diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index cd7773e..ab0bace 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -5,8 +5,8 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "21", - "# Forecasters": "21", + "# Forecasts": "23", + "# Forecasters": "23", "Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -16,20 +16,20 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "19", - "# Forecasters": "19", + "# Forecasts": "20", + "# Forecasters": "20", "Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?", + "Title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?", "URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022", "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "89", - "# Forecasters": "81", - "Description": "Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n", + "# Forecasts": "92", + "# Forecasters": "84", + "Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { @@ -82,8 +82,8 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "40", - "# Forecasters": "38", + "# Forecasts": "41", + "# Forecasters": "39", "Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\"  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -170,8 +170,8 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "75", - "# Forecasters": "59", + "# Forecasts": "76", + "# Forecasters": "60", "Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "61", + "# Forecasts": "62", "# Forecasters": "45", "Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -192,8 +192,8 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "163", - "# Forecasters": "141", + "# Forecasts": "164", + "# Forecasters": "142", "Description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", "Stars": "★★☆☆☆" }, @@ -203,7 +203,7 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "93", + "# Forecasts": "94", "# Forecasters": "87", "Description": "Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -214,8 +214,8 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "70%", - "# Forecasts": "145", - "# Forecasters": "113", + "# Forecasts": "146", + "# Forecasters": "114", "Description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n", "Stars": "★★☆☆☆" }, @@ -247,7 +247,7 @@ "Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Binary question?": false, "Percentage": "none", - "# Forecasts": "91", + "# Forecasts": "92", "# Forecasters": "67", "Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json index 8533035..c4eb05a 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.json +++ b/data/elicit-questions.json @@ -79,16 +79,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 77, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "34%", - "# Forecasts": 110, - "# Forecasters": 77, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -99,6 +89,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 77, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "34%", + "# Forecasts": 110, + "# Forecasters": 77, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -259,16 +259,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 54, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "32%", - "# Forecasts": 66, - "# Forecasters": 52, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -279,6 +269,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 52, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "32%", + "# Forecasts": 66, + "# Forecasters": 52, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -359,36 +359,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 30, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", - "# Forecasts": 47, - "# Forecasters": 28, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "3%", - "# Forecasts": 33, - "# Forecasters": 29, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "39%", - "# Forecasts": 31, - "# Forecasters": 29, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -399,16 +369,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 29, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "83%", - "# Forecasts": 40, - "# Forecasters": 29, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -420,12 +380,52 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "9%", + "Percentage": "3%", + "# Forecasts": 33, + "# Forecasters": 29, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "47%", + "# Forecasts": 47, + "# Forecasters": 28, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "39%", "# Forecasts": 31, + "# Forecasters": 29, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "83%", + "# Forecasts": 40, + "# Forecasters": 29, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "90%", + "# Forecasts": 33, "# Forecasters": 28, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -439,16 +439,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 28, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", - "# Forecasts": 34, - "# Forecasters": 28, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -460,12 +450,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "90%", - "# Forecasts": 33, + "Percentage": "47%", + "# Forecasts": 34, + "# Forecasters": 28, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "9%", + "# Forecasts": 31, "# Forecasters": 28, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -479,16 +479,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 27, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 38, - "# Forecasters": 26, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -500,12 +490,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "0%", - "# Forecasts": 26, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 38, "# Forecasters": 26, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -519,6 +509,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 26, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "0%", + "# Forecasts": 26, + "# Forecasters": 26, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -529,6 +529,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 25, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "47%", + "# Forecasts": 32, + "# Forecasters": 24, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -550,13 +560,13 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", - "# Forecasts": 32, - "# Forecasters": 24, + "Percentage": "35%", + "# Forecasts": 25, + "# Forecasters": 23, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { @@ -569,16 +579,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 23, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "59%", - "# Forecasts": 34, - "# Forecasters": 23, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -589,6 +589,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 23, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "59%", + "# Forecasts": 34, + "# Forecasters": 23, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -600,32 +610,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "35%", - "# Forecasts": 25, - "# Forecasters": 23, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "7%", - "# Forecasts": 24, - "# Forecasters": 22, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "62%", - "# Forecasts": 26, + "Percentage": "34%", + "# Forecasts": 33, "# Forecasters": 22, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -650,12 +640,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "34%", - "# Forecasts": 33, + "Percentage": "62%", + "# Forecasts": 26, + "# Forecasters": 22, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "7%", + "# Forecasts": 24, "# Forecasters": 22, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -669,16 +669,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 22, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "20%", - "# Forecasts": 29, - "# Forecasters": 21, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -689,16 +679,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 21, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "37%", - "# Forecasts": 24, - "# Forecasters": 21, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -709,16 +689,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 21, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "70%", - "# Forecasts": 21, - "# Forecasters": 21, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -729,6 +699,36 @@ "# Forecasters": 21, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "20%", + "# Forecasts": 29, + "# Forecasters": 21, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "37%", + "# Forecasts": 24, + "# Forecasters": 21, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "70%", + "# Forecasts": 21, + "# Forecasters": 21, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -739,26 +739,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 21, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "12%", - "# Forecasts": 22, - "# Forecasters": 20, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "15%", - "# Forecasts": 21, - "# Forecasters": 20, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -769,6 +749,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 20, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "22%", + "# Forecasts": 22, + "# Forecasters": 20, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -789,6 +779,26 @@ "# Forecasters": 20, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "12%", + "# Forecasts": 22, + "# Forecasters": 20, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "# Forecasts": 21, + "# Forecasters": 20, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -799,16 +809,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 20, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "22%", - "# Forecasts": 22, - "# Forecasters": 20, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -819,16 +819,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 20, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "48%", - "# Forecasts": 20, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -839,16 +829,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 19, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "17%", - "# Forecasts": 20, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -859,6 +839,76 @@ "# Forecasters": 19, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "17%", + "# Forecasts": 20, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "48%", + "# Forecasts": 20, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "57%", + "# Forecasts": 35, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "36%", + "# Forecasts": 21, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "40%", + "# Forecasts": 35, + "# Forecasters": 18, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "54%", + "# Forecasts": 20, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "2%", + "# Forecasts": 19, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -870,11 +920,31 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "36%", + "Percentage": "47%", + "# Forecasts": 21, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "87%", + "# Forecasts": 24, + "# Forecasters": 19, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "10%", "# Forecasts": 21, "# Forecasters": 19, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -889,36 +959,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 19, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "87%", - "# Forecasts": 24, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "57%", - "# Forecasts": 35, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "10%", - "# Forecasts": 21, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -929,46 +969,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 19, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "54%", - "# Forecasts": 20, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "40%", - "# Forecasts": 35, - "# Forecasters": 18, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "2%", - "# Forecasts": 19, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", - "# Forecasts": 21, - "# Forecasters": 19, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -980,12 +980,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "3%", - "# Forecasts": 22, + "Percentage": "65%", + "# Forecasts": 40, "# Forecasters": 18, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1000,12 +1000,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "65%", - "# Forecasts": 40, + "Percentage": "64%", + "# Forecasts": 18, + "# Forecasters": 18, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "3%", + "# Forecasts": 22, "# Forecasters": 18, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1029,16 +1039,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 18, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "64%", - "# Forecasts": 18, - "# Forecasters": 18, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1049,26 +1049,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 18, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "2%", - "# Forecasts": 18, - "# Forecasters": 17, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "1%", - "# Forecasts": 18, - "# Forecasters": 17, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1080,12 +1060,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "27%", - "# Forecasts": 19, + "Percentage": "14%", + "# Forecasts": 21, "# Forecasters": 17, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1110,15 +1090,35 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "69%", + "Percentage": "1%", "# Forecasts": 18, "# Forecasters": 17, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "27%", + "# Forecasts": 19, + "# Forecasters": 17, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "2%", + "# Forecasts": 25, + "# Forecasters": 17, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1130,21 +1130,31 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", + "Percentage": "31%", + "# Forecasts": 20, + "# Forecasters": 17, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "69%", "# Forecasts": 18, "# Forecasters": 17, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "14%", + "Percentage": "84%", "# Forecasts": 21, "# Forecasters": 17, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -1170,42 +1180,62 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "2%", - "# Forecasts": 25, - "# Forecasters": 17, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "84%", - "# Forecasts": 21, - "# Forecasters": 17, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "31%", - "# Forecasts": 20, - "# Forecasters": 17, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "58%", "# Forecasts": 18, + "# Forecasters": 17, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "8%", + "# Forecasts": 18, + "# Forecasters": 17, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "US presidents term limits abolished", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "2%", + "# Forecasts": 17, + "# Forecasters": 16, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "36%", + "# Forecasts": 19, + "# Forecasters": 16, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "5%", + "# Forecasts": 20, + "# Forecasters": 16, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "78%", + "# Forecasts": 17, "# Forecasters": 16, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1220,12 +1250,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "43%", - "# Forecasts": 18, + "Percentage": "8%", + "# Forecasts": 17, "# Forecasters": 16, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1239,6 +1269,16 @@ "# Forecasters": 16, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "19%", + "# Forecasts": 19, + "# Forecasters": 16, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1249,26 +1289,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 16, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "36%", - "# Forecasts": 19, - "# Forecasters": 16, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "US presidents term limits abolished", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "2%", - "# Forecasts": 17, - "# Forecasters": 16, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1280,82 +1300,52 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "78%", - "# Forecasts": 17, + "Percentage": "43%", + "# Forecasts": 18, "# Forecasters": 16, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", - "# Forecasts": 17, + "Percentage": "58%", + "# Forecasts": 18, "# Forecasters": 16, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "5%", - "# Forecasts": 20, - "# Forecasters": 16, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "19%", - "# Forecasts": 19, - "# Forecasters": 16, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "93%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 15, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "59%", + "Percentage": "14%", "# Forecasts": 25, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "57%", - "# Forecasts": 29, + "Percentage": "21%", + "# Forecasts": 16, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "43%", - "# Forecasts": 19, + "Percentage": "12%", + "# Forecasts": 16, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1370,32 +1360,42 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "74%", + "Percentage": "41%", "# Forecasts": 17, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "28%", - "# Forecasts": 20, + "Percentage": "93%", + "# Forecasts": 16, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "4%", - "# Forecasts": 17, + "Percentage": "57%", + "# Forecasts": 29, + "# Forecasters": 15, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "59%", + "# Forecasts": 25, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1409,6 +1409,26 @@ "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "93%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 15, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "74%", + "# Forecasts": 17, + "# Forecasters": 15, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1430,42 +1450,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "21%", - "# Forecasts": 16, + "Percentage": "28%", + "# Forecasts": 20, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "93%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 15, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "14%", - "# Forecasts": 25, - "# Forecasters": 15, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "41%", - "# Forecasts": 17, + "Percentage": "43%", + "# Forecasts": 19, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1480,12 +1480,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "12%", - "# Forecasts": 16, + "Percentage": "4%", + "# Forecasts": 17, "# Forecasters": 15, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1500,22 +1500,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "17%", + "Percentage": "9%", "# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", - "# Forecasts": 14, + "Percentage": "10%", + "# Forecasts": 20, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1530,22 +1530,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "6%", - "# Forecasts": 17, + "Percentage": "30%", + "# Forecasts": 19, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "12%", - "# Forecasts": 15, + "Percentage": "7%", + "# Forecasts": 18, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1560,22 +1560,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", - "# Forecasts": 18, - "# Forecasters": 14, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "30%", - "# Forecasts": 19, + "Percentage": "17%", + "# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1590,12 +1580,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "17%", - "# Forecasts": 18, + "Percentage": "28%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 14, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "12%", + "# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1610,12 +1610,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "10%", - "# Forecasts": 20, + "Percentage": "6%", + "# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1650,125 +1650,45 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "7%", + "Percentage": "6%", + "# Forecasts": 17, + "# Forecasters": 14, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "17%", "# Forecasts": 18, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "28%", + "Percentage": "47%", + "# Forecasts": 18, + "# Forecasters": 14, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "8%", "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 14, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "6%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 14, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "9%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 14, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "38%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "5%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "89%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "44%", - "# Forecasts": 26, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "85%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "15%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "13%", - "# Forecasts": 19, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1790,12 +1710,12 