OR all murder charges against him are dropped. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If he dies before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\nOnly convictions for offences actually called \"murder\" trigger negative resolution ; conviction for other offences such as manslaughter does not.\n", - "numforecasts": 613, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/", @@ -45670,22 +45596,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nBefore this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet in a public outdoor place today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 233, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", @@ -45907,7 +45817,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -45934,7 +45844,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -47174,22 +47084,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", @@ -47222,6 +47116,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/", @@ -47518,7 +47428,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -47689,22 +47599,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3802/what-will-be-the-doubling-time-of-covid-19-cases-during-the-peak-growth-period-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 7 March 2020, more than 102,000 cases have been confirmed, of which 7,100 were classified as serious. 96 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.\nThis question asks what will be [the doubling time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time) of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?\nThe resolution will be based on the following equation that assumes exponential growth: \nThis question will follow as much as possible the resolution criteria described in [the question about the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/). In short, this question will resolve at the end of March 2021 and will use the best available data for the whole world as made available by WHO.\nThe will be the 20th of January, because [the first WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4) is for that day and it estimates 282 cases. The will be the last day of the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases. The time unit of and will be days.\nThe will be the total cumulative number of cases globally at the end of the month with the biggest increase. In other words, the number will be counted from the beginning of the outbreak and not during that single month.\nFor example, assume that February will be the month with the biggest growth then , will be the 29th February and .\nThis may differ from the official estimates because COVID-19 cases did not follow the exponential growth in February.\nThis question will resolve ambiguous if the question \"[Which month of 2020 will see the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\" will resolve ambiguous.\nYou may also want to take a look at: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 379, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/", @@ -47727,7 +47621,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -48651,7 +48545,7 @@ } ], "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", @@ -49103,12 +48997,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -50408,7 +50302,7 @@ } ], "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n", - "numforecasts": 198, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", @@ -50488,22 +50382,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5129/if-california-passes-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-what-will-ubers-adjusted-ebitda-for-the-mobility-segment-be-in-q1-2021/", @@ -50520,6 +50398,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -50875,7 +50769,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -51332,7 +51226,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 173, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -51585,7 +51479,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5109, + "numforecasts": 5110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -51601,7 +51495,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z", @@ -51897,7 +51791,7 @@ } ], "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "numforecasts": 462, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -52466,7 +52360,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -52665,7 +52559,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -52966,7 +52860,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", @@ -53154,7 +53048,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-17T00:00:00Z", @@ -53557,6 +53451,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 429, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", @@ -53584,33 +53505,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 427, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/", @@ -55062,7 +54956,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 181, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -55207,7 +55101,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", @@ -55534,6 +55428,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", + "numforecasts": 1372, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/", @@ -55561,33 +55482,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1368, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/", @@ -55760,7 +55654,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -55872,22 +55766,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n", - "numforecasts": 798, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will there be a mile-high building?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/", @@ -55904,6 +55782,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n", + "numforecasts": 798, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/", @@ -56898,7 +56792,7 @@ } ], "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -57155,33 +57049,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 283, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/", @@ -57354,6 +57221,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/", @@ -57371,7 +57254,7 @@ } ], "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n", - "numforecasts": 336, + "numforecasts": 338, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", @@ -57381,22 +57264,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n", - "numforecasts": 79, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/", @@ -57579,69 +57446,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07753824631498304305713109847982703", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.922461753685016956942868901520173", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "504", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4599317644432323598775687301012367", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5400682355567676401224312698987633", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8974107967751541143208149317438613", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1025892032248458856791850682561387", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "798", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", @@ -57650,148 +57454,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01394232389372196757070549823602875", + "probability": "0.0399522190901281473183703149667169", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9860576761062780324292945017639713", + "probability": "0.9600477809098718526816296850332831", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "15", + "numforecasts": "27", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1", + "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "$80M or Less", - "probability": "0.05744360602032953362501417765827628", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$81-105M", - "probability": "0.6714313199989959113997850001650252", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$106-120M", - "probability": "0.1558340346479539708610918819061469", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$121-135M", - "probability": "0.06367479538279264655713628485976061", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$136M or More", - "probability": "0.05161624394992793755697265541079074", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "203", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More" - }, - { - "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4061604608970735746980251586486453", + "probability": "0.07465307001144303222259539896004477", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5938395391029264253019748413513547", + "probability": "0.9253469299885569677774046010399552", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", - "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.811137805040424106412252281387405", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.188862194959575893587747718612595", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "3177", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07304455174120395584463620390808104", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.926955448258796044155363796091919", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "8243", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0002594014467534253739238797362305842", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9997405985532465746260761202637694", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "4314", + "numforecasts": "522", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57803,19 +57496,187 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9514096993620200431360981712878928", + "probability": "0.937185702542547745508723154303628", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.04859030063797995686390182871210717", + "probability": "0.062814297457452254491276845696372", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4", + "numforecasts": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4654295355935182330616479112119514", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5345704644064817669383520887880486", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "110", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.898486201143934842646828594587153", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.101513798856065157353171405412847", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "807", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.66316561303638583639322299764386", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.33683438696361416360677700235614", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "16", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9235015831361897357511964892828881", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.07649841686381026424880351071711195", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3457", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007799905818548978341181015069580178", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.999220009418145102165881898493042", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "188", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.02261135370733015122541638960314871", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9773886462926698487745836103968513", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "8474", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0003722103355381477775719659336543291", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9996277896644618522224280340663457", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4416", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1099230898121289621386529149208585", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8900769101878710378613470850791415", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "94", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", @@ -57824,19 +57685,40 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07590406992189588515175078805599503", + "probability": "0.0643262684347852793581318329432571", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.924095930078104114848249211944005", + "probability": "0.9356737315652147206418681670567429", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "411", + "numforecasts": "419", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2084574486646862799550090404443954", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7915425513353137200449909595556046", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "47", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", @@ -57845,37 +57727,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.04200290899238056378530487686460393", + "probability": "0.02570884192511618168598180798571647", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9579970910076194362146951231353961", + "probability": "0.9742911580748838183140181920142835", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.02304787940068400388231862024485495", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9769521205993159961176813797551451", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "726", + "numforecasts": "95", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57887,58 +57748,105 