feat: metaculus validates api, supports --id cli arg
This commit is contained in:
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
parent
159f9c2b45
commit
4d736f711d
76
package-lock.json
generated
76
package-lock.json
generated
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@ -28,6 +28,7 @@
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"@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
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"@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
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"airtable": "^0.11.1",
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"ajv": "^8.11.0",
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"algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
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"autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
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"axios": "^0.25.0",
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@ -3498,6 +3499,21 @@
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"node": ">=8.0.0"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/ajv": {
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"version": "8.11.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/ajv/-/ajv-8.11.0.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-wGgprdCvMalC0BztXvitD2hC04YffAvtsUn93JbGXYLAtCUO4xd17mCCZQxUOItiBwZvJScWo8NIvQMQ71rdpg==",
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"dependencies": {
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"fast-deep-equal": "^3.1.1",
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"json-schema-traverse": "^1.0.0",
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"require-from-string": "^2.0.2",
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"uri-js": "^4.2.2"
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},
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"funding": {
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"type": "github",
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"url": "https://github.com/sponsors/epoberezkin"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/algoliasearch": {
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"version": "4.10.3",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/algoliasearch/-/algoliasearch-4.10.3.tgz",
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@ -5771,6 +5787,11 @@
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"url": "https://github.com/sponsors/jaydenseric"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/fast-deep-equal": {
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"version": "3.1.3",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/fast-deep-equal/-/fast-deep-equal-3.1.3.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-f3qQ9oQy9j2AhBe/H9VC91wLmKBCCU/gDOnKNAYG5hswO7BLKj09Hc5HYNz9cGI++xlpDCIgDaitVs03ATR84Q=="
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},
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"node_modules/fast-equals": {
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"version": "2.0.4",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/fast-equals/-/fast-equals-2.0.4.tgz",
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@ -7454,6 +7475,11 @@
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"integrity": "sha512-xyFwyhro/JEof6Ghe2iz2NcXoj2sloNsWr/XsERDK/oiPCfaNhl5ONfp+jQdAZRQQ0IJWNzH9zIZF7li91kh2w==",
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"license": "MIT"
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},
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"node_modules/json-schema-traverse": {
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"version": "1.0.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/json-schema-traverse/-/json-schema-traverse-1.0.0.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-NM8/P9n3XjXhIZn1lLhkFaACTOURQXjWhV4BA/RnOv8xvgqtqpAX9IO4mRQxSx1Rlo4tqzeqb0sOlruaOy3dug=="
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},
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"node_modules/json-stable-stringify": {
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"version": "1.0.1",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/json-stable-stringify/-/json-stable-stringify-1.0.1.tgz",
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@ -37587,6 +37613,14 @@
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"node": ">=0.10.0"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/require-from-string": {
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"version": "2.0.2",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/require-from-string/-/require-from-string-2.0.2.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-Xf0nWe6RseziFMu+Ap9biiUbmplq6S9/p+7w7YXP/JBHhrUDDUhwa+vANyubuqfZWTveU//DYVGsDG7RKL/vEw==",
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"engines": {
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"node": ">=0.10.0"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/require-main-filename": {
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"version": "2.0.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/require-main-filename/-/require-main-filename-2.0.0.tgz",
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@ -39027,6 +39061,14 @@
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"tslib": "^2.0.3"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/uri-js": {
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"version": "4.4.1",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/uri-js/-/uri-js-4.4.1.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-7rKUyy33Q1yc98pQ1DAmLtwX109F7TIfWlW1Ydo8Wl1ii1SeHieeh0HHfPeL2fMXK6z0s8ecKs9frCuLJvndBg==",
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"dependencies": {
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"punycode": "^2.1.0"
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}
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},
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"node_modules/url-parse-lax": {
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"version": "3.0.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/url-parse-lax/-/url-parse-lax-3.0.0.tgz",
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@ -42453,6 +42495,17 @@
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"node-fetch": "^2.6.7"
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}
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},
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"ajv": {
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"version": "8.11.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/ajv/-/ajv-8.11.0.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-wGgprdCvMalC0BztXvitD2hC04YffAvtsUn93JbGXYLAtCUO4xd17mCCZQxUOItiBwZvJScWo8NIvQMQ71rdpg==",
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"requires": {
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"fast-deep-equal": "^3.1.1",
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"json-schema-traverse": "^1.0.0",
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"require-from-string": "^2.0.2",
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"uri-js": "^4.2.2"
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}
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},
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"algoliasearch": {
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"version": "4.10.3",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/algoliasearch/-/algoliasearch-4.10.3.tgz",
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@ -44096,6 +44149,11 @@
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/extract-files/-/extract-files-9.0.0.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-CvdFfHkC95B4bBBk36hcEmvdR2awOdhhVUYH6S/zrVj3477zven/fJMYg7121h4T1xHZC+tetUpubpAhxwI7hQ=="