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "4%", - "# Forecasts": 13, + "Percentage": "44%", + "# Forecasts": 26, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -1810,11 +1730,81 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "63%", + "Percentage": "34%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "7%", + "# Forecasts": 32, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "40%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "89%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "5%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "10 million", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "8%", + "# Forecasts": 36, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "51%", "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -1829,16 +1819,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "ETI is AGI", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "85%", - "# Forecasts": 18, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1860,18 +1840,78 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "ETI is AGI", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "51%", + "Percentage": "85%", + "# Forecasts": 18, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "30%", "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "63%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "85%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "5%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "13%", + "# Forecasts": 19, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "15%", @@ -1880,31 +1920,11 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "44%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "27%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "19%", + "Percentage": "4%", "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -1920,221 +1940,61 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", + "Percentage": "19%", "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "7%", - "# Forecasts": 32, + "Percentage": "38%", + "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "34%", + "Percentage": "27%", "# Forecasts": 16, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "40%", - "# Forecasts": 15, + "Percentage": "44%", + "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "10 million", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", - "# Forecasts": 36, + "Percentage": "15%", + "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 13, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "30%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "5%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "63%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "3%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "37%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "79%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "30%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "4%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "87%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "16%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "18%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "14%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "35%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "14%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "51%", "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -2149,6 +2009,216 @@ "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "8%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "87%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "67%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "37%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "70%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "24%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "61%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "34%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "1%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "63%", + "# Forecasts": 26, + "# Forecasters": 13, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "14%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "51%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "30%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "46%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "14%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "35%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "63%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "4%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "63%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "20%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "70%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 12, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2159,16 +2229,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "5%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2190,42 +2250,32 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "63%", - "# Forecasts": 26, - "# Forecasters": 13, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "24%", - "# Forecasts": 12, + "Percentage": "1%", + "# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", - "# Forecasts": 14, + "Percentage": "3%", + "# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "61%", - "# Forecasts": 12, + "Percentage": "47%", + "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -2240,115 +2290,45 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "70%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "46%", + "Percentage": "16%", "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "1%", + "Percentage": "79%", "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "20%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "63%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "70%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "67%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 12, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "34%", + "Percentage": "18%", "# Forecasts": 12, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "1%", - "# Forecasts": 15, + "Percentage": "8%", + "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 12, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "46%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "45%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "50 million", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2360,22 +2340,22 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "53%", + "Percentage": "9%", "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "14%", - "# Forecasts": 16, + "Percentage": "65%", + "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -2389,6 +2369,176 @@ "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "21%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "28%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "14%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "68%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "57%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "2%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "5%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "66%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "10%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "69%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "44%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "1%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "28%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "41%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "8%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "41%", + "# Forecasts": 22, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2409,36 +2559,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "31%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "9%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "41%", - "# Forecasts": 22, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2449,36 +2569,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "16%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "33%", - "# Forecasts": 15, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2490,18 +2580,78 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "21%", + "Percentage": "32%", "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "57%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "33%", + "# Forecasts": 15, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "48%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "56%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "29%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "43%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "10%", @@ -2509,6 +2659,66 @@ "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "31%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "75%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "45%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "53%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "4%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "78%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2530,265 +2740,35 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "42%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "9%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "28%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "29%", "# Forecasts": 12, "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "57%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "5%", + "Percentage": "16%", "# Forecasts": 12, "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "68%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "8%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "32%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "66%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "69%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "56%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "14%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "2%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "43%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "41%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "10%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "57%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "4%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "10%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "39%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "1%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "75%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "20%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "4%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "44%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "65%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2800,38 +2780,8 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "42%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "48%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "28%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 11, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "21%", @@ -2849,6 +2799,36 @@ "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "10%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "4%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "39%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2860,62 +2840,52 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "78%", - "# Forecasts": 12, + "Percentage": "20%", + "# Forecasts": 13, "# Forecasters": 11, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "77%", - "# Forecasts": 10, + "Percentage": "14%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "46%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 11, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "12%", + "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "71%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "16%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "9%", - "# Forecasts": 14, + "Percentage": "57%", + "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -2929,36 +2899,6 @@ "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, - { - "Title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "79%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "48%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "30%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, { "Title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2970,81 +2910,21 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "34%", - "# Forecasts": 16, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "47%", + "Percentage": "16%", "# Forecasts": 10, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "28%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "10%", - "# Forecasts": 14, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "22%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "4%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "20%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "56%", + "Percentage": "31%", "# Forecasts": 10, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -3060,81 +2940,21 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "1%", - "# Forecasts": 11, + "Percentage": "10%", + "# Forecasts": 14, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "35%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "16%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "22%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "75%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "7%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "6%", + "Percentage": "60%", "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -3149,6 +2969,36 @@ "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, + { + "Title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "16%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "20%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, { "Title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3190,11 +3040,11 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "60%", + "Percentage": "1%", "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -3210,101 +3060,11 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "29%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "13%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "53%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "31%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "44%", - "# Forecasts": 12, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "39%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "12%", - "# Forecasts": 11, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "26%", - "# Forecasts": 13, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "20%", + "Percentage": "3%", "# Forecasts": 10, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" @@ -3320,22 +3080,132 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "25%", + "Percentage": "29%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "30%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "44%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "13%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "34%", + "# Forecasts": 16, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "47%", "# Forecasts": 10, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "28%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "77%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, "Percentage": "11%", - "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "39%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "56%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "16%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "4%", + "# Forecasts": 10, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, @@ -3350,33 +3220,163 @@ "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "3%", - "# Forecasts": 10, - "# Forecasters": 10, - "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "Platform": "Elicit", - "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "57%", + "Percentage": "7%", "# Forecasts": 11, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" }, { - "Title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "Platform": "Elicit", "Binary question?": true, - "Percentage": "16%", + "Percentage": "6%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "22%", "# Forecasts": 12, "# Forecasters": 10, "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "53%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "71%", + "# Forecasts": 12, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "20%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "26%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "79%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "48%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "75%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "11%", + "# Forecasts": 13, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "35%", + "# Forecasts": 11, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "22%", + "# Forecasts": 10, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "URL": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "Platform": "Elicit", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "9%", + "# Forecasts": 14, + "# Forecasters": 10, + "Stars": "★☆☆☆☆" } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/givewellopenphil-questions-processed.json b/data/givewellopenphil-questions-processed.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bcaad50 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/givewellopenphil-questions-processed.json @@ -0,0 +1,862 @@ +[ + { + "Title": "OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020.", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023.", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We renew our support to OFTW after one year.", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "75%", + "Description": "Resolution: September 2019", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We renew our support to OFTW after two years.", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "Resolution: September 2020", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "35%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "10%", + "Description": "Resolution: By year-end 2017", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "Resolution: By year-end 2017", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "10%", + "Description": "Resolution: By year-end 2017", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "80%", + "Description": "Resolution: 2017", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "80%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "70%", + "Description": "Resolution: 2017", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "0.1%", + "Description": "Actual estimate was \"small probability, close to 0%\"", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "55%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "5%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "20%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "7%", + "Description": "Actual estimate was \"<10%\".", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2016", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "10%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2017", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "12.5%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "67%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "5%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives still operates in 2019", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "40%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "70%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": "No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "65%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "60%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "60%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "20%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "15%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up.", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "25%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "7.5%", + "Description": "(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do).", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "7.5%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "60%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "50%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "75%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "80%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "35%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": , + "URL": , + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": true, + "Percentage": "%", + "Description": "", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + } +] diff --git a/data/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json b/data/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ce95acc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json @@ -0,0 +1,344 @@ +[ + { + "Title": "One for the World — General Support", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