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1283821729293469028524210423415517", + "probability": "0.1531273744175666186166761496243497", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8716178270706530971475789576584483", + "probability": "0.8468726255824333813833238503756503", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasts": "78", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30", + "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.001584751006425928853977388179070808", + "probability": "0.0183925492363933636702412378864124", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9984152489935740711460226118209292", + "probability": "0.9816074507636066363297587621135876", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", - "stars": 2, + "numforecasts": "731", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "0", + "probability": "0.4049934414491418985976385396658718", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "1", + "probability": "0.4567329434327637514445193511115605", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2", + "probability": "0.1382736151180943499578421092225677", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "92", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1661397634672417208420309135621839", + "probability": "0.3200857701022042815449929261271158", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8338602365327582791579690864378161", + "probability": "0.6799142298977957184550070738728842", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasts": "54", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-gaetz-continue-to-hold-congressional-office-through-june-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Matt Gaetz will hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District from the date of the creation of this market through June 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" in the event that Matt Gaetz continues to hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. In the event that Matt Gaetz resigns, is removed from office, or is no longer in office for any reason prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"No\" immediately. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.house.gov/representatives. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7461002333060828063125709223827312", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2538997666939171936874290776172688", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "47", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57950,37 +57858,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8625280409263922776450772413925053", + "probability": "0.8512879891880845638587947660033713", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1374719590736077223549227586074947", + "probability": "0.1487120108119154361412052339966287", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3074187289292383718296906672878704", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6925812710707616281703093327121296", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "39", + "numforecasts": "319", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57992,60 +57879,118 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05473473251674721078257169228566964", + "probability": "0.0693152321242313510064873701903833", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9452652674832527892174283077143304", + "probability": "0.9306847678757686489935126298096167", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "102", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-laurenboebert-account-on-april-6-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 30", + "probability": "0.05977087814512342460231132918776212", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30-40", + "probability": "0.1439788098513407830412705763776042", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41-50", + "probability": "0.3000648938131921379652501864987328", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51-60", + "probability": "0.3073822916839418221307989757808803", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "61-70", + "probability": "0.1254828656686028461677836649370425", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "71-80", + "probability": "0.03350564206579270952716467730458544", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 80", + "probability": "0.02981461877200627656542058991339278", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "208", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 30, 30-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, More than 80" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be more than 140 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 20, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-140-million-confirmed-covid-19-cases-globally-by-april-20-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 20, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are not more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7107874922024220164632925171348451", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2892125077975779835367074828651549", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "54", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9843173166697513955671473084202553", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.01568268333024860443285269157974465", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "19", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.722552112790316904876933165751827", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.277447887209683095123066834248173", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "55", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9887645696991241916193178356973243", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.01123543030087580838068216430267569", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "1368", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?", @@ -58054,12 +57999,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.9126213592233009, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58074,22 +58019,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5288461538461539, + "probability": 0.5238095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4326923076923077, + "probability": 0.4380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58104,12 +58049,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58144,47 +58089,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.8691588785046729, + "probability": 0.9047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58199,12 +58144,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58219,12 +58164,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58239,12 +58184,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58259,12 +58204,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58279,12 +58224,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58299,7 +58244,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58339,88 +58284,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.49572649572649563, + "probability": 0.5175438596491228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.2222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.059829059829059825, + "probability": 0.21052631578947364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.05128205128205127, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05128205128205127, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.025641025641025637, + "name": "Maya Wiley", + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.017094017094017092, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kathryn Garcia", + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -58469,12 +58414,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58489,12 +58434,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58509,12 +58454,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6078431372549019, + "probability": 0.6138613861386139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39215686274509803, + "probability": 0.38613861386138615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58529,12 +58474,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6237623762376238, + "probability": 0.6138613861386139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.37623762376237624, + "probability": 0.38613861386138615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58549,12 +58494,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58569,12 +58514,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58589,12 +58534,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58629,7 +58574,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8910891089108911, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58639,7 +58584,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58659,12 +58604,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58739,12 +58684,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58758,89 +58703,89 @@ "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3565217391304347, + "name": "Armin Laschet", + "probability": 0.3534482758620689, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.34782608695652173, + "name": "Markus Söder", + "probability": 0.3448275862068965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.08695652173913043, + "probability": 0.09482758620689655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.06896551724137931, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.03478260869565217, + "probability": 0.034482758620689655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.026086956521739126, + "probability": 0.017241379310344827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Armin Laschet, Markus Söder, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -58849,37 +58794,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.48598130841121495, + "probability": 0.4857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.25233644859813087, + "probability": 0.22857142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.1714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58914,88 +58859,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.22321428571428564, + "probability": 0.22123893805309727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.17857142857142852, + "probability": 0.17699115044247785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.08928571428571426, + "probability": 0.08849557522123892, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.08928571428571426, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.053571428571428555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.053571428571428555, + "probability": 0.07964601769911502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.053571428571428555, + "probability": 0.07079646017699114, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.06194690265486724, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Cruz", + "probability": 0.05309734513274335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.035714285714285705, + "probability": 0.03539823008849557, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.035714285714285705, + "probability": 0.03539823008849557, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.035714285714285705, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "probability": 0.03539823008849557, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "probability": 0.026548672566371674, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "probability": 0.026548672566371674, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.026785714285714277, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "probability": 0.026548672566371674, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.017857142857142853, + "probability": 0.026548672566371674, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.017699115044247784, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Larry Hogan", + "probability": 0.017699115044247784, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -59004,37 +58949,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.3999999999999999, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.35999999999999993, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06999999999999999, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.059999999999999984, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04999999999999999, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59049,37 +58994,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.49074074074074076, + "probability": 0.5047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.25925925925925924, + "probability": 0.26666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.07619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.05714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.05714285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59174,12 +59119,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59194,12 +59139,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59214,12 +59159,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59234,67 +59179,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.3465346534653465, + "probability": 0.324074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.2871287128712871, + "probability": 0.27777777777777773, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.19801980198019803, + "probability": 