From 32b09d813461daa09002b589b89bb997154afc1c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2021 17:43:11 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair --- .gitignore | 1 + data/betfair-questions.json | 1 + data/csetforetell-questions.csv | 30 +- data/csetforetell-questions.json | 194 +- data/elicit-questions.csv | 452 +- data/elicit-questions.json | 6130 +++++----- data/goodjudgment-questions.csv | 20 +- data/goodjudgment-questions.json | 52 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv | 326 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json | 641 +- data/hypermind-questions.csv | 22 +- data/hypermind-questions.json | 98 +- data/ladbrokes-questions.csv | 60 + data/ladbrokes-questions.json | 1604 +++ data/metaculus-questions.csv | 3119 +++-- data/metaculus-questions.json | 5059 ++++---- data/metaforecasts.json | 16587 +++++++++++++++----------- data/polymarket-questions.csv | 63 +- data/polymarket-questions.json | 412 +- data/predictit-questions.csv | 174 +- data/predictit-questions.json | 1232 +- data/smarkets-questions.csv | 36 +- data/smarkets-questions.json | 182 +- data/williamhill-questions.csv | 15 + data/williamhill-questions.json | 419 + node_modules/.package-lock.json | 104 +- package-lock.json | 617 +- package.json | 2 + src/betfair-fetch.js | 132 + src/index.js | 39 +- src/ladbrokes-fetch.js | 127 + src/stars.js | 24 + src/williamhill-fetch.js | 125 + 33 files changed, 21967 insertions(+), 16132 deletions(-) create mode 100644 data/betfair-questions.json create mode 100644 data/ladbrokes-questions.csv create mode 100644 data/ladbrokes-questions.json create mode 100644 data/williamhill-questions.csv create mode 100644 data/williamhill-questions.json create mode 100644 src/betfair-fetch.js create mode 100644 src/ladbrokes-fetch.js create mode 100644 src/williamhill-fetch.js diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 815c83e..0c919ba 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -1,3 +1,4 @@ /src/privatekeys.json node_modules/ possiblenewsources.md +/src/betfaircertificates/ diff --git a/data/betfair-questions.json b/data/betfair-questions.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0637a08 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/betfair-questions.json @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +[] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv index 75d0a09..a5e7c57 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv @@ -1,20 +1,28 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" +"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.138,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.32799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.32799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","5",2 +"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","3",2 +"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","2",2 +"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.4075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.1075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","4",2 "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10060000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.20489999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.34909999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","51",2 -"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World -","85",2 +"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World +","89",2 "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","135",3 +","138",3 "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2346,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.4254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.2125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" ","42",2 "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.3208,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.08460000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" ","40",2 -"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3165,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.16879999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.0463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump."" -","118",3 +"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.16010000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.30760000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump."" +","119",3 "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","96",2 -"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.0483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.32880000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","117",3 +"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.0479,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3299,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","118",3 "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.3496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.2823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","42",2 "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.3072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.11460000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.032799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** @@ -28,15 +36,15 @@ "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17550000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.36229999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. ","62",2 "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** -","268",3 -"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10949999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** -","197",3 +","269",3 +"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10949999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2441,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6078,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** +","199",3 "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19510000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2671,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","183",3 "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.31489999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.15839999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","115",3 "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today -","159",3 +","160",3 "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field ","188",3 "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.4219,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2838,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.15960000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index bea1eb7..f9e3aa5 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -1,4 +1,148 @@ [ + { + "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 7,500", + "probability": 0.064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", + "probability": 0.138, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", + "probability": 0.32799999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", + "probability": 0.142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 13,500", + "probability": 0.32799999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "5", + "numforecasters": "5", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 70,000", + "probability": 0.0333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", + "probability": 0.3333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", + "probability": 0.2267, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 130,000", + "probability": 0.23670000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3", + "numforecasters": "3", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $400 billion", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.245, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", + "probability": 0.305, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $775 billion", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "2", + "numforecasters": "2", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 3%", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", + "probability": 0.4075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", + "probability": 0.1075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 7.5%", + "probability": 0.045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4", + "numforecasters": "4", + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021", @@ -43,17 +187,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "89", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -73,8 +217,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "135", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "138", + "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -157,31 +301,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.156, + "probability": 0.16010000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3165, + "probability": 0.3186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.3125, + "probability": 0.30760000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.16879999999999998, + "probability": 0.1681, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0463, + "probability": 0.045599999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "118", + "numforecasts": "119", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -229,31 +373,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0483, + "probability": 0.0479, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3072, + "probability": 0.3015, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.32880000000000004, + "probability": 0.3299, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.1956, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1257, + "probability": 0.1252, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", + "numforecasts": "118", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, @@ -465,8 +609,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "268", - "numforecasters": "176", + "numforecasts": "269", + "numforecasters": "177", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -477,7 +621,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0392, + "probability": 0.038599999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -487,16 +631,16 @@ }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2432, + "probability": 0.2441, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6081, + "probability": 0.6078, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "197", + "numforecasts": "199", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, @@ -589,7 +733,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "124", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.csv b/data/elicit-questions.csv index 396d1e8..a25e200 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.csv +++ b/data/elicit-questions.csv @@ -1,13 +1,13 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,352,1 -"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8209913793103447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17900862068965528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,232,1 +"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.821587982832618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17841201716738198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,233,1 "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36962264150943397,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6303773584905661,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,159,1 "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,138,1 "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,114,1 "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,214,1 "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,116,1 -"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,119,1 "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,108,1 +"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,119,1 "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,110,1 "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,100,1 "How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,106,1 @@ -17,10 +17,10 @@ "How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1 "How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,82,1 "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1 -"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,86,1 "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1 -"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1 +"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,86,1 "How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1 +"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1 "How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1 "How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,76,1 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,85,1 @@ -38,315 +38,315 @@ "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 -"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 -"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 """There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 -"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 +"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 "No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 +"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 "California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,38,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1 +"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,38,1 "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8055769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19442307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,52,1 "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20079999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2637037037037037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7362962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 "The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 """I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1 +"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 +"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 -"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8088888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 +"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8088888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 +"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 -"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 -"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13080000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8340740740740741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16592592592592592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 +"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8641666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13583333333333325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8334615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16653846153846164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 """by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 """Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1 +"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1 -"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 +"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 +"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 \ No newline at end of file +"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json index 00ce7d5..6808913 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.json +++ b/data/elicit-questions.json @@ -26,17 +26,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8209913793103447, + "probability": 0.821587982832618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17900862068965528, + "probability": 0.17841201716738198, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 232, - "numforecasters": 124, + "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasters": 125, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -139,26 +139,6 @@ "numforecasters": 87, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5068067226890757, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4931932773109243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 119, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -179,6 +159,26 @@ "numforecasters": 77, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5068067226890757, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4931932773109243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -359,26 +359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 67, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7812790697674419, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21872093023255812, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 86, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -400,23 +380,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "probability": 0.7812790697674419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "probability": 0.21872093023255812, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 80, - "numforecasters": 63, + "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -439,6 +419,26 @@ "numforecasters": 63, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -779,66 +779,6 @@ "numforecasters": 30, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 40, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38967741935483874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6103225806451613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -880,22 +820,82 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08806451612903227, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9119354838709677, + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38967741935483874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6103225806451613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, @@ -920,22 +920,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "probability": 0.08806451612903227, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "probability": 0.9119354838709677, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 31, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, @@ -999,26 +999,6 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10552631578947368, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8944736842105263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 38, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1039,6 +1019,26 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10552631578947368, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8944736842105263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1059,6 +1059,26 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8055769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19442307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasters": 25, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1079,26 +1099,6 @@ "numforecasters": 25, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20079999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 24, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1139,46 +1139,6 @@ "numforecasters": 24, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5855882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41441176470588237, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2439285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7560714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 28, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1219,6 +1179,46 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5855882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41441176470588237, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2439285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7560714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1259,26 +1259,6 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1299,6 +1279,26 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1359,26 +1359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6084375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39156250000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1399,6 +1379,26 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6084375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39156250000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1439,26 +1439,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13119999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1479,26 +1459,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.994090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.005909090909090975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1519,6 +1479,46 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.994090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.005909090909090975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1540,18 +1540,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1580,18 +1580,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1639,6 +1639,26 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1659,6 +1679,26 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1680,43 +1720,83 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "probability": 0.0695, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "probability": 0.9305, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7947619047619048, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13249999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -1780,22 +1860,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8088888888888889, + "probability": 0.02210526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19111111111111112, + "probability": 0.9778947368421053, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7243478260869566, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2756521739130434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8313636363636364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16863636363636358, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1839,26 +1959,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8313636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16863636363636358, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1880,22 +1980,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.8088888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.19111111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 27, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1940,103 +2040,43 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "probability": 0.6434000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7947619047619048, + "probability": 0.3565999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8675, + "probability": 0.6427777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13249999999999995, + "probability": 0.35722222222222233, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0695, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9305, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7243478260869566, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2756521739130434, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02210526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9778947368421053, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -2079,46 +2119,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6434000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3565999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2139,26 +2139,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2179,26 +2159,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6427777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35722222222222233, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2220,38 +2180,98 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8395238095238095, + "probability": 0.8692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16047619047619055, + "probability": 0.13080000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "probability": 0.8340740740740741, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "probability": 0.16592592592592592, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2279,46 +2299,6 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2340,138 +2320,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8641666666666667, + "probability": 0.8395238095238095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13583333333333325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8334615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16653846153846164, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2161904761904762, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7838095238095237, + "probability": 0.16047619047619055, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2500,23 +2360,143 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, + "probability": 0.3095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, + "probability": 0.6905, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2161904761904762, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7838095238095237, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -2539,26 +2519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4288888888888889, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5711111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2579,26 +2539,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7770588235294117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2229411764705883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2619,46 +2559,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8089473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2680,22 +2580,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3466666666666666, + "probability": 0.7770588235294117, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6533333333333333, + "probability": 0.2229411764705883, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2720,142 +2660,82 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.3466666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.6533333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "probability": 0.4288888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "probability": 0.5711111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5689655172413793, + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43103448275862066, + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "probability": 0.43473684210526314, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "probability": 0.5652631578947369, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2879,26 +2759,6 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2920,18 +2780,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2940,38 +2800,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2979,6 +2819,46 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3000,18 +2880,118 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "probability": 0.294375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.705625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5689655172413793, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43103448275862066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3040,63 +3020,43 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43473684210526314, + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5652631578947369, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09823529411764706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.933125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -3119,206 +3079,6 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9214285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05941176470588236, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9405882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3339,6 +3099,146 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3359,26 +3259,6 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3400,22 +3280,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3440,22 +3340,142 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05941176470588236, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9405882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9214285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3480,22 +3500,122 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "probability": 0.3375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "probability": 0.6625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.106875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.893125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7389473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2610526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3520,38 +3640,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "probability": 0.2675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "probability": 0.7324999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3559,46 +3679,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2764285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7235714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3620,82 +3700,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44153846153846155, + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - 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", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24333333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7566666666666667, + "probability": 0.1316666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4139,126 +4079,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9535714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21076923076923082, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49242424242424243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5075757575757576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4280,22 +4100,82 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.696923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.303076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4310526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5689473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49242424242424243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5075757575757576, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4319,106 +4199,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6083333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3916666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4440,18 +4220,378 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, + "probability": 0.04642857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "probability": 0.9535714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9235714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4607142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5392857142857144, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24333333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7566666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6083333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3916666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07714285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9228571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46692307692307694, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.533076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4479,126 +4619,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46692307692307694, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.533076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9235714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.696923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.303076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4620,98 +4640,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07714285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9228571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4607142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5392857142857144, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.994, + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4719,6 +4659,106 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4740,18 +4780,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "probability": 0.08923076923076924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "probability": 0.9107692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4760,18 +4800,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4780,18 +4820,78 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4820,58 +4920,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6866666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4880,18 +4940,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4899,6 +4979,46 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4940,22 +5060,122 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4979,166 +5199,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28428571428571425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7157142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21272727272727274, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7872727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "50 million", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5159,106 +5219,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4307692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5692307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08923076923076924, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9107692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5280,18 +5240,78 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "probability": 0.5685714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6836363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5300,22 +5320,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.7525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5339,6 +5399,46 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5360,18 +5460,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03769230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9623076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5400,18 +5520,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5420,18 +5560,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5440,18 +5580,98 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "probability": 0.9325, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5480,38 +5700,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5685714285714285, + "probability": 0.140625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "probability": 0.859375, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03769230769230769, + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9623076923076923, + "probability": 0.543076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5519,126 +5739,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5557142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4442857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2809090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7190909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5659,6 +5759,26 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5680,138 +5800,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "probability": 0.10916666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6836363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, + "probability": 0.8908333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "probability": 0.22083333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "probability": 0.7791666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4107692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5892307692307692, + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5820,38 +5860,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "probability": 0.204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6910000000000001, + "probability": 0.796, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5859,6 +5879,66 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17923076923076922, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8207692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.750909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24909090909090903, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5880,78 +5960,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, + "probability": 0.09357142857142858, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5329999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "probability": 0.9064285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5960,18 +5980,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "probability": 0.07090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "probability": 0.9290909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.060909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9390909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6910000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5980,18 +6040,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.783, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17300000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.827, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6040,18 +6120,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "probability": 0.3346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "probability": 0.6653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6060,18 +6140,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6079,66 +6179,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17923076923076922, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8207692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6160,42 +6200,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.556, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44399999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, @@ -6220,38 +6240,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.113, + "probability": 0.155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, + "probability": 0.845, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6260,38 +6260,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09357142857142858, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9064285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.796, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6300,18 +6280,238 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.025, + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.975, + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.467, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5329999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.587, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.261, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.739, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3681818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4107692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9114285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6340,42 +6540,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44166666666666665, + "probability": 0.5690909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5583333333333333, + "probability": 0.4309090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, @@ -6399,6 +6579,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6420,102 +6620,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.750909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24909090909090903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7791666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17300000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, @@ -6540,38 +6660,98 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07090909090909091, + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9290909090909091, + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.060909090909090906, + "probability": 0.025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9390909090909091, + "probability": 0.975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.887, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6600,98 +6780,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "probability": 0.44166666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3346153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6653846153846155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10916666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "probability": 0.5583333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6700,123 +6800,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "probability": 0.556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9114285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.261, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.739, + "probability": 0.44399999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4309090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.587, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3681818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6318181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv index 05c23eb..4eea32a 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",,4 +"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",,4 "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by Johns Hopkins of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.",,4 "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",,4 -"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.",,4 -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",,4 -"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.",,4 -"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",,4 -"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",,4 -"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",,4 +"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.",,4 +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",,4 +"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.",,4 +"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",,4 +"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",,4 +"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",,4 "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ",,4 "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.",,4 "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",,4 -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",,4 -"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4 \ No newline at end of file +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",,4 +"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json index ba5aaa0..db040e0 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -124,12 +124,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -147,7 +147,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -181,12 +181,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -220,17 +220,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 November 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -249,12 +249,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -278,17 +278,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -298,7 +298,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -322,7 +322,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -423,7 +423,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -438,7 +438,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -457,12 +457,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv index ec26a92..f8c5a1a 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv @@ -1,102 +1,110 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. -","42",3 -"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. -","75",3 -"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). -","38",3 -"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. -","77",3 -"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","55",3 -"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","127",3 -"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. -NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  -","203",3 -"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","122",3 -"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). -NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. -","117",3 -"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). +"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). +","20",3 +"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. +","21",3 +"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). +","15",3 +"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). +","24",3 +"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. +","43",3 +"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. +","79",3 +"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). +","40",3 +"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. +","87",3 +"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. ","65",3 -"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). -","409",3 -"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). -NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. -","292",3 -"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). -","307",3 -"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). -","187",3 -"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. -","206",3 -"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. -","57",3 -"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). -","129",3 -"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). -","102",3 -"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. -","98",3 -"Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727. -","206",3 -"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). -","401",3 -"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). +"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","156",3 +"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. +NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  +","228",3 +"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","148",3 +"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). +NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. +","119",3 +"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). ","66",3 +"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). +","421",3 +"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). +NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. +","304",3 +"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). +","322",3 +"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). +","191",3 +"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. +","217",3 +"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. +","61",3 +"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). +","136",3 +"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). +","105",3 +"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. +","103",3 +"Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727. +","229",3 +"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). +","417",3 +"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). +","67",3 "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). -","137",3 +","141",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). -","168",3 +","171",3 "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. -","82",3 +","84",3 "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. -","183",3 +","187",3 "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). -","160",3 +","162",3 "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). ","157",3 -"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). -","144",3 +"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). +","147",3 "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). ","125",3 -"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. -","137",3 +"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. +","139",3 "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -","102",3 -"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. -","238",3 +","103",3 +"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. +","248",3 "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. -","222",3 -"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. -","132",3 +","225",3 +"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. +","134",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). -","88",3 +","90",3 "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. ","83",3 "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). -","179",3 +","183",3 "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. -","133",3 +","134",3 "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. -","223",3 +","227",3 "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","338",3 -"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" -","313",3 -"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e2818e83908b848b8183968b8d8c91a2858d8d86889786858f878c96cc818d8fdd91978088878196dfb3978791968b8d8cc7d0d2a18e83908b848b8183968b8d8c). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","340",3 +"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" ","325",3 +"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. +","330",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","147",3 +","150",3 "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). -","235",3 +","240",3 "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? @@ -104,123 +112,123 @@ Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de r Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","82",3 "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. -","156",3 +","157",3 "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. -","71",3 +","72",3 "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. -","164",3 +","166",3 "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). -","90",3 +","91",3 "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). -","212",3 -"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. -","156",3 +","215",3 +"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. +","157",3 "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. ","112",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. -","252",3 +","254",3 "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. ","235",3 "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). ","105",3 "Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","356",3 +","359",3 "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). ","183",3 "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). ","200",3 -"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). +"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#90f3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffee3d0f7fffff4fae5f4f7fdf5fee4bef3fffdafe3e5f2faf5f3e4adc1e5f5e3e4f9fffeb5a2a0d3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffe). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","166",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d1b2bdb0a3b8b7b8b2b0a5b8bebfa291b6bebeb5bba4b5b6bcb4bfa5ffb2bebceea2a4b3bbb4b2a5ec80a4b4a2a5b8bebff4e3e192bdb0a3b8b7b8b2b0a5b8bebf). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","169",3 "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). -","253",3 +","255",3 "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). ","214",3 "Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). -","318",3 +","322",3 "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. ","107",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). ","166",3 "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). -","172",3 +","173",3 "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. -","444",3 +","448",3 "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. -","410",3 +","414",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. ","275",3 "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). -","350",3 +","351",3 "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. -","276",3 +","277",3 "Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) -","407",3 +","411",3 "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). -","312",3 -"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution. -","239",3 +","315",3 +"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution. +","241",3 "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. -","250",3 +","252",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). ","84",3 "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  -","386",3 +","387",3 "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. ","101",3 "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","73",3 -"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). -","237",3 -"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). -","119",3 +","75",3 +"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). +","241",3 +"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). +","123",3 "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","408",3 +","412",3 "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. -","187",3 +","189",3 "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","533",3 +","538",3 "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. -","525",3 +","528",3 "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). -","1611",3 +","1637",3 "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. -","503",3 -"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). -","316",3 +","506",3 +"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). +","318",3 "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). -","510",3 +","511",3 "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). ","220",3 "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. -","311",3 -"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). -","301",3 +","314",3 +"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). +","305",3 "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). -","286",3 +","289",3 "At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. ","187",3 "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). -","226",3 +","229",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. -","313",3 +","314",3 "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). ","265",3 "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). -","1380",3 +","1390",3 "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). -","283",3 +","284",3 "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). ","203",3 "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). @@ -229,96 +237,96 @@ NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would co "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  ","130",3 "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. -","535",3 -"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. -","713",3 -"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). -","443",3 +","538",3 +"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. +","718",3 +"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). +","449",3 "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. -","462",3 +","463",3 "When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). -","444",3 +","446",3 "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","210",3 "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). ","408",3 -"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). -","333",3 +"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). +","338",3 "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). -","672",3 +","675",3 "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). -","1132",3 +","1136",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. ","383",3 "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. -","325",3 +","326",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","700",3 -"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. -","819",3 +","705",3 +"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. +","824",3 "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","205",3 "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","323",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). -","618",3 +","624",3 "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. ","468",3 -"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. -","255",3 +"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. +","260",3 "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. -","366",3 +","368",3 "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. -","285",3 +","287",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). -","272",3 -"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. -","815",3 +","273",3 +"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. +","825",3 "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#84e7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebeaf7c4e3ebebe0eef1e0e3e9e1eaf0aae7ebe9bbf7f1e6eee1e7f0b9d5f1e1f7f0edebeaa1b6b4c7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebea). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5b38373a29323d32383a2f323435281b3c34343f312e3f3c363e352f7538343664282e39313e382f660a2e3e282f3234357e696b18373a29323d32383a2f323435). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","290",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7b18171a09121d12181a0f121415083b1c14141f110e1f1c161e150f5518141644080e19111e180f462a0e1e080f1214155e494b38171a09121d12181a0f121415). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","632",3 +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#90f3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffee3d0f7fffff4fae5f4f7fdf5fee4bef3fffdafe3e5f2faf5f3e4adc1e5f5e3e4f9fffeb5a2a0d3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","634",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. ","241",3 -"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). +"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. -","247",3 +","248",3 "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All."" ","232",3 "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7f1c131e0d1619161c1e0b1610110c3f1810101b150a1b18121a110b511c1012400c0a1d151a1c0b422e0a1a0c0b1610115a4d4f3c131e0d1619161c1e0b161011). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1160",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bad9d6dbc8d3dcd3d9dbced3d5d4c9faddd5d5ded0cfdeddd7dfd4ce94d9d5d785c9cfd8d0dfd9ce87ebcfdfc9ced3d5d49f888af9d6dbc8d3dcd3d9dbced3d5d4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1162",3 "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#73101f12011a151a1012071a1c1d0033141c1c17190617141e161d075d101c1e4c000611191610074e22061600071a1c1d564143301f12011a151a1012071a1c1d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1911",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dfbcb3beadb6b9b6bcbeabb6b0b1ac9fb8b0b0bbb5aabbb8b2bab1abf1bcb0b2e0acaabdb5babcabe28eaabaacabb6b0b1faedef9cb3beadb6b9b6bcbeabb6b0b1). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1940",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","239",3 -"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ee8d828f9c8788878d8f9a8781809dae8981818a849b8a89838b809ac08d8183d19d9b8c848b8d9ad3bf9b8b9d9a878180cbdcdead828f9c8788878d8f9a878180). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1051",3 +"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1056",3 "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. ","289",3 "How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (>22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"". -","280",3 +","281",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#caa9a6abb8a3aca3a9abbea3a5a4b98aada5a5aea0bfaeada7afa4bee4a9a5a7f5b9bfa8a0afa9bef79bbfafb9bea3a5a4eff8fa89a6abb8a3aca3a9abbea3a5a4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","390",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#50333c3122393639333124393f3e2310373f3f343a2534373d353e247e333f3d6f2325323a3533246d0125352324393f3e756260133c3122393639333124393f3e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","391",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","186",3 "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). -","279",3 +","280",3 "What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. -","423",3 +","425",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. ","265",3 diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index 2433705..1678ad3 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -1,4 +1,123 @@ [ + { + "title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "20", + "numforecasters": "17", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 19.0 million", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "21", + "numforecasters": "19", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $25 billion", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $55 billion", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "15", + "numforecasters": "14", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "22", + "stars": 3 + }, { "title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", @@ -7,17 +126,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -36,7 +155,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "42", + "numforecasts": "43", "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3 }, @@ -53,22 +172,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "75", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -79,16 +198,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasts": "40", "numforecasters": "32", "stars": 3 }, @@ -100,17 +219,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -129,8 +248,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "77", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -146,7 +265,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -156,7 +275,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -190,8 +309,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "55", - "numforecasters": "30", + "numforecasts": "65", + "numforecasters": "32", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -212,7 +331,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -222,7 +341,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -251,8 +370,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -283,22 +402,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -317,8 +436,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "203", - "numforecasters": "95", + "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -334,22 +453,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -378,8 +497,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "122", - "numforecasters": "52", + "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -390,17 +509,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "119", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -411,12 +530,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -425,8 +544,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "65", - "numforecasters": "37", + "numforecasts": "66", + "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -437,17 +556,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "409", - "numforecasters": "332", + "numforecasts": "421", + "numforecasters": "338", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -463,12 +582,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -478,12 +597,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "292", - "numforecasters": "233", + "numforecasts": "304", + "numforecasters": "240", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -494,17 +613,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "307", - "numforecasters": "281", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "292", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -515,17 +634,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "191", + "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -536,22 +655,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 8,000,000", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -560,8 +679,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", - "numforecasters": "163", + "numforecasts": "217", + "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -577,27 +696,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $5.00", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "57", - "numforecasters": "22", + "numforecasts": "61", + "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -608,17 +727,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -632,8 +751,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "129", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -654,12 +773,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -668,8 +787,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -685,16 +804,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3 }, @@ -706,17 +825,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "229", + "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -741,8 +860,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "401", - "numforecasters": "296", + "numforecasts": "417", + "numforecasters": "305", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -753,16 +872,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", + "numforecasts": "67", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, @@ -783,7 +902,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", + "numforecasts": "141", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -804,7 +923,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasts": "171", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -825,8 +944,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "49", + "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -846,8 +965,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", - "numforecasters": "108", + "numforecasts": "187", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -867,7 +986,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", + "numforecasts": "162", "numforecasters": "130", "stars": 3 }, @@ -910,17 +1029,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "144", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -972,17 +1091,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1002,7 +1121,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1014,17 +1133,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "238", - "numforecasters": "104", + "numforecasts": "248", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1054,7 +1173,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "222", + "numforecasts": "225", "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1066,22 +1185,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1090,7 +1209,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "132", + "numforecasts": "134", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1111,8 +1230,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "88", - "numforecasters": "53", + "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1158,8 +1277,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "179", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "183", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1179,8 +1298,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "133", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "134", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1200,15 +1319,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "223", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "227", + "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e2818e83908b848b8183968b8d8c91a2858d8d86889786858f878c96cc818d8fdd91978088878196dfb3978791968b8d8cc7d0d2a18e83908b848b8183968b8d8c). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1221,7 +1340,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "338", + "numforecasts": "340", "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1248,16 +1367,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "313", + "numforecasts": "325", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1269,7 +1388,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1279,7 +1398,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1293,8 +1412,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "325", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "330", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1314,7 +1433,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasts": "150", "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1335,8 +1454,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "235", - "numforecasters": "141", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1387,7 +1506,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1413,7 +1532,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "71", + "numforecasts": "72", "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1439,8 +1558,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "164", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "166", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1460,7 +1579,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasts": "91", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1496,7 +1615,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasts": "215", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1508,16 +1627,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1564,7 +1683,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasts": "254", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1627,8 +1746,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "356", - "numforecasters": "212", + "numforecasts": "359", + "numforecasters": "214", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1687,11 +1806,11 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#90f3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffee3d0f7fffff4fae5f4f7fdf5fee4bef3fffdafe3e5f2faf5f3e4adc1e5f5e3e4f9fffeb5a2a0d3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffe). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d1b2bdb0a3b8b7b8b2b0a5b8bebfa291b6bebeb5bba4b5b6bcb4bfa5ffb2bebceea2a4b3bbb4b2a5ec80a4b4a2a5b8bebff4e3e192bdb0a3b8b7b8b2b0a5b8bebf). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1701,12 +1820,12 @@ }, { "name": "There will be a draw", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "166", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "169", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1741,7 +1860,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "253", + "numforecasts": "255", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1788,8 +1907,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "318", - "numforecasters": "137", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1856,7 +1975,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasts": "173", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1882,8 +2001,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "444", - "numforecasters": "192", + "numforecasts": "448", + "numforecasters": "193", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1913,7 +2032,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "410", + "numforecasts": "414", "numforecasters": "210", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1955,7 +2074,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "350", + "numforecasts": "351", "numforecasters": "225", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1976,7 +2095,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", + "numforecasts": "277", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1997,7 +2116,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "407", + "numforecasts": "411", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2028,7 +2147,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "312", + "numforecasts": "315", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2040,17 +2159,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2085,7 +2204,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "250", + "numforecasts": "252", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2127,7 +2246,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "386", + "numforecasts": "387", "numforecasters": "203", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2169,7 +2288,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "73", + "numforecasts": "75", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2191,12 +2310,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2205,7 +2324,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "237", + "numforecasts": "241", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2217,7 +2336,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only for president", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2227,7 +2346,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2236,7 +2355,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "119", + "numforecasts": "123", "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2257,8 +2376,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "408", - "numforecasters": "194", + "numforecasts": "412", + "numforecasters": "195", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2298,7 +2417,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", + "numforecasts": "189", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2319,7 +2438,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "533", + "numforecasts": "538", "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2355,7 +2474,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "525", + "numforecasts": "528", "numforecasters": "247", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2391,8 +2510,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1611", - "numforecasters": "565", + "numforecasts": "1637", + "numforecasters": "574", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2422,7 +2541,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "503", + "numforecasts": "506", "numforecasters": "214", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2434,16 +2553,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "316", + "numforecasts": "318", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2464,7 +2583,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "510", + "numforecasts": "511", "numforecasters": "227", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2506,7 +2625,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "311", + "numforecasts": "314", "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2518,17 +2637,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "305", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2563,7 +2682,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasts": "289", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2610,7 +2729,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "226", + "numforecasts": "229", "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2631,8 +2750,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "313", - "numforecasters": "166", + "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2688,7 +2807,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1380", + "numforecasts": "1390", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2709,7 +2828,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", + "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2823,7 +2942,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "535", + "numforecasts": "538", "numforecasters": "151", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2835,16 +2954,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "713", + "numforecasts": "718", "numforecasters": "155", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2856,17 +2975,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2880,8 +2999,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "443", - "numforecasters": "206", + "numforecasts": "449", + "numforecasters": "210", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2916,7 +3035,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "462", + "numforecasts": "463", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2947,7 +3066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "444", + "numforecasts": "446", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3006,12 +3125,12 @@ }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3021,7 +3140,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3035,8 +3154,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "333", - "numforecasters": "112", + "numforecasts": "338", + "numforecasters": "113", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3071,7 +3190,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "672", + "numforecasts": "675", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3092,7 +3211,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1132", + "numforecasts": "1136", "numforecasters": "451", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3134,7 +3253,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "325", + "numforecasts": "326", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3155,7 +3274,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "700", + "numforecasts": "705", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3177,7 +3296,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3187,11 +3306,11 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "819", + "numforecasts": "824", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3254,7 +3373,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "618", + "numforecasts": "624", "numforecasters": "184", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3312,16 +3431,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "255", + "numforecasts": "260", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3357,7 +3476,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "366", + "numforecasts": "368", "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3388,7 +3507,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "285", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3424,7 +3543,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "272", + "numforecasts": "273", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3446,24 +3565,24 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "815", - "numforecasters": "277", + "numforecasts": "825", + "numforecasters": "284", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#84e7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebeaf7c4e3ebebe0eef1e0e3e9e1eaf0aae7ebe9bbf7f1e6eee1e7f0b9d5f1e1f7f0edebeaa1b6b4c7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebea). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5b38373a29323d32383a2f323435281b3c34343f312e3f3c363e352f7538343664282e39313e382f660a2e3e282f3234357e696b18373a29323d32383a2f323435). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3484,7 +3603,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7b18171a09121d12181a0f121415083b1c14141f110e1f1c161e150f5518141644080e19111e180f462a0e1e080f1214155e494b38171a09121d12181a0f121415). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#90f3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffee3d0f7fffff4fae5f4f7fdf5fee4bef3fffdafe3e5f2faf5f3e4adc1e5f5e3e4f9fffeb5a2a0d3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3497,7 +3616,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "632", + "numforecasts": "634", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3550,21 +3669,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasts": "248", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3608,7 +3727,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7f1c131e0d1619161c1e0b1610110c3f1810101b150a1b18121a110b511c1012400c0a1d151a1c0b422e0a1a0c0b1610115a4d4f3c131e0d1619161c1e0b161011). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bad9d6dbc8d3dcd3d9dbced3d5d4c9faddd5d5ded0cfdeddd7dfd4ce94d9d5d785c9cfd8d0dfd9ce87ebcfdfc9ced3d5d49f888af9d6dbc8d3dcd3d9dbced3d5d4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -3636,7 +3755,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1160", + "numforecasts": "1162", "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3644,7 +3763,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#73101f12011a151a1012071a1c1d0033141c1c17190617141e161d075d101c1e4c000611191610074e22061600071a1c1d564143301f12011a151a1012071a1c1d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dfbcb3beadb6b9b6bcbeabb6b0b1ac9fb8b0b0bbb5aabbb8b2bab1abf1bcb0b2e0acaabdb5babcabe28eaabaacabb6b0b1faedef9cb3beadb6b9b6bcbeabb6b0b1). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -3667,15 +3786,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1911", - "numforecasters": "791", + "numforecasts": "1940", + "numforecasters": "803", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3696,20 +3815,20 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ee8d828f9c8788878d8f9a8781809dae8981818a849b8a89838b809ac08d8183d19d9b8c848b8d9ad3bf9b8b9d9a878180cbdcdead828f9c8788878d8f9a878180). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1051", + "numforecasts": "1056", "numforecasters": "461", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3781,7 +3900,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasts": "281", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3789,7 +3908,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#caa9a6abb8a3aca3a9abbea3a5a4b98aada5a5aea0bfaeada7afa4bee4a9a5a7f5b9bfa8a0afa9bef79bbfafb9bea3a5a4eff8fa89a6abb8a3aca3a9abbea3a5a4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#50333c3122393639333124393f3e2310373f3f343a2534373d353e247e333f3d6f2325323a3533246d0125352324393f3e756260133c3122393639333124393f3e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -3812,7 +3931,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasts": "391", "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3869,7 +3988,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3905,7 +4024,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "423", + "numforecasts": "425", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.csv b/data/hypermind-questions.csv index f7fe83a..a6cde8a 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.csv +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.csv @@ -3,32 +3,32 @@ "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",,3 "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",,3 "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",,3 -"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6391752577319587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.13402061855670103,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.18556701030927833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04123711340206185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3 +"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5742574257425743,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3 "On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.04901960784313725,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.18811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.8019801980198019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",,3 -"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.020408163265306124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.11224489795918367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.23469387755102042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.3469387755102041,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.28571428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",,3 +"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",,3 +"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.24509803921568626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.38235294117647056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.2647058823529412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",,3 "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",,3 -"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.3604651162790698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.09302325581395349,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.058139534883720936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.48837209302325585,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3 +"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.30392156862745096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.04901960784313725,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.5686274509803921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3 "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",,3 "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 "In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.8673469387755103,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.10204081632653061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",,3 -"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.1941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.4271844660194175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.1359223300970874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2233009708737864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3 +"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.16190476190476188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.3904761904761904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.16190476190476188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.26666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3 "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",,3 -"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23711340206185563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.24742268041237112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5154639175257731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",,3 +"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",,3 "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.14423076923076925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.7788461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3 "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.6534653465346534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.2277227722772277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 "When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 "Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",,3 -"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9306930693069307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3 +"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3 "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?"" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index 810ba12..7761756 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -82,57 +82,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5784313725490197, + "probability": 0.5742574257425743, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,22 +146,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.6391752577319587, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.13402061855670103, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.18556701030927833, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.04123711340206185, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -194,17 +194,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.9313725490196079, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.04901960784313725, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -218,17 +218,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.18811881188118812, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.8019801980198019, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same medals count", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -257,32 +257,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.11224489795918367, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.23469387755102042, + "probability": 0.24509803921568626, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.3469387755102041, + "probability": 0.38235294117647056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.28571428571428575, + "probability": 0.2647058823529412, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -315,22 +315,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.3604651162790698, + "probability": 0.30392156862745096, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.09302325581395349, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.058139534883720936, + "probability": 0.04901960784313725, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.48837209302325585, + "probability": 0.5686274509803921, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -513,27 +513,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.1941747572815534, + "probability": 0.16190476190476188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.4271844660194175, + "probability": 0.3904761904761904, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.16190476190476188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.2233009708737864, + "probability": 0.26666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -571,17 +571,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.23711340206185563, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.24742268041237112, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.5154639175257731, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -668,22 +668,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.6534653465346534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.2277227722772277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -697,22 +697,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -807,12 +807,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9306930693069307, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8cbe40c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" +"2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Election Winner","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.098426094445168,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.0405283918303633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.0405283918303633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.13779653222323524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.1531072580258169,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.03280869814838934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.02026419591518165,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Republican Nominee","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.028769063338197235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.186998911698282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05753812667639447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki 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Nominee","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.02658891439825921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3013410298469377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.31499062353338436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.03477011882849281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04304871854956253,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02658891439825921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.04304871854956253,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 US Presidential Election: Winning Party","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Democrats"",""probability"":0.49722140976893836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republicans"",""probability"":0.47484644632933615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.027932143901725656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 US Presidential Election: Republican Ticket (Nominee + VP)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Hawley + Haley"",""probability"":0.04277908454782048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump + Pence"",""probability"":0.16859992145317484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump + Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08513461380308829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlson + Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.04277908454782048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump + Hawley"",""probability"":0.16859992145317484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hawley + Donald Trump 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Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan (Lab)"",""probability"":0.877670711241192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey (Cons)"",""probability"":0.05369279645240234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose (Ind)"",""probability"":0.02684639822620117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Under 35%"",""probability"":0.04261025029797378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""35-40%"",""probability"":0.08134684147794995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.3253873659117998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 50%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Winner without Sadiq Khan","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8245035008431204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sian Berry"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.033297256764818324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.025462608114272835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Most votes match bet","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Max Fosh"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Boris Johnson Specials: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.15682281059063136,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.1710794297352342,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.6720977596741344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Boris Johnson Specials: Leader at Next General Election?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""To be Tory leader at next general election"",""probability"":0.5263157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""NOT to be Tory leader at next general election"",""probability"":0.47368421052631576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.08506316571711667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8506316571711666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.055040871934604906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Majority Betting (over 30 Seats)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.2903930131004367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""NO Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.7096069868995633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Independence Referendum: Year Of Next Official Referendum (Sanctioned by UK and Scottish Governments)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.22419928825622776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09964412811387899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.09964412811387899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 2025"",""probability"":0.4483985765124555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.1281138790035587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5580386083220991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.41418865595462456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Year of next election","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04429530201342282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.08456375838926175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.20671140939597316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6644295302013423,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Overall Majority","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Conservative Majoirity"",""probability"":0.31460674157303375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.23595505617977533,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No Overall Majority"",""probability"":0.44943820224719105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish First Minister: Next Scottish First Minister","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Douglas 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Place","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.026311219173324074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.2981938172976728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.6577804793331018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Under 40%"",""probability"":0.04261988406540638,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.11187719567169174,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.341609757776158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50-55%"",""probability"":0.341609757776158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55-60%"",""probability"":0.12785965219621914,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 60%"",""probability"":0.0344237525143667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister on 1st Jan 2022?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Total Seats Over/Under","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Over"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Under"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Edinburgh Central","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.608410155137639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07964642030892728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.2695724995071385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Greens"",""probability"":0.033696562438392315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Andy Burnham (Lab)"",""probability"":0.947622401810383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Evans (Cons)"",""probability"":0.02842867205431149,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Conservative Party Leader: Next Permanent Leader","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.20231888744285167,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.046688974025273465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06743962914761722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.023344487012636733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.023344487012636733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.035703333078150296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt 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term","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33333333333333337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump to be elected President as a third party candidate","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump to run and win with over 75% of popular vote","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan NOT to win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Brian Rose to get over 5% of vote","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Shaun Bailey to get under 25% of R1 Vote","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4444444444444444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5555555555555556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"London Mayoral Election: Laurence Fox to get over 5% of vote","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Conservatives to increase their majority from 2019 (80 seats)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Conservatives Do Not Win Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Conservatives fail to win a majority","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7518796992481203,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24812030075187974,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next UK General Election: Lib Dems to win over 25 seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4444444444444444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5555555555555556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Dehenna Davison to become UK PM before 2060","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"UK to rejoin EU before end 2025","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Rishi Sunak to become PM before next general election","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"David Lammy to be UK PM before end 2040","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.004975124378109453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9950248756218906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Marcus Rashford To Become Uk Pm Before 2060","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Libertarian Party to win US Presidential election before 2041","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Nigel Farage to become UK PM in 2021","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.004975124378109453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9950248756218906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Amanda Gorman to be elected US President in 2036","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9705882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/","LadBrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.004975124378109453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9950248756218906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..365063a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json @@ -0,0 +1,1604 @@ +[ + { + 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0.2222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7777777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "David Lammy to be UK PM before end 2040", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Marcus Rashford To Become Uk Pm Before 2060", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Libertarian Party to win US Presidential election before 2041", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9803921568627451, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Nigel Farage to become UK PM in 2021", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Amanda Gorman to be elected US President in 2036", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9705882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + } +] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.csv b/data/metaculus-questions.csv index 4665713..2bbd1b5 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.csv +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.csv @@ -1,4 +1,19 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" +"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/","Metaculus","[]","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): +Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. +Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. +As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. +Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. +What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? +There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. +If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. +If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. +",41,3 +"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/","Metaculus","[]","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. +Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. +This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? +The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. +",21,3 "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -13,7 +28,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---45 for the calendar year 2017 ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 -",99,3 +",110,3 "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? @@ -28,31 +43,28 @@ Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of c Given the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition: Large scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously. ",35,3 -"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. -While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. -The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: -Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions -When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? -This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -",319,3 -"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: -The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. ---[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) -CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. -The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. -As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. -Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? -This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. -The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. -In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. -",174,3 -"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","[]","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). -In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. -Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). -But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? -For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. -",292,3 +"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. +O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). +For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): +General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) +The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6. +How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? +This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation* +For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). +If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. +",57,3 +"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. +Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? +This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: +---Donald Trump +---Melania Trump +---Donald Trump Jr. +---Ivanka Trump +---Eric Trump +---Tiffany Trump +---Barron Trump +---Jared Kushner +",82,3 "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/","Metaculus","[]","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. @@ -70,6 +82,16 @@ Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) ",129,3 +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: +---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. +---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" +While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) +The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). +Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? +This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. +Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. +",91,3 "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -98,13 +120,24 @@ If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97 Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. (Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) ",2621,3 +"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: +""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"" +The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. +The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. +The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023. +",175,3 "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","[]","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question. As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021. On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? [https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics) Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.). If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source. -",230,3 +",231,3 +"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) +In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) +Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? +Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary +",540,3 "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus","[]","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. @@ -117,12 +150,7 @@ If the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the q If the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. ",40,3 -"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810. -A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv). -What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? -This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. -",59,3 -"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). +"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? @@ -133,17 +161,36 @@ And: The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",138,3 -"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","[]","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. -What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? -This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. -",232,3 -"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","[]","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. -The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" -On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? -The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" -If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. -",11,3 +",141,3 +"Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). +The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. +---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) +---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) +---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) +---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) +Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? +This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used: +---Income Measure: ""Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line"" +---Sample: ""All Individuals"" +The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively. +If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously. +November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for ""late 2021"". +",69,3 +"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. +Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. +As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. +How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? +This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. +The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. +If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. +",79,3 +"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. +Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? +--- +Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. +--- +The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. +",16,3 "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919), I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis. You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court. @@ -152,6 +199,12 @@ The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports. ",114,3 +"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","[]","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. +On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". +When will the US-EU border reopen? +Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. +Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. +",22,3 "When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/","Metaculus","[]","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets. Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. New Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. @@ -175,23 +228,85 @@ This question resolves negatively otherwise. The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. ",123,3 +"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. +A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague. +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): +Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) +With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right. +Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask: +Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: +--- +Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) +--- +Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) +--- +Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) +(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) +--- +Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) +--- +Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) +--- +Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) +--- +Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) +",27,3 +"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","[]","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. +Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. +What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? +The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. +Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: +A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic +B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. +C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. +I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. +I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. +",213,3 "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). -",238,3 -"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). -[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. -What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022? -This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). -GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -",115,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",35,3 +",240,3 +"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. +The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. +Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? +This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). +",42,3 +"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","[]","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. +According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: +According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. +Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel. +When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed +Resolution +This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). +This question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040. +The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. +The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say: +---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia +---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island +",73,3 +"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.” +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). +Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? +This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources. +",48,3 +"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? +Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? +The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. +An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) +",1087,3 +"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: +The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. +--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) +CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. +The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. +As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. +Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? +This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. +The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. +In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. +",175,3 "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","[]","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). [Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. @@ -202,24 +317,48 @@ What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensit Resolution This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out. -",70,3 +",71,3 +"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[]","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php). +See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, +1-- +The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. +2-- +The U.S. Geological Survey. +3-- +The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. +4-- +A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. +",107,3 +"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","[]","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. +Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? +The question will resolve: +1--Rishi Sunak +2--Michael Gove +3--Jeremy Hunt +4--Priti Patel +5--None of the above +The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. +If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +",160,3 "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023. ",95,3 -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. -",104,3 +"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","[]","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. +What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? +This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. +",236,3 "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. -",286,3 +",287,3 +"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","[]","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. +Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). +Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. +When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? +Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. +",37,3 "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus","[]","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. This question asks: What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). @@ -228,7 +367,23 @@ It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your e Resolution criteria: With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. -",79,3 +",80,3 +"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. +[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). +What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? +This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +",51,3 +"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. +International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. +Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). +Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. +What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? +For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. +(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) +",366,3 "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/","Metaculus","[]","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."" Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. @@ -241,11 +396,20 @@ If the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves amb The Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option. Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. ",83,3 -"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). -When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? -This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. -If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. -",142,3 +"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M. +On what date will this number reach 100M? +When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? +The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). +Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M. +If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M. +",134,3 +"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". +In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. +In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. +What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? +This question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025. +If there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. +",54,3 "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -259,15 +423,26 @@ At present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the The question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations. The consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",56,3 -"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ----[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) -Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. -Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? -This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO -If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. -Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. -",41,3 +",57,3 +"What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +In 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. +The onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. +However, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that: +“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.” +What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? +Predictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes. + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview). +",25,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +",38,3 "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. @@ -301,13 +476,6 @@ Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. ",104,3 -"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. -The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. -[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. -Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? -This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. -See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) -",203,3 "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -338,7 +506,18 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",24,3 +",25,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +",43,3 +"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. +The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. +[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. +Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? +This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. +See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) +",203,3 "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. @@ -355,18 +534,31 @@ This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapo "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",49,3 +",50,3 "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. ",225,3 +"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","[]","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), +By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. +To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] +Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” +When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? +This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. +",48,3 "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU. As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland"" More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks: Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01. ",12,3 +"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. +Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. +What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? +In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution. +This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article. +",13,3 "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions: @@ -382,13 +574,18 @@ If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions c Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. ",80,3 -"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. -What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? -The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. -You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] -",55,3 +"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. +Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. +The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. +So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035? +Definitions of success: +--- +There is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois. +--- +This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff. +--- +At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more. +",91,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -399,7 +596,22 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, a For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",148,3 +",156,3 +"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus","[]","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. +The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. +When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? +The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released. +",70,3 +"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","[]","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? +I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. +I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). +See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). +So what do you think? +When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? +This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. +Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). +If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". +",237,3 "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] @@ -417,16 +629,6 @@ By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a r By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. ",127,3 -"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","[]","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? -I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. -I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). -See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). -So what do you think? -When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? -This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. -Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). -If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". -",236,3 "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. @@ -434,21 +636,12 @@ Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously. .* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it. .^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. -",171,3 +",172,3 "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). ",69,3 -"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","[]","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). -Data sources: ----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) -What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. -In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. -",48,3 "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","[]","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): 4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. 4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. @@ -457,14 +650,21 @@ The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www. When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. -",356,3 -"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). -[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. -What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? -This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). -GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +",379,3 +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","[]","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. ",50,3 +"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. +However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: +When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? +Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. +",334,3 "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). @@ -476,7 +676,7 @@ The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](htt When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. -",109,3 +",110,3 "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble). What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021? @@ -485,8 +685,23 @@ For example: ---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously. -",32,3 -"Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms. +",33,3 +"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). +[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. +What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? +This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). +GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +",50,3 +"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). +[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. +What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022? +This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). +GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +",123,3 +"Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms. Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process. Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin. In view of the above, this question asks: @@ -497,7 +712,7 @@ This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. -",68,3 +",84,3 "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. @@ -517,10 +732,6 @@ The Princeton Review Dream Colleges The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%. This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030. ",43,3 -"How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall? -How will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents? -This question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score. -",103,3 "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? @@ -540,6 +751,10 @@ Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha E Well ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? To separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more. ",294,3 +"How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall? +How will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents? +This question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score. +",103,3 "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/","Metaculus","[]","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019. [On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976. @@ -551,18 +766,28 @@ This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corp This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019. The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.) ",109,3 +"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): +A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. +He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). +Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? +---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. +---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. +---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. +ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively +",509,3 "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/","Metaculus","[]","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. [Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. -",51,3 -"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. -When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? -This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. -'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. -",101,3 +",52,3 +"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","[]","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. +The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" +On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? +The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" +If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. +",16,3 "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? @@ -590,22 +815,16 @@ How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete w The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). ",39,3 -"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[]","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. -Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. -This question asks: -How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? -The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. -Related questions: ----[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ----[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ----[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) ----[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) -",91,3 +"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). +When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? +This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. +If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. +",142,3 "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -",214,3 +",219,3 "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? @@ -629,13 +848,7 @@ To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least on (Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.) (Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.) ",155,3 -"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. -Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). -In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: -Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? -This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. -",158,3 -"Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. +"Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. @@ -646,15 +859,22 @@ Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are current So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting. -",63,3 -"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. -The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. -Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). -Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. -Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? -This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). -If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. -",36,3 +",65,3 +"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. +Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). +In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: +Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? +This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. +",158,3 +"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context + +Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. +This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? + +Resolution Criteria + +This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. +",1306,3 "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies. European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of ""enriched"" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free. In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the ""[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)"" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project ""[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)"". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023. @@ -672,6 +892,27 @@ Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement. ",89,3 +"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. +[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. +This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? +This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question. +",254,3 +"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. +The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. +Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). +Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. +Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? +This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). +If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. +",36,3 +"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). +The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). +In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. +When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? +This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. +By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. +To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" +",133,3 "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/). Jeff McAulay argued, Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents. @@ -680,14 +921,6 @@ I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. ",89,3 -"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). -The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). -In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. -When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? -This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. -By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. -To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -",132,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. @@ -712,6 +945,13 @@ Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffai If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. ",85,3 +"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. +In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. +",79,3 "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/","Metaculus","[]","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions. @@ -722,31 +962,6 @@ When will the first human mission to Venus take place? This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. ",18,3 -"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[]","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). -Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: -1-- -[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. -2-- -[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. -3-- -[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. -4-- -[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. -Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? -The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022. -In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark: ---- -Penn Treebank: 13 ---- -WikiText-2: 7 ---- -WikiText-103: 18 ---- -1B Words: 5 -Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3. -The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. -Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. -",23,3 "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since. However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia. These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. @@ -764,16 +979,28 @@ Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. ",73,3 -"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. -The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). -When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? -This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". -",138,3 -"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. -(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) -When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? -The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. -",38,3 +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. +",110,3 +"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. +When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? +This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve +A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +",89,3 +"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). +On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). +When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? +This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. +",129,3 "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/","Metaculus","[]","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user. Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs. @@ -787,20 +1014,23 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously. ",15,3 -"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/). +"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. +(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) +When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? +The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. +",38,3 +"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. +The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). +When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? +This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". +",138,3 +"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/). The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660. Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)). [A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed. Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state. -",27,3 -"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/","Metaculus","[]","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. -New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. -In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner. -What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? -This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. -Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. -",87,3 +",28,3 "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? @@ -836,11 +1066,11 @@ When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. ",147,3 -"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. -How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? -The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. -The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. -",49,3 +"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810. +A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv). +What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? +This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. +",66,3 "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -871,18 +1101,39 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",24,3 -"In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election). -This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. -In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? -This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021 -",146,3 -"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: -""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"" -The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. -The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. -The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023. -",171,3 +",25,3 +"How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. +Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. +How many emoji related court cases in 2021? +Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. +",36,3 +"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. +How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? +The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. +The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. +",49,3 +"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","[]","Context +======= + +Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. +You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). +The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. +What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. +",26,3 +"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","[]","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). +While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). +When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? +The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. +The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)). +Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. +The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. +The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. +",28,3 "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), @@ -901,43 +1152,13 @@ The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [ Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. ",36,3 -"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","[]","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). -While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). -When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? -The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. -The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)). -Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. -The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. -The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. -",25,3 -"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","[]","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. -Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? -The question will resolve: -1--Rishi Sunak -2--Michael Gove -3--Jeremy Hunt -4--Priti Patel -5--None of the above -The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. -If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -",160,3 -"Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract), -An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. -The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. -[...] -Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided. -Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts. -[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), ""Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts."" -Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? -This question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A ""prominent platform"" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions, ---- -Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days. ---- -Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post. ---- -A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. -Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. -",15,3 +"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. +This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). +The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. +Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. +What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? +Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. +",37,3 "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. @@ -945,12 +1166,6 @@ If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surfa Will we find life on Mars by 2050? This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. ",65,3 -"When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/","Metaculus","[]","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. -[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) -[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) -This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? -Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. -",111,3 "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/","Metaculus","[]","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract, According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them. Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. @@ -958,7 +1173,13 @@ This question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint o In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? This question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter ""grabby aliens"", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology. ETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as "">10^16"". -",126,3 +",127,3 +"When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/","Metaculus","[]","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. +[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) +[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) +This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? +Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. +",111,3 "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- @@ -997,18 +1218,13 @@ If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. *As judged by a metaculus admin. ",66,3 -"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. -[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2? -This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. -If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. -If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -*As judged by a metaculus admin. -",59,3 +"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. +Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. +However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. +When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. +Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. +",210,3 "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/","Metaculus","[]","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023? Resolution @@ -1039,11 +1255,6 @@ My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that th Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively. ",35,3 -"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) -In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) -Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? -Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary -",534,3 "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): @@ -1051,29 +1262,21 @@ The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same. Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership). -",12,3 -"Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices. -The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis. -Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022. -Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election? -This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise. -If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous. -The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held. -",14,3 -"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. -The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",64,3 -"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. -According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. -In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. -This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? -In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. -",298,3 +",13,3 +"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. +While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. +The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: +Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions +When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? +This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. +",319,3 +"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","[]","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). +In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. +Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). +But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? +For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. +",292,3 "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals. The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame. ",165,3 @@ -1088,13 +1291,12 @@ As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear inciden Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. ",135,3 -"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. -The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. -Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. -When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? -This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. -As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded. -",27,3 +"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. +According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. +In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. +This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? +In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. +",298,3 "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: ---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); @@ -1106,7 +1308,24 @@ The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50. The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count. If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. -",79,3 +",83,3 +"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. +The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. +Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. +When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? +This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. +As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded. +",27,3 +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. +The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. +Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? +This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. +Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). +---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. +---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. +---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +",63,3 "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's ""cost per life saved"" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities? @@ -1129,6 +1348,14 @@ If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists). [1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program. ",43,3 +"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: +---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) +Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. +Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? +This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO +If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. +Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. +",41,3 "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome. On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/). After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no. @@ -1144,19 +1371,12 @@ The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation r Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. -",1099,3 +",1104,3 "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. *4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels. ",69,3 -"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M. -On what date will this number reach 100M? -When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? -The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). -Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M. -If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M. -",129,3 "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/","Metaculus","[]","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. @@ -1165,11 +1385,23 @@ It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases dete Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered. Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe. The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. -",254,3 +",255,3 +"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/","Metaculus","[]","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. +In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. +What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? +The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement. +",518,3 "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve? ""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index. ",206,3 +"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. +What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? +The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. +You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] +",55,3 "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. @@ -1188,31 +1420,16 @@ Data According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014: 2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720. ",133,3 -"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context - -Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. -This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? - -Resolution Criteria - -This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -",1306,3 +"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. +When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? +This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. +'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. +",101,3 "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. ",232,3 -"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. -Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? -This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -",89,3 -"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. -When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? -This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. -This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. -Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). -If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. -",188,3 "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. @@ -1256,33 +1473,49 @@ Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. ",968,3 +"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. +This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? +Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) +",199,3 +"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. +The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that: +“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” +Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. +“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. ""I think this is going to be a trend,"" he says.” +How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. +",27,3 +"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[]","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. +Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. +This question asks: +How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? +The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. +Related questions: +---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) +---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) +---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) +---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) +",91,3 "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/","Metaculus","[]","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items). In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? Resolution This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as ""> Dec 24, 2035"". ",98,3 -"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? -Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? -The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. -An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) -",1064,3 -"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. -This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? -Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) -",199,3 -"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: +"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again. Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. -",11,3 -"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. -[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. -In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? -This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. -",34,3 +",13,3 "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/","Metaculus","[]","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS? @@ -1304,44 +1537,54 @@ Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/wh There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. -",439,3 -"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): -A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. -He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). -Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? ----Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. ----Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. ----Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. -ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively -",509,3 -"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. -Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. -The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. -Australia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically. -The number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. -""Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether."" -Low prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers. -LUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/). -""The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040."" -In this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. -Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? -This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. -This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. -",26,3 +",444,3 +"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. +[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. +In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? +This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. +",34,3 +"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[]","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). +Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: +1-- +[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. +2-- +[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. +3-- +[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. +4-- +[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. +Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? +The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022. +In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark: +--- +Penn Treebank: 13 +--- +WikiText-2: 7 +--- +WikiText-103: 18 +--- +1B Words: 5 +Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3. +The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. +Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. +",23,3 +"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/","Metaculus","[]","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. +New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. +In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner. +What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? +This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. +Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. +",87,3 "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/","Metaculus","[]","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing. Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal. When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics? This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author. ",16,3 -"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. -However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). -The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. -Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? -What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? -This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). -in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. -Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",44,3 +"In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election). +This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. +In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? +This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021 +",147,3 "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/","Metaculus","[]","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...] @@ -1352,6 +1595,42 @@ In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3? After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"". ",342,3 +"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) +The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) +This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States? +For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals: +--- +Donald Trump +--- +Donald Trump Jr. +--- +Eric Trump +--- +Ivanka Trump +--- +Tiffany Trump +--- +Melania Trump +--- +Barron Trump +",552,3 +"Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract), +An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. +The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. +[...] +Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided. +Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts. +[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), ""Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts."" +Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? +This question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A ""prominent platform"" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions, +--- +Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days. +--- +Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post. +--- +A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. +Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. +",15,3 "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population. This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response. Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025? @@ -1372,59 +1651,29 @@ In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts. This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/). ",379,3 -"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund). -GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud. -Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter. -Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024? -",131,3 -"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) -The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) -This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States? -For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals: ---- -Donald Trump ---- -Donald Trump Jr. ---- -Eric Trump ---- -Ivanka Trump ---- -Tiffany Trump ---- -Melania Trump ---- -Barron Trump -",552,3 -"Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context -======= - -Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. -As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021. -Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. -Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/) -",70,3 -"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. -However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: -When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? -Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -",332,3 -"World Population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. -Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. -Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? -We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) -Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. -",311,3 +"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. +[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2? +This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. +If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. +If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +*As judged by a metaculus admin. +",59,3 "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. ",67,3 +"World Population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. +Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. +Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? +We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) +Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. +",312,3 "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. According to its website: MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision. @@ -1437,25 +1686,6 @@ Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadl If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply. ",61,3 -"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/","Metaculus","[]","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). -When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? -This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). -",31,3 -"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128) -Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021. -How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people? -Resolution: ----Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) ----If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) ----If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. -Other possible world: ----[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) -See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). -",230,3 -"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). -Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? -The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. -",121,3 "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Background ========== @@ -1469,7 +1699,23 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. -",230,3 +",235,3 +"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). +Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? +The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. +",121,3 +"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. +Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? +This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. +",150,3 +"Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices. +The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis. +Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022. +Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election? +This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise. +If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous. +The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held. +",14,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. @@ -1502,13 +1748,6 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. ",249,3 -"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. -The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. -[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. -This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? -This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. -This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. -",321,3 "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/). If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. @@ -1527,14 +1766,13 @@ For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accura By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI? Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) ",130,3 -"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","[]","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. -However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. -Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. -Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible. -When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? -This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. -For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. -",41,3 +"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): +Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. +If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. +Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? +If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. +If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. +",245,3 "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017. How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030? This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used. @@ -1551,27 +1789,14 @@ Resolution will be by credible media reports. Old resolution criteria: This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency. ",188,3 -"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): -Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. -If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. -Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? -If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. -If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. -",245,3 -"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". -In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. -In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. -What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? -This question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025. -If there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. -",53,3 -"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. -U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. -U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. -The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. -Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? -The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). -",142,3 +"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. +The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +",64,3 "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd). @@ -1588,11 +1813,6 @@ If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December Related question ---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) ",116,3 -"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). -On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). -When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? -This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -",120,3 "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). @@ -1603,13 +1823,218 @@ What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to U This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",79,3 +",87,3 +"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. +What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? +The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. +You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +",112,3 +"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. +Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? +This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +",89,3 +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022. +In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +",69,3 +"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[]","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] +[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. +In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark. +When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. +Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +",192,3 +"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. +However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). +The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. +Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? +What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? +This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). +in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. +Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). +",45,3 +"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. +When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? +This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. +This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. +Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). +If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. +",191,3 +"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). +The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. +What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? +---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). +",167,3 +"When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. +At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) +This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? +The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. +Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question. +",313,3 +"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. +Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. +The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. +Australia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically. +The number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. +""Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether."" +Low prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers. +LUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/). +""The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040."" +In this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. +Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? +This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. +This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. +",26,3 +"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund). +GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud. +Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter. +Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024? +",131,3 +"Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context +======= + +Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. +As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021. +Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. +Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/) +",70,3 +"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[]","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. +[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. +How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? +This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. +",58,3 +"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). +Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? +This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. +",60,3 +"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128) +Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021. +How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people? +Resolution: +---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) +---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) +---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. +Other possible world: +---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) +See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). +",230,3 +"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/","Metaculus","[]","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). +When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? +This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). +",31,3 +"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. +Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). +Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? +This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: +---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. +---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. +---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. +This question resolves negatively otherwise. +",124,3 +"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. +A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv). +Data sources and more information: +---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website +---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) +---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) +---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) +---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) +---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) +---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) +---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) +---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) +What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? +We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. +This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). +",78,3 +"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. +The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. +[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. +This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? +This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. +This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. +",321,3 +"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). +Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +",172,3 +"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","[]","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. +However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. +Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. +Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible. +When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? +This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. +For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. +",41,3 +"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". +According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. +Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). +Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? +This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. +Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". +",86,3 +"What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. +What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? +This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. +",18,3 +"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. +U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. +U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. +The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. +Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? +The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). +",144,3 "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/","Metaculus","[]","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. ",66,3 +"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. +The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. +This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: +---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. +---There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. +---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. +The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. +The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. +",82,3 +"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. +JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: +--- +John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865. +--- +Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. +--- +Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901. +And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. +It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President? +",281,3 +"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. +[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. +And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. +Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask: +By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? +Resolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes: +--- +This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5). +--- +Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". +",83,3 "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -1626,224 +2051,18 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. ",29,3 -"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. -What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? -The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. -You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",103,3 -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022. -In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -",69,3 "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. ",149,3 -"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[]","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] -[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. -In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark. -When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. -Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -",192,3 "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. Will the GWB be detected by 2075? Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. ",12,3 -"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. -A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague. -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): -Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) -With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right. -Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask: -Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: ---- -Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) ---- -Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) ---- -Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) -(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) ---- -Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) ---- -Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) ---- -Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) ---- -Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) -",22,3 -"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). -The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. -What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ----The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). -",167,3 -"When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. -At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) -This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? -The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. -Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question. -",313,3 -"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","[]","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). -This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. -The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server. -Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans? -When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match? ----The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span. ----The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. ----Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. ----If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. -If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs. -*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) -",152,3 -"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[]","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. -[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. -How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? -This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. -",58,3 -"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). -Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? -This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. -",60,3 -"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] -In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. -As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). -How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? -Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. -A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) -",58,3 -"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. -Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). -Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? -This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: ----There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. ----There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. ----There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. -This question resolves negatively otherwise. -",119,3 -"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. -A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv). -Data sources and more information: ----The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website ----[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) ----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) ----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) ----[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) ----[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) ----[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) ----[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) ----[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) -What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? -We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. -This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). -",72,3 -"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. -[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? -This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. -",58,3 -"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/","Metaculus","[]","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. -The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. -What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? -We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit. -Related questions: ----[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) ----[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) ----[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) -",36,3 -"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). -Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. -",172,3 -"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). -With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. -The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ -When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? -Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. -",223,3 -"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". -According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. -Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). -Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? -This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. -Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". -",86,3 -"What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. -What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? -This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. -",18,3 -"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. -This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. -'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. -'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. -If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. -",30,3 -"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. -JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: ---- -John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865. ---- -Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. ---- -Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901. -And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. -It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President? -",281,3 -"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. -The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. -This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: ----The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. ----There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. ----A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. -The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. -The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. -",82,3 -"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. -[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. -And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. -Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask: -By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? -Resolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes: ---- -This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5). ---- -Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". -",83,3 -"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. -While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. -Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected. -How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD? -If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/). -Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices): ----2016: $890 ----2017: $823 ----2018: $617 ----2019: $592 -",228,3 -"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","[]","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. -On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". -When will the US-EU border reopen? -Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. -Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. -",17,3 "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/","Metaculus","[]","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. Dates of note @@ -1865,14 +2084,6 @@ No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two wee Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. ",68,3 -"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. -The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. -The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". -Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? -This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. -In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. -If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",156,3 "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: @@ -1883,6 +2094,18 @@ The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. ",120,3 +"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","[]","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). +This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. +The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server. +Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans? +When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match? +---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span. +---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. +---Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. +---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. +If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs. +*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) +",152,3 "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. “Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics. @@ -1899,27 +2122,17 @@ Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines --- Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19 ",244,3 -"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): -The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. -The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. -By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): -A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. -A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. -Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? -This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. -Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -",90,3 "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. -",113,3 -"Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ----[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) -Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no. -Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? -This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively. -",37,3 +",114,3 +"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] +In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. +As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). +How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? +Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. +A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) +",59,3 "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/","Metaculus","[]","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants. There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. Data sources and more information: @@ -1933,33 +2146,28 @@ Data sources and more information: ---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April? This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday). -",76,3 -"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): -on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. -Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? -This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. -",68,3 +",78,3 +"Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: +---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) +Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no. +Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? +This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively. +",37,3 +"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. +[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? +This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. +",58,3 "When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). When will GTA VI be released? This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. ",57,3 -"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. -Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? -This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ----Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ----Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). -",171,3 -"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. -Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? -After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? -(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.) -1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. -2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. -3--All prices are in USD. -4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. -",180,3 "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. Will Hanson win the bet? @@ -1984,13 +2192,22 @@ If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question" --- If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). ",145,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? +"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal). As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) -",348,3 +",431,3 +"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/","Metaculus","[]","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. +The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. +What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? +We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit. +Related questions: +---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) +---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) +---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) +",36,3 "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). @@ -2000,23 +2217,29 @@ This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or re If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. ",55,3 -"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. -Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) -As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) -This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? -This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. -",76,3 -"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/","Metaculus","[]","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. -In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. -What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? -The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement. -",516,3 -"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). -There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0). -Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? -Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. -Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. -",279,3 +"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). +With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. +The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ +When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? +Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. +",223,3 +"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. +This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. +'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. +'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. +If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. +",30,3 +"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. +While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. +Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected. +How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD? +If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/). +Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices): +---2016: $890 +---2017: $823 +---2018: $617 +---2019: $592 +",228,3 "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -2033,6 +2256,14 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. ",45,3 +"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. +The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. +The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". +Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? +This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. +In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. +If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. +",157,3 "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/","Metaculus","[]","Context ------- @@ -2049,35 +2280,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed. ",22,3 -"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/","Metaculus","[]","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated. -Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists. -If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States. -This question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045? -Related questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324) -[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/) -Resolution Criteria: -This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section. -If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada. -Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary. -",33,3 -"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. -It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. -Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? -Resolution details: ---- -Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. ---- -Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. ---- -Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. ---- -Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. ---- -In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). ---- -If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. -Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -",519,3 "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). Between 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). In Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0). @@ -2094,13 +2296,6 @@ If party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as b -- Only state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. ",19,3 -"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. -If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? -This question resolves: ----Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. ----Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ----Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. -",229,3 "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. @@ -2127,20 +2322,23 @@ Of these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincar At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? The question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints). -",26,3 -"Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). -In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html). -A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html). -The Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy ""would not be surprised"" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years. -Racing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). -[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have ""minimal impact"", whipping has been a ""vital tool of the sport since its inception"" and whipping allows for a horse to be ""fully tested"". -Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race? -Will the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup? -A rule that allows for the use of the whip only ""in the case of an emergency"" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. -This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. -If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. -Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. -",23,3 +",28,3 +"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): +The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. +The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. +By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): +A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. +A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. +Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? +This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. +Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +",90,3 +"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): +on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. +Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? +This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. +",68,3 "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). @@ -2148,39 +2346,18 @@ What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale Resolution This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. ",123,3 -"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. -Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. -However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. -When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. -Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. -",204,3 "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008). Currently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources. What will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars? For the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion. ",132,3 -"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. -What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? -This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. -Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -",75,3 -"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. -The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. -The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) -Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? -This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. -It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. -",33,3 -"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring): -Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. -As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. -When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? -This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. -If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"". -In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins. -",31,3 +"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. +Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? +This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: +---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). +---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). +",171,3 "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. @@ -2189,6 +2366,14 @@ Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be wort Resolution This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service. ",87,3 +"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring): +Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. +As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. +When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? +This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. +If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"". +In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins. +",31,3 "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. [PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. [Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. @@ -2224,12 +2409,21 @@ The AI cannot have access to the internet during the test. If the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so. If the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. ",17,3 -"Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. -The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."" -The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021."" -Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? -The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. -",22,3 +"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. +Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? +After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? +(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.) +1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. +2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. +3--All prices are in USD. +4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. +",184,3 +"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. +Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) +As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) +This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? +This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. +",76,3 "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. @@ -2241,14 +2435,12 @@ In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the fir Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise. ",44,3 -"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. -[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). -What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? -This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",51,3 +"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). +There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0). +Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? +Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. +Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. +",280,3 "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? @@ -2265,47 +2457,64 @@ In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city. ",25,3 -"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. -In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. -",75,3 -"When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","[]","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. -When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? -To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. -This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced. -If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead. -If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced. -This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. -Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. -",101,3 -"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. -The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. -Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? -This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). -",38,3 -"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. -O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). -For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): -General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) -The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6. -How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? -This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* -For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). -If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. -",62,3 +"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/","Metaculus","[]","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated. +Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists. +If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States. +This question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045? +Related questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324) +[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/) +Resolution Criteria: +This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section. +If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada. +Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary. +",33,3 +"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. +It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. +Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? +Resolution details: +--- +Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. +--- +Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. +--- +Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. +--- +Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. +--- +In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). +--- +If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. +Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. +",519,3 +"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. +If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? +This question resolves: +---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. +---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. +---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. +",229,3 +"Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). +In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html). +A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html). +The Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy ""would not be surprised"" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years. +Racing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). +[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have ""minimal impact"", whipping has been a ""vital tool of the sport since its inception"" and whipping allows for a horse to be ""fully tested"". +Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race? +Will the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup? +A rule that allows for the use of the whip only ""in the case of an emergency"" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. +This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. +If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. +Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. +",23,3 "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. ",175,3 -"Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2008 financial crisis was [""considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008). -According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%). -Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? -Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. -This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/). -",775,3 +"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. +What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? +This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. +Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. +",77,3 "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin. We can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin. How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? @@ -2313,7 +2522,13 @@ How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? The [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs. --- To qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus). -",25,3 +",26,3 +"Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2008 financial crisis was [""considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008). +According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%). +Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? +Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. +This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/). +",775,3 "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? @@ -2321,6 +2536,13 @@ This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). ",51,3 +"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. +The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. +The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) +Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? +This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. +It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. +",33,3 "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? Resolution details: @@ -2340,39 +2562,12 @@ How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/) ",52,3 -"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -According to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. -If labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. -Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster. -How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US. -",18,3 -"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/","Metaculus","[]","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): -Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. -Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. -As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. -Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. -What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? -There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. -If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. -If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. -",41,3 -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. -There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ----[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ----Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" -While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) -The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). -Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? -This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. -Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -",90,3 +"Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. +The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."" +The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021."" +Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? +The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. +",22,3 "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -2392,6 +2587,12 @@ Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. ",869,3 +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +",66,3 "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus","[]","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. @@ -2399,40 +2600,12 @@ Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transport By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. ",24,3 -"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/","Metaculus","[]","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. -Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. -This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? -The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. -",21,3 -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -",66,3 "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911. Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment) What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval. ",24,3 -"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. -O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). -For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): -General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) -The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6. -How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? -This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation* -For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). -If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. -",57,3 -"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. -Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? ---- -Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. ---- -The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. -",14,3 "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/). A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. @@ -2458,7 +2631,16 @@ This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [th Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify. In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",120,3 +",127,3 +"When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","[]","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. +When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? +To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. +This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced. +If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead. +If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced. +This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. +Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. +",101,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? Index @@ -2477,31 +2659,40 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. -",65,3 +",67,3 "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -",204,3 -"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. -Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? -This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: ----Donald Trump ----Melania Trump ----Donald Trump Jr. ----Ivanka Trump ----Eric Trump ----Tiffany Trump ----Barron Trump ----Jared Kushner -",82,3 +",208,3 +"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. +O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). +For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): +General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) +The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6. +How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? +This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* +For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). +If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. +",62,3 "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html). What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html). If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) -",171,3 +",172,3 +"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","[]","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. +After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). +What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? +This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. +",34,3 +"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. +The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). +Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? +This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. +This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. +",22,3 "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -2518,22 +2709,20 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March -",69,3 -"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","[]","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. -After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). -What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? -This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",34,3 -"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. -The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). -Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? -This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. -This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. -",22,3 -"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. -What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? -The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. -",216,3 +",73,3 +"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +According to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. +If labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. +Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster. +How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US. +",18,3 "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [""The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.""](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest. Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance. Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause? @@ -2547,14 +2736,18 @@ Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall ---OpenAI ---Tesla For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.) -",58,3 +",59,3 "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -",84,3 +",96,3 +"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. +What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? +The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. +",219,3 "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -2571,13 +2764,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",82,3 -"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) -Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) -On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned. -How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads? -Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later. -",192,3 +",87,3 "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: @@ -2600,6 +2787,26 @@ When (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? This will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.) If data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. ",60,3 +"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) +Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) +On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned. +How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads? +Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later. +",192,3 +"What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +The role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. +In 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. +As solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. +Predictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt. +What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). +",38,3 "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists. Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started. Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year? @@ -2620,20 +2827,6 @@ This question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November. November is defined according to UTC ",181,3 -"What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -The role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. -In 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. -As solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. -Predictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt. -What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). -",38,3 "Will AI progress surprise us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events @@ -2647,6 +2840,13 @@ Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39 When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution. ",74,3 +"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. +Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. +The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? +---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. +---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. +---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. +",97,3 "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf). @@ -2662,13 +2862,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ---181 for the calendar year 2020 ",53,3 -"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. -Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. -The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? ----This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. ----It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. ----In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. -",97,3 "When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[]","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. @@ -2691,15 +2884,6 @@ Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming l This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. ",96,3 -"Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. -Mathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan). -Bipartisan support within Australia is likely needed for Cormann to have a chance. The Coalition torpedoed former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's bid to become UN Secretary-General, but the Labor Party [has said they will support Cormann's bid](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s). -[Australia has provided Cormann with flights on an Air Force plane to help his bid.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/pm-defends-raaf-jet-for-cormann/12917878) -Will Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD? -Question resolves positive on an official statement by the OECD that Mathias Cormann is appointed the next Secretary-General. -If the term of the current Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría Treviño is shortened or extended for any reason, this will resolve positive if Mathias Cormann is the next elected Secretary-General of the OECD. -If for some reason Gurría does not complete his term, selection of an acting Secretary-General will not result in this question resolving negative. -",105,3 "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) @@ -2711,18 +2895,18 @@ Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. ",237,3 -"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","[]","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. -Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. -This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? -The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. -",122,3 "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/","Metaculus","[]","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. [According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. -",186,3 +",187,3 +"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","[]","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. +Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. +This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? +The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. +",122,3 "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -2731,7 +2915,7 @@ This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",133,3 +",141,3 "When will One Piece end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/","Metaculus","[]","It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.). So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). @@ -2777,7 +2961,7 @@ Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment. Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product. -",45,3 +",49,3 "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. ",216,3 @@ -2795,7 +2979,7 @@ Related questions: What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. -",79,3 +",86,3 "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html): Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck. So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? @@ -2824,7 +3008,7 @@ This question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergenc In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive. If an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question. This resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. -",37,3 +",38,3 "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70. @@ -2902,7 +3086,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",53,3 +",54,3 "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? @@ -2915,7 +3099,7 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",65,3 +",68,3 "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. @@ -2925,7 +3109,7 @@ Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021? If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met. If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement. Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian. -",62,3 +",65,3 "How large will Monaco be in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png) @@ -3007,7 +3191,7 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",47,3 +",50,3 "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2. @@ -3028,15 +3212,6 @@ In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-do Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050. ",63,3 -"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",71,3 "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm) Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. @@ -3054,16 +3229,25 @@ This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1 Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE) Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. -",72,3 -"Kessler syndrome by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. -We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. -It is asked: -By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? -",433,3 +",73,3 +"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +",71,3 "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US. When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). ",99,3 +"Kessler syndrome by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. +We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. +It is asked: +By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? +",434,3 "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -3101,7 +3285,7 @@ Carbon Neutrality Definition: This question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal. If a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met. If a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. -",25,3 +",26,3 "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party. Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold). Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? @@ -3109,7 +3293,7 @@ Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well. --- If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question. -",38,3 +",40,3 "When will Russia become a democracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/","Metaculus","[]","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index. When will Russia become a democracy? This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report. @@ -3169,15 +3353,6 @@ Because of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? If clarification is needed of what counts as ""human"", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). ""Off of planet Earth"" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records. ",487,3 -"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. -However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). -The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. -Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon? -What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14? -This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. -As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. -",118,3 "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. [Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click): @@ -3188,6 +3363,15 @@ The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies no Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall. ",153,3 +"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. +However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). +The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. +Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon? +What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14? +This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. +As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. +",124,3 "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) Will this goal be realized? The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. @@ -3220,7 +3404,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",123,3 +",126,3 "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/","Metaculus","[]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -3229,6 +3413,14 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ",75,3 +"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. +Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? +The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm). +Related Questions +---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) +---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) +If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. +",219,3 "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. @@ -3238,15 +3430,7 @@ Data sources and more information: ---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. -",106,3 -"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. -Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? -The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm). -Related Questions ----[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ----[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) -If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. -",219,3 +",110,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off. Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. @@ -3285,7 +3469,7 @@ B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [sig In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing. What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)? This question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021. -",66,3 +",68,3 "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. @@ -3333,6 +3517,18 @@ Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.sli What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s? This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit. ",75,3 +"Will online poker die by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) +Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. +In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) +In 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says) +“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note. +According to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours. +Will online poker die by 2030? +This question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. +This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites. +If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. +The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. +",95,3 "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. But life could take many forms: ---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). @@ -3354,18 +3550,6 @@ Resolution details: * My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example. Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). ",143,3 -"Will online poker die by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) -Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. -In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) -In 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says) -“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note. -According to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours. -Will online poker die by 2030? -This question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. -This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites. -If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. -The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. -",94,3 "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","[]","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) @@ -3429,21 +3613,13 @@ Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 202 ---It must happen before 2022. ---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). ---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. -",346,3 +",347,3 "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/","Metaculus","[]","This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)). Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices. When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service. ",127,3 -"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",43,3 "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/","Metaculus","[]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. @@ -3463,6 +3639,14 @@ By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for exa Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. (Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.) ",150,3 +"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +",44,3 "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[]","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? @@ -3518,7 +3702,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data? This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",103,3 +",108,3 "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate. For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html) The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... "" @@ -3569,7 +3753,7 @@ Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge? ---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). ---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. ",329,3 -"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. +"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. @@ -3581,7 +3765,7 @@ This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States C ---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. ---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. ---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. -",254,3 +",257,3 "When will there be at least one billion Americans?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/","Metaculus","[]","[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities. As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/) @@ -3623,14 +3807,14 @@ Examples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive r The specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution. If the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as ""> Oct 2, 2035"". ",83,3 -"Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? +"Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves ""Yes"" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves ""No"" otherwise. If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. -",684,3 +",688,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6676/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). @@ -3703,7 +3887,7 @@ How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction. Growth will be calculated as where is ""Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year "" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report). Both figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead. -",50,3 +",54,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index @@ -3723,7 +3907,7 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. -",109,3 +",116,3 "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. [A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter) The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. @@ -3759,8 +3943,8 @@ This question resolves as the position ranking of Donald Trump in the next C-Spa "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",46,3 -"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. +",47,3 +"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. Recently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans. It is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? This questions resolves positive if: @@ -3774,7 +3958,7 @@ The resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at Here is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question. -",310,3 +",313,3 "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015. The Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species. The Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)] @@ -3793,6 +3977,25 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur: ---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. ---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). ",20,3 +"For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/","Metaculus","[]","Context +======= + +[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. +It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. +The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. +You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls) +Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives. +With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates. +Similar Questions: +[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/) +[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/) +For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released. +",60,3 "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/","Metaculus","[]","With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. As such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken? When will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold? @@ -3824,25 +4027,6 @@ Related Questions ---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). ",31,3 -"For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/","Metaculus","[]","Context -======= - -[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. -It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. -The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. -You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls) -Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives. -With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates. -Similar Questions: -[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/) -[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/) -For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released. -",60,3 "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/","Metaculus","[]","A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA): An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. A falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k. @@ -3850,7 +4034,7 @@ Initial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous wee When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand? This prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) The resolution uses the ""observation date,"" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. -",25,3 +",26,3 "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -3889,7 +4073,7 @@ The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly d I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar. By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect? This question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality. -",21,3 +",23,3 "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year. [Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C. @@ -3987,13 +4171,13 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",113,3 +",118,3 "A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. 23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. -",674,3 +",675,3 "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... @@ -4004,7 +4188,7 @@ The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as t Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -",428,3 +",429,3 "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data. @@ -4120,7 +4304,7 @@ Data sources and more information: ---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). -",48,3 +",54,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? @@ -4140,7 +4324,7 @@ A benchmark will be removed from the index if: If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. -",95,3 +",99,3 "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/","Metaculus","[]","Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence. In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question. Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks: @@ -4171,15 +4355,6 @@ This question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of t Note that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.) Resolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution. ",219,3 -"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. -When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? -This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve -A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -",86,3 "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[]","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. [There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). @@ -4232,8 +4407,8 @@ This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the Decemb ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. -",54,3 -"Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +",59,3 +"Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass. @@ -4241,7 +4416,7 @@ Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 pe This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. -",36,3 +",41,3 "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/","Metaculus","[]","The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers. The user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then. This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja? @@ -4297,7 +4472,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",54,3 +",56,3 "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology: @@ -4317,11 +4492,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",59,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",41,3 +",62,3 "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as ""a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,"" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured ""if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity""; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? --- @@ -4335,7 +4506,7 @@ Resolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030? A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost. Due to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith. -",534,3 +",535,3 "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context ======= @@ -4425,12 +4596,6 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ",321,3 -"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control."" -[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival. -Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence? -The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus. -Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. -",31,3 "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible. Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available. [Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated ""as early as April"": @@ -4443,11 +4608,17 @@ When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United Stat This question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide. Similar language to widely available, such as ""generally available"" or ""available for all who want it"", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question. To be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. -",430,3 +",432,3 +"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control."" +[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival. +Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence? +The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus. +Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. +",31,3 "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. -",286,3 +",287,3 "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130. @@ -4463,21 +4634,14 @@ A plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in som For singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. For larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a ""plant-based meat"" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words ""plant-based meat"" or any variations where ""meat"" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. ""plant-based beef"" or ""plant-based burger""), and/or variations where ""plant"" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. ""pea-based meat"" or ""soy-protein based chicken""). ",132,3 -"What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -In 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. -The onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. -However, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that: -“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.” -What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? -Predictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes. - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview). -",22,3 +"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. +Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws. +However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described. +Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013) +Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? +This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. +This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. +",38,3 "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -4492,15 +4656,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---80 for the calendar year 2017 ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 -",117,3 -"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. -Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws. -However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described. -Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013) -Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? -This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. -This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. -",38,3 +",132,3 "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -4649,6 +4805,18 @@ EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in s How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US. ",132,3 +"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). +[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. +Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. +[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. +On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. +70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 +However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. +When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. +While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. +",677,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -4663,19 +4831,7 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14 --- positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values. -",132,3 -"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). -[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. -Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. -[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. -On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. -70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 -However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. -When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. -While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -",674,3 +",136,3 "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/","Metaculus","[]","[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter. But will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654). What will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? @@ -4683,12 +4839,12 @@ We will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a Resolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source. Inspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars. ",103,3 -"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. +"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. -",123,3 +",125,3 "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon. Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026? This will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. @@ -4716,7 +4872,7 @@ This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic The BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution. ""1st line"", and ""Plus"" count as a recommendation. ""Consider"" does not. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",168,3 +",169,3 "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years. Yet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called ""third-party candidates"" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%. What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? @@ -4838,6 +4994,12 @@ This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 203 If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). ",14,3 +"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) +According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. +Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? +Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? +The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. +",418,3 "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. @@ -4849,19 +5011,13 @@ When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? ---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. ---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. ",96,3 -"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) -According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. -Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? -Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? -The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. -",418,3 "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)). A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests). As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation. Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously. -",203,3 +",204,3 "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data). On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/). This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date): @@ -4870,7 +5026,7 @@ import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(""https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/cov "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[]","According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6. What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously. -",181,3 +",182,3 "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -4887,7 +5043,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April -",52,3 +",53,3 "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/","Metaculus","[]","When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the ""New world"" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII. It may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth. When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? @@ -4918,7 +5074,7 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans. Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections? This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican. -",347,3 +",354,3 "When will the UK hold its next general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[]","--- The UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election. --- @@ -4937,7 +5093,7 @@ Historically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs we Governments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010. When will the UK hold its next general election? This question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself. -",51,3 +",52,3 "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/), The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. @@ -5001,11 +5157,11 @@ In previous years, the total amounts granted were: How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021? This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed. ---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. -",57,3 +",60,3 "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/","Metaculus","[]","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx). What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous. -",42,3 +",46,3 "If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -5036,7 +5192,7 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",27,3 +",28,3 "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/). Robert D Atkinson argued, U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the ""low hanging fruit has been picked."" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the ""s-curve"" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor) @@ -5091,14 +5247,14 @@ Presence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied The question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale. If the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049. ",204,3 -"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. +"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. This question will resolve positively if: ---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. This question will resolve ambiguously if: ---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. -",570,3 +",571,3 "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/","Metaculus","[]","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/). The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what longitude will it start in? @@ -5149,7 +5305,7 @@ For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts t When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.” -",220,3 +",221,3 "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. @@ -5168,12 +5324,12 @@ It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will Can we get there before the 2030s? Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise. ",460,3 -"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program. +"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program. Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March? This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively. 5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution. -",118,3 +",122,3 "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? @@ -5284,11 +5440,11 @@ Data sources and more information: What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. 8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to ""fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new ""fully vaccinated"" figure reported by the CDC. -",68,3 -"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. +",85,3 +"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021? Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021. -",65,3 +",69,3 "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people. @@ -5314,7 +5470,7 @@ Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050? 2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. FIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA. If any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count. -",27,3 +",28,3 "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election). The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.) Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? @@ -5331,7 +5487,7 @@ The United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchands Americans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups. When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? This question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -",101,3 +",124,3 "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/). According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.). What will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? @@ -5379,7 +5535,7 @@ And: The CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/) The role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",103,3 +",104,3 "When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -5433,7 +5589,7 @@ The following examples do count as positive resolutions: Evidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (""would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?""), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service --- An outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. -",37,3 +",38,3 "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict: ---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. vs. @@ -5517,6 +5673,14 @@ Two countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton y These conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be. As with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway. ",170,3 +"When will the first cloned human be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/","Metaculus","[]","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. +The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: +[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action. +They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle... +(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."") +On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. +When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal. +",159,3 "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -5534,15 +5698,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",60,3 -"When will the first cloned human be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/","Metaculus","[]","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. -The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: -[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action. -They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle... -(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."") -On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. -When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal. -",159,3 +",64,3 "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking. Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world? It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time? @@ -5765,7 +5921,7 @@ This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident). Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021. -",70,3 +",72,3 "When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/","Metaculus","[]","Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. The option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020. Uber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch. @@ -5795,12 +5951,7 @@ If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will repl If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. -",122,3 -"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.” -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). -Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? -This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources. -",45,3 +",137,3 "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/","Metaculus","[]","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. @@ -5879,13 +6030,13 @@ Edited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather th Edited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021. Edited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/). ",1782,3 -"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). +"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice. Before Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. -",251,3 +",254,3 "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [""A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology"".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html) The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity. An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals. @@ -6015,7 +6166,7 @@ The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. -",101,3 +",102,3 "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to ""never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices."" Notably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document. Several treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France. @@ -6149,6 +6300,23 @@ The AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human. The question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors. If the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit. ",149,3 +"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. +Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). +Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf). +How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period? +Resolution +This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". +Details of the search query +For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"": +""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization"" +The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). +Running this query for previous years gives: +---779 for the calendar year 2017 +---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 +---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 +---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 +",88,3 "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. @@ -6169,23 +6337,6 @@ In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results. In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously. ",621,3 -"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. -Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). -Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf). -How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period? -Resolution -This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". -Details of the search query -For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"": -""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization"" -The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -Running this query for previous years gives: ----779 for the calendar year 2017 ----1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ----2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ----3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",82,3 "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four. One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities. At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of ""Top Charity"" and a type of work of ""Reducing Wild Animal Suffering""? @@ -6257,7 +6408,7 @@ In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. -",34,3 +",36,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. @@ -6274,7 +6425,7 @@ Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). -",578,3 +",579,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. @@ -6307,7 +6458,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",66,3 +",68,3 "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb). However, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761). There is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/). @@ -6407,7 +6558,7 @@ A military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 2-- At least 10 million people are killed in the conflict. (Edit 1/16/19 to remove third ""described as WWIII"" criterion.) -",576,3 +",578,3 "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -6425,7 +6576,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",61,3 +",62,3 "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP, a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission. The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission: @@ -6468,7 +6619,7 @@ See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/ques Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. -",76,3 +",77,3 "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/","Metaculus","[]","Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars. South Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK ""wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank"". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions. @@ -6503,7 +6654,7 @@ In November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more Based on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4. When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19? This question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023. -",83,3 +",85,3 "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation). His preservation was rather primitive and late: Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […]. @@ -6521,7 +6672,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",60,3 +",62,3 "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina. A little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. In terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only. @@ -6535,18 +6686,6 @@ But while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant ma When will the world have reached peak Facebook? For the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously. ",78,3 -"How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -In 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. -With the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question. -How much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security. -",34,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? @@ -6566,7 +6705,19 @@ A benchmark will be removed from the index if: If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. -",79,3 +",80,3 +"How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +In 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. +With the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question. +How much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security. +",34,3 "Will humans go extinct by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? @@ -6602,7 +6753,7 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019. What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? Flightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects. -",151,3 +",153,3 "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/","Metaculus","[]","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time. In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""? @@ -6670,7 +6821,7 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",103,3 +",118,3 "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -6877,13 +7028,6 @@ Resolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai? Resolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion. ",58,3 -"Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world. -[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom. -In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement. -Countries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’. -How many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House? -This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued. -",190,3 "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"". As of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below ""Top Charity"". Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022? @@ -6891,11 +7035,18 @@ By ""primarily operating in China"" we mean that at least half of their efforts The question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. ",83,3 +"Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world. +[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom. +In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement. +Countries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’. +How many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House? +This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued. +",190,3 "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)): George Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? This question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution. -",33,3 +",40,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. @@ -6998,7 +7149,7 @@ Resolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that t However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time. -",85,3 +",87,3 "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter. In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: @@ -7012,7 +7163,7 @@ Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered. -",227,3 +",235,3 "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/","Metaculus","[]","The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space. SENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. As a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information. @@ -7077,16 +7228,6 @@ This question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in mac 11-Another place in the Solar System. Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered. ",83,3 -"Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols. -Recently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783). -Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? -The question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard ""extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt. -The question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive. -Similar questions: ----[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) ----[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) ----[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) -",219,3 "How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Every year The Economist publishes the ""Democracy Index,"" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered ""Full democracies."" The 4 categories are: --- @@ -7100,6 +7241,16 @@ Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?* This prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as ""Full democracies"" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). ",38,3 +"Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols. +Recently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783). +Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? +The question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard ""extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt. +The question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive. +Similar questions: +---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) +---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) +---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) +",219,3 "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/","Metaculus","[]","From Wikipedia, A capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...] In the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate. @@ -7282,26 +7433,6 @@ Bitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypt What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? This question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change. ",25,3 -"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. -This question asks: -Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? -This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively. -If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old. -2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper. -",497,3 -"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","[]","Context -======= - -Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. -You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). -The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. -What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. -",26,3 "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud. More details can be found here: @@ -7318,6 +7449,13 @@ This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custod The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard. Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment ",40,3 +"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. +This question asks: +Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? +This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively. +If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old. +2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper. +",499,3 "Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained). In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions. Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts: @@ -7344,6 +7482,21 @@ If GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditio --- Some of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author. ",65,3 +"Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world. +The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU). +This question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010? +Specifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010? +The question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832). +The question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census. +If for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously. +",60,3 +"Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. +Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. +Internationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.) +These efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask: +By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? +Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source. +",153,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -7360,22 +7513,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 -",83,3 -"Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world. -The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU). -This question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010? -Specifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010? -The question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832). -The question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census. -If for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously. -",60,3 -"Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. -Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. -Internationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.) -These efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask: -By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? -Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source. -",153,3 +",94,3 "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/). Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants). Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time? @@ -7430,7 +7568,7 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k. -",20,3 +",21,3 "Will a recession cause ""suicides by the thousands""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [""suicides by the thousands.""](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right! [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that. If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336? @@ -7867,7 +8005,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",84,3 +",90,3 "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/","Metaculus","[]","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. [The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. @@ -7940,7 +8078,7 @@ How many new cases of COVID-19 in: ---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) ---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) -",870,3 +",880,3 "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3434/philpapers-survey-mini-series-support-for-open-borders/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey. According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK). @@ -7955,7 +8093,7 @@ Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/19 [DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps. When will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00? This question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal. -",146,3 +",147,3 "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1): Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud. The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government. @@ -7968,7 +8106,7 @@ Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? ---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. ---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. ---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. -",77,3 +",80,3 "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","[]","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) @@ -7986,7 +8124,7 @@ Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued tha What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted. As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. -",44,3 +",45,3 "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/) Psilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from. Despite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative. @@ -8107,11 +8245,6 @@ Question and Resolution Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030? ",39,3 -"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. -[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. -This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? -This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question. -",253,3 "Who will first land a person on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/","Metaculus","[]","This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be: 1-- The US government @@ -8153,7 +8286,7 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",110,3 +",113,3 "Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5411/margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Margaret Ferrier, a British MP, has [attracted controversy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54383281) for travelling from Glasgow to London with Covid-19 symptoms, then returning home by train after testing positive in late September 2020. Her party [has removed the party whip and suspended her](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54386872), and made it clear that she should resign as MP. But she has not yet resigned, [claiming that](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54496759) the illness ""makes you act out of character"". Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021? @@ -8178,7 +8311,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",102,3 +",108,3 "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence, It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals. A world is said to have ""radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence"" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals. @@ -8521,15 +8654,7 @@ The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=& ---203 for the calendar year 2017 ---350 for the calendar year 2018 ---700 for the calendar year 2019 -",107,3 -"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. -International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. -Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). -Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. -What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? -For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. -(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) -",365,3 +",116,3 "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).) Will VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025? @@ -8659,11 +8784,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series. ",21,3 -"How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. -Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. -How many emoji related court cases in 2021? -Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. -",34,3 "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/","Metaculus","[]","If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats. Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. @@ -8677,7 +8797,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022- This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",70,3 +",79,3 "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey. According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK). @@ -8855,7 +8975,7 @@ For the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major U Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) -",175,3 +",177,3 "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -8871,7 +8991,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 ---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 ---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 -",88,3 +",93,3 "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market. It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)). This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023. @@ -8919,7 +9039,7 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, a For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",88,3 +",93,3 "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. A nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates). This question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030? @@ -8978,20 +9098,6 @@ Related questions: - [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/) - [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/) ",127,3 -"Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). -The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. ----[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) ----[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) ----[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) ----[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) -Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? -This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used: ----Income Measure: ""Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line"" ----Sample: ""All Individuals"" -The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively. -If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously. -November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for ""late 2021"". -",66,3 "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/","Metaculus","[]","[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include: ---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) ---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) @@ -9138,16 +9244,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously. ",44,3 -"What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",157,3 "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary. This question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation. ",167,3 @@ -9157,6 +9253,16 @@ When will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg Resolution This question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken ""ingredients"" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously. ",77,3 +"What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +",161,3 "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm. Carbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year. The milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target. @@ -9164,19 +9270,6 @@ The point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach Will earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050? For this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050. ",240,3 -"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","[]","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. -According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: -According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. -Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel. -When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed -Resolution -This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). -This question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040. -The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. -The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say: ----It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia ----The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island -",71,3 "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/","Metaculus","[]","The difference between tenure-track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) percentages reveals how many more higher education teachers are accepted into financially demanding roles at their institutions. This highlights the ability of American institutions to support tenured professors in the future and hints at the institutions' own predictions for financial stability. [AAUP](https://www.aaup.org/report/annual-report-economic-status-profession-2019-20) surveys on the academic labor force and the economic health of professors are reported through [The Annual Report of the Economic Status of the Profession](https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/2019-20_ARES.pdf). In the 2019-2020 school year, the percentage of TT teaching staff at private, religious, and public universities from both sexes, was 20.0% while NTT teaching staff represented 27% of the total academic workforce. The difference therefore as -7% between the two. This question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year? This question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series @@ -9196,7 +9289,7 @@ On 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and s This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. If Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges. If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -",56,3 +",58,3 "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity. But how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises. We can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online. @@ -9262,7 +9355,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data? This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",139,3 +",154,3 "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy) “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.” This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. @@ -9285,13 +9378,6 @@ Related questions ---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) ---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) ",30,3 -"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. -This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). -The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. -Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. -What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? -Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",37,3 "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin), an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world. Chauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added. @@ -9331,6 +9417,11 @@ In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on Jan The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 ",53,3 +"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. +Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. +Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? +This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press. +",82,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -9344,12 +9435,7 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14 --- positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14. -",121,3 -"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. -Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. -Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? -This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press. -",82,3 +",135,3 "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins. So how does one define that demarcation? Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself. @@ -9484,17 +9570,6 @@ This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of n In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. ",89,3 -"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","[]","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. -Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. -What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? -The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. -Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: -A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic -B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. -C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. -I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. -I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. -",212,3 "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/","Metaculus","[]","The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071). If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? @@ -9859,10 +9934,6 @@ Related questions: [When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/) [When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/) ",108,3 -"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. -Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? -This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. -",149,3 "The End of NAFTA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559). During his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign. We hence ask: @@ -9878,7 +9949,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",93,3 +",99,3 "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/","Metaculus","[]","The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019. Singapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies. Singapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/) @@ -10103,13 +10174,6 @@ Resolution details: ---Only humans in the observable universe count. ---""Humans"" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. ",143,3 -"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","[]","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), -By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. -To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] -Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” -When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? -This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. -",45,3 "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. Gabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. Given the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects. @@ -10410,14 +10474,6 @@ The currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [thei When will the world see the first cashless society? Resolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins. ",151,3 -"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. -Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. -As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. -How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? -This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. -The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. -If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. -",78,3 "Robocup Challenge","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a ""grand challenge"" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is: By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events. @@ -10637,6 +10693,18 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on race being biological. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys. The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults. ",80,3 +"Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. +22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: +Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. +37 countries came out with support: +Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia. +A great many more have remained neutral. +The question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022? +Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022? +Resolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support. +The author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define ""formal support"" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged. +As a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. +",87,3 "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). If the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively. ",25,3 @@ -10652,18 +10720,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ",52,3 -"Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. -22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: -Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. -37 countries came out with support: -Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia. -A great many more have remained neutral. -The question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022? -Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022? -Resolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support. -The author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define ""formal support"" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged. -As a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. -",85,3 "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/","Metaculus","[]","Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later. To find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person. @@ -10768,11 +10824,6 @@ When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050. ",323,3 -"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus","[]","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. -The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. -When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? -The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released. -",69,3 "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year. Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year? Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. @@ -10800,7 +10851,7 @@ The question is: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA? The date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars. -",145,3 +",146,3 "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. There is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country. This, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/). @@ -10856,7 +10907,7 @@ This question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies t This question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation. --- If any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously. -",59,3 +",60,3 "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? @@ -10904,7 +10955,7 @@ The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions] “The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.” What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets. -",228,3 +",229,3 "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared ""commercially extinct"", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection. Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency. Hope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish. @@ -11203,7 +11254,7 @@ Moreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the re Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution. -",135,3 +",137,3 "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/","Metaculus","[]","In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers: while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture. Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. @@ -11482,7 +11533,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 -",86,3 +",91,3 "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a ""phantom genre."" The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying. Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? @@ -11522,18 +11573,6 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products. Reports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources. ",84,3 -"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. -Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. -The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. -So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035? -Definitions of success: ---- -There is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois. ---- -This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff. ---- -At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more. -",90,3 "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/","Metaculus","[]","[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) [As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/) When will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time? @@ -11571,16 +11610,6 @@ In case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question al 3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. ",46,3 -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. -On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. -The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. -Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? -This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. -Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). ----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. -",62,3 "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios). Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions. How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? @@ -11626,7 +11655,7 @@ When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth fo ---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. ---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. ---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. -",155,3 +",158,3 "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030? The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. Resolution details: @@ -11739,17 +11768,6 @@ This question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile The admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution. The AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version. ",77,3 -"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[]","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php). -See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, -1-- -The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. -2-- -The U.S. Geological Survey. -3-- -The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. -4-- -A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. -",106,3 "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as ""Satoshi Nakamoto"", the maverick who developed bitcoin. Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator): ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. @@ -11830,21 +11848,6 @@ Similar questions: ---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) ---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) ",183,3 -"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. -The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that: -“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” -Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. -“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. ""I think this is going to be a trend,"" he says.” -How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. -",26,3 "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football. The decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge. In the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat. @@ -12106,12 +12109,6 @@ When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? This question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). This will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question. ",23,3 -"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","[]","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. -Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). -Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. -When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? -Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",36,3 "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country. Resolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion. ",223,3 @@ -12894,7 +12891,7 @@ As some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) ---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. ---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. -",242,3 +",246,3 "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/). @@ -12910,14 +12907,14 @@ We shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch wit The question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. Resolution shall be by credible media report. ",317,3 -"Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. +"Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation. For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". -",267,3 +",272,3 "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus","[]","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. @@ -13427,7 +13424,7 @@ The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -",186,3 +",187,3 "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July. This question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Resolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason. diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index f545ffb..ec686ee 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -1,11 +1,41 @@ [ + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -67,59 +97,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 319, + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 292, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" } }, { @@ -137,6 +152,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", @@ -178,13 +219,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 231, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z", @@ -193,6 +260,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 540, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", @@ -208,21 +301,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -230,17 +308,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -250,33 +328,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 232, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n", + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "numforecasts": 16, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -294,6 +409,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/", @@ -361,6 +491,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 213, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", @@ -378,7 +549,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 240, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", @@ -388,33 +559,122 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1087, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -423,7 +683,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", @@ -432,6 +692,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", @@ -459,18 +749,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 236, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -490,7 +780,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 286, + "numforecasts": 287, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -499,13 +789,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -514,6 +819,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 51, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", + "numforecasts": 366, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", @@ -530,18 +865,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -561,7 +911,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -571,29 +921,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -663,6 +1017,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 43, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", @@ -689,21 +1073,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -751,7 +1120,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", @@ -786,6 +1155,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/", @@ -812,6 +1196,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -839,18 +1238,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -859,7 +1269,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 156, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", @@ -868,6 +1278,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", @@ -898,21 +1338,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 236, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", @@ -930,7 +1355,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", @@ -954,13 +1379,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 379, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", @@ -970,18 +1410,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 356, + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 334, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1000,33 +1470,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1036,17 +1491,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 84, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -1096,21 +1551,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", @@ -1152,6 +1592,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z" } }, + { + "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", @@ -1167,13 +1622,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 509, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -1183,18 +1664,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 16, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1291,18 +1772,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" } }, { @@ -1311,7 +1792,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 214, + "numforecasts": 219, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -1376,6 +1857,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", @@ -1403,55 +1910,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1306, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1480,6 +1961,62 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 254, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 133, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -1506,21 +2043,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 132, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", @@ -1551,6 +2073,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", @@ -1566,21 +2103,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", @@ -1638,33 +2160,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 129, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1682,6 +2219,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", @@ -1689,17 +2256,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -1708,21 +2275,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", @@ -1790,6 +2342,51 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", @@ -1806,70 +2403,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" } }, { - "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/", + "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "options": [], + "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -1899,59 +2459,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", + "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 15, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1980,6 +2499,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", + "numforecasts": 127, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", @@ -1995,21 +2529,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "numforecasts": 126, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/", @@ -2052,18 +2571,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 210, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2122,32 +2641,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 534, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -2165,7 +2658,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n", - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", @@ -2175,59 +2668,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/", + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 319, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", + "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", + "numforecasts": 292, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" } }, { @@ -2283,18 +2750,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2314,7 +2781,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -2323,6 +2790,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/", @@ -2349,6 +2857,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/", @@ -2392,7 +2926,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1099, + "numforecasts": 1104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -2416,28 +2950,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -2446,6 +2965,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", + "numforecasts": 518, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -2461,6 +2995,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", @@ -2503,29 +3052,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1306, + "options": [], + "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2554,47 +3092,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", @@ -2677,47 +3174,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1064, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", @@ -2733,6 +3189,51 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", + "numforecasts": 98, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", @@ -2740,17 +3241,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -2759,21 +3260,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", @@ -2821,7 +3307,7 @@ } ], "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 439, + "numforecasts": 444, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -2831,55 +3317,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 509, + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "options": [], + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2898,18 +3377,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", + "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2927,58 +3417,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 379, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n", - "numforecasts": 131, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", @@ -3006,59 +3444,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/", + "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 332, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "numforecasts": 379, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "World Population in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", + "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", - "numforecasts": 311, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3076,6 +3525,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "World Population in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", + "numforecasts": 312, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", @@ -3103,33 +3567,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n", - "numforecasts": 230, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" } }, { @@ -3159,29 +3619,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n", + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3210,32 +3696,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 321, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", @@ -3304,18 +3764,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 245, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3360,70 +3831,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 245, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 142, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3467,28 +3886,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 120, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -3497,43 +3901,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", @@ -3542,6 +3916,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", @@ -3557,32 +3957,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", @@ -3599,55 +3973,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 12, + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "options": [], + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "numforecasts": 191, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3681,18 +4033,81 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "numforecasts": 152, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n", + "numforecasts": 131, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z" } }, { @@ -3737,18 +4152,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", + "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n", + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3768,7 +4198,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -3783,7 +4213,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -3793,44 +4223,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "numforecasts": 321, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3860,18 +4275,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 223, + "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -3916,44 +4331,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", + "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", - "numforecasts": 281, + "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" } }, { @@ -3982,6 +4397,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", + "numforecasts": 281, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -4009,33 +4450,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4053,32 +4531,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 156, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", @@ -4105,6 +4557,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", + "numforecasts": 152, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/", @@ -4131,39 +4598,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T23:13:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -4172,6 +4613,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -4199,44 +4670,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4254,58 +4710,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 180, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", @@ -4354,17 +4758,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 348, + "numforecasts": 431, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -4373,6 +4777,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", @@ -4400,59 +4819,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", - "numforecasts": 516, + "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "options": [], + "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4470,6 +4878,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 157, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", @@ -4485,47 +4919,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 519, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", @@ -4541,32 +4934,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 229, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", @@ -4599,7 +4966,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -4609,29 +4976,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4649,21 +5042,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 204, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/", @@ -4680,59 +5058,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4761,6 +5109,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", @@ -4829,29 +5192,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 184, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", + "numforecasts": 76, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4907,18 +5285,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" } }, { @@ -4963,74 +5352,96 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5059,6 +5470,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/", @@ -5085,21 +5526,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-05-24T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", @@ -5115,6 +5541,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", @@ -5172,59 +5624,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -5268,36 +5690,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", @@ -5313,6 +5705,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", @@ -5328,47 +5735,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", @@ -5401,7 +5767,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -5410,13 +5776,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", + "numforecasts": 101, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -5431,7 +5812,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -5441,29 +5822,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5472,7 +5842,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", @@ -5481,21 +5851,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-21T21:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T21:58:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", @@ -5538,18 +5893,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 216, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-21T21:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T21:58:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" } }, { @@ -5569,7 +5939,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -5584,7 +5954,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", @@ -5593,13 +5963,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -5608,21 +5993,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", @@ -5664,6 +6034,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", + "numforecasts": 192, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", @@ -5690,21 +6090,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n", - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", @@ -5746,21 +6131,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", @@ -5787,6 +6157,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will PHP die?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", @@ -5802,32 +6187,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. \nMathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan).\nBipartisan support within Australia is likely needed for Cormann to have a chance. The Coalition torpedoed former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's bid to become UN Secretary-General, but the Labor Party [has said they will support Cormann's bid](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s).\n[Australia has provided Cormann with flights on an Air Force plane to help his bid.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/pm-defends-raaf-jet-for-cormann/12917878)\nWill Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?\nQuestion resolves positive on an official statement by the OECD that Mathias Cormann is appointed the next Secretary-General.\nIf the term of the current Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría Treviño is shortened or extended for any reason, this will resolve positive if Mathias Cormann is the next elected Secretary-General of the OECD. \nIf for some reason Gurría does not complete his term, selection of an acting Secretary-General will not result in this question resolving negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-27T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", @@ -5869,6 +6228,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 187, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", @@ -5884,28 +6258,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", @@ -6017,7 +6376,7 @@ } ], "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -6062,7 +6421,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -6129,7 +6488,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).\nA recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.\nSummaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).\nThis question asks:\nBefore 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.\nIn the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.\nIf an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.\nThis resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z", @@ -6282,7 +6641,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6297,7 +6656,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -6323,7 +6682,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -6461,7 +6820,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -6537,21 +6896,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -6569,7 +6913,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -6578,6 +6922,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", + "numforecasts": 99, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", @@ -6595,7 +6969,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "numforecasts": 433, + "numforecasts": 434, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", @@ -6604,21 +6978,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 99, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/", @@ -6666,7 +7025,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", @@ -6692,7 +7051,7 @@ } ], "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -6824,21 +7183,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/", @@ -6865,6 +7209,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", + "numforecasts": 124, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", @@ -6927,7 +7286,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 126, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6951,21 +7310,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).\nAs of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.\nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", @@ -6992,6 +7336,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).\nAs of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.\nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", @@ -7024,7 +7383,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -7119,6 +7478,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", @@ -7145,32 +7530,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", @@ -7233,7 +7592,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 346, + "numforecasts": 347, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -7257,21 +7616,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-11-24T23:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", @@ -7287,6 +7631,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 44, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", @@ -7390,7 +7749,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7525,17 +7884,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "numforecasts": 257, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -7596,17 +7955,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 684, + "numforecasts": 688, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -7696,7 +8055,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -7711,7 +8070,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", @@ -7808,7 +8167,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", @@ -7824,17 +8183,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 310, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -7873,6 +8232,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/", @@ -7903,28 +8277,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -8006,7 +8365,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -8133,7 +8492,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", @@ -8159,7 +8518,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 674, + "numforecasts": 675, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -8174,7 +8533,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 428, + "numforecasts": 429, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -8383,7 +8742,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 1 March 2021 there are 46,738 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations.\nA plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/numberOfNewHospitlizations.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). \nData sources and more information:\n---[Department of Health and Human Service’s report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) \n---[COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---The CDC’s [Hospitalization forecasts website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/hospitalizations-forecasts.html) \n---[The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website](https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -8398,7 +8757,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 99, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8474,21 +8833,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-02T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", @@ -8581,7 +8925,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -8597,17 +8941,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -8708,7 +9052,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8749,7 +9093,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8758,21 +9102,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/", @@ -8805,7 +9134,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 534, + "numforecasts": 535, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -8967,6 +9296,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-29T21:53:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", + "numforecasts": 432, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/", @@ -8993,21 +9337,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 430, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", @@ -9025,7 +9354,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 286, + "numforecasts": 287, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -9064,36 +9393,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 117, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T13:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", @@ -9120,6 +9419,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", + "numforecasts": 132, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T13:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -9452,28 +9766,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", - "numforecasts": 132, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 674, + "numforecasts": 677, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -9482,6 +9781,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", + "numforecasts": 136, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", @@ -9504,17 +9818,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -9596,7 +9910,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -9866,21 +10180,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -9907,6 +10206,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/", @@ -9924,7 +10238,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 203, + "numforecasts": 204, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -9954,7 +10268,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 181, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", @@ -9969,7 +10283,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -10036,7 +10350,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 347, + "numforecasts": 354, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -10051,7 +10365,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -10215,7 +10529,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -10230,7 +10544,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", @@ -10245,7 +10559,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -10447,17 +10761,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 570, + "numforecasts": 571, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -10569,7 +10883,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 220, + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -10637,17 +10951,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -10841,7 +11155,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.\nAs of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. \nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to \"fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new \"fully vaccinated\" figure reported by the CDC.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", @@ -10857,17 +11171,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -10934,7 +11248,7 @@ } ], "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", @@ -11001,7 +11315,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -11072,7 +11386,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -11128,7 +11442,7 @@ } ], "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -11282,21 +11596,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/", @@ -11312,6 +11611,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/", @@ -11798,7 +12112,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -11843,7 +12157,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -11852,32 +12166,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/", @@ -11990,17 +12278,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 251, + "numforecasts": 254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -12339,7 +12627,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", @@ -12642,6 +12930,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -12694,21 +12997,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/", @@ -12853,7 +13141,7 @@ } ], "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -12894,7 +13182,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 578, + "numforecasts": 579, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -12965,7 +13253,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -13200,7 +13488,7 @@ } ], "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "numforecasts": 576, + "numforecasts": 578, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -13215,7 +13503,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -13297,7 +13585,7 @@ } ], "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -13368,7 +13656,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -13409,7 +13697,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -13459,6 +13747,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/", @@ -13474,21 +13777,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T23:47:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", @@ -13562,7 +13850,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -13700,7 +13988,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -14164,21 +14452,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n", - "numforecasts": 190, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/", @@ -14205,6 +14478,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n", + "numforecasts": 190, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/", @@ -14222,7 +14510,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -14427,7 +14715,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z", @@ -14442,7 +14730,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -14589,6 +14877,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/", @@ -14615,21 +14918,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/", @@ -14977,47 +15265,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 497, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", @@ -15044,6 +15291,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", + "numforecasts": 499, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/", @@ -15070,21 +15343,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 83, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/", @@ -15137,6 +15395,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 94, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", @@ -15214,7 +15487,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", @@ -15942,7 +16215,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -16058,7 +16331,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 870, + "numforecasts": 880, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -16088,7 +16361,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -16114,7 +16387,7 @@ } ], "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16144,7 +16417,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -16384,21 +16657,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 253, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/", @@ -16461,7 +16719,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -16528,7 +16786,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", @@ -17173,7 +17431,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -17182,21 +17440,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", - "numforecasts": 365, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/", @@ -17477,21 +17720,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:34:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", @@ -17513,7 +17741,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -17789,7 +18017,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -17804,7 +18032,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -17927,7 +18155,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", @@ -18059,32 +18287,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/", @@ -18447,21 +18649,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 157, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/", @@ -18503,6 +18690,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 161, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/", @@ -18529,21 +18731,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/", @@ -18591,7 +18778,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z", @@ -18688,7 +18875,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 139, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", @@ -18738,21 +18925,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/", @@ -18809,21 +18981,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", @@ -18850,6 +19007,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", + "numforecasts": 135, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/", @@ -19208,21 +19380,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 212, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/", @@ -19880,32 +20037,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "The End of NAFTA?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/", @@ -19938,7 +20069,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 99, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -20428,21 +20559,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/", @@ -21084,21 +21200,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-06-29T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Robocup Challenge", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/", @@ -21476,6 +21577,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/", @@ -21517,21 +21633,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:20:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/", @@ -21841,21 +21942,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/", @@ -21944,7 +22030,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z", @@ -22052,7 +22138,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-24T00:00:00Z", @@ -22138,7 +22224,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -22623,7 +22709,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -23157,7 +23243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -23237,32 +23323,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/", @@ -23356,32 +23416,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/", @@ -23448,7 +23482,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -23685,21 +23719,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/", @@ -23927,21 +23946,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/", @@ -24453,21 +24457,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/", @@ -25825,7 +25814,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 246, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", @@ -25882,17 +25871,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 267, + "numforecasts": 272, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -27036,7 +27025,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index f011dcc..105f007 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -53,17 +53,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8209913793103447, + "probability": 0.821587982832618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17900862068965528, + "probability": 0.17841201716738198, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 232, - "numforecasters": 124, + "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasters": 125, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -172,27 +172,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5068067226890757, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4931932773109243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 119, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -214,6 +193,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5068067226890757, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4931932773109243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -403,27 +403,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7812790697674419, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21872093023255812, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 86, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -446,23 +425,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "probability": 0.7812790697674419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "probability": 0.21872093023255812, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 80, - "numforecasters": 63, + "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -487,6 +466,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -844,69 +844,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 40, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38967741935483874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6103225806451613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -950,22 +887,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08806451612903227, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9119354838709677, + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38967741935483874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6103225806451613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -992,22 +992,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9027272727272727, + "probability": 0.08806451612903227, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09727272727272729, + "probability": 0.9119354838709677, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 31, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1075,27 +1075,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10552631578947368, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8944736842105263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 38, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1117,6 +1096,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10552631578947368, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8944736842105263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1138,6 +1138,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8055769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19442307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasters": 25, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1159,27 +1180,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20079999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 24, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1222,48 +1222,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5855882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41441176470588237, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2439285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7560714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 28, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1306,6 +1264,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5855882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41441176470588237, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2439285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7560714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1348,27 +1348,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1390,6 +1369,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1453,27 +1453,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6084375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39156250000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1495,6 +1474,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6084375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39156250000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1537,27 +1537,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13119999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1579,27 +1558,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.994090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.005909090909090975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1621,6 +1579,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.994090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.005909090909090975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1643,18 +1643,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1685,18 +1685,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1747,6 +1747,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1768,6 +1789,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1790,44 +1832,86 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "probability": 0.0695, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "probability": 0.9305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 20, + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "probability": 0.20523809523809525, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "probability": 0.7947619047619048, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13249999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1895,22 +1979,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8088888888888889, + "probability": 0.02210526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19111111111111112, + "probability": 0.9778947368421053, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7243478260869566, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2756521739130434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8313636363636364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16863636363636358, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1957,27 +2083,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8313636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16863636363636358, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2000,22 +2105,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.8088888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.19111111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 27, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2063,107 +2168,44 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "probability": 0.6434000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7947619047619048, + "probability": 0.3565999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8675, + "probability": 0.6427777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13249999999999995, + "probability": 0.35722222222222233, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0695, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9305, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7243478260869566, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2756521739130434, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02210526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9778947368421053, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -2209,48 +2251,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6434000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3565999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2272,27 +2272,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2314,27 +2293,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6427777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35722222222222233, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2357,39 +2315,102 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8395238095238095, + "probability": 0.8692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16047619047619055, + "probability": 0.13080000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "probability": 0.8340740740740741, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "probability": 0.16592592592592592, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2419,48 +2440,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2483,144 +2462,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8641666666666667, + "probability": 0.8395238095238095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13583333333333325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8334615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16653846153846164, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2161904761904762, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7838095238095237, + "probability": 0.16047619047619055, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2651,23 +2504,149 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, + "probability": 0.3095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, + "probability": 0.6905, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2161904761904762, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7838095238095237, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -2692,27 +2671,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4288888888888889, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5711111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2734,27 +2692,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7770588235294117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2229411764705883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2776,48 +2713,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8089473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2840,22 +2735,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3466666666666666, + "probability": 0.7770588235294117, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6533333333333333, + "probability": 0.2229411764705883, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2882,148 +2819,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.3466666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.6533333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "probability": 0.4288888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "probability": 0.5711111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5689655172413793, + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43103448275862066, + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "probability": 0.43473684210526314, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "probability": 0.5652631578947369, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3049,27 +2923,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3092,18 +2945,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3113,43 +2966,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3176,18 +3050,123 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "probability": 0.294375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.705625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5689655172413793, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43103448275862066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3218,65 +3197,44 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43473684210526314, + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5652631578947369, + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.933125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09823529411764706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9017647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -3301,216 +3259,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9214285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05941176470588236, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9405882352941176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3532,6 +3280,153 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3553,27 +3448,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3596,22 +3470,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3638,22 +3533,148 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05941176470588236, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9405882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9214285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3680,22 +3701,127 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "probability": 0.3375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "probability": 0.6625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.106875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.893125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7389473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2610526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3722,39 +3848,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "probability": 0.2675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "probability": 0.7324999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3763,48 +3889,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2764285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7235714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3827,85 +3911,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44153846153846155, + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5584615384615385, + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7324999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3830769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6169230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8146153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3953,43 +3974,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "probability": 0.4446153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "probability": 0.5553846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.106875, + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.893125, + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4015,6 +4036,132 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2764285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7235714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40842105263157896, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.591578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6271428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3728571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44153846153846155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5584615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4037,81 +4184,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "probability": 0.1853846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "probability": 0.8146153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, + "probability": 0.320625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4121,207 +4247,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, + "probability": 0.3830769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, + "probability": 0.6169230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "probability": 0.006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7389473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2610526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40842105263157896, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.591578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4446153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5553846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "100 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.007931034482758621, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9920689655172413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 29, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4310526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5689473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5246666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4753333333333333, + "probability": 0.994, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4331,39 +4289,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, + "probability": 0.8683333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24333333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7566666666666667, + "probability": 0.1316666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4372,132 +4309,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9535714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21076923076923082, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49242424242424243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5075757575757576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4520,22 +4331,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.696923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.303076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4310526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5689473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49242424242424243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5075757575757576, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4561,111 +4435,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6083333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3916666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4688,18 +4457,396 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, + "probability": 0.04642857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "probability": 0.9535714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9235714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4607142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5392857142857144, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24333333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7566666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6083333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3916666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07714285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9228571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46692307692307694, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.533076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4729,132 +4876,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46692307692307694, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.533076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9235714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.696923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.303076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4877,102 +4898,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07714285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9228571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4607142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5392857142857144, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.994, + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4981,6 +4918,111 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5003,18 +5045,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "probability": 0.08923076923076924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "probability": 0.9107692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5024,18 +5066,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5045,18 +5087,81 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5087,60 +5192,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6866666666666668, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5150,18 +5213,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5170,6 +5254,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5213,22 +5339,127 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5254,174 +5485,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28428571428571425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7157142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21272727272727274, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7872727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "50 million", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5443,111 +5506,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4307692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5692307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08923076923076924, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9107692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5570,18 +5528,81 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "probability": 0.5685714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6836363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5591,22 +5612,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.7525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5632,6 +5695,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5654,18 +5759,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03769230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9623076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5696,18 +5822,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5717,18 +5864,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5738,18 +5885,102 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "probability": 0.9325, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5780,39 +6011,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5685714285714285, + "probability": 0.140625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "probability": 0.859375, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03769230769230769, + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9623076923076923, + "probability": 0.543076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5821,132 +6052,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5557142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4442857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2809090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7190909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5968,6 +6073,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5990,144 +6116,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "probability": 0.10916666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6836363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, + "probability": 0.8908333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "probability": 0.22083333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "probability": 0.7791666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4107692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5892307692307692, + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6137,39 +6179,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "probability": 0.204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6910000000000001, + "probability": 0.796, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6178,6 +6199,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17923076923076922, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8207692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.750909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24909090909090903, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6200,81 +6284,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, + "probability": 0.09357142857142858, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5329999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "probability": 0.9064285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6284,18 +6305,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "probability": 0.07090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "probability": 0.9290909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.060909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9390909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6910000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6305,18 +6368,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.783, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17300000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.827, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6368,18 +6452,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "probability": 0.3346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "probability": 0.6653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6389,18 +6473,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6409,69 +6514,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17923076923076922, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8207692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6494,43 +6536,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.556, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44399999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6557,39 +6578,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.113, + "probability": 0.155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, + "probability": 0.845, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6599,39 +6599,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09357142857142858, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9064285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.796, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6641,18 +6620,249 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.025, + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.975, + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.467, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5329999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.587, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.261, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.739, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3681818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4107692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9114285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6683,43 +6893,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44166666666666665, + "probability": 0.5690909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5583333333333333, + "probability": 0.4309090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6745,6 +6934,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6767,106 +6977,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.750909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24909090909090903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7791666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17300000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6893,39 +7019,102 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07090909090909091, + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9290909090909091, + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.060909090909090906, + "probability": 0.025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9390909090909091, + "probability": 0.975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.887, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6956,102 +7145,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "probability": 0.44166666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3346153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6653846153846155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10916666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "probability": 0.5583333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7061,39 +7166,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "probability": 0.556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9114285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.261, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.739, + "probability": 0.44399999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7102,90 +7186,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4309090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.587, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3681818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6318181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released", "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67", @@ -8469,13 +8469,45 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8540,64 +8572,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 319, + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 292, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", @@ -8614,6 +8630,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", @@ -8657,13 +8700,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 231, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z", @@ -8673,6 +8743,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 540, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", @@ -8689,22 +8786,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -8712,17 +8793,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -8733,36 +8814,74 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 232, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n", + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "numforecasts": 16, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?", @@ -8780,6 +8899,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/", @@ -8850,6 +8985,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 213, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", @@ -8867,7 +9045,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 240, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", @@ -8878,36 +9056,128 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1087, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", @@ -8915,7 +9185,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", @@ -8925,6 +9195,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", @@ -8953,18 +9255,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 236, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -8985,7 +9287,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 286, + "numforecasts": 287, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -8995,13 +9297,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -9011,6 +9329,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 51, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", + "numforecasts": 366, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", @@ -9028,18 +9378,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9060,7 +9426,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -9071,31 +9437,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", @@ -9167,6 +9538,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 43, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", @@ -9194,22 +9597,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -9259,7 +9646,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", @@ -9296,6 +9683,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/", @@ -9323,6 +9726,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -9351,20 +9770,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", @@ -9372,7 +9802,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 156, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", @@ -9382,6 +9812,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", @@ -9414,22 +9876,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 236, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", @@ -9447,7 +9893,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", @@ -9473,13 +9919,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 379, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", @@ -9490,18 +9952,50 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 356, + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 334, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9522,34 +10016,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9560,17 +10038,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 84, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -9623,22 +10101,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", @@ -9682,6 +10144,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", @@ -9698,13 +10176,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 509, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -9715,18 +10220,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 16, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9828,18 +10333,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9849,7 +10354,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 214, + "numforecasts": 219, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -9918,6 +10423,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", @@ -9946,56 +10478,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1306, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10026,6 +10531,65 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 254, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 133, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -10053,22 +10617,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 132, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", @@ -10101,6 +10649,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", @@ -10117,22 +10681,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", @@ -10193,34 +10741,50 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 129, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10240,6 +10804,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "numforecasts": 138, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", @@ -10247,17 +10843,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -10267,22 +10863,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", @@ -10353,6 +10933,54 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", @@ -10370,74 +10998,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/", + "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "options": [], + "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", @@ -10467,64 +11057,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", + "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 15, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", @@ -10552,6 +11099,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", + "numforecasts": 127, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", @@ -10568,22 +11131,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "numforecasts": 126, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/", @@ -10628,18 +11175,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 210, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10702,33 +11249,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 534, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -10746,7 +11266,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n", - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", @@ -10757,61 +11277,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 319, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", + "numforecasts": 292, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10870,18 +11363,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10902,7 +11395,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -10912,6 +11405,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/", @@ -10939,6 +11475,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/", @@ -10983,7 +11546,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1099, + "numforecasts": 1104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -11009,29 +11572,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -11041,6 +11588,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", + "numforecasts": 518, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -11057,6 +11620,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", @@ -11101,31 +11680,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1306, + "options": [], + "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", @@ -11154,49 +11722,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", @@ -11283,49 +11808,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1064, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", @@ -11342,6 +11824,54 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", + "numforecasts": 98, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", @@ -11349,17 +11879,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -11369,22 +11899,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", @@ -11434,7 +11948,7 @@ } ], "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 439, + "numforecasts": 444, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -11445,58 +11959,52 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 509, + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "options": [], + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", @@ -11515,20 +12023,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", + "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?", @@ -11546,60 +12065,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 379, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n", - "numforecasts": 131, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", @@ -11628,61 +12093,72 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/", + "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 332, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "numforecasts": 379, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "World Population in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", + "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", - "numforecasts": 311, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11702,6 +12178,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "World Population in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", + "numforecasts": 312, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", @@ -11730,36 +12222,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n", - "numforecasts": 230, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", @@ -11789,29 +12276,56 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n", + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11842,33 +12356,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 321, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", @@ -11940,20 +12427,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 245, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", @@ -11999,75 +12497,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 245, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 142, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -12111,29 +12555,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 120, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -12143,45 +12571,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", @@ -12191,6 +12587,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", @@ -12207,33 +12630,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", @@ -12251,58 +12647,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 12, + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "options": [], + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "numforecasts": 191, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", @@ -12337,20 +12711,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "numforecasts": 152, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n", + "numforecasts": 131, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", @@ -12396,18 +12835,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", + "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n", + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12428,7 +12883,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -12444,7 +12899,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -12455,48 +12910,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "numforecasts": 321, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -12525,18 +12964,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 223, + "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12584,48 +13023,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", + "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", - "numforecasts": 281, + "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", @@ -12653,6 +13092,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", + "numforecasts": 281, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -12681,36 +13147,74 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", @@ -12728,33 +13232,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 156, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", @@ -12782,6 +13259,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", + "numforecasts": 152, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/", @@ -12809,40 +13302,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -12852,6 +13318,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -12880,45 +13378,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12938,60 +13420,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 180, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", @@ -13042,17 +13470,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 348, + "numforecasts": 431, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -13062,6 +13490,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", @@ -13090,63 +13534,52 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", - "numforecasts": 516, + "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "options": [], + "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", @@ -13164,6 +13597,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 157, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", @@ -13180,49 +13640,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 519, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", @@ -13239,33 +13656,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 229, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", @@ -13299,7 +13689,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -13310,29 +13700,56 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13352,22 +13769,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 204, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/", @@ -13385,64 +13786,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -13470,6 +13839,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", @@ -13541,32 +13926,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 184, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", + "numforecasts": 76, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", @@ -13622,20 +14023,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", @@ -13681,79 +14093,101 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", @@ -13782,6 +14216,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/", @@ -13809,22 +14275,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", @@ -13841,6 +14291,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", @@ -13901,61 +14378,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14002,38 +14447,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", @@ -14050,6 +14463,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", @@ -14066,49 +14495,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", @@ -14142,7 +14528,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -14152,13 +14538,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", + "numforecasts": 101, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -14174,7 +14576,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -14185,31 +14587,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?", @@ -14217,7 +14608,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", @@ -14227,22 +14618,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-21T21:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T21:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", @@ -14287,18 +14662,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 216, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-21T21:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T21:58:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14319,7 +14710,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -14335,7 +14726,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", @@ -14345,13 +14736,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -14361,22 +14768,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", @@ -14420,6 +14811,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", + "numforecasts": 192, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", @@ -14447,22 +14870,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n", - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", @@ -14506,22 +14913,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", @@ -14549,6 +14940,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will PHP die?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", @@ -14565,33 +14972,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. \nMathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan).\nBipartisan support within Australia is likely needed for Cormann to have a chance. The Coalition torpedoed former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's bid to become UN Secretary-General, but the Labor Party [has said they will support Cormann's bid](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s).\n[Australia has provided Cormann with flights on an Air Force plane to help his bid.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/pm-defends-raaf-jet-for-cormann/12917878)\nWill Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?\nQuestion resolves positive on an official statement by the OECD that Mathias Cormann is appointed the next Secretary-General.\nIf the term of the current Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría Treviño is shortened or extended for any reason, this will resolve positive if Mathias Cormann is the next elected Secretary-General of the OECD. \nIf for some reason Gurría does not complete his term, selection of an acting Secretary-General will not result in this question resolving negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-27T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", @@ -14635,6 +15015,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 187, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", @@ -14651,29 +15047,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", @@ -14791,7 +15171,7 @@ } ], "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -14839,7 +15219,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -14909,7 +15289,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).\nA recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.\nSummaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).\nThis question asks:\nBefore 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.\nIn the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.\nIf an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.\nThis resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z", @@ -15070,7 +15450,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15086,7 +15466,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -15113,7 +15493,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -15258,7 +15638,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -15338,22 +15718,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -15371,7 +15735,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -15381,6 +15745,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", + "numforecasts": 99, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", @@ -15398,7 +15794,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "numforecasts": 433, + "numforecasts": 434, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", @@ -15408,22 +15804,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 99, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/", @@ -15473,7 +15853,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", @@ -15500,7 +15880,7 @@ } ], "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -15639,22 +16019,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/", @@ -15682,6 +16046,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", + "numforecasts": 124, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", @@ -15747,7 +16127,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 126, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15773,22 +16153,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).\nAs of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.\nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", @@ -15816,6 +16180,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).\nAs of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.\nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", @@ -15849,7 +16229,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -15950,6 +16330,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", @@ -15977,33 +16384,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/", @@ -16069,7 +16449,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 346, + "numforecasts": 347, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -16095,22 +16475,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", @@ -16127,6 +16491,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 44, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", @@ -16235,7 +16615,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16376,17 +16756,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "numforecasts": 257, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -16451,17 +16831,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 684, + "numforecasts": 688, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -16557,7 +16937,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -16573,7 +16953,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", @@ -16675,7 +17055,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", @@ -16692,17 +17072,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 310, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -16744,6 +17124,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/", @@ -16776,29 +17172,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -16884,7 +17264,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -17018,7 +17398,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", @@ -17045,7 +17425,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 674, + "numforecasts": 675, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -17061,7 +17441,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 428, + "numforecasts": 429, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -17281,7 +17661,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 1 March 2021 there are 46,738 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations.\nA plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/numberOfNewHospitlizations.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). \nData sources and more information:\n---[Department of Health and Human Service’s report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) \n---[COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---The CDC’s [Hospitalization forecasts website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/hospitalizations-forecasts.html) \n---[The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website](https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -17297,7 +17677,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 99, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -17377,22 +17757,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", @@ -17490,7 +17854,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -17507,17 +17871,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -17624,7 +17988,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -17667,7 +18031,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -17677,22 +18041,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/", @@ -17726,7 +18074,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 534, + "numforecasts": 535, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -17897,6 +18245,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", + "numforecasts": 432, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/", @@ -17924,22 +18288,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 430, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", @@ -17957,7 +18305,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 286, + "numforecasts": 287, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -17999,38 +18347,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 117, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T13:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", @@ -18058,6 +18374,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", + "numforecasts": 132, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T13:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", @@ -18407,29 +18739,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", - "numforecasts": 132, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 674, + "numforecasts": 677, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -18439,6 +18755,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", + "numforecasts": 136, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", @@ -18462,17 +18794,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -18558,7 +18890,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -18842,22 +19174,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -18885,6 +19201,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/", @@ -18902,7 +19234,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 203, + "numforecasts": 204, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -18934,7 +19266,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 181, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", @@ -18950,7 +19282,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -19020,7 +19352,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 347, + "numforecasts": 354, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -19036,7 +19368,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -19208,7 +19540,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -19224,7 +19556,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", @@ -19240,7 +19572,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -19451,17 +19783,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 570, + "numforecasts": 571, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -19579,7 +19911,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 220, + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -19650,17 +19982,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -19864,7 +20196,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.\nAs of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. \nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to \"fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new \"fully vaccinated\" figure reported by the CDC.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", @@ -19881,17 +20213,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -19961,7 +20293,7 @@ } ], "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", @@ -20031,7 +20363,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -20106,7 +20438,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -20165,7 +20497,7 @@ } ], "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -20326,22 +20658,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/", @@ -20358,6 +20674,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/", @@ -20865,7 +21197,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -20913,7 +21245,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -20923,33 +21255,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/", @@ -21069,17 +21374,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 251, + "numforecasts": 254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -21434,7 +21739,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", @@ -21751,6 +22056,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -21805,22 +22126,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/", @@ -21972,7 +22277,7 @@ } ], "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -22015,7 +22320,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 578, + "numforecasts": 579, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -22090,7 +22395,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -22337,7 +22642,7 @@ } ], "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "numforecasts": 576, + "numforecasts": 578, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -22353,7 +22658,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -22439,7 +22744,7 @@ } ], "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -22514,7 +22819,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -22557,7 +22862,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -22610,6 +22915,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/", @@ -22626,22 +22947,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", @@ -22718,7 +23023,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -22863,7 +23168,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -23351,22 +23656,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n", - "numforecasts": 190, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/", @@ -23394,6 +23683,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n", + "numforecasts": 190, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/", @@ -23411,7 +23716,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -23626,7 +23931,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z", @@ -23642,7 +23947,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -23797,6 +24102,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/", @@ -23824,22 +24145,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/", @@ -24205,49 +24510,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 497, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", @@ -24275,6 +24537,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", + "numforecasts": 499, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/", @@ -24302,22 +24591,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 83, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/", @@ -24372,6 +24645,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 94, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", @@ -24453,7 +24742,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", @@ -25220,7 +25509,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -25343,7 +25632,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 870, + "numforecasts": 880, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -25375,7 +25664,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -25402,7 +25691,7 @@ } ], "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -25434,7 +25723,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -25686,22 +25975,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 253, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/", @@ -25767,7 +26040,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -25837,7 +26110,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", @@ -26514,7 +26787,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -26524,22 +26797,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", - "numforecasts": 365, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/", @@ -26835,22 +27092,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", @@ -26873,7 +27114,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -27163,7 +27404,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -27179,7 +27420,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -27308,7 +27549,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", @@ -27447,33 +27688,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/", @@ -27855,22 +28069,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 157, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/", @@ -27914,6 +28112,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 161, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/", @@ -27941,22 +28155,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/", @@ -28006,7 +28204,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z", @@ -28108,7 +28306,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 139, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", @@ -28161,22 +28359,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/", @@ -28236,22 +28418,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", @@ -28279,6 +28445,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", + "numforecasts": 135, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/", @@ -28655,22 +28837,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 212, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/", @@ -29363,33 +29529,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 149, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The End of NAFTA?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/", @@ -29423,7 +29562,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 99, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -29938,22 +30077,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/", @@ -30626,22 +30749,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Robocup Challenge", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/", @@ -31039,6 +31146,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n", + "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/", @@ -31082,22 +31205,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/", @@ -31421,22 +31528,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/", @@ -31529,7 +31620,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z", @@ -31642,7 +31733,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-24T00:00:00Z", @@ -31733,7 +31824,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -32243,7 +32334,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -32806,7 +32897,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", @@ -32891,33 +32982,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/", @@ -33015,33 +33079,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/", @@ -33112,7 +33149,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -33363,22 +33400,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/", @@ -33616,22 +33637,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/", @@ -34169,22 +34174,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/", @@ -35613,7 +35602,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 246, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", @@ -35673,17 +35662,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 267, + "numforecasts": 272, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -36882,7 +36871,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -37870,12 +37859,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37890,22 +37879,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4380952380952381, + "probability": 0.4423076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37920,12 +37909,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5436893203883496, + "probability": 0.548076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45631067961165045, + "probability": 0.45192307692307687, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37940,12 +37929,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.594059405940594, + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4059405940594059, + "probability": 0.42574257425742573, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37960,47 +37949,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.30275229357798167, + "probability": 0.2777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.6330275229357797, + "probability": 0.6574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38015,12 +38004,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38055,12 +38044,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38075,12 +38064,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38115,12 +38104,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8921568627450981, + "probability": 0.900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "probability": 0.09900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38135,12 +38124,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.8910891089108911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38155,78 +38144,78 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4568965517241379, + "probability": 0.44067796610169485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.24999999999999994, + "probability": 0.22881355932203387, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.08620689655172413, + "probability": 0.09322033898305083, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06896551724137931, + "probability": 0.07627118644067796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, + "probability": 0.0423728813559322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.025423728813559317, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.025423728813559317, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dianne Morales", + "probability": 0.016949152542372878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -38275,12 +38264,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38335,12 +38324,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6019417475728155, + "probability": 0.6078431372549019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39805825242718446, + "probability": 0.39215686274509803, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38355,12 +38344,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38375,12 +38364,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38395,12 +38384,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38465,12 +38454,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38485,12 +38474,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7722772277227723, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.22772277227722773, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38510,12 +38499,12 @@ }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38535,12 +38524,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38555,52 +38544,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.00869565217391304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.01739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.17757009345794392, + "probability": 0.1478260869565217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.3644859813084112, + "probability": 0.3478260869565217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.28695652173913033, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.12173913043478259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "probability": 0.01739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.026086956521739122, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.01739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.00869565217391304, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38615,12 +38604,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38635,82 +38624,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.45535714285714285, + "probability": 0.45631067961165034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.33928571428571425, + "probability": 0.320388349514563, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.044642857142857144, + "probability": 0.04854368932038834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38725,37 +38714,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.5384615384615385, + "probability": 0.5188679245283019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.23076923076923075, + "probability": 0.22641509433962262, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.125, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.07692307692307693, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38790,88 +38779,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.2363636363636363, + "probability": 0.24074074074074067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.13636363636363633, + "probability": 0.1481481481481481, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10185185185185182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09090909090909088, + "probability": 0.09259259259259257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05454545454545453, + "probability": 0.05555555555555554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.05454545454545453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.04545454545454544, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "probability": 0.05555555555555554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marco Rubio", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "name": "Tim Scott", + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018181818181818177, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Jr., Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -38880,12 +38869,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38899,24 +38888,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "name": "Hillary Clinton", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernie Sanders", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders" }, { "title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?", @@ -38925,37 +38914,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.14423076923076922, + "probability": 0.13761467889908255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.22115384615384615, + "probability": 0.2660550458715596, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.3269230769230769, + "probability": 0.3211009174311926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.19230769230769232, + "probability": 0.17431192660550457, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38970,37 +38959,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.4857142857142857, + "probability": 0.49038461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24761904761904763, + "probability": 0.24038461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39055,12 +39044,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39115,12 +39104,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39135,12 +39124,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.7722772277227723, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22772277227722773, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39155,67 +39144,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.39215686274509803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.29411764705882354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39230,12 +39219,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39250,12 +39239,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39270,12 +39259,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39290,12 +39279,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39380,83 +39369,83 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.6434782608695652, + "probability": 0.6460176991150441, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.23478260869565215, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.23893805309734512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gary Chambers", + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Troy Carter, Karen Peterson, Gary Chambers, Chelsea Ardoin, Belden Batiste, Claston Bernard, Harold John, Christopher Johnson, Brandon Jolicoeur, Lloyd Kelly, Greg Lirette, Mindy McConnell, Desiree Ontiveros, Jenette Porter, Sheldon Vincent Sr." + "optionsstringforsearch": "Troy Carter, Karen Peterson, Chelsea Ardoin, Belden Batiste, Claston Bernard, Gary Chambers, Harold John, Christopher Johnson, Brandon Jolicoeur, Lloyd Kelly, Greg Lirette, Mindy McConnell, Desiree Ontiveros, Jenette Porter, Sheldon Vincent Sr." }, { "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?", @@ -39465,52 +39454,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8857142857142857, + "probability": 0.8867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39525,12 +39514,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39545,58 +39534,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5438596491228069, + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.24561403508771928, + "probability": 0.23636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09649122807017543, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "probability": 0.09999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "probability": 0.045454545454545456, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "name": "Suga Yoshihide", + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xi Jinping", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Moon Jae-in", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Kim Jong-un, Suga Yoshihide, Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" }, { "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?", @@ -39605,12 +39594,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39625,12 +39614,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6116504854368932, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.3883495145631068, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39645,52 +39634,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.37837837837837834, + "probability": 0.18518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.18018018018018017, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.17117117117117117, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.12612612612612611, + "probability": 0.18518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.14814814814814814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, + "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39705,12 +39694,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 53", - "probability": 0.9158878504672896, + "probability": 0.9065420560747662, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39770,21 +39759,21 @@ }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3235294117647059, + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.16666666666666669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "probability": 0.1568627450980392, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eliza Orlins", "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -39811,7 +39800,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Eliza Orlins, Dan Quart, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty, Lucy Lang" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Dan Quart, Eliza Orlins, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty, Lucy Lang" }, { "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?", @@ -39820,58 +39809,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.33333333333333326, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.16666666666666663, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.11764705882352938, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.039215686274509796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.039215686274509796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", + "probability": 0.029411764705882346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.029411764705882346, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", + "probability": 0.029411764705882346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.019607843137254898, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Paul Kagame" }, { "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", @@ -39880,12 +39869,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39940,17 +39929,17 @@ }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39968,65 +39957,65 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Jon Sallet", + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Terrell McSweeny", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Leibowitz", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Gelfand", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steven Sunshine", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Terrell McSweeny, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Jon Leibowitz, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Jon Sallet, Deborah Feinstein, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Rebecca Slaughter, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Susan Davies" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -40035,17 +40024,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.8349514563106796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.1553398058252427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40120,58 +40109,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4403669724770642, + "probability": 0.4326923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.11926605504587155, + "probability": 0.12499999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "probability": 0.08653846153846151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "probability": 0.08653846153846151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, + "probability": 0.06730769230769229, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.06730769230769229, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "probability": 0.048076923076923066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.03846153846153845, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.028846153846153837, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.019230769230769225, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -40185,7 +40174,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40215,32 +40204,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6435643564356436, + "probability": 0.6470588235294118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40255,52 +40244,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "probability": 0.12612612612612611, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.2252252252252252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.2252252252252252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.10891089108910891, + "probability": 0.18918918918918917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.05405405405405405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40320,7 +40309,12 @@ }, { "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40328,20 +40322,15 @@ "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Charlie Dent" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Donald Trump Jr., Everett Stern, Charlie Dent" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?", @@ -40350,12 +40339,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.42574257425742573, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40370,12 +40359,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.6568627450980392, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.34313725490196073, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40390,12 +40379,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.5148514851485149, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48514851485148514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40410,68 +40399,68 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.4727272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.11818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.09999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.054545454545454536, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.045454545454545456, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.03636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.39639639639639634, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.18918918918918917, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ann O'Leary", + "probability": 0.09009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bianchi", + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Sarah Bianchi, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Chris Lu, John Jones, Sonal Shah, Heather Boushey, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Jared Bernstein, Neera Tanden" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Sarah Bianchi, Chris Lu, Martha Coven, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, John Jones, Sonal Shah, Neera Tanden" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", @@ -40500,52 +40489,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.11818181818181818, + "probability": 0.13084112149532712, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1M to 1.05M", - "probability": 0.23636363636363636, + "probability": 0.2336448598130841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.24545454545454545, + "probability": 0.24299065420560748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.15454545454545454, + "probability": 0.14953271028037382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.15M to 1.2M", - "probability": 0.09090909090909091, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.2M to 1.25M", - "probability": 0.06363636363636364, + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.25M to 1.3M", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.4M or more", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40560,52 +40549,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", - "probability": 0.3272727272727272, + "probability": 0.34513274336283184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.5636363636363636, + "probability": 0.5309734513274336, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.03636363636363636, + "probability": 0.053097345132743355, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 or more", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40620,32 +40609,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Darrell Steinberg", + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Goodwin Liu", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40657,11 +40636,21 @@ "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Rosen", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Diana Becton", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Darrell Steinberg, Goodwin Liu, Adam Schiff, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Adam Schiff, Darrell Steinberg, Goodwin Liu, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?", @@ -40670,52 +40659,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.20754716981132074, + "probability": 0.2019230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.22641509433962262, + "probability": 0.22115384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.1509433962264151, + "probability": 0.16346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40724,8 +40713,8 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "70 or fewer, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 to 88, 89 to 91, 92 to 94, 95 or more" }, { - "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 House GOP nomination in any Illinois district?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-district", + "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { @@ -40750,12 +40739,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40770,58 +40759,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5740740740740741, + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.12037037037037036, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.07407407407407407, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Mark Rutte, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Mark Rutte, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?", @@ -40830,62 +40819,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.4220183486238532, + "probability": 0.4205607476635514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.2110091743119266, + "probability": 0.18691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.11926605504587155, + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40900,52 +40889,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.0594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.2871287128712871, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4059405940594059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41000,37 +40989,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "11 or 12", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13 or 14", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15 or 16", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17 or 18", - "probability": 0.7999999999999999, + "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19 or 20", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21 or 22", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41045,52 +41034,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.008849557522123895, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.008849557522123895, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.01769911504424779, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.03539823008849558, + "probability": 0.036036036036036036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.09734513274336284, + "probability": 0.12612612612612611, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.168141592920354, + "probability": 0.18918918918918917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.1946902654867257, + "probability": 0.2072072072072072, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.18584070796460178, + "probability": 0.2072072072072072, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.1769911504424779, + "probability": 0.14414414414414414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.10619469026548674, + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41105,53 +41094,53 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.6037735849056604, + "probability": 0.5809523809523809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.24528301886792453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.24761904761904763, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.07619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "name": "Brian Harrison", + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lydia Bean", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Brian Harrison, Jake Ellzey, Lydia Bean, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Shawn Lassiter, Dan Rodimer" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Jake Ellzey, Brian Harrison, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter, Dan Rodimer" }, { "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?", @@ -41160,17 +41149,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41195,38 +41184,38 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rahm Emanuel", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.6057692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rahm Emanuel", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Dan Kritenbrink, Claire McCaskill, Rahm Emanuel, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, David Shambaugh, Charlene Barshefsky, Dan Kritenbrink, Claire McCaskill, Rahm Emanuel" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -41235,27 +41224,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Geoff Duncan", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Carr", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kelly Loeffler", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Carr", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41271,7 +41260,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Brian Kemp" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Geoff Duncan, Kelly Loeffler, Chris Carr, David Perdue, Brian Kemp" }, { "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?", @@ -41280,12 +41269,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41295,7 +41284,7 @@ }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41310,12 +41299,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41348,29 +41337,29 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Ann Wagner", + "name": "Jason Smith", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Ann Wagner", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41384,19 +41373,19 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Carl Edwards", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Carl Edwards", + "name": "Roy Blunt", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jason Smith, Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Billy Long, Roy Blunt, Carl Edwards" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, Roy Blunt" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -41405,12 +41394,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41420,28 +41409,28 @@ }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Forest", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Dan Forest", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Meadows", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows, Richard Burr" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows" }, { "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?", @@ -41450,12 +41439,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41470,12 +41459,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41490,22 +41479,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "39", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41520,7 +41509,7 @@ }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41535,52 +41524,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.3018867924528302, + "probability": 0.24509803921568626, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41595,12 +41584,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41609,37 +41598,44 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Texas reinstate a mask mandate by April 11, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-reinstate-a-mask-mandate-by-april-11-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the State of Texas will reinstate a mask mandate by April 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an executive order is issued by the Governor of Texas which mandates the use of a face covering over the nose and mouth when inside a commercial entity or other building or space open to the public, or when in an outdoor public space, and “No” otherwise. If such a mandate does not apply to some limited subset of people or cases (e.g. people younger than 10, any person with medical conditions that prevent wearing face covering, while eating, while exercising outdoors, as with the previous mask mandate), this market will still resolve to “Yes”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). As a general principle, this market will resolve to “Yes” if Texas implements any mask mandate that is substantially similar to the July 2, 2020 Texas Mask Mandate (Executive Order 29), which requires most people to wear masks in public most of the time (https://open.texas.gov/uploads/files/organization/opentexas/EO-GA-29-use-of-face-coverings-during-COVID-19-IMAGE-07-02-2020.pdf). \n", + "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district", + "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05829421923210072879808059175181826", + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9417057807678992712019194082481817", + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "13", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "title": "Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Tishaura Jones", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cara Spencer", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Tishaura Jones, Cara Spencer" }, { "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", @@ -41649,16 +41645,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.09728362770307546172914330719671408", + "probability": "0.05902598232681666200982481701164344", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9027163722969245382708566928032859", + "probability": "0.9409740176731833379901751829883566", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasts": "128", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9036515950928511635358167191699817", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.09634840490714883646418328083001827", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "733", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41670,37 +41687,49 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9452114734015495869638118769811163", + "probability": "0.9435356536350608715565417406926213", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.0547885265984504130361881230188837", + "probability": "0.05646434636493912844345825930737869", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1034", + "numforecasts": "1071", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01432606808215417991803017917628304", + "probability": "0.3887745743430308318676912690621931", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.985673931917845820081969820823717", + "probability": "0.6112254256569691681323087309378069", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasts": "77", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41712,39 +41741,30 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01389516044373435378063182721520866", + "probability": "0.01932603319246159979936740052424197", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9861048395562656462193681727847913", + "probability": "0.980673966807538400200632599475758", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3568", + "numforecasts": "3626", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36", "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3936958189982918074487164528450583", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6063041810017081925512835471549417", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?", @@ -41754,16 +41774,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9983116079227596854271689748822649", + "probability": "0.9986520290786028718671701259930864", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.001688392077240314572831025117735145", + "probability": "0.001347970921397128132829874006913591", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "663", + "numforecasts": "674", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41775,79 +41795,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4834566778345329977315227656538549", + "probability": "0.4788164960544351181242255057673392", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5165433221654670022684772343461451", + "probability": "0.5211835039455648818757744942326608", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-cuomo-be-governor-of-new-york-on-june-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Andrew Cuomo will be governor of New York on June 1, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Andrew Cuomo is the Governor of New York as substantiated by official government sources like https://www.governor.ny.gov/. If, for any reason, Andrew Cuomo is not the sitting Governor of New York on that date, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is https://www.governor.ny.gov/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5083291423100863410233022113049097", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4916708576899136589766977886950903", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "433", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3621072996119438479113176365007371", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6378927003880561520886823634992629", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "625", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4078498238685099705471928355126659", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5921501761314900294528071644873341", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "64", + "numforecasts": "162", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41859,37 +41816,100 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5114862844848516747636818003808942", + "probability": "0.6698391012972897454267571311051374", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4885137155151483252363181996191058", + "probability": "0.3301608987027102545732428688948626", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "463", + "numforecasts": "634", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.100364088706585908006574882025732", + "probability": "0.461650644497800453902327728625603", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.899635911293414091993425117974268", + "probability": "0.538349355502199546097672271374397", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "679", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bezos", + "probability": "0.7258803817512032679919939815925194", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Musk", + "probability": "0.2741196182487967320080060184074806", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "63", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05160390973624614342096611719880092", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9483960902637538565790338828011991", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "407", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6640572012578467357347805310725474", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3359427987421532642652194689274526", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "50", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41901,100 +41921,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.632820983255770104366547045114876", + "probability": "0.8849859138514669051289170708005449", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.367179016744229895633452954885124", + "probability": "0.1150140861485330948710829291994551", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2596", + "numforecasts": "3206", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.06715900669498866710782071644646634", + "probability": "0.091548406892143212385392240040001", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9328409933050113328921792835535337", + "probability": "0.908451593107856787614607759959999", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.688457840279010427492001639781704", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.311542159720989572507998360218296", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "54", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.04717515894490500720389270952511503", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.952824841055094992796107290474885", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "355", + "numforecasts": "285", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", + "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", + "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2002129005179530250578558801674456", + "probability": "0.4454041228571956517550168221474722", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7997870994820469749421441198325544", + "probability": "0.5545958771428043482449831778525278", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "28", + "numforecasts": "53", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42006,30 +41984,250 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6195444866581061794177625963749882", + "probability": "0.6487090934152266695603391098874658", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3804555133418938205822374036250118", + "probability": "0.3512909065847733304396608901125342", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4154", + "numforecasts": "4466", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1667088352530984217343162130372868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8332911647469015782656837869627132", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "31", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05170087651765483042668209011824899", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.948299123482345169573317909881751", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "68", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.08179629983207540093615884883569868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9182037001679245990638411511643013", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "46", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", + "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6495192955803167727753009134972571", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3504807044196832272246990865027429", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "numforecasts": "33", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 7,500", + "probability": 0.064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", + "probability": 0.138, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", + "probability": 0.32799999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", + "probability": 0.142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 13,500", + "probability": 0.32799999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "5", + "numforecasters": "5", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500" + }, + { + "title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 70,000", + "probability": 0.0333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", + "probability": 0.3333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", + "probability": 0.2267, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 130,000", + "probability": 0.23670000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3", + "numforecasters": "3", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000" + }, + { + "title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $400 billion", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.245, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", + "probability": 0.305, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $775 billion", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "2", + "numforecasters": "2", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 3%", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", + "probability": 0.4075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", + "probability": 0.1075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 7.5%", + "probability": 0.045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4", + "numforecasters": "4", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%" }, { "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?", @@ -42076,17 +42274,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "89", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42107,8 +42305,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "135", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "138", + "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42194,31 +42392,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.156, + "probability": 0.16010000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3165, + "probability": 0.3186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.3125, + "probability": 0.30760000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.16879999999999998, + "probability": 0.1681, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0463, + "probability": 0.045599999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "118", + "numforecasts": "119", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5" @@ -42268,31 +42466,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0483, + "probability": 0.0479, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3072, + "probability": 0.3015, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.32880000000000004, + "probability": 0.3299, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.1956, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1257, + "probability": 0.1252, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", + "numforecasts": "118", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" @@ -42511,8 +42709,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "268", - "numforecasters": "176", + "numforecasts": "269", + "numforecasters": "177", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42524,7 +42722,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0392, + "probability": 0.038599999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -42534,16 +42732,16 @@ }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2432, + "probability": 0.2441, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6081, + "probability": 0.6078, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "197", + "numforecasts": "199", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" @@ -42639,7 +42837,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "124", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -45996,7 +46194,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46006,7 +46204,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46106,12 +46304,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46130,7 +46328,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46145,7 +46343,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46165,12 +46363,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46205,17 +46403,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 November 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46235,12 +46433,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46265,17 +46463,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46285,7 +46483,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46300,7 +46498,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46310,7 +46508,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46415,7 +46613,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46430,7 +46628,7 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -46450,12 +46648,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46467,6 +46665,129 @@ "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" }, + { + "title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "20", + "numforecasters": "17", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 19.0 million", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "21", + "numforecasters": "19", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million" + }, + { + "title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $25 billion", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $55 billion", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "15", + "numforecasters": "14", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "22", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", @@ -46475,17 +46796,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46504,7 +46825,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "42", + "numforecasts": "43", "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021" @@ -46522,22 +46843,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "75", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -46549,16 +46870,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasts": "40", "numforecasters": "32", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -46571,17 +46892,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46600,8 +46921,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "77", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" }, @@ -46618,7 +46939,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46628,7 +46949,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46662,8 +46983,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "55", - "numforecasters": "30", + "numforecasts": "65", + "numforecasters": "32", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more" }, @@ -46685,7 +47006,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46695,7 +47016,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46724,8 +47045,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "127", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more" }, @@ -46757,22 +47078,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46791,8 +47112,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "203", - "numforecasters": "95", + "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" }, @@ -46809,22 +47130,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46853,8 +47174,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "122", - "numforecasters": "52", + "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more" }, @@ -46866,17 +47187,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "119", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -46888,12 +47209,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46902,8 +47223,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "65", - "numforecasters": "37", + "numforecasts": "66", + "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more" }, @@ -46915,17 +47236,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "409", - "numforecasters": "332", + "numforecasts": "421", + "numforecasters": "338", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -46942,12 +47263,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46957,12 +47278,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "292", - "numforecasters": "233", + "numforecasts": "304", + "numforecasters": "240", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -46974,17 +47295,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "307", - "numforecasters": "281", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "292", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -46996,17 +47317,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "191", + "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47018,22 +47339,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 8,000,000", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47042,8 +47363,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", - "numforecasters": "163", + "numforecasts": "217", + "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -47060,27 +47381,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $5.00", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "57", - "numforecasters": "22", + "numforecasts": "61", + "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" }, @@ -47092,17 +47413,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47116,8 +47437,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "129", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" }, @@ -47139,12 +47460,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47153,8 +47474,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" }, @@ -47171,16 +47492,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" @@ -47193,17 +47514,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "229", + "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47229,8 +47550,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "401", - "numforecasters": "296", + "numforecasts": "417", + "numforecasters": "305", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -47242,16 +47563,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", + "numforecasts": "67", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47273,7 +47594,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", + "numforecasts": "141", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47295,7 +47616,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasts": "171", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47317,8 +47638,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "49", + "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47339,8 +47660,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", - "numforecasters": "108", + "numforecasts": "187", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47361,7 +47682,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", + "numforecasts": "162", "numforecasters": "130", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47406,17 +47727,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "144", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47470,17 +47791,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47501,7 +47822,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47514,17 +47835,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "238", - "numforecasters": "104", + "numforecasts": "248", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47555,7 +47876,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "222", + "numforecasts": "225", "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" @@ -47568,22 +47889,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47592,7 +47913,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "132", + "numforecasts": "134", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" @@ -47614,8 +47935,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "88", - "numforecasters": "53", + "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47663,8 +47984,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "179", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "183", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47685,8 +48006,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "133", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "134", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47707,8 +48028,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "223", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "227", + "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47716,7 +48037,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e2818e83908b848b8183968b8d8c91a2858d8d86889786858f878c96cc818d8fdd91978088878196dfb3978791968b8d8cc7d0d2a18e83908b848b8183968b8d8c). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -47729,7 +48050,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "338", + "numforecasts": "340", "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47757,16 +48078,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "313", + "numforecasts": "325", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -47779,7 +48100,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47789,7 +48110,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47803,8 +48124,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "325", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "330", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" }, @@ -47825,7 +48146,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "147", + "numforecasts": "150", "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47847,8 +48168,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "235", - "numforecasters": "141", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47901,7 +48222,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" @@ -47928,7 +48249,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "71", + "numforecasts": "72", "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No" @@ -47955,8 +48276,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "164", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "166", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" }, @@ -47977,7 +48298,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasts": "91", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48014,7 +48335,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasts": "215", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" @@ -48027,16 +48348,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48085,7 +48406,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasts": "254", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48151,8 +48472,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "356", - "numforecasters": "212", + "numforecasts": "359", + "numforecasters": "214", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48214,11 +48535,11 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#90f3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffee3d0f7fffff4fae5f4f7fdf5fee4bef3fffdafe3e5f2faf5f3e4adc1e5f5e3e4f9fffeb5a2a0d3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffe). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d1b2bdb0a3b8b7b8b2b0a5b8bebfa291b6bebeb5bba4b5b6bcb4bfa5ffb2bebceea2a4b3bbb4b2a5ec80a4b4a2a5b8bebff4e3e192bdb0a3b8b7b8b2b0a5b8bebf). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48228,12 +48549,12 @@ }, { "name": "There will be a draw", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "166", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "169", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicaragua, St. Lucia, There will be a draw" }, @@ -48269,7 +48590,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "253", + "numforecasts": "255", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -48318,8 +48639,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "318", - "numforecasters": "137", + "numforecasts": "322", + "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party, Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party, There will not be an election before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -48389,7 +48710,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasts": "173", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48416,8 +48737,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "444", - "numforecasters": "192", + "numforecasts": "448", + "numforecasters": "193", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" }, @@ -48448,7 +48769,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "410", + "numforecasts": "414", "numforecasters": "210", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" @@ -48492,7 +48813,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "350", + "numforecasts": "351", "numforecasters": "225", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48514,7 +48835,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "276", + "numforecasts": "277", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48536,7 +48857,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "407", + "numforecasts": "411", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48568,7 +48889,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "312", + "numforecasts": "315", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" @@ -48581,17 +48902,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48627,7 +48948,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "250", + "numforecasts": "252", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" @@ -48671,7 +48992,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "386", + "numforecasts": "387", "numforecasters": "203", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48715,7 +49036,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "73", + "numforecasts": "75", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48738,12 +49059,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48752,7 +49073,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "237", + "numforecasts": "241", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50" @@ -48765,7 +49086,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only for president", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48775,7 +49096,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48784,7 +49105,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "119", + "numforecasts": "123", "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No" @@ -48806,8 +49127,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "408", - "numforecasters": "194", + "numforecasts": "412", + "numforecasters": "195", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48848,7 +49169,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", + "numforecasts": "189", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" @@ -48870,7 +49191,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "533", + "numforecasts": "538", "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48907,7 +49228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "525", + "numforecasts": "528", "numforecasters": "247", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" @@ -48944,8 +49265,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1611", - "numforecasters": "565", + "numforecasts": "1637", + "numforecasters": "574", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -48976,7 +49297,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "503", + "numforecasts": "506", "numforecasters": "214", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" @@ -48989,16 +49310,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "316", + "numforecasts": "318", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49020,7 +49341,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "510", + "numforecasts": "511", "numforecasters": "227", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49064,7 +49385,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "311", + "numforecasts": "314", "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49077,17 +49398,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "305", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49123,7 +49444,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasts": "289", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -49172,7 +49493,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "226", + "numforecasts": "229", "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49194,8 +49515,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "313", - "numforecasters": "166", + "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49253,7 +49574,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1380", + "numforecasts": "1390", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" @@ -49275,7 +49596,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", + "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49393,7 +49714,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "535", + "numforecasts": "538", "numforecasters": "151", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -49406,16 +49727,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "713", + "numforecasts": "718", "numforecasters": "155", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49428,17 +49749,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49452,8 +49773,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "443", - "numforecasters": "206", + "numforecasts": "449", + "numforecasters": "210", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -49489,7 +49810,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "462", + "numforecasts": "463", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -49521,7 +49842,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "444", + "numforecasts": "446", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" @@ -49583,12 +49904,12 @@ }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49598,7 +49919,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49612,8 +49933,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "333", - "numforecasters": "112", + "numforecasts": "338", + "numforecasters": "113", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" }, @@ -49649,7 +49970,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "672", + "numforecasts": "675", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" @@ -49671,7 +49992,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1132", + "numforecasts": "1136", "numforecasters": "451", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49715,7 +50036,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "325", + "numforecasts": "326", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49737,7 +50058,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "700", + "numforecasts": "705", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49760,7 +50081,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49770,11 +50091,11 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "819", + "numforecasts": "824", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" @@ -49840,7 +50161,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "618", + "numforecasts": "624", "numforecasters": "184", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49900,16 +50221,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "255", + "numforecasts": "260", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" @@ -49946,7 +50267,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "366", + "numforecasts": "368", "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000" @@ -49978,7 +50299,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "285", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" @@ -50015,7 +50336,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "272", + "numforecasts": "273", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more" @@ -50038,17 +50359,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "815", - "numforecasters": "277", + "numforecasts": "825", + "numforecasters": "284", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -50056,7 +50377,7 @@ "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#84e7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebeaf7c4e3ebebe0eef1e0e3e9e1eaf0aae7ebe9bbf7f1e6eee1e7f0b9d5f1e1f7f0edebeaa1b6b4c7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebea). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5b38373a29323d32383a2f323435281b3c34343f312e3f3c363e352f7538343664282e39313e382f660a2e3e282f3234357e696b18373a29323d32383a2f323435). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50078,7 +50399,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7b18171a09121d12181a0f121415083b1c14141f110e1f1c161e150f5518141644080e19111e180f462a0e1e080f1214155e494b38171a09121d12181a0f121415). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#90f3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffee3d0f7fffff4fae5f4f7fdf5fee4bef3fffdafe3e5f2faf5f3e4adc1e5f5e3e4f9fffeb5a2a0d3fcf1e2f9f6f9f3f1e4f9fffe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50091,7 +50412,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "632", + "numforecasts": "634", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50146,21 +50467,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasts": "248", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million" @@ -50206,7 +50527,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7f1c131e0d1619161c1e0b1610110c3f1810101b150a1b18121a110b511c1012400c0a1d151a1c0b422e0a1a0c0b1610115a4d4f3c131e0d1619161c1e0b161011). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bad9d6dbc8d3dcd3d9dbced3d5d4c9faddd5d5ded0cfdeddd7dfd4ce94d9d5d785c9cfd8d0dfd9ce87ebcfdfc9ced3d5d49f888af9d6dbc8d3dcd3d9dbced3d5d4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -50234,7 +50555,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1160", + "numforecasts": "1162", "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million" @@ -50243,7 +50564,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#73101f12011a151a1012071a1c1d0033141c1c17190617141e161d075d101c1e4c000611191610074e22061600071a1c1d564143301f12011a151a1012071a1c1d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dfbcb3beadb6b9b6bcbeabb6b0b1ac9fb8b0b0bbb5aabbb8b2bab1abf1bcb0b2e0acaabdb5babcabe28eaabaacabb6b0b1faedef9cb3beadb6b9b6bcbeabb6b0b1). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -50266,8 +50587,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1911", - "numforecasters": "791", + "numforecasts": "1940", + "numforecasters": "803", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -50275,7 +50596,7 @@ "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50297,20 +50618,20 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ee8d828f9c8788878d8f9a8781809dae8981818a849b8a89838b809ac08d8183d19d9b8c848b8d9ad3bf9b8b9d9a878180cbdcdead828f9c8788878d8f9a878180). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1051", + "numforecasts": "1056", "numforecasters": "461", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50384,7 +50705,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasts": "281", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but less than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000" @@ -50393,7 +50714,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#caa9a6abb8a3aca3a9abbea3a5a4b98aada5a5aea0bfaeada7afa4bee4a9a5a7f5b9bfa8a0afa9bef79bbfafb9bea3a5a4eff8fa89a6abb8a3aca3a9abbea3a5a4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#50333c3122393639333124393f3e2310373f3f343a2534373d353e247e333f3d6f2325323a3533246d0125352324393f3e756260133c3122393639333124393f3e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -50416,7 +50737,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasts": "391", "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" @@ -50475,7 +50796,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh" @@ -50512,7 +50833,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "423", + "numforecasts": "425", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%" @@ -50708,57 +51029,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5784313725490197, + "probability": 0.5742574257425743, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -50773,22 +51094,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.6391752577319587, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.13402061855670103, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.18556701030927833, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.04123711340206185, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -50823,17 +51144,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.9313725490196079, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.04901960784313725, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -50848,17 +51169,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.18811881188118812, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.8019801980198019, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same medals count", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -50888,32 +51209,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.11224489795918367, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.23469387755102042, + "probability": 0.24509803921568626, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.3469387755102041, + "probability": 0.38235294117647056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.28571428571428575, + "probability": 0.2647058823529412, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -50948,22 +51269,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.3604651162790698, + "probability": 0.30392156862745096, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.09302325581395349, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.058139534883720936, + "probability": 0.04901960784313725, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.48837209302325585, + "probability": 0.5686274509803921, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51153,27 +51474,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.1941747572815534, + "probability": 0.16190476190476188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.4271844660194175, + "probability": 0.3904761904761904, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.16190476190476188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.2233009708737864, + "probability": 0.26666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51213,17 +51534,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.23711340206185563, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.24742268041237112, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.5154639175257731, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51313,22 +51634,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.6534653465346534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.2277227722772277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51343,22 +51664,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51458,12 +51779,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9306930693069307, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51571,27 +51892,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.03746229444390386, + "probability": 0.03712990645192401, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.0009730466089325679, + "probability": 0.0009644131545954288, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025591125814926532, + "probability": 0.025364065965859772, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.027050695728325382, + "probability": 0.026810685697752915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.10810547825240828, + "probability": 0.10714630147555212, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -51601,22 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+ "probability": 0.03857652618381715, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.013914566507735718, + "probability": 0.01379110811071463, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -51661,17 +51982,17 @@ }, { "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.030359054198696115, + "probability": 0.030089690423377377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.023158509292595112, + "probability": 0.022953033079371202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Esther McVey", - "probability": 0.009730466089325677, + "probability": 0.009644131545954287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -51681,7 +52002,7 @@ }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.2904544127663715, + "probability": 0.2967499276690134, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51958,32 +52279,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.014837895986349133, + "probability": 0.014930944382232175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.007789895392833295, + "probability": 0.007838745800671891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.08828548111877735, + "probability": 0.08883911907428144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.14266636990874693, + "probability": 0.14356103023516237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.01060909563023963, + "probability": 0.010675625233296003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.02470509681727131, + "probability": 0.024860022396416572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -51993,7 +52314,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.041249350842050586, + "probability": 0.041508025382605444, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -52003,17 +52324,17 @@ }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.02470509681727131, + "probability": 0.024860022396416572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.01609911714518881, + "probability": 0.016200074654721907, 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"platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7777777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "David Lammy to be UK PM before end 2040", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Marcus Rashford To Become Uk Pm Before 2060", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Libertarian Party to win US Presidential election before 2041", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9803921568627451, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Nigel Farage to become UK PM in 2021", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Amanda Gorman to be elected US President in 2036", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9705882352941176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.004975124378109453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950248756218906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.csv b/data/polymarket-questions.csv index 4af9399..8a2a361 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.csv +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.csv @@ -1,40 +1,41 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Will Texas reinstate a mask mandate by April 11, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-reinstate-a-mask-mandate-by-april-11-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05829421923210072879808059175181826"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9417057807678992712019194082481817"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the State of Texas will reinstate a mask mandate by April 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an executive order is issued by the Governor of Texas which mandates the use of a face covering over the nose and mouth when inside a commercial entity or other building or space open to the public, or when in an outdoor public space, and “No” otherwise. If such a mandate does not apply to some limited subset of people or cases (e.g. people younger than 10, any person with medical conditions that prevent wearing face covering, while eating, while exercising outdoors, as with the previous mask mandate), this market will still resolve to “Yes”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). As a general principle, this market will resolve to “Yes” if Texas implements any mask mandate that is substantially similar to the July 2, 2020 Texas Mask Mandate (Executive Order 29), which requires most people to wear masks in public most of the time (https://open.texas.gov/uploads/files/organization/opentexas/EO-GA-29-use-of-face-coverings-during-COVID-19-IMAGE-07-02-2020.pdf). -","13",3 -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",,"[]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",, -"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.09728362770307546172914330719671408"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9027163722969245382708566928032859"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). -","112",4 -"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9452114734015495869638118769811163"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.0547885265984504130361881230188837"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","1034",4 -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01432606808215417991803017917628304"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.985673931917845820081969820823717"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","162",4 -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01389516044373435378063182721520866"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9861048395562656462193681727847913"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. +"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05902598232681666200982481701164344"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9409740176731833379901751829883566"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). +","128",4 +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9036515950928511635358167191699817"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.09634840490714883646418328083001827"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","733",4 +"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9435356536350608715565417406926213"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.05646434636493912844345825930737869"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","1071",4 +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"[]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",, +"Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3887745743430308318676912690621931"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6112254256569691681323087309378069"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3568",4 -"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3936958189982918074487164528450583"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6063041810017081925512835471549417"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","32",4 -"New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9983116079227596854271689748822649"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.001688392077240314572831025117735145"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.","663",4 -"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4834566778345329977315227656538549"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5165433221654670022684772343461451"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","77",4 +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01932603319246159979936740052424197"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.980673966807538400200632599475758"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. + +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3626",4 +"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",,"[]","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",, +"New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9986520290786028718671701259930864"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.001347970921397128132829874006913591"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.","674",4 +"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4788164960544351181242255057673392"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5211835039455648818757744942326608"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","160",4 -"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-cuomo-be-governor-of-new-york-on-june-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5083291423100863410233022113049097"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4916708576899136589766977886950903"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Andrew Cuomo will be governor of New York on June 1, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Andrew Cuomo is the Governor of New York as substantiated by official government sources like https://www.governor.ny.gov/. If, for any reason, Andrew Cuomo is not the sitting Governor of New York on that date, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is https://www.governor.ny.gov/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","433",4 -"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3621072996119438479113176365007371"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6378927003880561520886823634992629"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","625",4 -"Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4078498238685099705471928355126659"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5921501761314900294528071644873341"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","162",4 +"Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6698391012972897454267571311051374"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3301608987027102545732428688948626"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","634",4 +"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.461650644497800453902327728625603"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.538349355502199546097672271374397"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","679",4 +"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7258803817512032679919939815925194"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2741196182487967320080060184074806"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","63",4 +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05160390973624614342096611719880092"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9483960902637538565790338828011991"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. -","64",4 -"Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5114862844848516747636818003808942"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4885137155151483252363181996191058"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","463",4 -"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.100364088706585908006574882025732"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.899635911293414091993425117974268"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","284",4 -"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.632820983255770104366547045114876"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.367179016744229895633452954885124"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","2596",4 -"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.06715900669498866710782071644646634"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9328409933050113328921792835535337"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","66",3 -"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.688457840279010427492001639781704"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.311542159720989572507998360218296"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","54",3 -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04717515894490500720389270952511503"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.952824841055094992796107290474885"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","407",4 +"Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6640572012578467357347805310725474"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3359427987421532642652194689274526"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ","50",4 +"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8849859138514669051289170708005449"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1150140861485330948710829291994551"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3206",4 +"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.091548406892143212385392240040001"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.908451593107856787614607759959999"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","285",4 +"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4454041228571956517550168221474722"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5545958771428043482449831778525278"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","53",4 +"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6487090934152266695603391098874658"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3512909065847733304396608901125342"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","355",4 -"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2002129005179530250578558801674456"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7997870994820469749421441198325544"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","28",4 -"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6195444866581061794177625963749882"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3804555133418938205822374036250118"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations - -This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","4154",4 -"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",,"[]","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. -",, \ No newline at end of file +This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","4466",4 +"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1667088352530984217343162130372868"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8332911647469015782656837869627132"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","31",4 +"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05170087651765483042668209011824899"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.948299123482345169573317909881751"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","68",4 +"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08179629983207540093615884883569868"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9182037001679245990638411511643013"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","46",4 +"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6495192955803167727753009134972571"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3504807044196832272246990865027429"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. +","33",4 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index 0a40fce..0db43f9 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,35 +1,4 @@ [ - { - "title": "Will Texas reinstate a mask mandate by April 11, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-reinstate-a-mask-mandate-by-april-11-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the State of Texas will reinstate a mask mandate by April 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an executive order is issued by the Governor of Texas which mandates the use of a face covering over the nose and mouth when inside a commercial entity or other building or space open to the public, or when in an outdoor public space, and “No” otherwise. If such a mandate does not apply to some limited subset of people or cases (e.g. people younger than 10, any person with medical conditions that prevent wearing face covering, while eating, while exercising outdoors, as with the previous mask mandate), this market will still resolve to “Yes”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). As a general principle, this market will resolve to “Yes” if Texas implements any mask mandate that is substantially similar to the July 2, 2020 Texas Mask Mandate (Executive Order 29), which requires most people to wear masks in public most of the time (https://open.texas.gov/uploads/files/organization/opentexas/EO-GA-29-use-of-face-coverings-during-COVID-19-IMAGE-07-02-2020.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05829421923210072879808059175181826", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9417057807678992712019194082481817", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "13", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, { "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", @@ -38,16 +7,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.09728362770307546172914330719671408", + "probability": "0.05902598232681666200982481701164344", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9027163722969245382708566928032859", + "probability": "0.9409740176731833379901751829883566", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasts": "128", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9036515950928511635358167191699817", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.09634840490714883646418328083001827", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "733", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -58,36 +47,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9452114734015495869638118769811163", + "probability": "0.9435356536350608715565417406926213", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.0547885265984504130361881230188837", + "probability": "0.05646434636493912844345825930737869", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1034", + "numforecasts": "1071", "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [] + }, + { + "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01432606808215417991803017917628304", + "probability": "0.3887745743430308318676912690621931", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.985673931917845820081969820823717", + "probability": "0.6112254256569691681323087309378069", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasts": "77", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -98,37 +98,28 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01389516044373435378063182721520866", + "probability": "0.01932603319246159979936740052424197", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9861048395562656462193681727847913", + "probability": "0.980673966807538400200632599475758", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3568", + "numforecasts": "3626", "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36", "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3936958189982918074487164528450583", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6063041810017081925512835471549417", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "stars": 4 + "options": [] }, { "title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?", @@ -138,16 +129,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9983116079227596854271689748822649", + "probability": "0.9986520290786028718671701259930864", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.001688392077240314572831025117735145", + "probability": "0.001347970921397128132829874006913591", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "663", + "numforecasts": "674", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -158,76 +149,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4834566778345329977315227656538549", + "probability": "0.4788164960544351181242255057673392", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5165433221654670022684772343461451", + "probability": "0.5211835039455648818757744942326608", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-cuomo-be-governor-of-new-york-on-june-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Andrew Cuomo will be governor of New York on June 1, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Andrew Cuomo is the Governor of New York as substantiated by official government sources like https://www.governor.ny.gov/. If, for any reason, Andrew Cuomo is not the sitting Governor of New York on that date, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is https://www.governor.ny.gov/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5083291423100863410233022113049097", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4916708576899136589766977886950903", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "433", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3621072996119438479113176365007371", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6378927003880561520886823634992629", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "625", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4078498238685099705471928355126659", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5921501761314900294528071644873341", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "64", + "numforecasts": "162", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -238,36 +169,96 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5114862844848516747636818003808942", + "probability": "0.6698391012972897454267571311051374", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4885137155151483252363181996191058", + "probability": "0.3301608987027102545732428688948626", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "463", + "numforecasts": "634", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.100364088706585908006574882025732", + "probability": "0.461650644497800453902327728625603", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.899635911293414091993425117974268", + "probability": "0.538349355502199546097672271374397", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "679", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bezos", + "probability": "0.7258803817512032679919939815925194", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Musk", + "probability": "0.2741196182487967320080060184074806", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "63", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05160390973624614342096611719880092", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9483960902637538565790338828011991", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "407", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6640572012578467357347805310725474", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3359427987421532642652194689274526", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "50", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -278,96 +269,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.632820983255770104366547045114876", + "probability": "0.8849859138514669051289170708005449", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.367179016744229895633452954885124", + "probability": "0.1150140861485330948710829291994551", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2596", + "numforecasts": "3206", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.06715900669498866710782071644646634", + "probability": "0.091548406892143212385392240040001", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9328409933050113328921792835535337", + "probability": "0.908451593107856787614607759959999", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "66", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.688457840279010427492001639781704", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.311542159720989572507998360218296", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "54", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.04717515894490500720389270952511503", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.952824841055094992796107290474885", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "355", + "numforecasts": "285", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", + "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", + "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2002129005179530250578558801674456", + "probability": "0.4454041228571956517550168221474722", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7997870994820469749421441198325544", + "probability": "0.5545958771428043482449831778525278", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "28", + "numforecasts": "53", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -378,27 +329,96 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6195444866581061794177625963749882", + "probability": "0.6487090934152266695603391098874658", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3804555133418938205822374036250118", + "probability": "0.3512909065847733304396608901125342", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4154", + "numforecasts": "4466", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1667088352530984217343162130372868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8332911647469015782656837869627132", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "31", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05170087651765483042668209011824899", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.948299123482345169573317909881751", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "68", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.08179629983207540093615884883569868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9182037001679245990638411511643013", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "46", "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", + "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6495192955803167727753009134972571", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3504807044196832272246990865027429", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [] + "numforecasts": "33", + "stars": 4 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.csv b/data/predictit-questions.csv index eba96fe..4f2bc9f 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.csv +++ b/data/predictit-questions.csv @@ -1,33 +1,33 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. +"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45631067961165045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. +"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.548076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45192307692307687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.594059405940594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4059405940594059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. +"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5742574257425742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42574257425742573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.30275229357798167,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6330275229357797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. +"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.2777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.00925925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. +"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) ",,3 @@ -37,13 +37,13 @@ The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. +"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -59,16 +59,16 @@ The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8921568627450981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4568965517241379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.24999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.08620689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06896551724137931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017241379310344827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.017241379310344827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017241379310344827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.44067796610169485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.22881355932203387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.09322033898305083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07627118644067796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.0423728813559322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.025423728813559317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.025423728813559317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016949152542372878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. +"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -94,19 +94,19 @@ End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6019417475728155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39805825242718446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5882352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -123,39 +123,39 @@ In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules ",,3 -"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7722772277227723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22772277227722773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). +"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.17757009345794392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3644859813084112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. +"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00869565217391304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.01739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.1478260869565217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3478260869565217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.28695652173913033,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.12173913043478259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.01739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.026086956521739122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.01739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.00869565217391304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. +"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.45535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.33928571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.044642857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). +"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.45631067961165034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.320388349514563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04854368932038834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009708737864077667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5188679245283019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.22641509433962262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -163,18 +163,18 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.2363636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.13636363636363633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09090909090909088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.036363636363636355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.036363636363636355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.036363636363636355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.036363636363636355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.036363636363636355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.24074074074074067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.1481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.10185185185185182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05555555555555554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05555555555555554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.04629629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03703703703703703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03703703703703703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.14423076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.22115384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.3269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.19230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. +"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.055045871559633024,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.13761467889908255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.2660550458715596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.3211009174311926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.17431192660550457,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.4857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.49038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. +"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 @@ -202,33 +202,33 @@ End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. +"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7722772277227723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22772277227722773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. +"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.29411764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. +"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. +"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. +"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -237,22 +237,22 @@ Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, th PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.6434782608695652,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.23478260869565215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.6460176991150441,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.23893805309734512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5438596491228069,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.24561403508771928,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09649122807017543,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03508771929824561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.03508771929824561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. +"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.23636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.045454545454545456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. @@ -264,24 +264,24 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET) Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively. ",,3 -"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. +"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6116504854368932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3883495145631068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.37837837837837834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.18018018018018017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.17117117117117117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.12612612612612611,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.07207207207207207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.18518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.21296296296296297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.14814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.05555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.9158878504672896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.9065420560747662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. @@ -296,22 +296,22 @@ Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.16666666666666669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). +"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.33333333333333337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.1568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.33333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.16666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.11764705882352938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.039215686274509796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.039215686274509796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.029411764705882346,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.029411764705882346,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.029411764705882346,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.019607843137254898,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. +"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. +"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- @@ -326,13 +326,13 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. +"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8349514563106796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -344,41 +344,41 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4403669724770642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.11926605504587155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.07339449541284403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4326923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12499999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.08653846153846151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.08653846153846151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06730769230769229,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06730769230769229,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.048076923076923066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.03846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019230769230769225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6435643564356436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6470588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.11764705882352941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. +"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07207207207207207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.12612612612612611,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.2252252252252252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.2252252252252252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.18918918918918917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5742574257425742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.42574257425742573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.34313725490196073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5148514851485149,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.48514851485148514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.4727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.11818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.045454545454545456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.39639639639639634,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.18918918918918917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.09009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.07207207207207207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -394,7 +394,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. ",,3 -"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.11818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.23636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.15454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.06363636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. +"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. @@ -405,7 +405,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The ""next status report"" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.3272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.5636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.34513274336283184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.5309734513274336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.053097345132743355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. @@ -420,37 +420,37 @@ Created On: 03/08/2021 9:28 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. ",,3 -"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. +"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.22641509433962262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.2019230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.22115384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.16346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 House GOP nomination in any Illinois district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. +"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. +"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5740740740740741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.12037037037037036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.07407407407407407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5882352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.4220183486238532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.2110091743119266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.1559633027522936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.11926605504587155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. +"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.4205607476635514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.0594059405940594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2871287128712871,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.4059405940594059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. @@ -463,7 +463,7 @@ A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.7999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. +"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.8653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- @@ -472,33 +472,33 @@ Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008849557522123895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.008849557522123895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.01769911504424779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.03539823008849558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.09734513274336284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.168141592920354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1946902654867257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.18584070796460178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.1769911504424779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.10619469026548674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.12612612612612611,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18918918918918917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.2072072072072072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.2072072072072072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6037735849056604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.24528301886792453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.5809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.24761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.6057692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.15384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. +"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market. @@ -513,7 +513,7 @@ In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded ",,3 -"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. +"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ",,3 @@ -522,33 +522,41 @@ Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. +"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. +"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). +"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.3018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). +"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.11764705882352941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.24509803921568626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. +"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) +",,3 +"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . +PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +",,3 +"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index a41012f..61b7861 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25,22 +25,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4380952380952381, + "probability": 0.4423076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5436893203883496, + "probability": 0.548076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45631067961165045, + "probability": 0.45192307692307687, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.594059405940594, + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4059405940594059, + "probability": 0.42574257425742573, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,47 +92,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.30275229357798167, + "probability": 0.2777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.6330275229357797, + "probability": 0.6574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.00925925925925926, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,12 +146,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -184,12 +184,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -203,12 +203,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -241,12 +241,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8921568627450981, + "probability": 0.900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "probability": 0.09900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -260,12 +260,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.8910891089108911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -279,72 +279,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4568965517241379, + "probability": 0.44067796610169485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.24999999999999994, + "probability": 0.22881355932203387, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.08620689655172413, + "probability": 0.09322033898305083, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06896551724137931, + "probability": 0.07627118644067796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, + "probability": 0.0423728813559322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.025423728813559317, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.025423728813559317, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dianne Morales", + "probability": 0.016949152542372878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -396,12 +396,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -453,12 +453,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6019417475728155, + "probability": 0.6078431372549019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39805825242718446, + "probability": 0.39215686274509803, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -472,12 +472,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -491,12 +491,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -510,12 +510,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -578,12 +578,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -597,12 +597,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7722772277227723, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.22772277227722773, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -621,12 +621,12 @@ }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -645,12 +645,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -664,52 +664,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.00869565217391304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.01739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.17757009345794392, + "probability": 0.1478260869565217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.3644859813084112, + "probability": 0.3478260869565217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.28695652173913033, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.12173913043478259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "probability": 0.01739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.026086956521739122, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.01739130434782608, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.00869565217391304, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -723,12 +723,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -742,82 +742,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.45535714285714285, + "probability": 0.45631067961165034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.33928571428571425, + "probability": 0.320388349514563, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.044642857142857144, + "probability": 0.04854368932038834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -831,37 +831,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.5384615384615385, + "probability": 0.5188679245283019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.23076923076923075, + "probability": 0.22641509433962262, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.125, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.07692307692307693, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -894,82 +894,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.2363636363636363, + "probability": 0.24074074074074067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.13636363636363633, + "probability": 0.1481481481481481, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10185185185185182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09090909090909088, + "probability": 0.09259259259259257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05454545454545453, + "probability": 0.05555555555555554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.05454545454545453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.04545454545454544, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "probability": 0.05555555555555554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marco Rubio", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "name": "Tim Scott", + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018181818181818177, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -983,12 +983,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1002,17 +1002,17 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "name": "Hillary Clinton", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernie Sanders", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -1027,37 +1027,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.14423076923076922, + "probability": 0.13761467889908255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.22115384615384615, + "probability": 0.2660550458715596, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.3269230769230769, + "probability": 0.3211009174311926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.19230769230769232, + "probability": 0.17431192660550457, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1071,37 +1071,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.4857142857142857, + "probability": 0.49038461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24761904761904763, + "probability": 0.24038461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1153,12 +1153,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1210,12 +1210,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1229,12 +1229,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.7722772277227723, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22772277227722773, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1248,67 +1248,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.39215686274509803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.29411764705882354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1322,12 +1322,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1341,12 +1341,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1360,12 +1360,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1379,12 +1379,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1467,77 +1467,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.6434782608695652, + "probability": 0.6460176991150441, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.23478260869565215, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.23893805309734512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gary Chambers", + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1551,52 +1551,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8857142857142857, + "probability": 0.8867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1610,12 +1610,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1629,52 +1629,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5438596491228069, + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.24561403508771928, + "probability": 0.23636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09649122807017543, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "probability": 0.09999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "probability": 0.045454545454545456, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "name": "Suga Yoshihide", + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xi Jinping", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Moon Jae-in", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1688,12 +1688,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1707,12 +1707,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6116504854368932, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.3883495145631068, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1726,52 +1726,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.37837837837837834, + "probability": 0.18518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.18018018018018017, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.17117117117117117, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.12612612612612611, + "probability": 0.18518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "probability": 0.14814814814814814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, + "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1785,12 +1785,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 53", - "probability": 0.9158878504672896, + "probability": 0.9065420560747662, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1849,21 +1849,21 @@ }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3235294117647059, + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.16666666666666669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "probability": 0.1568627450980392, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eliza Orlins", "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -1898,52 +1898,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.33333333333333326, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.16666666666666663, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.11764705882352938, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.039215686274509796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.039215686274509796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", + "probability": 0.029411764705882346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.029411764705882346, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", + "probability": 0.029411764705882346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.019607843137254898, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1957,12 +1957,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2016,17 +2016,17 @@ }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2043,58 +2043,58 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Jon Sallet", + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Terrell McSweeny", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Leibowitz", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Gelfand", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steven Sunshine", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Davies", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -2109,17 +2109,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.8349514563106796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.1553398058252427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2192,52 +2192,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4403669724770642, + "probability": 0.4326923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.11926605504587155, + "probability": 0.12499999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "probability": 0.08653846153846151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "probability": 0.08653846153846151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, + "probability": 0.06730769230769229, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.06730769230769229, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "probability": 0.048076923076923066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.03846153846153845, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.028846153846153837, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.019230769230769225, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2256,7 +2256,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2285,32 +2285,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6435643564356436, + "probability": 0.6470588235294118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2324,52 +2324,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "probability": 0.12612612612612611, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.2252252252252252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.2252252252252252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.10891089108910891, + "probability": 0.18918918918918917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.05405405405405405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2388,7 +2388,12 @@ }, { "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2396,14 +2401,9 @@ "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2417,12 +2417,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.42574257425742573, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2436,12 +2436,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.6568627450980392, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.34313725490196073, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2455,12 +2455,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.5148514851485149, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48514851485148514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2474,62 +2474,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.4727272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.11818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.09999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.054545454545454536, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.045454545454545456, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.03636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.39639639639639634, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.18918918918918917, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ann O'Leary", + "probability": 0.09009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bianchi", + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2562,52 +2562,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.11818181818181818, + "probability": 0.13084112149532712, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1M to 1.05M", - "probability": 0.23636363636363636, + "probability": 0.2336448598130841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.24545454545454545, + "probability": 0.24299065420560748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.15454545454545454, + "probability": 0.14953271028037382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.15M to 1.2M", - "probability": 0.09090909090909091, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.2M to 1.25M", - "probability": 0.06363636363636364, + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.25M to 1.3M", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.4M or more", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2621,52 +2621,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", - "probability": 0.3272727272727272, + "probability": 0.34513274336283184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.5636363636363636, + "probability": 0.5309734513274336, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.03636363636363636, + "probability": 0.053097345132743355, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 or more", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2680,32 +2680,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Darrell Steinberg", + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Goodwin Liu", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2717,6 +2707,16 @@ "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Rosen", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Diana Becton", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", @@ -2729,52 +2729,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.20754716981132074, + "probability": 0.2019230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.22641509433962262, + "probability": 0.22115384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.1509433962264151, + "probability": 0.16346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2782,8 +2782,8 @@ "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 House GOP nomination in any Illinois district?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-district", + "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { @@ -2807,12 +2807,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2826,52 +2826,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5740740740740741, + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.12037037037037036, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.07407407407407407, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2885,62 +2885,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.4220183486238532, + "probability": 0.4205607476635514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.2110091743119266, + "probability": 0.18691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.11926605504587155, + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2954,52 +2954,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.0594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.2871287128712871, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4059405940594059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3052,37 +3052,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "11 or 12", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13 or 14", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15 or 16", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17 or 18", - "probability": 0.7999999999999999, + "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19 or 20", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21 or 22", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3096,52 +3096,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.008849557522123895, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.008849557522123895, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.01769911504424779, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.03539823008849558, + "probability": 0.036036036036036036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.09734513274336284, + "probability": 0.12612612612612611, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.168141592920354, + "probability": 0.18918918918918917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.1946902654867257, + "probability": 0.2072072072072072, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.18584070796460178, + "probability": 0.2072072072072072, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.1769911504424779, + "probability": 0.14414414414414414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.10619469026548674, + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3155,47 +3155,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.6037735849056604, + "probability": 0.5809523809523809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.24528301886792453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.24761904761904763, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.07619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "name": "Brian Harrison", + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lydia Bean", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3209,17 +3209,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3243,32 +3243,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rahm Emanuel", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.6057692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rahm Emanuel", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3282,27 +3282,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Geoff Duncan", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Carr", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kelly Loeffler", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Carr", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3326,12 +3326,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3341,7 +3341,7 @@ }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3355,12 +3355,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3391,29 +3391,29 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Ann Wagner", + "name": "Jason Smith", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Ann Wagner", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3427,12 +3427,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Carl Edwards", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Carl Edwards", + "name": "Roy Blunt", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -3447,12 +3447,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3462,23 +3462,23 @@ }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Forest", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Dan Forest", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Meadows", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", @@ -3491,12 +3491,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3510,12 +3510,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3529,22 +3529,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "39", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3559,7 +3559,7 @@ }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3573,52 +3573,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.3018867924528302, + "probability": 0.24509803921568626, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3632,16 +3632,54 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Tishaura Jones", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cara Spencer", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.csv b/data/smarkets-questions.csv index b83671b..b9f5a49 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.csv +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.csv @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 +"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03712990645192401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009644131545954288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025364065965859772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.026810685697752915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10714630147555212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.0643263574115151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06220464847140515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005400713665734401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08033561577779921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07416337158838847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03857652618381715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.01379110811071463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030089690423377377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.022953033079371202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009644131545954287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2967499276690134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 "Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",,2 "Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005923437361860137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.019184864291397753,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05702413579701176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3810450004420476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.049155689152152765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.03536380514543365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02758376801343825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.38776412341968,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.03403766245247989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002917513924498276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]","",,2 "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.09840810419681621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8911515402108745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",,2 -"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.014837895986349133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007789895392833295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08828548111877735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.14266636990874693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.01060909563023963,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.02470509681727131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.041249350842050586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.02470509681727131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.01609911714518881,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.021811707099933225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.041249350842050586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020624675421025293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.01609911714518881,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028562949773722084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.0674382372579568,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.037094739965872835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03531419244751094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03531419244751094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.04495882483863787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007418947993174566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.05497440462942354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.21819126047926402,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 +"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.014930944382232175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007838745800671891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08883911907428144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.14356103023516237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010675625233296003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.024860022396416572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.041508025382605444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.024860022396416572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.016200074654721907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.021948488241881295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.041508025382605444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020754012691302722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.016200074654721907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028742067935796936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06786114221724523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.03732736095558044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03553564762971257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03553564762971257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.045240761478163485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007465472191116087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.05531914893617021,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2132885405001866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 "NY-22 Congressional District Winner","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6297324817180413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3702675182819587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.",,2 "Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04392129304286718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06271960646521434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.08784258608573436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.18692902319044274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6185874912157414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ "Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request.",,2 "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2934948492941626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7065051507058375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",,2 -"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.851190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10270219198790626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03259637188208617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.013510959939531365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8477819657871846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10505460519957474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03334299797042621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01382043104281434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5378460406511542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18035500781752964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.047181090775314995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.06566724914926883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.03540881081578221,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04598546859192495,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.04377816609951255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.04377816609951255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 "Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.241490404818602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.10379604986692814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10771816781061774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.07185880375402717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.07003782042302843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14595881776159125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.06093290376803474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.07367978708502591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04664518840173694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? @@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9407146451937592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.026472068444891795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00010065425264217412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010065425264217412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.03140412682435833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00010065425264217412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00010065425264217412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0010065425264217413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28001209555488354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7199879044451164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6451702186548575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.3548297813451425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7529869408168935,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24701305918310643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.915064401717379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.01437371663244353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01866716445771887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05189471719245845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5932000683410217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.40679993165897826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",,2 @@ -40,29 +40,29 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2 "Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6512014065247119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3487985934752882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.4391107613614007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.30739720637418844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24906551249262243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.004426519771788313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6394590446959524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36054095530404756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Japanese general election take place?",,2 "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5288406624785836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4711593375214163,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,2 "2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3583343785275304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3743885613947071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05230151762197416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08365734353442869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04640662235043271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06271165182490906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020945691709519626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012542330364981814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 "2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29622716971070523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022263698173576853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.031729102786295156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06345820557259031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028929476069857348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.055592587654979334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1586455139314758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026663111585121982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05799226769764031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0833222237035062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04599386748433542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10251966404479403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 "2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",,2 -"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8487046632124352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.02044276966556759,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.07847385774846914,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05237870937352802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 +"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8450626381724391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.019988946204863668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.08373249815770081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05121591746499631,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13046653884780424,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8695334611521957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts available on request.",,2 "London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",,2 "How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.1314345193035579,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3309046177138531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5376608629825889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,2 -"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.5001237725884974,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.27056687845531807,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1375526033501114,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04587837280303655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04587837280303655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,2 +"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.47996515679442503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.29996832435856824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.13200823566677225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04402914159011719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04402914159011719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,2 "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",,2 "2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37488097505237095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.38706912968958296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.2380498952580461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 "2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.14137901789500468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.2019336782291578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.27809346111440925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.37859384276142816,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 -"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.3223032342493924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.16694709291456347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5107496728360442,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,2 +"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.31493905319852594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.1687612208258528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5162997259756212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,2 "Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",,2 "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.7204754278007249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12045856865885526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.03371828373935767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10284076540504088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.014077383461181826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.008429570934839417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,2 -"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.0283973989628776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.1646226026833484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.49888879743188735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.18709358794962547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.10832167256564326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012675940406617828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2 +"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.027048216385731086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.15680125441003526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5226969815758525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.1782046256370051,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.10317522540180321,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012073696589572715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2 "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37464865354973254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6253513464502675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 "Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 @@ -87,27 +87,27 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "2021 Dutch election: Most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)"",""probability"":0.9792249300838993,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""PVV (Party for Freedom)"",""probability"":0.020775069916100678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06661340257665035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333865974233496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",,2 -"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.15643338880616622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.20854865551370758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.26145222037312776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.2367522116142594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.13681352369273886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 +"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0828492524521474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.2267403104466241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.284258642034092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.25740405675649936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.14874773831063706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 "2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 "Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?",,2 "Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?",,2 "Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 -"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.5994000999833361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.4005999000166639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 +"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.47222969941677884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5277703005832212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 "Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Dumfriesshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5926263916773133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.40737360832268665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "East Lothian","https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6236568930977964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3034966308504826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.072846476051721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Eastwood","https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1221629442083371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 -"Edinburgh Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6831238779174147,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.18821065230400957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.06433273488928785,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.06433273488928785,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Edinburgh Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6591573192572344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.21924780846451125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.06079743613912715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.06079743613912715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Edinburgh Southern","https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5527840059790732,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33604260089686094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.11117339312406577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Edinburgh Western","https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 -"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8685577307231322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.13144226927686778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8743213352101347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.12567866478986528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?",,2 -"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.3659714952894758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.6340285047105242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?",,2 +"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.17962075432381747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8203792456761826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?",,2 "Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.668265240247164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33173475975283595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 @@ -116,9 +116,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6165456089048204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3834543910951797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6760837347165617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3239162652834383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 -"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1816695431010991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8183304568989009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?",,2 +"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1803263907672888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8196736092327112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?",,2 "Aberconwy","https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 -"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Brecon and Radnorshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Caerphilly","https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Cardiff Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 @@ -130,5 +130,5 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Llanelli","https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Preseli Pembrokeshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Vale of Clwyd","https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 -"Vale of Glamorgan","https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Vale of Glamorgan","https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Wrexham","https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index 71770e7..924af81 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -6,27 +6,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.03746229444390386, + "probability": 0.03712990645192401, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.0009730466089325679, + "probability": 0.0009644131545954288, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025591125814926532, + "probability": 0.025364065965859772, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.027050695728325382, + "probability": 0.026810685697752915, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.10810547825240828, + "probability": 0.10714630147555212, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -36,22 +36,22 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.06490220881580228, + "probability": 0.0643263574115151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Tugendhat", - "probability": 0.06276150627615062, + "probability": 0.06220464847140515, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.05264182154325192, + "probability": 0.05217475166361269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.00544906101002238, + "probability": 0.005400713665734401, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61,27 +61,27 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.0810547825240829, + "probability": 0.08033561577779921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Hancock", - "probability": 0.05264182154325192, + "probability": 0.05217475166361269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.07482728422691447, + "probability": 0.07416337158838847, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.03892186435730271, + "probability": 0.03857652618381715, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.013914566507735718, + "probability": 0.01379110811071463, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -96,17 +96,17 @@ }, { "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.030359054198696115, + "probability": 0.030089690423377377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.023158509292595112, + "probability": 0.022953033079371202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Esther McVey", - "probability": 0.009730466089325677, + "probability": 0.009644131545954287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.2904544127663715, + "probability": 0.2967499276690134, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -387,32 +387,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.014837895986349133, + "probability": 0.014930944382232175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.007789895392833295, + "probability": 0.007838745800671891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.08828548111877735, + "probability": 0.08883911907428144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.14266636990874693, + "probability": 0.14356103023516237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.01060909563023963, + "probability": 0.010675625233296003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.02470509681727131, + "probability": 0.024860022396416572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -422,7 +422,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.041249350842050586, + "probability": 0.041508025382605444, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -432,17 +432,17 @@ }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.02470509681727131, + "probability": 0.024860022396416572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.01609911714518881, + "probability": 0.016200074654721907, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.021811707099933225, + "probability": 0.021948488241881295, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -457,7 +457,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.041249350842050586, + "probability": 0.041508025382605444, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -467,17 +467,17 @@ }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.020624675421025293, + "probability": 0.020754012691302722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Watson", - "probability": 0.01609911714518881, + "probability": 0.016200074654721907, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.028562949773722084, + "probability": 0.028742067935796936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -497,7 +497,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.0674382372579568, + "probability": 0.06786114221724523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -507,17 +507,17 @@ }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.037094739965872835, + "probability": 0.03732736095558044, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.03531419244751094, + "probability": 0.03553564762971257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.03531419244751094, + "probability": 0.03553564762971257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -527,22 +527,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ken Clarke", - "probability": 0.04495882483863787, + "probability": 0.045240761478163485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harriet Harman", - "probability": 0.007418947993174566, + "probability": 0.007465472191116087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Beckett", - "probability": 0.05497440462942354, + "probability": 0.05531914893617021, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.21819126047926402, + "probability": 0.2132885405001866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -838,22 +838,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.851190476190476, + "probability": 0.8477819657871846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.10270219198790626, + "probability": 0.10505460519957474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.03259637188208617, + "probability": 0.03334299797042621, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013510959939531365, + "probability": 0.01382043104281434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1369,12 +1369,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ben Houchen", - "probability": 0.7529869408168935, + "probability": 0.7560150032019028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs", - "probability": 0.24701305918310643, + "probability": 0.24398499679809715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1865,12 +1865,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6512014065247119, + "probability": 0.6394590446959524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3487985934752882, + "probability": 0.36054095530404756, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1884,22 +1884,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "No overall majority", - "probability": 0.4391107613614007, + "probability": 0.42750430951924917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative majority", - "probability": 0.30739720637418844, + "probability": 0.32570388814403367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour majority", - "probability": 0.24906551249262243, + "probability": 0.24248228308753111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrat majority", - "probability": 0.004426519771788313, + "probability": 0.0043095192491859795, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2317,12 +2317,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8487046632124352, + "probability": 0.8450626381724391, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.02044276966556759, + "probability": 0.019988946204863668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2337,12 +2337,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.07847385774846914, + "probability": 0.08373249815770081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.05237870937352802, + "probability": 0.05121591746499631, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2437,27 +2437,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative (Høyre)", - "probability": 0.5001237725884974, + "probability": 0.47996515679442503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)", - "probability": 0.27056687845531807, + "probability": 0.29996832435856824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)", - "probability": 0.1375526033501114, + "probability": 0.13200823566677225, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)", - "probability": 0.04587837280303655, + "probability": 0.04402914159011719, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)", - "probability": 0.04587837280303655, + "probability": 0.04402914159011719, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2548,17 +2548,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GroenLinks", - "probability": 0.3223032342493924, + "probability": 0.31493905319852594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)", - "probability": 0.16694709291456347, + "probability": 0.1687612208258528, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)", - "probability": 0.5107496728360442, + "probability": 0.5162997259756212, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2668,32 +2668,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 45%", - "probability": 0.0283973989628776, + "probability": 0.027048216385731086, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45–49.9%", - "probability": 0.1646226026833484, + "probability": 0.15680125441003526, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50–54.9%", - "probability": 0.49888879743188735, + "probability": 0.5226969815758525, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55–59.9%", - "probability": 0.18709358794962547, + "probability": 0.1782046256370051, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60–64.9%", - "probability": 0.10832167256564326, + "probability": 0.10317522540180321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65% or over", - "probability": 0.012675940406617828, + "probability": 0.012073696589572715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3243,27 +3243,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "26 or fewer", - "probability": 0.15643338880616622, + "probability": 0.0828492524521474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27–28", - "probability": 0.20854865551370758, + "probability": 0.2267403104466241, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29–30", - "probability": 0.26145222037312776, + "probability": 0.284258642034092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "31–32", - "probability": 0.2367522116142594, + "probability": 0.25740405675649936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "33 or more", - "probability": 0.13681352369273886, + "probability": 0.14874773831063706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3398,12 +3398,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.5994000999833361, + "probability": 0.47222969941677884, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.4005999000166639, + "probability": 0.5277703005832212, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3541,22 +3541,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6831238779174147, + "probability": 0.6591573192572344, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.18821065230400957, + "probability": 0.21924780846451125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.06433273488928785, + "probability": 0.06079743613912715, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scottish Green", - "probability": 0.06433273488928785, + "probability": 0.06079743613912715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3675,12 +3675,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.8685577307231322, + "probability": 0.8743213352101347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.13144226927686778, + "probability": 0.12567866478986528, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3713,12 +3713,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.3659714952894758, + "probability": 0.17962075432381747, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.6340285047105242, + "probability": 0.8203792456761826, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3884,12 +3884,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1816695431010991, + "probability": 0.1803263907672888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8183304568989009, + "probability": 0.8196736092327112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3927,12 +3927,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": null, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4170,12 +4170,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": null, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.csv b/data/williamhill-questions.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0db2eb7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.csv @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" +"Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4444444444444444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5555555555555556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Permanent Labour Leader After Keir Starmer","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.09477301888931079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy 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"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0", "json2csv": "^5.0.5", "open": "^7.3.1", "papaparse": "^5.3.0", diff --git a/src/betfair-fetch.js b/src/betfair-fetch.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a91af0c --- /dev/null +++ b/src/betfair-fetch.js @@ -0,0 +1,132 @@ +/* Imports */ +import axios from "axios" +import fetch from "isomorphic-fetch" +import fs from "fs" +import https from "https" +import { calculateStars } from "./stars.js" + +/* Definitions */ +let restEndpoint = "https://api.betfair.com/exchange/betting/rest/v1.0/" +let loginEndpoint = "https://identitysso-cert.betfair.es/api/certlogin/" +let sessionToken="kSSpkmq+tYq0KrHU0WsLNLBodGqh3QTg8Dhp50H36a0=" + +const httpsAgent = new https.Agent({ + cert: fs.readFileSync('src/client-2048.crt'), + key: fs.readFileSync('src/client-2048.key'), +}); + +/* Support functions */ +function getcookie() { + try { + let rawcookie = fs.readFileSync("./src/privatekeys.json") + let cookie = JSON.parse(rawcookie).betfair + if (cookie == undefined) { + throw new Error('No cookie for Betfair!'); + } + return cookie + } catch (error) { + console.log("Error: No cookies for Betfair on src/privatekeys.json! See the README.md") + process.exit() + } +} + +async function fetchLogin() { + let cookie = getcookie() + console.log(cookie) + let data = `username=${cookie["username"]}&password=${cookie["password"]}` + let response = await axios({ + url: loginEndpoint, + method: 'POST', + headers: ({ + 'Content-Type': 'application/x-www-form-urlencoded', + 'X-Application': cookie["key-1.0-DELAY"] + }), + data: JSON.stringify(data), + httpsAgent: httpsAgent + }) + .then(res => res.data) + //console.log(response) + return response +} + +async function fetchRest(method="listEventTypes/"){ + let cookie = getcookie() + let data = { + "filter" : { } +} + let response = await fetch(restEndpoint+method, ({ + method: 'POST', + headers: ({ + 'Content-Type': 'application/json', + 'X-Application': cookie["key-1.0-DELAY"], + "X-Authentication": sessionToken + }), + body: JSON.stringify(data) + })) + .then(res => res.json()) + + return response + /* + let response = await axios({ + url: restEndpoint+method, + method: 'POST', + headers: ({ + 'Content-Type': 'application/x-www-form-urlencoded', + 'X-Application': cookie["key-1.0-DELAY"], + "X-Authentication": "gikChnxyORcDwVWwEqnIfNmrmjILiIyf2G4mOP/tGXQ=" + }), + data: JSON.stringify(data), + httpsAgent: httpsAgent + }) + .then(res => res.data) + //console.log(response) + return response +*/ + +} + +async function fetchRCP(method="listEventTypes/"){ + let cookie = getcookie() + let data = + [ + { + "jsonrpc": "2.0", + "method": "SportsAPING/v1.0/listEventTypes", + "params": { + "filter": {} + }, + "id": 1 + } +] + let response = await fetch(restEndpoint+method, ({ + method: 'POST', + headers: ({ + 'Content-Type': 'application/json', + 'X-Application': cookie["key-1.0-DELAY"], + "X-Authentication": sessionToken + }), + body: JSON.stringify(data) + })) + .then(res => res.json()) + + return response +} + +/* Body */ +export async function betfair() { + let results = [] + //let login = await fetchLogin() + //console.log(login) + + let example = await fetchRest() + console.log(example) + // let example = await fetchRCP() + // console.log(example) + + + console.log(results) + let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2) + fs.writeFileSync('./data/betfair-questions.json', string); + console.log("Done") +} +betfair() diff --git a/src/index.js b/src/index.js index 6be693d..7228fba 100644 --- a/src/index.js +++ b/src/index.js @@ -8,18 +8,20 @@ import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js" import {foretold} from "./foretold-fetch.js" import {goodjudgment} from "./goodjudgment-fetch.js" import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js" +import {ladbrokes} from "./ladbrokes-fetch.js" import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js" import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js" import {predictit} from "./predictit-fetch.js" import {omen} from "./omen-fetch.js" import {hypermind} from "./hypermind-fetch.js" import {smarkets} from "./smarkets-fetch.js" +import {williamhill} from "./williamhill-fetch.js" /* Definitions */ let opts = {} let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]}); //let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv); -let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets"] +let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets", "williamhill", "ladbrokes"] let suffix = "-questions" let locationData = "./data/" let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms)); @@ -88,30 +90,37 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => { hypermind() break; case 7: - metaculus() + ladbrokes() break; case 8: - omen() + metaculus() break; case 9: + omen() + break; + case 10: polymarket() break; - case 10: + case 11: predictit() break; - case 11: + case 12: smarkets() break; - case 12: + case 13: + williamhill() + break; + case 14: coverttocsvandmerge() break; - case 13: + case 15: await csetforetell() await elicit() //await foretold() await goodjudgment() await goodjudgmentopen() await hypermind() + await ladbrokes() await metaculus() await omen() await polymarket() @@ -133,13 +142,15 @@ let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do? [4]: Download predictions from goodjudgment [5]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen [6]: Download predictions from hypermind -[7]: Download predictions from metaculus -[8]: Download predictions from omen -[9]: Download predictions from polymarket -[10]: Download predictions from predictit -[11]: Download predictions from smarkets -[12]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps) -[13]: All of the above +[7]: Download predictions from ladbrokes +[8]: Download predictions from metaculus +[9]: Download predictions from omen +[10]: Download predictions from polymarket +[11]: Download predictions from predictit +[12]: Download predictions from smarkets +[13]: Download predictions from William Hill +[14]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps) +[15]: All of the above Choose one option, wisely: #` whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption) diff --git a/src/ladbrokes-fetch.js b/src/ladbrokes-fetch.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7882c09 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/ladbrokes-fetch.js @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +/* Imports */ +import axios from "axios" +import fs from "fs" +import { calculateStars } from "./stars.js" + +/* Definitions */ +let endpointPolitics = `https://ss-aka-ori.ladbrokes.com/openbet-ssviewer/Drilldown/2.31/EventToOutcomeForClass/302,301,300?simpleFilter=event.siteChannels:contains:M&simpleFilter=event.eventSortCode:intersects:TNMT,TR01,TR02,TR03,TR04,TR05,TR06,TR07,TR08,TR09,TR10,TR11,TR12,TR13,TR14,TR15,TR16,TR17,TR18,TR19,TR20&simpleFilter=event.suspendAtTime:greaterThan:${new Date().toISOString()}.000Z&limitRecords=outcome:1&limitRecords=market:1&translationLang=en&responseFormat=json&prune=event&prune=market` +let enpointDrillDown = (id) => `https://ss-aka-ori.ladbrokes.com/openbet-ssviewer/Drilldown/2.31/EventToOutcomeForEvent/${id}?&translationLang=en&responseFormat=json` + +//
    response.data) + return response + +} + +let processResults = async (json) => { + let results = [] + let children = json.SSResponse.children + children.pop() + let ids = children.map(child => child.event.id) + let markets = [] + for(let id of ids){ + let marketsContainer = await fetchUrl(enpointDrillDown(id)) + let marketsObj = marketsContainer.SSResponse.children[0].event + let newMarkets = marketsObj.children + newMarkets = newMarkets.map(market => ({...market.market, parent: marketsObj.name})) + markets.push(...newMarkets) + } + let normalMarkets = markets.filter(market => !market.name.includes("Specials")) + //console.log(normalMarkets) + + for(let normalMarket of normalMarkets){ + let title = normalMarket.parent + ": " + normalMarket.name + let options = normalMarket.children.map(child => { + let name = child.outcome.name + name = name.replace("Boris Johnson Specials", "Boris Johnson") // small kludge + let priceData = child.outcome.children[0].price + let priceDecimal = Number(priceData.priceDec) + let probability = 1/priceDecimal + let option = ({ + "name":name, + "probability": probability, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + + }) + return option + }) + // normalize probabilities + let totalValue = options + .map(element => Number(element.probability)) + .reduce((a, b) => (a + b), 0) + options = options.map(element => ({ + ...element, + probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue + })) + + // Filter very unlikely probabilities + options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02) + + let obj = ({ + "title": title, + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "Ladbrokes", + "options": options, + "stars": calculateStars("Ladbrokes", ({})) + }) + results.push(obj) + } + + + let specialMarkets = markets.filter(market => market.name.includes("Specials")) + for(let specialMarket of specialMarkets){ + //let title = specialMarket.parent + ": " + specialMarket.name + //console.log(title) + specialMarket.children.forEach(child => { + let name = specialMarket.parent.includes("Specials")? child.outcome.name : specialMarket.parent + ": " + child.outcome.name + let priceData = child.outcome.children[0].price + let priceDecimal = Number(priceData.priceDec) + let probability = 1/priceDecimal + let obj = ({ + "title": name, + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/", + "platform": "LadBrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": probability, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1 - probability, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": calculateStars("Ladbrokes", ({})) + }) + results.push(obj) + }) + } + return results +} + +/* Body */ +export async function ladbrokes() { + let response = await fetchUrl(endpointPolitics) + let results = await processResults(response) + console.log(results) + let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2) + fs.writeFileSync('./data/ladbrokes-questions.json', string); + console.log("Done") +} +//ladbrokes() diff --git a/src/stars.js b/src/stars.js index 5ee5d0c..e79640e 100644 --- a/src/stars.js +++ b/src/stars.js @@ -90,6 +90,15 @@ function calculateStarsHypermind(data) { return starsInteger } +function calculateStarsLadbrokes(data) { + let nuno = data => 2 + let eli = (data) => null + let misha = (data) => null + let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)]) + let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal) + return starsInteger +} + function calculateStarsMetaculus(data) { let nuno = data => data.numforecasts > 300 ? 4 : (data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2) let eli = (data) => 3 @@ -135,6 +144,15 @@ function calculateStarsSmarkets(data) { return starsInteger } +function calculateStarsWilliamHill(data) { + let nuno = data => 2 + let eli = (data) => null + let misha = (data) => null + let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)]) + let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal) + return starsInteger +} + export function calculateStars(platform, data) { let stars = 2; switch (platform) { @@ -159,6 +177,9 @@ export function calculateStars(platform, data) { case "Hypermind": stars = calculateStarsHypermind(data) break; + case "Hypermind": + stars = calculateStarsLadbrokes(data) + break; case "Metaculus": stars = calculateStarsMetaculus(data) break; @@ -174,6 +195,9 @@ export function calculateStars(platform, data) { case "Smarkets": stars = calculateStarsSmarkets(data) break; + case "WilliamHill": + calculateStarsWilliamHill(data) + break; default: stars = 2 } diff --git a/src/williamhill-fetch.js b/src/williamhill-fetch.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a668fc0 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/williamhill-fetch.js @@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ +/* Imports */ +import axios from "axios" +import fs from "fs" +import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js" +import { calculateStars } from "./stars.js" + +/* Definitions */ +let endpoint = "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics" + +//
    response.data) + return response + +} + +let processResults = (html) => { + let results = [] + + let chunks = html.split('

    ') + kamalamarkets.shift() + for(let kamalamarket of kamalamarkets){ + let title = kamalamarket.split('')[0] + let numerator = Number(kamalamarket.split('data-num="')[1].split('"')[0]) + let denominator = Number(kamalamarket.split('data-denom="')[1].split('"')[0]) + let probability = denominator/(numerator+denominator) + let obj = ({ + "title": title, + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": probability, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1 - probability, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": calculateStars("WilliamHill", ({})) + }) + results.push(obj) + } + chunks.shift() + + // Deal with the other markets + for(let chunk of chunks){ + let title = chunk.split('"')[0] + let title2 = chunk.split(' title2.length ? title : title2 + + let options = [] + let alternatives = chunk.split('

    ') + alternatives.shift() + for(let alternative of alternatives){ + let optionName = alternative.split('')[0] + let numerator = Number(alternative.split('data-num="')[1].split('"')[0]) + let denominator = Number(alternative.split('data-denom="')[1].split('"')[0]) + let option = ({ + "name":optionName, + "probability": denominator/(numerator+denominator), + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }); + options.push(option) + } + + // normalize probabilities + let totalValue = options + .map(element => Number(element.probability)) + .reduce((a, b) => (a + b), 0) + options = options.map(element => ({ + ...element, + probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue + })) + // Filter very unlikely probabilities + options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02) + + let obj = ({ + "title": title, + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": options, + "stars": calculateStars("WilliamHill", ({})) + }) + results.push(obj) + } + + //console.log(results) + return results +} + +let processhtml2 = (html) => { + html.split() +} + +/* Body */ +export async function williamhill() { + let response = await fetchUrl("https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics") + let results = processResults(response) + let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2) + fs.writeFileSync('./data/williamhill-questions.json', string); + console.log("Done") +} +//williamhill()