Confidence Prediction By Time
25% OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020. End of 2020
15% Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023. End of 2023
75% We renew our support to OFTW after one year. September 2019
50% We renew our support to OFTW after two years. September 2020
", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, Josh Rosenberg, our senior research analyst who led GiveWell's investigation of Zusha!, records the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Charity Science: Health — General Support", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Charity Science Health — SMS Reminders for Immunization", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the forecasts below, all of which we consider to be fairly rough. Except where otherwise noted, the end date for all predictions is the end of 2020.

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate our past predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts (made during our decision process):

Top charity predictions

Cost-effectiveness predictions

Charity predictions

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "New Incentives — General Support", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecast:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Risks of the grant and internal forecasts

This grant could fail to have the effects we hope for in a number of ways:

  1. The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up. We believe this is reasonably likely (~50% chance).
  2. The study yields a result that we're not confident in. We think there is a moderate chance (~25%) of this (given the number of potential problems that can arise with any study).
  3. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so (for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). We think this scenario is fairly unlikely (~7.5%).
  4. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly. We think this is fairly unlikely (~7.5%), especially given Sedlmayr's interest in attempting the intervention.

(We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking, especially grantmaking. The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are.)

", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Internal forecasts

For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:

Confidence Prediction By Time
60% GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points December 2021
50% GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively) December 2021
75% Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful December 2021
80% Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes) January 2024
35% Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline) January 2025
", + "Stars": "★★★☆☆" + }, + { + "Title": "UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey", + "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "Platform": "GiveWell", + "Binary question?": false, + "Percentage": "none", + "Description": "

Plans for follow-up

We plan to follow up with the gift recipient roughly every six months to check in on the timeline for receiving results from this study. At this stage, our understanding is that Wave 1 results will be available by mid-2018 and Wave 2 results will be available by mid-2019. We are uncertain when results will be able to be shared publicly, but aim to write publicly about the results as soon as we are able to.

We also plan to follow up with the recipient to share their pre-analysis plan publicly and, when the study is completed, to share data publicly.

Internal forecasts

We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this gift, we are recording the following forecasts:

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