0.2222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59389,77 +59334,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5217391304347825, + "probability": 0.543103448275862, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.36521739130434777, + "probability": 0.3448275862068965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59474,58 +59419,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8899082568807338, + "probability": 0.8867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolás Maduro", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", @@ -59534,12 +59479,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59554,52 +59499,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.49019607843137253, + "probability": 0.4716981132075471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.30392156862745096, + "probability": 0.32075471698113206, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.09433962264150944, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59614,12 +59559,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59654,47 +59599,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.33944954128440363, + "probability": 0.36538461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.33944954128440363, + "probability": 0.3173076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59709,52 +59654,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.3809523809523809, + "probability": 0.31481481481481477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.18095238095238092, + "probability": 0.2592592592592592, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12380952380952379, + "probability": 0.12037037037037034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.11428571428571425, + "probability": 0.11111111111111108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59769,12 +59714,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59859,88 +59804,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.7264150943396226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.1320754716981132, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Arteaga", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Juan Arteaga, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -59949,17 +59894,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.8514851485148515, + "probability": 0.8431372549019608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, + "probability": 0.14705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60034,27 +59979,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.06, + "name": "Justin Trudeau", + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60062,19 +60002,24 @@ "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60085,7 +60030,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -60094,27 +60039,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6601941747572816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.30097087378640774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.019417475728155338, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joyce Beatty", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60129,32 +60074,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6698113207547169, + "probability": 0.6893203883495145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.14150943396226415, + "probability": 0.1262135922330097, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.10679611650485436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.058252427184466014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60169,52 +60114,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.27358490566037735, + "probability": 0.1262135922330097, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.17475728155339804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.2169811320754717, + "probability": 0.21359223300970873, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.22330097087378642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.14563106796116504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.07766990291262135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60249,7 +60194,7 @@ }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60264,12 +60209,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5742574257425742, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.42574257425742573, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60304,12 +60249,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5247524752475248, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4752475247524752, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60324,67 +60269,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.3584905660377358, + "probability": 0.4271844660194174, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.2427184466019417, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.07547169811320754, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.04854368932038834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60419,47 +60364,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.9245283018867924, + "probability": 0.9252336448598131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anna Caballero", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60474,12 +60419,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60494,12 +60439,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60514,58 +60459,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5922330097087377, + "probability": 0.5849056603773584, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.13592233009708735, + "probability": 0.18867924528301883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.058252427184466, + "probability": 0.05660377358490564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.04854368932038834, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.03883495145631067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.03883495145631067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "probability": 0.05660377358490564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.018867924528301883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "probability": 0.018867924528301883, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.009433962264150941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.009708737864077667, + "probability": 0.009433962264150941, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Mark Rutte, Emmanuel Macron" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?", @@ -60574,68 +60519,68 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.5258620689655171, + "probability": 0.5648148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.14655172413793102, + "probability": 0.1574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.1293103448275862, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.06896551724137931, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.043103448275862065, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keiko Fujimori", + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", @@ -60644,12 +60589,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7339449541284404, + "probability": 0.7431192660550459, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "probability": 0.13761467889908255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60704,12 +60649,12 @@ }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60739,7 +60684,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60747,19 +60692,19 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60770,7 +60715,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh, Dan Kritenbrink" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh, Claire McCaskill, Dan Kritenbrink" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -60779,7 +60724,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60794,7 +60739,7 @@ }, { "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60829,22 +60774,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7692307692307693, + "probability": 0.7766990291262136, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "probability": 0.08737864077669902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.07692307692307693, + "probability": 0.07766990291262135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, + "probability": 0.058252427184466014, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60859,12 +60804,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60879,12 +60824,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60898,64 +60843,64 @@ "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.38738738738738737, + "name": "Eric Schmitt", + "probability": 0.37614678899082565, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.37837837837837834, + "name": "Eric Greitens", + "probability": 0.35779816513761464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.09009009009009009, + "probability": 0.09174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.018018018018018018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Blunt", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Kehoe", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Ashcroft", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, John Brunner" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -60964,22 +60909,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pat McCrory", + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61000,7 +60945,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Pat McCrory, Lara Trump, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" }, { "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?", @@ -61009,12 +60954,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61029,12 +60974,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61094,52 +61039,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61154,12 +61099,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61174,12 +61119,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61194,12 +61139,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61212,30 +61157,30 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3142857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.30476190476190473, + "probability": 0.30476190476190484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.26666666666666666, + "probability": 0.2952380952380953, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dem. House & Senate", + "probability": 0.28571428571428575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.1142857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Dem. House & Senate, Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, D House, R Senate" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -61244,12 +61189,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61259,22 +61204,22 @@ }, { "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jumaane Williams", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61334,7 +61279,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61354,7 +61299,7 @@ }, { "name": "Heath Shuler", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61369,17 +61314,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8446601941747572, + "probability": 0.8529411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61394,12 +61339,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.7037037037037037, + "probability": 0.7129629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.24074074074074073, + "probability": 0.23148148148148145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61444,7 +61389,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61454,12 +61399,12 @@ }, { "name": "Sarah Godlewski", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Nelson", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61474,12 +61419,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61539,12 +61484,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bill Peduto", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Gainey", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61619,52 +61564,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.09009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.6M to 1.625M", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.625M to 1.65M", - "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "probability": 0.05405405405405405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.65M to 1.675M", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.675M to 1.7M", - "probability": 0.16513761467889906, + "probability": 0.19819819819819817, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.7M to 1.725M", - "probability": 0.2385321100917431, + "probability": 0.25225225225225223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.725M to 1.75M", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "probability": 0.13513513513513511, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.75M to 1.775M", - "probability": 0.10091743119266054, + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.775M to 1.8M", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.018018018018018018, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61679,12 +61624,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61699,7 +61644,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61707,25 +61652,25 @@ "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Matthew