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},
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"fast-deep-equal": {
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"version": "3.1.3",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/fast-deep-equal/-/fast-deep-equal-3.1.3.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-f3qQ9oQy9j2AhBe/H9VC91wLmKBCCU/gDOnKNAYG5hswO7BLKj09Hc5HYNz9cGI++xlpDCIgDaitVs03ATR84Q=="
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},
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"fast-equals": {
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"version": "2.0.4",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/fast-equals/-/fast-equals-2.0.4.tgz",
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@ -45304,6 +45362,11 @@
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/json-parse-even-better-errors/-/json-parse-even-better-errors-2.3.1.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-xyFwyhro/JEof6Ghe2iz2NcXoj2sloNsWr/XsERDK/oiPCfaNhl5ONfp+jQdAZRQQ0IJWNzH9zIZF7li91kh2w=="
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},
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"json-schema-traverse": {
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"version": "1.0.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/json-schema-traverse/-/json-schema-traverse-1.0.0.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-NM8/P9n3XjXhIZn1lLhkFaACTOURQXjWhV4BA/RnOv8xvgqtqpAX9IO4mRQxSx1Rlo4tqzeqb0sOlruaOy3dug=="
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},
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"json-stable-stringify": {
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"version": "1.0.1",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/json-stable-stringify/-/json-stable-stringify-1.0.1.tgz",
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@ -67926,6 +67989,11 @@
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"integrity": "sha1-jGStX9MNqxyXbiNE/+f3kqam30I=",
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"dev": true
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},
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"require-from-string": {
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"version": "2.0.2",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/require-from-string/-/require-from-string-2.0.2.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-Xf0nWe6RseziFMu+Ap9biiUbmplq6S9/p+7w7YXP/JBHhrUDDUhwa+vANyubuqfZWTveU//DYVGsDG7RKL/vEw=="
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},
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"require-main-filename": {
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"version": "2.0.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/require-main-filename/-/require-main-filename-2.0.0.tgz",
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@ -68920,6 +68988,14 @@
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"tslib": "^2.0.3"
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}
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},
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"uri-js": {
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"version": "4.4.1",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/uri-js/-/uri-js-4.4.1.tgz",
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"integrity": "sha512-7rKUyy33Q1yc98pQ1DAmLtwX109F7TIfWlW1Ydo8Wl1ii1SeHieeh0HHfPeL2fMXK6z0s8ecKs9frCuLJvndBg==",
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"requires": {
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"punycode": "^2.1.0"
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}
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},
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"url-parse-lax": {
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"version": "3.0.0",
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"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/url-parse-lax/-/url-parse-lax-3.0.0.tgz",
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@ -46,6 +46,7 @@
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"@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
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"@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
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"airtable": "^0.11.1",
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"ajv": "^8.11.0",
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"algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
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"autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
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"axios": "^0.25.0",
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@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
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/* Imports */
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import Ajv, { JTDDataType } from "ajv/dist/jtd";
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import axios from "axios";
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import { average } from "../../utils";
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@ -8,24 +9,87 @@ import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
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/* Definitions */
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const platformName = "metaculus";
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let now = new Date().toISOString();
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let DEBUG_MODE = "off";
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let SLEEP_TIME = 5000;
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const now = new Date().toISOString();
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const SLEEP_TIME = 5000;
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/* Support functions */
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async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next: string) {
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// Numbers about a given address: how many, how much, at what price, etc.
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let response;
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let data;
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const apiQuestionSchema = {
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properties: {
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page_url: {
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type: "string",
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},
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title: {
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type: "string",
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},
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publish_time: {
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type: "string",
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},
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close_time: {
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type: "string",
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},
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resolve_time: {
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type: "string",
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},
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number_of_predictions: {
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type: "uint32",
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},
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possibilities: {
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properties: {
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type: {
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type: "string", // TODO - enum?