Whitaker", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ashley Hinson", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew Whitaker", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson, Matthew Whitaker" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson" }, { "title": "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?", @@ -61734,37 +61679,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.25925925925925924, + "probability": 0.20952380952380953, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.6574074074074073, + "probability": 0.7047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61779,12 +61724,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Gallagher", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61814,52 +61759,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.4495412844036696, + "probability": 0.48695652173913034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "probability": 0.052173913043478244, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "probability": 0.03478260869565216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "probability": 0.04347826086956521, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "probability": 0.052173913043478244, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.06422018348623852, + "probability": 0.06956521739130432, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.06422018348623852, + "probability": 0.06086956521739129, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.07339449541284401, + "probability": 0.06956521739130432, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.06422018348623852, + "probability": 0.06086956521739129, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.10091743119266053, + "probability": 0.06956521739130432, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61874,48 +61819,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Antoinette Lopez", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Georgene Louis", - "probability": 0.35454545454545455, + "probability": 0.7757009345794391, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Melanie Stansbury", - "probability": 0.09090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Victor Reyes", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Randi McGinn", - "probability": 0.045454545454545456, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Georgene Louis", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patricia Caballero", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Selinda Guerrero", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Victor Reyes", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Fernández", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Antoinette Lopez, Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Antoinette Lopez, Melanie Stansbury, Randi McGinn, Georgene Louis, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Victor Reyes, Francisco Fernández" }, { "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", @@ -61924,12 +61869,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61944,17 +61889,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Collins", + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61965,7 +61910,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Doug Collins, Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker" }, { "title": "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?", @@ -61974,52 +61919,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.08571428571428573, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.08571428571428573, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.12037037037037036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.10476190476190478, + "probability": 0.12037037037037036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.1142857142857143, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.1142857142857143, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.06666666666666668, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.14285714285714288, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62034,12 +61979,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62054,52 +61999,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 52", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0.22641509433962262, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.2641509433962264, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62114,52 +62059,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.23809523809523808, + "probability": 0.22115384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.37142857142857144, + "probability": 0.3173076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.20952380952380953, + "probability": 0.21153846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62174,52 +62119,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.6534653465346535, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62234,12 +62179,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62247,6 +62192,31 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jody Hice", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brad Raffensperger", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Belle Isle", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle" + }, { "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ", "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c", @@ -62876,27 +62846,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2020", - "probability": 0.04483098717833767, + "probability": 0.04493978069387021, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.06401864969066619, + "probability": 0.06417400683084666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.06895005828028333, + "probability": 0.0691173827071724, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.19080068143100512, + "probability": 0.17975912277548084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.6313996234197077, + "probability": 0.6420097069926299, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63110,22 +63080,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2022 or earlier", - "probability": 0.3964413291096583, + "probability": 0.41877068864801714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.2011862236301139, + "probability": 0.1937431037839943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.2011862236301139, + "probability": 0.1937431037839943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.2011862236301139, + "probability": 0.1937431037839943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63140,22 +63110,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7202247191011235, + "probability": 0.7264988558352402, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.2340823970037453, + "probability": 0.22883295194508005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.03230337078651685, + "probability": 0.03157894736842105, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013389513108614231, + "probability": 0.013089244851258579, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63292,193 +63262,189 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": 0.23187626092804303, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.0996637525218561, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.10342972427706794, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.03739071956960323, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": 0.06899798251513115, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.0672494956287828, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": 0.14942837928715536, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.05850706119704102, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": 0.0707464694014795, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": 0.03739071956960323, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": 0.030531271015467387, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Tarry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dawn Butler", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": 0.04478816408876934, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Miliband", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlotte Nichols", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Osborne", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Greenwood", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wes Streeting", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null }, { "name": "Jim McMahon", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null }, { "name": "Alison McGovern", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null }, { "name": "Bridget Phillipson", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null } ], "description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.", @@ -63557,61 +63523,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9522559806197634, + "probability": 0.9507205482213036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.014434238417280703, + "probability": 0.01682958782626221, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.03149288381952153, + "probability": 0.029628136652222095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.002015519500151163, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63726,22 +63692,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5163281049112882, + "probability": 0.5024773620365625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3571612239650296, + "probability": 0.37143345293012126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08571183680466272, + "probability": 0.08542627712284298, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.040798834319019456, + "probability": 0.04066290791047326, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64011,12 +63977,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0832417307884481, + "probability": 0.06568897036358082, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9167582692115519, + "probability": 0.9343110296364192, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64186,12 +64152,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4813294624086495, + "probability": 0.4825855665964067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5186705375913505, + "probability": 0.5174144334035933, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64296,32 +64262,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.36833662388943733, + "probability": 0.3579995202686496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.3629072063178677, + "probability": 0.3807867594147278, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.05145607107601184, + "probability": 0.050011993283761096, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.0881046396841066, + "probability": 0.08563204605420964, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.04565646594274432, + "probability": 0.04437514991604702, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06169792694965449, + "probability": 0.05996641880546894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -64341,7 +64307,7 @@ }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.020607107601184598, + "probability": 0.020028783881026625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -64381,7 +64347,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Bloomberg", - "probability": 0.0012339585389930898, + "probability": 0.0011993283761093788, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65086,17 +65052,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GERB", - "probability": 0.6229853405685591, + "probability": 0.7299990509632722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "BSP", - "probability": 0.34907264922653275, + "probability": 0.2372591819303407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "ITN", - "probability": 0.027942010204908073, + "probability": 0.032741767106387015, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65176,12 +65142,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9107025607353907, + "probability": 0.9114912606917069, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08929743926460933, + "probability": 0.08850873930829305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65356,12 +65322,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4613851519681116, + "probability": 0.4731455307534847, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5386148480318884, + "probability": 0.5268544692465152, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65509,61 +65475,6 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "2021 Israeli election: Likud seats", - "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats", - "platform": "Smarkets", - "options": [ - { - "name": "26 or fewer", - "probability": 0.04994645117320612, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "27–28", - "probability": 0.12170187907701295, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "29–30", - "probability": 0.3091227728556129, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "31–32", - "probability": 0.32450589037094735, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "33 or more", - "probability": 0.19472300652322072, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?", - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "26 or fewer, 27–28, 29–30, 31–32, 33 or more" - }, - { - "title": "2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats", - "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats", - "platform": "Smarkets", - "options": [ - { - "name": "8 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5199615619813052, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.4800384380186949, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?", - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "8 or fewer, 9 or more" - }, { "title": "Next G20 leader to leave", "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave", @@ -65676,12 +65587,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.47011367803447013, + "probability": 0.52042498626122, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5298863219655299, + "probability": 0.47957501373878, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65736,12 +65647,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6490849447513812, + "probability": 0.6122465597264066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.35091505524861877, + "probability": 0.3877534402735933, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65756,12 +65667,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.5926263916773133, + "probability": 0.5792525198465792, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.40737360832268665, + "probability": 0.4207474801534208, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65881,12 +65792,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.4800384380186949, + "probability": 0.4694173927900222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.5199615619813052, + "probability": 0.5305826072099777, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66231,12 +66142,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5093688822597184, + "probability": 0.5337113493399486, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.4906311177402815, + "probability": 0.4662886506600514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66336,12 +66247,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.6243461299760618, + "probability": 0.6395882953385505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.3756538700239383, + "probability": 0.36041170466144945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -66546,12 +66457,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": null, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66841,17 +66752,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.5179040119985002, + "probability": 0.537460876369327, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.32320959880015, + "probability": 0.3372456964006259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.026059242594675666, + "probability": 0.027190923317683878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -66871,12 +66782,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.1115485564304462, + "probability": 0.085093896713615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.021278590176227973, + "probability": 0.013008607198748044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66891,22 +66802,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.4308085220780966, + "probability": 0.41130265535937716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.24175011761543114, + "probability": 0.2500347560127902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.1268230391827408, + "probability": 0.13116919227026275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.20061832112373146, + "probability": 0.20749339635756986, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -66921,12 +66832,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "No overall control", - "probability": 0.1719026362334709, + "probability": 0.16450390908358184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7138044302198264, + "probability": 0.7261223502861288, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -66936,12 +66847,12 @@ }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.05811505095595048, + "probability": 0.05561376642218103, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party", - "probability": 0.056177882590752126, + "probability": 0.053759974208108324, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -67051,12 +66962,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6267722694827418, + "probability": 0.6359214040442579, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37322773051725827, + "probability": 0.3640785959557421, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -67995,87 +67906,87 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.8776707112411921, + "probability": 0.8746575753901864, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.05369279645240234, + "probability": 0.05300955002364766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.02684639822620117, + "probability": 0.031074563806965872, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sian Berry", - "probability": 0.009037401383077622, + "probability": 0.008922399508930794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.004483394778119454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.004483394778119454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003590288248613587, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003590288248613587, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kam Balayev", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nims Obunge", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Drillminister", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Brown", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index dde0d35..54060f1 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,64 +1,4 @@ [ - { - "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07753824631498304305713109847982703", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.922461753685016956942868901520173", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "504", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4599317644432323598775687301012367", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5400682355567676401224312698987633", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8974107967751541143208149317438613", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1025892032248458856791850682561387", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "798", - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", @@ -67,142 +7,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01394232389372196757070549823602875", + "probability": "0.0399522190901281473183703149667169", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9860576761062780324292945017639713", + "probability": "0.9600477809098718526816296850332831", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "15", + "numforecasts": "27", "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1", + "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "$80M or Less", - "probability": "0.05744360602032953362501417765827628", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$81-105M", - "probability": "0.6714313199989959113997850001650252", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$106-120M", - "probability": "0.1558340346479539708610918819061469", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$121-135M", - "probability": "0.06367479538279264655713628485976061", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$136M or More", - "probability": "0.05161624394992793755697265541079074", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "203", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4061604608970735746980251586486453", + "probability": "0.07465307001144303222259539896004477", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5938395391029264253019748413513547", + "probability": "0.9253469299885569677774046010399552", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", - "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.811137805040424106412252281387405", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.188862194959575893587747718612595", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "3177", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07304455174120395584463620390808104", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.926955448258796044155363796091919", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "8243", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0002594014467534253739238797362305842", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9997405985532465746260761202637694", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "4314", + "numforecasts": "522", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -213,18 +47,178 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9514096993620200431360981712878928", + "probability": "0.937185702542547745508723154303628", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.04859030063797995686390182871210717", + "probability": "0.062814297457452254491276845696372", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4", + "numforecasts": "53", "stars": 3 }, + { + "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4654295355935182330616479112119514", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5345704644064817669383520887880486", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "110", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.898486201143934842646828594587153", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.101513798856065157353171405412847", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "807", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.66316561303638583639322299764386", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.33683438696361416360677700235614", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "16", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9235015831361897357511964892828881", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.07649841686381026424880351071711195", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3457", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007799905818548978341181015069580178", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.999220009418145102165881898493042", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "188", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.02261135370733015122541638960314871", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9773886462926698487745836103968513", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "8474", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0003722103355381477775719659336543291", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9996277896644618522224280340663457", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4416", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1099230898121289621386529149208585", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8900769101878710378613470850791415", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "94", + "stars": 4 + }, { "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", @@ -233,18 +227,38 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07590406992189588515175078805599503", + "probability": "0.0643262684347852793581318329432571", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.924095930078104114848249211944005", + "probability": "0.9356737315652147206418681670567429", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "411", + "numforecasts": "419", "stars": 3 }, + { + "title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2084574486646862799550090404443954", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7915425513353137200449909595556046", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "47", + "stars": 4 + }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", @@ -253,36 +267,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.04200290899238056378530487686460393", + "probability": "0.02570884192511618168598180798571647", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9579970910076194362146951231353961", + "probability": "0.9742911580748838183140181920142835", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.02304787940068400388231862024485495", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9769521205993159961176813797551451", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "726", + "numforecasts": "95", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -293,76 +287,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1283821729293469028524210423415517", + "probability": "0.1531273744175666186166761496243497", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8716178270706530971475789576584483", + "probability": "0.8468726255824333813833238503756503", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasts": "78", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30", + "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.001584751006425928853977388179070808", + "probability": "0.0183925492363933636702412378864124", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9984152489935740711460226118209292", + "probability": "0.9816074507636066363297587621135876", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", - "stars": 2 + "numforecasts": "731", + "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1661397634672417208420309135621839", + "name": "0", + "probability": "0.4049934414491418985976385396658718", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8338602365327582791579690864378161", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "87", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8625280409263922776450772413925053", + "name": "1", + "probability": "0.4567329434327637514445193511115605", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1374719590736077223549227586074947", + "name": "2", + "probability": "0.1382736151180943499578421092225677", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "92", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -373,16 +352,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3074187289292383718296906672878704", + "probability": "0.3200857701022042815449929261271158", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6925812710707616281703093327121296", + "probability": "0.6799142298977957184550070738728842", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "39", + "numforecasts": "54", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-gaetz-continue-to-hold-congressional-office-through-june-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Matt Gaetz will hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District from the date of the creation of this market through June 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" in the event that Matt Gaetz continues to hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. In the event that Matt Gaetz resigns, is removed from office, or is no longer in office for any reason prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"No\" immediately. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.house.gov/representatives. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7461002333060828063125709223827312", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2538997666939171936874290776172688", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "47", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8512879891880845638587947660033713", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1487120108119154361412052339966287", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "319", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -393,56 +412,112 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05473473251674721078257169228566964", + "probability": "0.0693152321242313510064873701903833", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9452652674832527892174283077143304", + "probability": "0.9306847678757686489935126298096167", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "102", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-laurenboebert-account-on-april-6-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 30", + "probability": "0.05977087814512342460231132918776212", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30-40", + "probability": "0.1439788098513407830412705763776042", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41-50", + "probability": "0.3000648938131921379652501864987328", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51-60", + "probability": "0.3073822916839418221307989757808803", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "61-70", + "probability": "0.1254828656686028461677836649370425", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "71-80", + "probability": "0.03350564206579270952716467730458544", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 80", + "probability": "0.02981461877200627656542058991339278", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "208", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will there be more than 140 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 20, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-140-million-confirmed-covid-19-cases-globally-by-april-20-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 20, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are not more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7107874922024220164632925171348451", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2892125077975779835367074828651549", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "54", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9843173166697513955671473084202553", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.01568268333024860443285269157974465", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "19", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.722552112790316904876933165751827", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.277447887209683095123066834248173", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "55", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9887645696991241916193178356973243", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.01123543030087580838068216430267569", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "1368", - "stars": 3 + "options": [] } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index d47fe1c..1032f81 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.9126213592233009, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25,22 +25,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5288461538461539, + "probability": 0.5238095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4326923076923077, + "probability": 0.4380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,47 +92,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.8691588785046729, + "probability": 0.9047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,12 +146,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -165,12 +165,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -184,12 +184,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -203,12 +203,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -222,12 +222,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -279,82 +279,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.49572649572649563, + "probability": 0.5175438596491228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.2222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.059829059829059825, + "probability": 0.21052631578947364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.05128205128205127, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05128205128205127, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.025641025641025637, + "name": "Maya Wiley", + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.017094017094017092, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kathryn Garcia", + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -406,12 +406,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -425,12 +425,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -444,12 +444,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6078431372549019, + "probability": 0.6138613861386139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39215686274509803, + "probability": 0.38613861386138615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -463,12 +463,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6237623762376238, + "probability": 0.6138613861386139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.37623762376237624, + "probability": 0.38613861386138615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -482,12 +482,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -501,12 +501,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -520,12 +520,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -558,7 +558,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8910891089108911, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -568,7 +568,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -587,12 +587,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -665,12 +665,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -683,83 +683,83 @@ "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3565217391304347, + "name": "Armin Laschet", + "probability": 0.3534482758620689, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.34782608695652173, + "name": "Markus Söder", + "probability": 0.3448275862068965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.08695652173913043, + "probability": 0.09482758620689655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.06896551724137931, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.03478260869565217, + "probability": 0.034482758620689655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.026086956521739126, + "probability": 0.017241379310344827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. 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Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1089,12 +1089,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1108,12 +1108,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1127,12 +1127,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1146,67 +1146,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.3465346534653465, + "probability": 0.324074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.2871287128712871, + "probability": 0.27777777777777773, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.19801980198019803, + "probability": 0.2222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1296,77 +1296,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5217391304347825, + "probability": 0.543103448275862, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.36521739130434777, + "probability": 0.3448275862068965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1380,52 +1380,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8899082568807338, + "probability": 0.8867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolás Maduro", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1439,12 +1439,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1458,52 +1458,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.49019607843137253, + "probability": 0.4716981132075471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.30392156862745096, + "probability": 0.32075471698113206, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.09433962264150944, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1517,12 +1517,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1555,47 +1555,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.33944954128440363, + "probability": 0.36538461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.33944954128440363, + "probability": 0.3173076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1609,52 +1609,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.3809523809523809, + "probability": 0.31481481481481477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.18095238095238092, + "probability": 0.2592592592592592, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12380952380952379, + "probability": 0.12037037037037034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.11428571428571425, + "probability": 0.11111111111111108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.038095238095238085, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1668,12 +1668,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1756,82 +1756,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.7264150943396226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.1320754716981132, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Arteaga", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1845,17 +1845,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.8514851485148515, + "probability": 0.8431372549019608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, + "probability": 0.14705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1928,27 +1928,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.06, + "name": "Justin Trudeau", + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1956,19 +1951,24 @@ "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1987,27 +1987,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6601941747572816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.30097087378640774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.019417475728155338, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joyce Beatty", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2021,32 +2021,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6698113207547169, + "probability": 0.6893203883495145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.14150943396226415, + "probability": 0.1262135922330097, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.10679611650485436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.058252427184466014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2060,52 +2060,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.27358490566037735, + "probability": 0.1262135922330097, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.17475728155339804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.2169811320754717, + "probability": 0.21359223300970873, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.22330097087378642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.14563106796116504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.07766990291262135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2139,7 +2139,7 @@ }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2153,12 +2153,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5742574257425742, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.42574257425742573, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2191,12 +2191,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5247524752475248, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4752475247524752, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2210,67 +2210,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.3584905660377358, + "probability": 0.4271844660194174, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.2427184466019417, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.07547169811320754, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.04854368932038834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2303,47 +2303,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.9245283018867924, + "probability": 0.9252336448598131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anna Caballero", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2357,12 +2357,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2376,12 +2376,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2395,52 +2395,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5922330097087377, + "probability": 0.5849056603773584, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.13592233009708735, + "probability": 0.18867924528301883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.058252427184466, + "probability": 0.05660377358490564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.04854368932038834, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.03883495145631067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.03883495145631067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "probability": 0.05660377358490564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.018867924528301883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "probability": 0.018867924528301883, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.009433962264150941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.009708737864077667, + "probability": 0.009433962264150941, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2454,62 +2454,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.5258620689655171, + "probability": 0.5648148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.14655172413793102, + "probability": 0.1574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.1293103448275862, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.06896551724137931, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.043103448275862065, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keiko Fujimori", + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2523,12 +2523,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7339449541284404, + "probability": 0.7431192660550459, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "probability": 0.13761467889908255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2582,12 +2582,12 @@ }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2616,7 +2616,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2624,19 +2624,19 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2655,7 +2655,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2670,7 +2670,7 @@ }, { "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2704,22 +2704,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7692307692307693, + "probability": 0.7766990291262136, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "probability": 0.08737864077669902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.07692307692307693, + "probability": 0.07766990291262135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, + "probability": 0.058252427184466014, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2733,12 +2733,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2752,12 +2752,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2770,58 +2770,58 @@ "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.38738738738738737, + "name": "Eric Schmitt", + "probability": 0.37614678899082565, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.37837837837837834, + "name": "Eric Greitens", + "probability": 0.35779816513761464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.09009009009009009, + "probability": 0.09174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.018018018018018018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Blunt", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Kehoe", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Ashcroft", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2835,22 +2835,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pat McCrory", + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2879,12 +2879,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2898,12 +2898,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2961,52 +2961,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3020,12 +3020,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3039,12 +3039,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3058,12 +3058,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3075,24 +3075,24 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3142857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.30476190476190473, + "probability": 0.30476190476190484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.26666666666666666, + "probability": 0.2952380952380953, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dem. House & Senate", + "probability": 0.28571428571428575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.1142857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3106,12 +3106,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3121,22 +3121,22 @@ }, { "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jumaane Williams", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3194,7 +3194,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3214,7 +3214,7 @@ }, { "name": "Heath Shuler", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3228,17 +3228,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8446601941747572, + "probability": 0.8529411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3252,12 +3252,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.7037037037037037, + "probability": 0.7129629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.24074074074074073, + "probability": 0.23148148148148145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3301,7 +3301,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3311,12 +3311,12 @@ }, { "name": "Sarah Godlewski", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Nelson", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3330,12 +3330,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3393,12 +3393,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bill Peduto", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Gainey", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3471,52 +3471,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.09009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.6M to 1.625M", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.625M to 1.65M", - "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "probability": 0.05405405405405405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.65M to 1.675M", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.675M to 1.7M", - "probability": 0.16513761467889906, + "probability": 0.19819819819819817, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.7M to 1.725M", - "probability": 0.2385321100917431, + "probability": 0.25225225225225223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.725M to 1.75M", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "probability": 0.13513513513513511, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.75M to 1.775M", - "probability": 0.10091743119266054, + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.775M to 1.8M", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.018018018018018018, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3530,12 +3530,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3549,7 +3549,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3557,19 +3557,19 @@ "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Matthew Whitaker", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ashley Hinson", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew Whitaker", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3583,37 +3583,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.25925925925925924, + "probability": 0.20952380952380953, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.6574074074074073, + "probability": 0.7047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3627,12 +3627,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Gallagher", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3661,52 +3661,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.4495412844036696, + "probability": 0.48695652173913034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "probability": 0.052173913043478244, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "probability": 0.03478260869565216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "probability": 0.04347826086956521, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "probability": 0.052173913043478244, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.06422018348623852, + "probability": 0.06956521739130432, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.06422018348623852, + "probability": 0.06086956521739129, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.07339449541284401, + "probability": 0.06956521739130432, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.06422018348623852, + "probability": 0.06086956521739129, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.10091743119266053, + "probability": 0.06956521739130432, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3720,42 +3720,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Antoinette Lopez", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Georgene Louis", - "probability": 0.35454545454545455, + "probability": 0.7757009345794391, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Melanie Stansbury", - "probability": 0.09090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Victor Reyes", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Randi McGinn", - "probability": 0.045454545454545456, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Georgene Louis", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patricia Caballero", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Selinda Guerrero", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Victor Reyes", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Fernández", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3769,12 +3769,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3788,17 +3788,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Collins", + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3817,52 +3817,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.08571428571428573, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.08571428571428573, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.12037037037037036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.10476190476190478, + "probability": 0.12037037037037036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.1142857142857143, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.1142857142857143, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.06666666666666668, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.14285714285714288, + "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3876,12 +3876,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3895,52 +3895,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 52", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0.22641509433962262, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.2641509433962264, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3954,52 +3954,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.23809523809523808, + "probability": 0.22115384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.37142857142857144, + "probability": 0.3173076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.20952380952380953, + "probability": 0.21153846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4013,52 +4013,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.6534653465346535, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4072,16 +4072,40 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jody Hice", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brad Raffensperger", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Belle Isle", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index 97486fc..2ed0db7 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -580,27 +580,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2020", - "probability": 0.04483098717833767, + "probability": 0.04493978069387021, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.06401864969066619, + "probability": 0.06417400683084666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.06895005828028333, + "probability": 0.0691173827071724, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.19080068143100512, + "probability": 