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},
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},
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additionalProperties: true,
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},
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community_prediction: {
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properties: {
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full: {
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properties: {
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q1: {
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type: "float64",
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},
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q2: {
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type: "float64",
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},
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q3: {
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type: "float64",
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},
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},
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additionalProperties: true,
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},
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},
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additionalProperties: true,
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},
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},
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additionalProperties: true,
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} as const;
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const apiMultipleQuestionsSchema = {
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properties: {
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results: {
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elements: apiQuestionSchema,
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},
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next: {
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type: "string",
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nullable: true,
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},
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},
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additionalProperties: true,
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} as const;
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type ApiQuestion = JTDDataType<typeof apiQuestionSchema>;
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type ApiMultipleQuestions = JTDDataType<typeof apiMultipleQuestionsSchema>;
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const validateApiQuestion = new Ajv().compile<ApiQuestion>(apiQuestionSchema);
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const validateApiMultipleQuestions = new Ajv().compile<
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JTDDataType<typeof apiMultipleQuestionsSchema>
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>(apiMultipleQuestionsSchema);
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async function fetchWithRetries<T = unknown>(url: string): Promise<T> {
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try {
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response = await axios({
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url: next,
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method: "GET",
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headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
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});
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data = response.data;
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const response = await axios.get<T>(url);
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return response.data;
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} catch (error) {
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console.log(`Error in async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next)`);
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console.log(`Error while fetching ${url}`);
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console.log(error);
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if (axios.isAxiosError(error)) {
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if (error.response?.headers["retry-after"]) {
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@ -36,170 +100,183 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next: string) {
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await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
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}
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}
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} finally {
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try {
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response = await axios({
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url: next,
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method: "GET",
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headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
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});
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data = response.data;
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} catch (error) {
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console.log(error);
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return { results: [] };
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}
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}
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// console.log(response)
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return data;
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const response = await axios.get<T>(url);
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return response.data;
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}
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async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug: string) {
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try {
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let response = await axios({
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method: "get",
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url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug,
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}).then((response) => response.data);
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return response;
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} catch (error) {
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console.log(`Error in: fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription`);
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console.log(
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`We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page. Trying again`
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);
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if (
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axios.isAxiosError(error) &&
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typeof error.response != "undefined" &&
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typeof error.response.headers != "undefined" &&
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typeof error.response.headers["retry-after"] != "undefined"
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) {
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const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
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console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
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await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + SLEEP_TIME);
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} else {
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await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
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}
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try {
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let response = await axios({
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method: "get",
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url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug,
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}).then((response) => response.data);
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// console.log(response)
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return response;
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} catch (error) {
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console.log(
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`We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page.`
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);
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console.log("Error", error);
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throw "Giving up";
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}
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/* Support functions */
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async function fetchApiQuestions(next: string): Promise<ApiMultipleQuestions> {
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const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(next);
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if (validateApiMultipleQuestions(data)) {
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return data;
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}
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throw new Error("Response validation failed");
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}
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export const metaculus: Platform = {
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async function fetchSingleApiQuestion(url: string): Promise<ApiQuestion> {
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const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url);
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if (validateApiQuestion(data)) {
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return data;
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}
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throw new Error("Response validation failed");
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}
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async function fetchQuestionHtml(slug: string) {
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return await fetchWithRetries<string>("https://www.metaculus.com" + slug);
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}
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async function fetchQuestionPage(slug: string) {
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const questionPage = await fetchQuestionHtml(slug);
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const isPublicFigurePrediction = questionPage.includes(
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"A public prediction by"
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);
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let description: string = "";
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if (!isPublicFigurePrediction) {
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const descriptionraw = questionPage.split(
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`<div class="content" ng-bind-html-compile="qctrl.question.description_html">`
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)[1];
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const descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("</div>")[0];
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description = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1);
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}
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return {
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isPublicFigurePrediction,
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description,
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};
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}
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async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestion(
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apiQuestion: ApiQuestion
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): Promise<FetchedQuestion | null> {
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if (apiQuestion.publish_time > now || now > apiQuestion.resolve_time) {
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return null;
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}
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await sleep(SLEEP_TIME / 2);
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const questionPage = await fetchQuestionPage(apiQuestion.page_url);
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if (questionPage.isPublicFigurePrediction) {
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console.log("- [Skipping public prediction]");
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return null;
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}
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const isBinary = apiQuestion.possibilities.type === "binary";
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let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
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if (isBinary) {
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const probability = Number(apiQuestion.community_prediction.full.q2);
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options = [
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{
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name: "Yes",
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probability: probability,
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type: "PROBABILITY",
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},
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{
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name: "No",
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probability: 1 - probability,
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type: "PROBABILITY",
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},
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];
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}
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const question: FetchedQuestion = {
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id: `${platformName}-${apiQuestion.id}`,
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title: apiQuestion.title,
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url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url,
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description: questionPage.description,
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options,
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qualityindicators: {
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numforecasts: apiQuestion.number_of_predictions,
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},
|
||||
extra: {
|
||||
resolution_data: {
|
||||
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
|
||||
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
|
||||
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
|
||||
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time,
|
||||
},
|
||||
},
|
||||
//"status": result.status,
|
||||
//"publish_time": result.publish_time,
|
||||
//"close_time": result.close_time,
|
||||
//"type": result.possibilities.type, // We want binary ones here.
|
||||
//"last_activity_time": result.last_activity_time,
|
||||
};
|
||||
if (apiQuestion.number_of_predictions < 10) {
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return question;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
|
||||
name: platformName,
|
||||
label: "Metaculus",
|
||||
color: "#006669",
|
||||
version: "v1",
|
||||
async fetcher() {
|
||||
// let metaculusQuestionsInit = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(1)
|
||||
// let numQueries = Math.round(Number(metaculusQuestionsInit.count) / 20)
|
||||
// console.log(`Downloading... This might take a while. Total number of queries: ${numQueries}`)
|
||||
// for (let i = 4; i <= numQueries; i++) { // change numQueries to 10 if one want to just test }
|
||||
let all_questions = [];
|
||||
let next = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/";
|
||||
version: "v2",
|
||||
fetcherArgs: ["id", "debug"],
|
||||
async fetcher(opts) {
|
||||
let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
|
||||
|
||||
if (opts.args?.id) {
|
||||
const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(
|
||||
`https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/${opts.args?.id}`
|
||||
);
|
||||
const question = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion);
|
||||
console.log(question);
|
||||
return {
|
||||
questions: question ? [question] : [],
|
||||
partial: true,
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/";
|
||||
let i = 1;
|
||||
while (next) {
|
||||
if (i % 20 == 0) {
|
||||
if (i % 20 === 0) {
|
||||
console.log("Sleeping for 500ms");
|
||||
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(`\nQuery #${i}`);
|
||||
let metaculusQuestions = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(next);
|
||||
let results = metaculusQuestions.results;
|
||||
let j = false;
|
||||
for (let result of results) {
|
||||
if (result.publish_time < now && now < result.resolve_time) {
|
||||
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME / 2);
|
||||
let questionPage = await fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(
|
||||
result.page_url
|
||||
);
|
||||
if (!questionPage.includes("A public prediction by")) {
|
||||
// console.log(questionPage)
|
||||
let descriptionraw = questionPage.split(
|
||||
`<div class="content" ng-bind-html-compile="qctrl.question.description_html">`
|
||||
)[1]; //.split(`<div class="question__content">`)[1]
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("</div>")[0];
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed2 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1);
|
||||
let description = descriptionprocessed2;
|
||||
|
||||
let isbinary = result.possibilities.type == "binary";
|
||||
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
|
||||
if (isbinary) {
|
||||
let probability = Number(result.community_prediction.full.q2);
|
||||
options = [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: 1 - probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
];
|
||||
}
|
||||
let id = `${platformName}-${result.id}`;
|
||||
let interestingInfo: FetchedQuestion = {
|
||||
id,
|
||||
title: result.title,
|
||||
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
|
||||
description,
|
||||
options,
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
numforecasts: Number(result.number_of_predictions),
|
||||
},
|
||||
extra: {
|
||||
resolution_data: {
|
||||
publish_time: result.publish_time,
|
||||
resolution: result.resolution,
|
||||
close_time: result.close_time,
|
||||
resolve_time: result.resolve_time,
|
||||
},
|
||||
},
|
||||
//"status": result.status,
|
||||
//"publish_time": result.publish_time,
|
||||
//"close_time": result.close_time,
|
||||
//"type": result.possibilities.type, // We want binary ones here.
|
||||
//"last_activity_time": result.last_activity_time,
|
||||
};
|
||||
if (Number(result.number_of_predictions) >= 10) {
|
||||
console.log(`- ${interestingInfo.title}`);
|
||||
all_questions.push(interestingInfo);
|
||||
if ((!j && i % 20 == 0) || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
|
||||
console.log(interestingInfo);
|
||||
j = true;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log("- [Skipping public prediction]");
|
||||
}
|
||||
const metaculusQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(
|
||||
next
|
||||
);
|
||||
const results = metaculusQuestions.results;
|
||||
|
||||
let j = false;
|
||||
|
||||
for (const result of results) {
|
||||
const question = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestion(result);
|
||||
if (!question) {
|
||||
continue;
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(`- ${question.title}`);
|
||||
if ((!j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args?.debug) {
|
||||
console.log(question);
|
||||
j = true;
|
||||
}
|
||||
allQuestions.push(question);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
next = metaculusQuestions.next;
|
||||
i = i + 1;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return all_questions;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
questions: allQuestions,
|
||||
partial: false,
|
||||
};
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
calculateStars(data) {
|
||||
const { numforecasts } = data.qualityindicators;
|
||||
let nuno = () =>
|
||||
const nuno = () =>
|
||||
(numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
|
||||
let eli = () => 3;
|
||||
let misha = () => 3;
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
const eli = () => 3;
|
||||
const misha = () => 3;
|
||||
const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
|
||||
const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
return starsInteger;
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user