0.17975912277548084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.6313996234197077, + "probability": 0.6420097069926299, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -809,22 +809,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2022 or earlier", - "probability": 0.3964413291096583, + "probability": 0.41877068864801714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.2011862236301139, + "probability": 0.1937431037839943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.2011862236301139, + "probability": 0.1937431037839943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.2011862236301139, + "probability": 0.1937431037839943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -838,22 +838,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7202247191011235, + "probability": 0.7264988558352402, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.2340823970037453, + "probability": 0.22883295194508005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.03230337078651685, + "probability": 0.03157894736842105, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013389513108614231, + "probability": 0.013089244851258579, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -987,193 +987,189 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": 0.23187626092804303, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.0996637525218561, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.10342972427706794, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.03739071956960323, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": 0.06899798251513115, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.0672494956287828, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": 0.14942837928715536, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.05850706119704102, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": 0.0707464694014795, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": 0.03739071956960323, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": 0.030531271015467387, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Tarry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dawn Butler", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": 0.04478816408876934, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Miliband", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlotte Nichols", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Osborne", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Greenwood", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": 0, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wes Streeting", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null }, { "name": "Jim McMahon", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null }, { "name": "Alison McGovern", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null }, { "name": "Bridget Phillipson", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "probability": null } ], "description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.", @@ -1248,61 +1244,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9522559806197634, + "probability": 0.9507205482213036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.014434238417280703, + "probability": 0.01682958782626221, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.03149288381952153, + "probability": 0.029628136652222095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.002015519500151163, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00010093873019077415, + "probability": 0.00010077597500755815, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1412,22 +1408,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5163281049112882, + "probability": 0.5024773620365625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3571612239650296, + "probability": 0.37143345293012126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08571183680466272, + "probability": 0.08542627712284298, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.040798834319019456, + "probability": 0.04066290791047326, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1690,12 +1686,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0832417307884481, + "probability": 0.06568897036358082, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9167582692115519, + "probability": 0.9343110296364192, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1860,12 +1856,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4813294624086495, + "probability": 0.4825855665964067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5186705375913505, + "probability": 0.5174144334035933, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1965,32 +1961,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.36833662388943733, + "probability": 0.3579995202686496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.3629072063178677, + "probability": 0.3807867594147278, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.05145607107601184, + "probability": 0.050011993283761096, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.0881046396841066, + "probability": 0.08563204605420964, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.04565646594274432, + "probability": 0.04437514991604702, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06169792694965449, + "probability": 0.05996641880546894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2010,7 +2006,7 @@ }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.020607107601184598, + "probability": 0.020028783881026625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2050,7 +2046,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Bloomberg", - "probability": 0.0012339585389930898, + "probability": 0.0011993283761093788, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2735,17 +2731,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GERB", - "probability": 0.6229853405685591, + "probability": 0.7299990509632722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "BSP", - "probability": 0.34907264922653275, + "probability": 0.2372591819303407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "ITN", - "probability": 0.027942010204908073, + "probability": 0.032741767106387015, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2821,12 +2817,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9107025607353907, + "probability": 0.9114912606917069, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08929743926460933, + "probability": 0.08850873930829305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2994,12 +2990,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4613851519681116, + "probability": 0.4731455307534847, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5386148480318884, + "probability": 0.5268544692465152, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3140,59 +3136,6 @@ "description": "Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?", "stars": 2 }, - { - "title": "2021 Israeli election: Likud seats", - "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats", - "platform": "Smarkets", - "options": [ - { - "name": "26 or fewer", - "probability": 0.04994645117320612, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "27–28", - "probability": 0.12170187907701295, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "29–30", - "probability": 0.3091227728556129, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "31–32", - "probability": 0.32450589037094735, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "33 or more", - "probability": 0.19472300652322072, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?", - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats", - "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats", - "platform": "Smarkets", - "options": [ - { - "name": "8 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5199615619813052, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.4800384380186949, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?", - "stars": 2 - }, { "title": "Next G20 leader to leave", "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave", @@ -3302,12 +3245,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.47011367803447013, + "probability": 0.52042498626122, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5298863219655299, + "probability": 0.47957501373878, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3359,12 +3302,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6490849447513812, + "probability": 0.6122465597264066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.35091505524861877, + "probability": 0.3877534402735933, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3378,12 +3321,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.5926263916773133, + "probability": 0.5792525198465792, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.40737360832268665, + "probability": 0.4207474801534208, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3498,12 +3441,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.4800384380186949, + "probability": 0.4694173927900222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.5199615619813052, + "probability": 0.5305826072099777, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3831,12 +3774,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5093688822597184, + "probability": 0.5337113493399486, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.4906311177402815, + "probability": 0.4662886506600514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3931,12 +3874,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.6243461299760618, + "probability": 0.6395882953385505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.3756538700239383, + "probability": 0.36041170466144945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4131,12 +4074,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": null, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4414,17 +4357,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.5179040119985002, + "probability": 0.537460876369327, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.32320959880015, + "probability": 0.3372456964006259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.026059242594675666, + "probability": 0.027190923317683878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4444,12 +4387,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.1115485564304462, + "probability": 0.085093896713615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.021278590176227973, + "probability": 0.013008607198748044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4463,22 +4406,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.4308085220780966, + "probability": 0.41130265535937716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.24175011761543114, + "probability": 0.2500347560127902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.1268230391827408, + "probability": 0.13116919227026275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.20061832112373146, + "probability": 0.20749339635756986, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4492,12 +4435,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "No overall control", - "probability": 0.1719026362334709, + "probability": 0.16450390908358184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7138044302198264, + "probability": 0.7261223502861288, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4507,12 +4450,12 @@ }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.05811505095595048, + "probability": 0.05561376642218103, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party", - "probability": 0.056177882590752126, + "probability": 0.053759974208108324, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4618,12 +4561,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6267722694827418, + "probability": 0.6359214040442579, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37322773051725827, + "probability": 0.3640785959557421, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.json b/data/williamhill-questions.json index 2e17fd0..44e0caa 100644 --- a/data/williamhill-questions.json +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.json @@ -914,87 +914,87 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.8776707112411921, + "probability": 0.8746575753901864, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.05369279645240234, + "probability": 0.05300955002364766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.02684639822620117, + "probability": 0.031074563806965872, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sian Berry", - "probability": 0.009037401383077622, + "probability": 0.008922399508930794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.004483394778119454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.004483394778119454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003590288248613587, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003590288248613587, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kam Balayev", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nims Obunge", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Drillminister", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Brown", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0017987272463113977, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ],