refactor: monorepo

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Vyacheslav Matyukhin 2022-03-17 00:02:34 +03:00
parent 2df73b4933
commit 244f02b3af
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174 changed files with 22767 additions and 56647 deletions

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.gitignore vendored
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## Node modules
# Node modules
node_modules/
node_modules/*
## Security
# Security
**/betfaircertificates/
**/secrets.json
## Personal notes
# Personal notes
notes/*
## Build artifacts
# Build artifacts
done.txt
*.swp
# next.js
/.next/
/out/
# misc
.DS_Store
*.pem
# debug
npm-debug.log*
yarn-debug.log*
yarn-error.log*
# local env files
.env.local
.env.development.local
.env.test.local
.env.production.local
# vercel
.vercel
# yarn vs npm conflict
package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead

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16.4.2

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// worker: node src/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js
// worker: node src/backend/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js

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[[plugins]]
package = "netlify-plugin-cache-nextjs"
[build]
publish = ".next"

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/// <reference types="next" />
/// <reference types="next/image-types/global" />
// NOTE: This file should not be edited
// see https://nextjs.org/docs/basic-features/typescript for more information.

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package-lock.json generated

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"name": "metaforecasts",
"version": "1.0.0",
"description": "Get forecasts from various platforms",
"main": "src/index.js",
"scripts": {
"start": "node src/index.js",
"test": "echo \"Error: no test specified\" && exit 1",
"reload": "heroku run:detached node src/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js",
"setCookies": "./src/utils/setCookies.sh"
},
"repository": {
"type": "git",
"url": "git+https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts.git"
@ -17,27 +10,75 @@
"forecasts",
"predictions"
],
"type": "module",
"author": "Nuño Sempere",
"license": "MIT",
"bugs": {
"url": "https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts/"
},
"homepage": "https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts#readme",
"scripts": {
"cli": "ts-node src/backend/index.js",
"reload": "heroku run:detached node src/backend/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js",
"setCookies": "./src/backend/utils/setCookies.sh",
"next-dev": "next dev",
"next-build": "next build",
"next-start": "next start",
"next-export": "next export"
},
"dependencies": {
"@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.0",
"@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.1",
"@types/react": "^17.0.39",
"airtable": "^0.11.1",
"algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
"axios": "^0.21.1",
"autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
"axios": "^0.25.0",
"chroma-js": "^2.4.2",
"critters": "^0.0.16",
"dom-to-image": "^2.6.0",
"dotenv": "^16.0.0",
"fetch": "^1.1.0",
"fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"fuse.js": "^6.4.6",
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.1.15",
"graphql": "^16.3.0",
"graphql-request": "^4.0.0",
"html-to-image": "^1.7.0",
"https": "^1.0.0",
"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0",
"json2csv": "^5.0.5",
"mongodb": "^3.6.6",
"multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.17",
"next": "12",
"open": "^7.3.1",
"papaparse": "^5.3.0",
"pg": "^8.7.3",
"postcss": "^8.2.1",
"postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2",
"postcss-preset-env": "^7.3.2",
"query-string": "^7.1.1",
"react": "^17.0.2",
"react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.3.1",
"react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.3",
"react-dom": "^17.0.2",
"react-dropdown": "^1.9.2",
"react-hook-form": "^7.27.0",
"react-icons": "^4.2.0",
"react-markdown": "^8.0.0",
"react-safe": "^1.3.0",
"react-select": "^5.2.2",
"remark-gfm": "^3.0.1",
"squiggle-experimental": "^0.1.9",
"tabletojson": "^2.0.4",
"tailwindcss": "^3.0.22",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3",
"tunnel": "^0.0.6"
},
"devDependencies": {
"@netlify/plugin-nextjs": "^4.2.4",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.2.1",
"netlify-plugin-cache-nextjs": "^1.6.1",
"ts-node": "^10.7.0"
}
}

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// postcss.config.js
module.exports = {
plugins: {
tailwindcss: {},
autoprefixer: {},
},
};

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import {
mongoUpsert,
mongoRead,
mongoReadWithReadCredentials,
mongoGetAllElements,
mongoUpsert,
} from "./mongo-wrapper.js";
import { pgUpsert, pgRead, pgReadWithReadCredentials } from "./pg-wrapper.js";
import { pgRead, pgReadWithReadCredentials, pgUpsert } from "./pg-wrapper.js";
export async function databaseUpsert({ contents, group }) {
// No, this should be more rational, ({contents, group, schema})? Or should this be managed by this layer? Unclear.
@ -23,9 +22,7 @@ export async function databaseUpsert({ contents, group }) {
break;
case "history":
let currentDate = new Date();
let dateUpToYear = currentDate.
toISOString()
.slice(0,4)
let dateUpToYear = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 4);
let dateUpToMonth = currentDate
.toISOString()
.slice(0, 7)
@ -37,8 +34,16 @@ export async function databaseUpsert({ contents, group }) {
"metaforecastHistory",
"metaforecastDatabase"
);
await pgUpsert({ contents, schema: "history", tableName: `h${dateUpToYear}` });
await pgUpsert({ contents, schema: "history", tableName: `h${dateUpToMonth}` });
await pgUpsert({
contents,
schema: "history",
tableName: `h${dateUpToYear}`,
});
await pgUpsert({
contents,
schema: "history",
tableName: `h${dateUpToMonth}`,
});
break;
default:
mongoDocName = `${group}-questions`;

View File

@ -1,9 +1,14 @@
import pkg from 'mongodb';
import pkg from "mongodb";
import { getSecret } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize.js";
const { MongoClient } = pkg;
import { getSecret } from "../utils/getSecrets.js"
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize.js"
export async function mongoUpsert(contents, documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastCollection", databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase") {
export async function mongoUpsert(
contents,
documentName,
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection",
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase"
) {
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL || getSecret("mongodb");
const client = new MongoClient(url);
try {
@ -15,35 +20,46 @@ export async function mongoUpsert(contents, documentName, collectionName = "meta
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
// Construct a document
let document = ({
"name": documentName,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"contentsArray": contents
})
let document = {
name: documentName,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
contentsArray: contents,
};
// Create a filter
const filter = { "name": documentName };
const filter = { name: documentName };
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
await collection.replaceOne(filter, document, { upsert: true });
console.log(`Pushed document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(document)} MB`)
console.log(
`Pushed document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(
document
)} MB`
);
// Find one document
const myDocument = await collection.findOne(filter);
// Print to the console
console.log(`Received document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(contents)} MB`)
console.log("Sample: ")
console.log(
`Received document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(
contents
)} MB`
);
console.log("Sample: ");
console.log(JSON.stringify(myDocument.contentsArray.slice(0, 1), null, 4));
} catch (err) {
console.log(err.stack);
}
finally {
} finally {
await client.close();
}
}
export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastCollection", databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase") {
export async function mongoRead(
documentName,
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection",
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase"
) {
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL || getSecret("mongodb");
const client = new MongoClient(url, {
@ -51,7 +67,7 @@ export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastColl
useUnifiedTopology: true,
});
let documentContents
let documentContents = [];
try {
await client.connect();
console.log(`Connected correctly to server to read ${documentName}`);
@ -61,7 +77,7 @@ export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastColl
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
// Search options
const query = { "name": documentName };
const query = { name: documentName };
const options = {
// sort matched documents in descending order by rating
sort: { rating: -1 },
@ -70,26 +86,30 @@ export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastColl
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
const document = await collection.findOne(query, options);
documentContents = document.contentsArray
documentContents = document.contentsArray;
} catch (err) {
console.log(err.stack);
}
finally {
} finally {
await client.close();
}
console.log(documentContents.slice(0, 1));
return documentContents
return documentContents;
}
export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastCollection", databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase") {
const url = "mongodb+srv://metaforecast-frontend:hJr5c9kDhbutBtF1@metaforecastdatabaseclu.wgk8a.mongodb.net/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true"; // This user only has read permissions, so I'm not excessively worried, and would even be pleased, if someone read this and decided to do something cool with the database.
export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(
documentName,
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection",
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase"
) {
const url =
"mongodb+srv://metaforecast-frontend:hJr5c9kDhbutBtF1@metaforecastdatabaseclu.wgk8a.mongodb.net/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true"; // This user only has read permissions, so I'm not excessively worried, and would even be pleased, if someone read this and decided to do something cool with the database.
const client = new MongoClient(url, {
useNewUrlParser: true,
useUnifiedTopology: true,
});
let documentContents
let documentContents;
try {
await client.connect();
// console.log(`Connected correctly to server to read ${documentName}`);
@ -99,7 +119,7 @@ export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(documentName, collectionName
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
// Search options
const query = { "name": documentName };
const query = { name: documentName };
const options = {
// sort matched documents in descending order by rating
sort: { rating: -1 },
@ -108,18 +128,20 @@ export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(documentName, collectionName
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
const document = await collection.findOne(query, options);
documentContents = document.contentsArray
documentContents = document.contentsArray;
} catch (err) {
console.log(err.stack);
}
finally {
} finally {
await client.close();
}
// console.log(documentContents.slice(0,1));
return documentContents
return documentContents;
}
export async function mongoGetAllElements(databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase", collectionName = "metaforecastCollection") {
export async function mongoGetAllElements(
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase",
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection"
) {
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL || getSecret("mongodb");
const client = new MongoClient(url, {
useNewUrlParser: true,
@ -135,21 +157,22 @@ export async function mongoGetAllElements(databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase",
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
// Search options
const query = ({});
const options = ({});
const query = {};
const options = {};
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
const documents = await collection.find().toArray()
let documentNames = documents.map(document => ({ name: document.name, roughSizeMBs: roughSizeOfObject(document) }));
console.log(documentNames)
const documents = await collection.find().toArray();
let documentNames = documents.map((document) => ({
name: document.name,
roughSizeMBs: roughSizeOfObject(document),
}));
console.log(documentNames);
} catch (error) {
console.log(error)
}
finally {
console.log(error);
} finally {
await client.close();
}
}
//mongoGetAllElements()
//mongoGetAllElements("metaforecastDatabase", "metaforecastHistory")

View File

@ -1,30 +1,27 @@
import pkg from "pg";
const { Pool } = pkg;
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all/platformNames.js";
import { getSecret } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize.js";
import { hash } from "../utils/hash.js";
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize.js";
const { Pool } = pkg;
// Definitions
const schemas = ["latest", "history"];
const year = Number(new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 4));
const allowed_years = [year, year + 1].map(year => `h${year}`); // tables can't begin with number
const allowed_years = [year, year + 1].map((year) => `h${year}`); // tables can't begin with number
const allowed_months = [...Array(12).keys()]
.map((x) => x + 1)
.map(x => String(x).length == 1 ? `0${x}` : x);
.map((x) => (String(x).length == 1 ? `0${x}` : x));
const allowed_year_month_histories = [].concat(
...allowed_years.map((year) =>
allowed_months.map((month) => `${year}_${month}`)
)
); // h2022_01
const tableNamesWhitelistLatest = [
"combined",
...platformNames,
];
const tableNamesWhitelistLatest = ["combined", ...platformNames];
const tableNamesWhiteListHistory = [
...allowed_years,
...allowed_year_month_histories,
]
];
const tableNamesWhitelist = [
...tableNamesWhitelistLatest,
...tableNamesWhiteListHistory,
@ -43,19 +40,24 @@ const databaseURL =
// process.env.DATABASE_URL || getSecret("heroku-postgres")
const readWritePool = new Pool({
connectionString: databaseURL,
ssl: {
rejectUnauthorized: false,
},
ssl: process.env.POSTGRES_NO_SSL
? false
: {
rejectUnauthorized: false,
},
});
const readOnlyDatabaseURL =
"postgresql://public_read_only_user:gOcihnLhqRIQUQYt@postgres-red-do-user-10290909-0.b.db.ondigitalocean.com:25060/metaforecastpg?sslmode=require" ||
getSecret("digitalocean-postgres-public");
const readOnlyPool = new Pool({ // never used
const readOnlyPool = new Pool({
// never used
connectionString: readOnlyDatabaseURL,
ssl: {
rejectUnauthorized: false,
},
ssl: process.env.POSTGRES_NO_SSL
? false
: {
rejectUnauthorized: false,
},
});
// Helpers
@ -83,7 +85,7 @@ let createIndex = (schema, table) =>
let createUniqueIndex = (schema, table) =>
`CREATE UNIQUE INDEX ${schema}_${table}_id_index ON ${schema}.${table} (id);`;
async function pgInitializeScaffolding(){
async function pgInitializeScaffolding() {
async function setPermissionsForPublicUser() {
let initCommands = [
"REVOKE ALL ON DATABASE metaforecastpg FROM public_read_only_user;",
@ -111,7 +113,7 @@ async function pgInitializeScaffolding(){
});
}
}
let YOLO = false;
let YOLO = true;
if (YOLO) {
console.log("Create schemas");
for (let schema of schemas) {
@ -132,7 +134,7 @@ async function pgInitializeScaffolding(){
console.log("Set public user permissions");
await setPermissionsForPublicUser();
console.log("");
}else {
} else {
console.log(
"pgInitializeScaffolding: This command is dangerous, set YOLO to true in the code to invoke it"
);
@ -156,10 +158,10 @@ let buildMetaforecastTable = (
);`;
async function pgInitializeLatest() {
let YOLO = false;
let YOLO = true;
if (YOLO) {
console.log("Create tables & their indexes");
let schema = "latest"
let schema = "latest";
for (let table of tableNamesWhitelistLatest) {
await runPgCommand({
command: dropTable(schema, table),
@ -177,10 +179,10 @@ async function pgInitializeLatest() {
});
} else {
*/
await runPgCommand({
command: createUniqueIndex(schema, table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
await runPgCommand({
command: createUniqueIndex(schema, table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
//}
}
console.log("");
@ -193,7 +195,7 @@ async function pgInitializeLatest() {
async function pgInitializeDashboards() {
let buildDashboard = () =>
`CREATE TABLE latest.dashboards (
`CREATE TABLE latest.dashboards (
id text,
title text,
description text,
@ -202,7 +204,7 @@ async function pgInitializeDashboards() {
creator text,
extra json
);`;
let YOLO = false;
let YOLO = true;
if (YOLO) {
await runPgCommand({
command: `CREATE SCHEMA IF NOT EXISTS history;`,
@ -241,10 +243,7 @@ async function pgInitializeDashboards() {
}
}
let buildHistoryTable = (
schema,
table
) => `CREATE TABLE ${schema}.${table} (
let buildHistoryTable = (schema, table) => `CREATE TABLE ${schema}.${table} (
id text,
title text,
url text,
@ -257,7 +256,7 @@ let buildHistoryTable = (
extra json
);`;
export async function pgInitializeHistories() {
let YOLO = false;
let YOLO = true;
if (YOLO) {
console.log("Drop all previous history tables (Danger!)");
await runPgCommand({
@ -283,7 +282,7 @@ export async function pgInitializeHistories() {
console.log("");
console.log("Create tables & their indexes");
let schema = "history"
let schema = "history";
for (let table of tableNamesWhiteListHistory) {
await runPgCommand({
command: dropTable(schema, table),
@ -307,6 +306,7 @@ export async function pgInitializeHistories() {
}
export async function pgInitialize() {
await pgInitializeScaffolding();
await pgInitializeLatest();
await pgInitializeHistories();
await pgInitializeDashboards();
@ -478,7 +478,7 @@ pgInsertIntoDashboard({
*/
export async function pgUpsert({ contents, schema, tableName }) {
if (tableWhiteList.includes(`${schema}.${tableName}`)) {
let init = Date.now()
let init = Date.now();
if (schema == "latest") {
await runPgCommand({
command: dropTable(schema, tableName),
@ -493,8 +493,16 @@ export async function pgUpsert({ contents, schema, tableName }) {
pool: readWritePool,
});
}
console.log(`Upserting ${contents.length} rows into postgres table ${schema}.${tableName}.`);
console.log(`Expected to take ${Number(contents.length * 831.183 / 4422).toFixed(2)} seconds or ${Number(contents.length * 13.85305 / 4422).toFixed(2)} minutes`)
console.log(
`Upserting ${contents.length} rows into postgres table ${schema}.${tableName}.`
);
console.log(
`Expected to take ${Number((contents.length * 831.183) / 4422).toFixed(
2
)} seconds or ${Number((contents.length * 13.85305) / 4422).toFixed(
2
)} minutes`
);
let i = 0;
for (let datum of contents) {
await pgInsert({ datum, schema, tableName });
@ -507,29 +515,36 @@ export async function pgUpsert({ contents, schema, tableName }) {
}
}
console.log(
`Inserted ${contents.length} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
`Inserted ${
contents.length
} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
contents
)} MB into ${schema}.${tableName}.`
);
let check = await pgRead({ schema, tableName });
console.log(
`Received ${check.length} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
`Received ${
check.length
} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
check
)} MB from ${schema}.${tableName}.`
);
console.log("Sample: ");
console.log(JSON.stringify(check.slice(0, 1), null, 4));
let end = Date.now()
let difference = end - init
console.log(`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`)
let end = Date.now();
let difference = end - init;
console.log(
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${
difference / (1000 * 60)
} minutes.`
);
//console.log(JSON.stringify(check.slice(0, 1), null, 4));
} else {
console.log("tableWhiteList:")
console.log(tableWhiteList)
console.log("tableWhiteList:");
console.log(tableWhiteList);
throw Error(
`Table ${schema}.${tableName} not in whitelist; stopping to avoid tricky sql injections`
);
}

View File

@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
import { mergeEverything } from "./mergeEverything.js";
import { updateHistory } from "./history/updateHistory.js";
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "../utils/algolia.js";
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js";
import { platformFetchers } from "../platforms/all-platforms.js";
/* Do everything */
function sleep(ms) {
return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
}
export async function tryCatchTryAgain(fun) {
try {
console.log("Initial try");
await fun();
} catch (error) {
sleep(10000);
console.log("Second try");
console.log(error);
try {
await fun();
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
}
}
}
export async function doEverything() {
let functions = [
...platformFetchers,
mergeEverything,
rebuildAlgoliaDatabase,
updateHistory,
rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData,
];
// Removed Good Judgment from the fetcher, doing it using cron instead because cloudflare blocks the utility on heroku.
console.log("");
console.log("");
console.log("");
console.log("");
console.log("================================");
console.log("STARTING UP");
console.log("================================");
console.log("");
console.log("");
console.log("");
console.log("");
for (let fun of functions) {
console.log("");
console.log("");
console.log("****************************");
console.log(fun.name);
console.log("****************************");
await tryCatchTryAgain(fun);
console.log("****************************");
}
}

View File

@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
import { doEverything } from "./doEverything.js";
doEverything();

View File

@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
import { writeFileSync } from "fs";
import {
databaseReadWithReadCredentials,
databaseUpsert,
} from "../../database/database-wrapper.js";
let isEmptyArray = (arr) => arr.length == 0;
export async function addToHistory() {
let currentDate = new Date();
let dateUpToMonth = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 7).replace("-", "_");
let currentJSONwithMetaculus = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({
group: "combined",
});
let currentJSON = currentJSONwithMetaculus.filter(
(element) =>
element.platform != "Metaculus" && element.platform != "Estimize"
); // without Metaculus
// console.log(currentJSON.slice(0,20))
// console.log(currentJSON)
let historyJSON = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "history" });
// console.log(historyJSON)
let currentForecastsWithAHistory = currentJSON.filter(
(element) =>
!isEmptyArray(
historyJSON.filter(
(historyElement) =>
historyElement.title == element.title &&
historyElement.url == element.url
)
)
);
// console.log(currentForecastsWithAHistory)
let currentForecastsWithoutAHistory = currentJSON.filter((element) =>
isEmptyArray(
historyJSON.filter(
(historyElement) =>
historyElement.title == element.title &&
historyElement.url == element.url
)
)
);
// console.log(currentForecastsWithoutAHistory)
// Add both types of forecast
let newHistoryJSON = [];
for (let historyElement of historyJSON) {
let correspondingNewElementArray = currentForecastsWithAHistory.filter(
(element) =>
historyElement.title == element.title &&
historyElement.url == element.url
);
// console.log(correspondingNewElement)
if (!isEmptyArray(correspondingNewElementArray)) {
let correspondingNewElement = correspondingNewElementArray[0];
let timeStampOfNewElement = correspondingNewElement.timestamp;
let doesHistoryAlreadyContainElement = historyElement.history
.map((element) => element.timestamp)
.includes(timeStampOfNewElement);
if (!doesHistoryAlreadyContainElement) {
let historyWithNewElement = historyElement["history"].concat({
timestamp: correspondingNewElement.timestamp,
options: correspondingNewElement.options,
qualityindicators: correspondingNewElement.qualityindicators,
});
let newHistoryElement = {
...correspondingNewElement,
history: historyWithNewElement,
};
// If some element (like the description) changes, we keep the new one.
newHistoryJSON.push(newHistoryElement);
} else {
newHistoryJSON.push(historyElement);
}
} else {
// console.log(historyElement)
newHistoryJSON.push(historyElement);
}
}
for (let currentForecast of currentForecastsWithoutAHistory) {
let newHistoryElement = {
...currentForecast,
history: [
{
timestamp: currentForecast.timestamp,
options: currentForecast.options,
qualityindicators: currentForecast.qualityindicators,
},
],
};
delete newHistoryElement.timestamp;
delete newHistoryElement.options;
delete newHistoryElement.qualityindicators;
newHistoryJSON.push(newHistoryElement);
}
await databaseUpsert({ contents: newHistoryJSON, group: "history" });
// console.log(newHistoryJSON.slice(0,5))
// writeFileSync("metaforecast_history.json", JSON.stringify(newHistoryJSON, null, 2))
// writefile(JSON.stringify(newHistoryJSON, null, 2), "metaforecasts_history", "", ".json")
//console.log(newHistoryJSON)
/*
let forecastsAlreadyInHistory = currentJSON.filter(element => !isEmptyArray(historyJSON.filter(historyElement => historyElement.title == element.title && historyElement.url == element.url )))
*/
//console.log(new Date().toISOString())
}
// updateHistory()

View File

@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
import {
databaseRead,
databaseUpsert,
} from "../../database/database-wrapper.js";
export async function createHistoryForMonth() {
let currentDate = new Date();
let dateUpToMonth = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 7).replace("-", "_");
let metaforecasts = await databaseRead({ group: "combined" });
let metaforecastsHistorySeed = metaforecasts
.map((element) => {
// let moreoriginsdata = element.author ? ({author: element.author}) : ({})
return {
title: element.title,
url: element.url,
platform: element.platform,
moreoriginsdata: element.moreoriginsdata || {},
description: element.description,
history: [
{
timestamp: element.timestamp,
options: element.options,
qualityindicators: element.qualityindicators,
},
],
extra: element.extra || {},
};
})
.filter(
(element) =>
element.platform != "Metaculus" && element.platform != "Estimize"
);
//console.log(metaforecastsHistorySeed)
await databaseUpsert({
contents: metaforecastsHistorySeed,
group: "history",
});
}
////createInitialHistory()

View File

@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
import { databaseRead, databaseUpsert } from "../database-wrapper.js";
let createInitialHistory = async () => {
let metaforecasts = await databaseRead({ group: "combined" });
let metaforecastsHistorySeed = metaforecasts.map((element) => {
// let moreoriginsdata = element.author ? ({author: element.author}) : ({})
return {
title: element.title,
url: element.url,
platform: element.platform,
moreoriginsdata: element.moreoriginsdata || {},
description: element.description,
history: [
{
timestamp: element.timestamp,
options: element.options,
qualityindicators: element.qualityindicators,
},
],
extra: element.extra || {},
};
});
console.log(metaforecastsHistorySeed);
await databaseUpsert({
contents: metaforecastsHistorySeed,
group: "history",
});
};
createInitialHistory();

View File

@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
import { addToHistory } from "./addToHistory.js";
import { createHistoryForMonth } from "./createHistoryForMonth.js";
export async function updateHistoryOld() {
let currentDate = new Date();
let dayOfMonth = currentDate.getDate();
if (dayOfMonth == 1) {
console.log(
`Creating history for the month ${currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 7)}`
);
await createHistoryForMonth();
} else {
console.log(`Updating history for ${currentDate.toISOString()}`);
await addToHistory();
}
}
export async function updateHistory() {
let currentDate = new Date();
let year = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 4);
}

View File

@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
import {
databaseReadWithReadCredentials,
databaseUpsert,
} from "../../database/database-wrapper.js";
export async function updateHistory() {
let latest = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" });
await databaseUpsert({
contents: latest,
group: "history",
});
}

View File

@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
import { databaseRead, databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all-platforms.js"
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all-platforms.js";
/* Merge everything */
export async function mergeEverythingInner() {

View File

@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
import axios from "axios";
import { getSecret, applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
export async function rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData_inner(cookie) {
let payload = {};
let response = await axios.post(cookie, payload);
let data = response.data;
console.log(data);
}
export async function rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData() {
let cookie = process.env.REBUIDNETLIFYHOOKURL || getSecret("netlify");
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData_inner);
}

101
src/backend/frontpage.ts Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
import fs from 'fs';
import { pgRead } from './database/pg-wrapper';
// TODO - move to global `constants.ts` config
const location = "/Users/berekuk/coding/quri/metaforecast-backend/data";
export async function getFrontpageRaw() {
let frontpageSlicedLocation = `${location}/frontpage_sliced.json`;
return JSON.parse(
fs.readFileSync(frontpageSlicedLocation, { encoding: "utf-8" })
); // TODO - async, no reason to lock
}
export async function getFrontpageFullRaw() {
let frontpageSlicedLocation = `${location}/frontpage_full.json`;
return JSON.parse(
fs.readFileSync(frontpageSlicedLocation, { encoding: "utf-8" })
); // TODO - async, no reason to lock
}
export async function getFrontpage() {
let frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse = [];
try {
let data = await getFrontpageRaw();
frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse = data.map((result) => ({
item: result,
score: 0,
}));
return frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse;
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
} finally {
return frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse;
}
}
// Helpers
let shuffle = (array) => {
// https://stackoverflow.com/questions/2450954/how-to-randomize-shuffle-a-javascript-array
let currentIndex = array.length,
randomIndex;
// While there remain elements to shuffle...
while (currentIndex != 0) {
// Pick a remaining element...
randomIndex = Math.floor(Math.random() * currentIndex);
currentIndex--;
// And swap it with the current element.
[array[currentIndex], array[randomIndex]] = [
array[randomIndex],
array[currentIndex],
];
}
return array;
};
// Main
export async function downloadFrontpage() {
let init = Date.now();
let response = await pgRead({ schema: "latest", tableName: "combined" });
fs.writeFileSync(
`${location}/frontpage_full.json`,
JSON.stringify(response, null, 4)
);
console.log(`frontpage_full.json written to ${location}`);
let responseFiltered = response.filter(
(forecast) =>
forecast.qualityindicators &&
forecast.qualityindicators.stars >= 3 &&
forecast.options &&
forecast.options.length > 0 &&
forecast.description != ""
);
let responseFilteredAndRandomized = shuffle(responseFiltered).slice(0, 50);
fs.writeFileSync(
`${location}/frontpage_sliced.json`,
JSON.stringify(responseFilteredAndRandomized, null, 4)
);
console.log(`frontpage_sliced.json written to ${location}`);
let end = Date.now();
let difference = end - init;
console.log(
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
);
/*
# (run code)
sleep 10
cp /home/azrael/server/data/frontpage_freshly_sliced.json /home/azrael/server/data/frontpage_sliced.json
date > /home/azrael/server/data/frontpage_slicetime.txt
cat /home/azrael/server/data/frontpage_freshly_sliced.json >> /home/azrael/server/data/frontpage_slicetime.txt
*/
}
// TODO: call /api/cron/update-frontpage from github actions every 6 hours
// TODO: store frontpage_sliced copy somewhere

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@ -1,16 +1,13 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import "dotenv/config";
import readline from "readline";
import { platformFetchers } from "./platforms/all-platforms.js";
import { mergeEverything } from "./flow/mergeEverything.js";
import { updateHistory } from "./flow/history/updateHistory.js";
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "./utils/algolia.js";
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js";
import {
pgInitialize,
} from "./database/pg-wrapper.js";
import { pgInitialize } from "./database/pg-wrapper.js";
import { doEverything, tryCatchTryAgain } from "./flow/doEverything.js";
import { updateHistory } from "./flow/history/updateHistory.js";
import { mergeEverything } from "./flow/mergeEverything.js";
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js";
import { platformFetchers } from "./platforms/all-platforms.js";
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "./utils/algolia.js";
/* Support functions */
let functions = [

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@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
import "dotenv/config";
import fs from "fs";
import { databaseReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
let main = async () => {
let json = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" });
let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2);
let filename = "metaforecasts.json";
fs.writeFileSync(filename, string);
console.log(`File downloaded to ./${filename}`);
};
main();

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@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
import { pgInitialize } from "../database/pg-wrapper.js";
pgInitialize();

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@ -9,10 +9,10 @@ let suffixMongo = "-questions";
let main = async () => {
for (let file of pushManualFiles) {
let fileRaw = fs.readFileSync(`./src/input/${file + suffixFiles}`);
let fileRaw = fs.readFileSync(`./input/${file + suffixFiles}`);
let fileContents = JSON.parse(fileRaw);
console.log(fileContents);
await databaseUpsert({contents: fileContents, group: file });
await databaseUpsert({ contents: fileContents, group: file });
}
};
main();

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@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
/* Imports */
import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js"
import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js";
/* Definitions */
@ -8,5 +8,4 @@ import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js"
/* Support functions */
/* Body */
goodjudgment()
goodjudgment();

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@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.foretold.io/graphql";
let ScottAlexanderPredictions = ["6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637"];
/* Support functions */
async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) {
let response = await axios({
url: graphQLendpoint,
method: "POST",
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
data: JSON.stringify({
query: `
query {
measurables(
channelId: "${communityId}",
states: OPEN,
first: 500
){
total
edges{
node{
id
name
valueType
measurementCount
previousAggregate{
value{
percentage
}
}
}
}
}
}
`,
}),
})
.then((res) => res.data)
.then((res) => res.data.measurables.edges);
//console.log(response)
return response;
}
/* Body */
export async function astralcodexten() {
let results = [];
for (let community of ScottAlexanderPredictions) {
let questions = await fetchAllCommunityQuestions(community);
questions = questions.map((question) => question.node);
questions = questions.filter((question) => question.previousAggregate); // Questions without any predictions
questions.forEach((question) => {
let options = [];
if (question.valueType == "PERCENTAGE") {
let probability = question.previousAggregate.value.percentage;
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
];
}
let result = {
title: question.name.split(". ")[1],
url: `https://www.foretold.io/c/${community}/m/${question.id}`,
platform: "AstralCodexTen",
description: "...by the end of 2021",
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number((question.measurementCount + 1) / 2),
stars: calculateStars("AstralCodexTen", {}),
},
/*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
address: obj.address*/
};
// console.log(result)
results.push(result);
});
}
/*
let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
console.log(JSON.stringify(results, null, 2))
fs.writeFileSync('./data/astralcodexten-questions.json', string);
*/
await databaseUpsert(results, "astralcodexten-questions");
// console.log(results)
console.log("Done");
}
// astralcodexten()

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@ -0,0 +1,190 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
import Papa from "papaparse";
import open from "open";
import readline from "readline";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let coupCastEndpoint =
"https://www.oneearthfuture.org/sites/all/themes/stability/stability_sub/data/dashboard_2021_code_06.csv";
var datenow = new Date();
var currentmonth = datenow.getMonth() + 1;
dd;
/* Support functions */
let unique = (arr) => [...new Set(arr)];
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
let sanitizeCountryName = (country_name) => {
let sanitized_name;
switch (country_name) {
case "Cen African Rep":
sanitized_name = "Central African Republic";
break;
case "Congo-Brz":
sanitized_name = "Republic of the Congo";
break;
case "Congo/Zaire":
sanitized_name = "Democratic Republic of the Congo";
break;
case "Czech Rep":
sanitized_name = "Czech Republic";
break;
case "Dominican Rep":
sanitized_name = "Dominican Republic";
break;
case "Korea North":
sanitized_name = "North Korea";
break;
case "Korea South":
sanitized_name = "South Korea";
break;
case "UKG":
sanitized_name = "UK";
break;
default:
sanitized_name = country_name;
}
return sanitized_name;
};
async function processArray(countryArray) {
let results = [];
for (let country of countryArray) {
let url = `https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast`;
// We don't really want the prediction for all months; one is enough
// console.log(country.month)
if (Number(country.month) == currentmonth) {
// Monthly
country.country_name = sanitizeCountryName(country.country_name);
let processedPrediction1 = {
title: `Will there be a coup in ${country.country_name} in the next month (as of ${country.month}/${country.year})?`,
url: url,
platform: "CoupCast",
description: `The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${
country.leader_name
}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(
1
)} years. ${
country.country_name
} has a ${country.regime_type.toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${
country.regime_years
} years.`,
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: country.month_risk,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - country.month_risk,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Coupcast", {}),
},
extra: {
country_name: country.country_name,
regime_type: country.regime_type,
month: country.month,
year: country.year,
leader_name: country.leader_name,
month_risk: country.month_risk,
annual_risk: country.annual_risk,
risk_change_percent: country.risk_change_percent,
regime_years: country.regime_years,
leader_years: country.leader_years,
country_code: country.country_code,
country_abb: country.country_abb,
},
};
// Yearly
let processedPrediction2 = {
title: `Will there be a coup in ${country.country_name} in the next year (as of ${country.month}/${country.year})?`,
url: url,
platform: "CoupCast",
description: `The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${
country.leader_name
}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(
1
)} years. ${
country.country_name
} has a ${country.regime_type.toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${
country.regime_years
} years`,
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: country.annual_risk,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - country.annual_risk,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("CoupCast", {}),
},
extra: {
country_name: country.country_name,
regime_type: country.regime_type,
month: country.month,
year: country.year,
leader_name: country.leader_name,
month_risk: country.month_risk,
annual_risk: country.annual_risk,
risk_change_percent: country.risk_change_percent,
regime_years: country.regime_years,
leader_years: country.leader_years,
country_code: country.country_code,
country_abb: country.country_abb,
},
};
// results.push(processedPrediction1)
// Not pushing monthly
results.push(processedPrediction2);
}
}
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/elicit-questions.json', string);
await databaseUpsert(results, "coupcast-questions");
// console.log(results)
console.log("Done");
}
/* Body */
let filePath = "./data/coupcast-raw-download.csv"; // not used right now.
export async function coupcast() {
let csvContent = await axios
.get(coupCastEndpoint)
.then((query) => query.data);
await Papa.parse(csvContent, {
header: true,
complete: async (results) => {
console.log("Downloaded", results.data.length, "records.");
/* console.log(
JSON.stringify(
unique(results.data.map(country => country.country_name)),
null,
4
)
)*/
// console.log(results.data)
await processArray(results.data);
},
});
await sleep(1000); // needed to wait for Papaparse's callback to be executed.
}
// coupcast()

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@ -0,0 +1,283 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { getSecret, applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions?page=";
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
return this.split(search).join(replace);
};
const DEBUG_MODE = "on"; // "off"
const SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM = 100; //5000 // miliseconds
const SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA = 0; //1000
/* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(page, cookie) {
console.log(`Page #${page}`);
if (page == 1) {
cookie = cookie.split(";")[0]; // Interesting that it otherwise doesn't work :(
}
let urlEndpoint = htmlEndPoint + page;
console.log(urlEndpoint);
let response = await axios({
url: urlEndpoint,
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "text/html",
Cookie: cookie,
},
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
let response = await axios({
url: questionUrl + "/stats",
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "text/html",
Cookie: cookie,
Referer: questionUrl,
},
}).then((res) => res.data);
if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) {
throw Error("Not logged in");
}
// Is binary?
let isbinary = response.includes("binary?&quot;:true");
// console.log(`is binary? ${isbinary}`)
let options = [];
if (isbinary) {
// Crowd percentage
let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
// DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach(line => console.log(line)) : id()
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter((str) => str.includes("<h3>"))[0];
// DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? console.log(h5elements) : id()
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0];
let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100;
options.push(
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: +(1 - probability).toFixed(2), // avoids floating point shenanigans
type: "PROBABILITY",
}
);
} else {
try {
let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[1]; // Previously [1], then previously [3] but they added a new table.
// console.log(optionsBody)
let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + optionsBody + "table>";
let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
options = firstTable.map((element) => ({
name: element["0"],
probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
} catch (error) {
let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[3]; // Catch if the error is related to table position
let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + optionsBody + "table>";
let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
if (firstTable) {
options = firstTable.map((element) => ({
name: element["0"],
probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
} else {
// New type of question, tricky to parse the options
// Just leave options = [] for now.
// https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats
}
}
}
// Description
let descriptionraw = response.split(`<meta name="description" content="`)[1];
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`">`)[0];
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replace(">", "");
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace(
"To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.",
``
);
// console.log(descriptionprocessed3)
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replaceAll(
"\r\n\r\n",
"\n"
);
let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n");
let descriptionprocessed6 = descriptionprocessed5.replaceAll("&quot;", `"`);
let descriptionprocessed7 = descriptionprocessed6.replaceAll("&#39;", "'");
let descriptionprocessed8 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed7);
let description = descriptionprocessed8;
// Number of forecasts
//console.log(response)
//console.log(response.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1])
let numforecasts = response
.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1]
.split(",")[0];
// console.log(numforecasts)
// Number of predictors
let numforecasters = response
.split("predictors_count&quot;:")[1]
.split(",")[0];
// console.log(numpredictors)
let result = {
description: description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
stars: calculateStars("CSET-foretell", { numforecasts }),
},
};
return result;
}
function isSignedIn(html) {
let isSignedInBool = !(
html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
html.includes("Sign up")
);
if (!isSignedInBool) {
console.log("Error: Not signed in.");
}
console.log(`Signed in? ${isSignedInBool}`);
return isSignedInBool;
}
function isEnd(html) {
let isEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
if (isEndBool) {
//console.log(html)
}
console.log(`IsEnd? ${isEndBool}`);
return isEndBool;
}
function sleep(ms) {
return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
}
/* Body */
async function csetforetell_inner(cookie) {
let i = 1;
let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
let results = [];
let init = Date.now();
// console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.")
while (!isEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
let htmlLines = response.split("\n");
// let h4elements = htmlLines.filter(str => str.includes("<h5> <a href=") || str.includes("<h4> <a href="))
let questionHrefs = htmlLines.filter((str) =>
str.includes("https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/")
);
// console.log(questionHrefs)
if (process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
//console.log(response)
console.log("questionHrefs: ");
console.log(questionHrefs);
}
//console.log("")
//console.log("")
//console.log(h4elements)
for (let questionHref of questionHrefs) {
//console.log(h4element)
let elementSplit = questionHref.split('"><span>');
let url = elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1];
let title = elementSplit[1]
.replace("</h4>", "")
.replace("</h5>", "")
.replace("</span></a>", "");
await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA); // don't be as noticeable
try {
let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
let question = {
title: title,
url: url,
platform: "CSET-foretell",
...moreinfo,
};
if (
i % 30 == 0 &&
!(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on")
) {
console.log(
`Page #${i}` &&
!(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on")
);
console.log(question);
}
results.push(question);
if (process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
console.log(url);
console.log(question);
}
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
}
}
i++;
//i=Number(i)+1
console.log(
"Sleeping for ~5secs so as to not be as noticeable to the cset-foretell servers"
);
await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA); // don't be as noticeable
try {
response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
console.log(
`The program encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json. It is possible that this page wasn't actually a prediction question pages`
);
}
}
// let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/csetforetell-questions.json', string);
// console.log(results)
if (results.length > 0) {
await databaseUpsert(results, "csetforetell-questions");
} else {
console.log("Not updating results, as process was not signed in");
}
let end = Date.now();
let difference = end - init;
console.log(
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
);
}
export async function csetforetell() {
let cookie = process.env.CSETFORETELL_COOKIE || getSecret("csetforetell");
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, csetforetell_inner);
}

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@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
import Papa from "papaparse";
import open from "open";
import readline from "readline";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let elicitEndpoint =
"https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community";
/* Support functions */
let avg = (array) =>
array.reduce((a, b) => Number(a) + Number(b)) / array.length;
let unique = (arr) => [...new Set(arr)];
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
async function processArray(arrayQuestions) {
let questions = arrayQuestions.map((question) => question.questionTitle);
let uniqueQuestions = unique(questions);
let questionsObj = {};
uniqueQuestions.forEach((questionTitle) => {
questionsObj[questionTitle] = {
title: questionTitle,
forecasters: [],
forecasts: [],
};
});
arrayQuestions.forEach((question) => {
// console.log(question.questionTitle)
let questionTitle = question.questionTitle;
let correspondingQuestion = questionsObj[questionTitle];
let forecasters = correspondingQuestion.forecasters.concat(
question.predictionCreator
);
let forecasts = correspondingQuestion.forecasts.concat(question.prediction);
questionsObj[questionTitle] = {
forecasters,
forecasts,
};
});
let onlyQuestionsWithMoreThan;
let results = [];
for (let question in questionsObj) {
let title = question;
let forecasters = questionsObj[question].forecasters;
let numforecasters = unique(forecasters).length;
if (numforecasters >= 10) {
let url = `https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=${title.replace(
/ /g,
"%20"
)}&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0`;
let forecasts = questionsObj[question].forecasts;
//console.log(forecasts)
//console.log(avg(forecasts))
let probability = avg(forecasts) / 100;
let numforecasts = forecasts.length;
let standardObj = {
title: title,
url: url,
platform: "Elicit",
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
stars: calculateStars("Elicit", {}),
},
};
results.push(standardObj);
}
}
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/elicit-questions.json', string);
await databaseUpsert(results, "elicit-questions");
console.log("Done");
}
async function awaitdownloadconfirmation(message, callback) {
const rl = readline.createInterface({
input: process.stdin,
output: process.stdout,
});
rl.question(message, (answer) => {
//console.log("Received");
rl.close();
callback();
});
}
/* Body */
let filePath = "./data/elicit-binary_export.csv";
export async function elicit() {
let csvContent = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint).then((query) => query.data);
await Papa.parse(csvContent, {
header: true,
complete: async (results) => {
console.log("Downloaded", results.data.length, "records.");
//resolve(results.data);
//console.log(results.data)
await processArray(results.data);
},
});
await sleep(5000); // needed to wait for Papaparse's callback to be executed.
}
//elicit()

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@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
import fs from "fs";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
export async function estimize() {
let data = fs.readFileSync(
"./input/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv",
"utf8"
);
let splitData = data.split("\n");
let results = [];
for (let datum of splitData) {
if (datum != "") {
//console.log(datum)
let datumSplit = datum.split(",");
let companyStickerSymbol = datumSplit[0];
let companyName = datumSplit[1];
let standardObj = {
title: `Estimates for ${companyName} (${companyStickerSymbol})`,
url: `https://www.estimize.com/${companyStickerSymbol.toLowerCase()}`,
platform: "Estimize",
description: `A link to Estimize's forecasts for *${companyName}* (sticker symbol ${companyStickerSymbol}). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free`,
options: [],
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Estimize", {}),
},
};
results.push(standardObj);
}
}
// console.log(results)
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/estimize-questions.json', string);
await databaseUpsert(results, "estimize-questions");
}
//estimize()

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@ -0,0 +1,205 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
import https from "https";
import fetch from "isomorphic-fetch";
import { getSecret, applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let hypermindEnpoint1 = "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/jsx.json";
let hypermindEnpoint2 = "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp-jsx/jsx.json";
const insecureHttpsAgent = new https.Agent({
rejectUnauthorized: false, // (NOTE: this will disable client verification)
});
/* Support Functions */
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
return this.split(search).join(replace);
};
function sleep(ms) {
return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
}
/* Fetchers */
async function fetchHypermindData1(slug) {
let jsx = `jsx=%5B%5B%22dataMgr%22%2C%22getGQList%22%2C%7B%22listName%22%3A%20%22${slug}%22%2C%22format%22%3A%20%7B%22props%22%3A%20true%2C%22posts%22%3A%20true%2C%22cond%22%3A%20%7B%22props%22%3A%20true%2C%22otcm%22%3A%20%7B%22tradingHistory%22%3A%20true%2C%22props%22%3A%20true%7D%7D%2C%22otcm%22%3A%20%7B%22tradingHistory%22%3A%20true%2C%22props%22%3A%20true%7D%7D%7D%5D%5D`;
// console.log(jsx)
let response = await await axios(hypermindEnpoint1, {
credentials: "omit",
headers: {
"User-Agent":
"Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Ubuntu; Linux x86_64; rv:90.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/90.0",
Accept:
"text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,image/webp,*/*;q=0.8",
"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
"Content-Type": "application/x-www-form-urlencoded; charset=UTF-8",
"Upgrade-Insecure-Requests": "1",
"Sec-Fetch-Dest": "document",
"Sec-Fetch-Mode": "navigate",
"Sec-Fetch-Site": "none",
"Sec-Fetch-User": "?1",
"Cache-Control": "max-age=0",
},
referrer: `https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=${slug}`,
data: jsx,
method: "POST",
mode: "cors",
httpsAgent: insecureHttpsAgent,
}).then((response) => response.data[0].questions);
//console.log(response)
return response;
}
async function fetchHypermindDataShowcases(slug, cookie) {
let response = await axios(hypermindEnpoint2, {
credentials: "include",
headers: {
"User-Agent": "",
Accept: "*/*",
"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
"Content-Type": "application/json; charset=UTF-8",
//"Cookie": cookie
},
referrer:
"https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html?inFrame=true",
data: `[["showcase","getShowcase",{"showcase":"${slug}","fmt":{"fcsterCnt":true,"crowdFcst":true,"crowdFcstHist":false}}]]`,
method: "POST",
mode: "cors",
httpsAgent: insecureHttpsAgent,
})
.then((resp) => resp.data[0].items)
.then((items) => items.filter((item) => item.type == "IFP"))
.then((items) => items.map((item) => item.IFP));
// console.log(response)
// response.forEach(item => delete item.crowdFcstHist)
return response;
}
/* Body */
async function hypermind_inner(cookie) {
// Hypermind panelists and competitors; dashboard type two: "showcase"
// https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=SLUG
// E.g., https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=AI2023
let slugs2 = ["AI2030", "Covid19", "DOSES", "H5N8", "NGDP", "JSAI", "AI2023"]; // []
let results2 = [];
for (let slug of slugs2) {
console.log(slug);
await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000);
let response = await fetchHypermindDataShowcases(slug);
let objs = response.map((result) => {
let descriptionraw = result.props.details.split("<hr size=1>")[0];
let descriptionprocessed1 = toMarkdown(descriptionraw);
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replaceAll(
"![image] ()",
""
);
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replaceAll(
" Forecasting Schedule ",
""
);
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3
.replaceAll("\n", " ")
.replaceAll(" ", " ");
let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll(
"Context:",
""
);
let description =
descriptionprocessed5 || toMarkdown(result.props.details);
return {
title: result.props.title,
url:
"https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=" +
slug,
platform: "Hypermind",
description: description,
options: [],
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Hypermind", {}),
numforecasters: Number(result.fcsterCnt),
},
};
});
// console.log(objs)
results2.push(...objs);
}
// Prediction markets; dashboard type one.
// https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=SLUG
// e.g., https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL
let slugs1 = ["USA", "FRA", "AFR", "INT", "COV", "POL", "ECO"]; // []
let results1 = [];
for (let slug of slugs1) {
console.log(slug);
await sleep(2000 + Math.random() * 2000);
let result = await fetchHypermindData1(slug);
let objs = result.map((res) => {
let descriptionraw = res.props.details;
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("%%fr")[0];
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replaceAll(
"<BR>",
"\n"
);
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("%%en:", "");
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replace(
`Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100<sup></sup>, while the others will be worthless (0<sup></sup>).<p>`,
""
);
let descriptionprocessed5 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed4);
let description = descriptionprocessed5
.replaceAll("\n", " ")
.replaceAll(" ", " ");
//console.log(res.otcms)
//let percentage = (res.otcms.length==2) ? Number(res.otcms[0].price).toFixed(0) +"%" : "none"
let options = res.otcms.map((option) => ({
name: option.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replaceAll("%%en:", ""),
probability: Number(option.price) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
return {
title: res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
url: "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=" + slug,
platform: "Hypermind",
description: description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Hypermind", {}),
// "numforecasters": res.fcsterCnt
},
};
});
// console.log(objs)
results1.push(...objs);
}
let resultsTotal = [...results1, ...results2];
let distinctTitles = [];
let resultsTotalUnique = [];
for (let result of resultsTotal) {
if (!distinctTitles.includes(result["title"])) {
resultsTotalUnique.push(result);
distinctTitles.push(result["title"]);
}
}
// console.log(resultsTotal)
// console.log(resultsTotalUnique)
console.log(resultsTotalUnique.length, "results");
// let string = JSON.stringify(resultsTotalUnique, null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/hypermind-questions.json', string);
await databaseUpsert(resultsTotalUnique, "hypermind-questions");
}
//hypermind()
export async function hypermind() {
let cookie = process.env.HYPERMINDCOOKIE || getSecret("hypermind");
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, hypermind_inner);
}

View File

@ -1,23 +1,23 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import { calculateStars } from "../../utils/stars.js"
import {databaseUpsert} from "../../utils/database-wrapper.js"
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
import { calculateStars } from "../../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen"
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen";
// "https://gateway.thegraph.com/api/[api-key]/subgraphs/id/0x0503024fcc5e1bd834530e69d592dbb6e8c03968-0"
// 'https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen'
// https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph
// https://thegraph.com/explorer/subgraph/protofire/omen
async function fetchAllContractData() {
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now() / (1000 * 24 * 60 * 60)) - 50 // last 30 days
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now() / (1000 * 24 * 60 * 60)) - 50; // last 30 days
let response = await axios({
url: graphQLendpoint,
method: 'POST',
headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
data: JSON.stringify(({
method: "POST",
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
data: JSON.stringify({
query: `
{
fixedProductMarketMakers(first: 1000,
@ -37,63 +37,65 @@ async function fetchAllContractData() {
resolutionTimestamp
}
}
`
})),
`,
}),
})
.then(res => res.data)
.then(res => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers)
console.log(response)
return response
.then((res) => res.data)
.then((res) => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers);
console.log(response);
return response;
}
async function fetch_all() {
let allData = await fetchAllContractData()
let results = []
let allData = await fetchAllContractData();
let results = [];
for (let data of allData) {
if (data.question != null &
data.usdLiquidityMeasure != '0' &
data.resolutionTimestamp == null &
data.question.title != "ssdds") {
if (
(data.question != null) &
(data.usdLiquidityMeasure != "0") &
(data.resolutionTimestamp == null) &
(data.question.title != "ssdds")
) {
// console.log(data)
// console.log(data.usdLiquidityMeasure)
let options = data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.map((price, slotnum) => {
let name = `Option ${slotnum}`
if (data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.length == 2 && slotnum == 0) name = "Yes"
if (data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.length == 2 && slotnum == 1) name = "No"
return ({
"name": name,
"probability": Number(price),
"type": "PROBABILITY"
})
})
let name = `Option ${slotnum}`;
if (data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.length == 2 && slotnum == 0)
name = "Yes";
if (data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.length == 2 && slotnum == 1)
name = "No";
return {
name: name,
probability: Number(price),
type: "PROBABILITY",
};
});
let obj = {
"title": data.question.title,
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/" + data.id,
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Omen", ({}))
}
}
title: data.question.title,
url: "https://omen.eth.link/#/" + data.id,
platform: "Omen",
description: "",
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Omen", {}),
},
};
// console.log(obj)
results.push(obj)
results.push(obj);
}
}
return results
return results;
}
/* Body */
export async function omen() {
let results = await fetch_all()
let results = await fetch_all();
// console.log(result)
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/omen-questions.json', string);
await databaseUpsert(results, "omen-questions")
console.log("Done")
await databaseUpsert(results, "omen-questions");
console.log("Done");
}
//omen()

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@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import fs from "fs";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let endpoint = "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics";
// <header class="header-dropdown header-dropdown--large -expanded" data-id="
/* Support functions */
async function fetchUrl(url) {
let response = await axios(url, {
credentials: "include",
headers: {
"User-Agent":
"Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Ubuntu; Linux x86_64; rv:86.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/86.0",
Accept:
"text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,image/webp,*/*;q=0.8",
"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
"Upgrade-Insecure-Requests": "1",
"Cache-Control": "max-age=0",
},
method: "GET",
mode: "cors",
}).then((response) => response.data);
return response;
}
let processResults = (html) => {
let results = [];
let chunks = html.split(
'<header class="header-dropdown header-dropdown--large -expanded" data-id="'
);
chunks.shift();
// Kamala Special
let kamalaspecial = chunks[0];
let kamalamarkets = kamalaspecial.split(
'<div class="btmarket__selection"><p class="btmarket__name"><span>'
);
kamalamarkets.shift();
for (let kamalamarket of kamalamarkets) {
let title = kamalamarket.split("</span>")[0];
let numerator = Number(kamalamarket.split('data-num="')[1].split('"')[0]);
let denominator = Number(
kamalamarket.split('data-denom="')[1].split('"')[0]
);
let probability = denominator / (numerator + denominator);
let obj = {
title: title,
url: "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
platform: "WilliamHill",
description: "",
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("WilliamHill", {}),
},
};
results.push(obj);
}
chunks.shift();
// Deal with the other markets
for (let chunk of chunks) {
let title = chunk.split('"')[0];
let title2 = chunk.split('<a title="')[1].split('"')[0];
title = title.length > title2.length ? title : title2;
let options = [];
let alternatives = chunk.split(
'<div class="btmarket__selection"><p class="btmarket__name"><span>'
);
alternatives.shift();
for (let alternative of alternatives) {
let optionName = alternative.split("</span>")[0];
let numerator = Number(alternative.split('data-num="')[1].split('"')[0]);
let denominator = Number(
alternative.split('data-denom="')[1].split('"')[0]
);
let option = {
name: optionName,
probability: denominator / (numerator + denominator),
type: "PROBABILITY",
};
options.push(option);
}
// normalize probabilities
let totalValue = options
.map((element) => Number(element.probability))
.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
options = options.map((element) => ({
...element,
probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue,
}));
// Filter very unlikely probabilities: Not here, but on the front end
// options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02)
let obj = {
title: title,
url: "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
platform: "WilliamHill",
options: options,
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("WilliamHill", {}),
},
};
results = results.filter(
(result) => result.title.length > 4 && result.title != "2024 or later"
);
// removes some predictions because hard to parse.
results.push(obj);
}
//console.log(results)
return results;
};
let processhtml2 = (html) => {
html.split();
};
/* Body */
export async function williamhill() {
let response = await fetchUrl(
"https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics"
);
let results = processResults(response);
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/williamhill-questions.json', string);
await databaseUpsert(results, "williamhill-questions");
console.log(results.sort((a, b) => a.title > b.title));
console.log("Done");
}
//williamhill()

View File

@ -1,9 +1,8 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import fs from "fs";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "./data/";
@ -24,7 +23,7 @@ async function fetchPage(url) {
/* Body */
async function main1() {
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./src/input/givewellopenphil-urls.txt");
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./input/givewellopenphil-urls.txt");
let data = rawdata
.toString()
.split("\n")
@ -72,10 +71,12 @@ async function main1() {
// main1()
async function main2() {
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./src/input/givewellopenphil-questions.json");
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./input/givewellopenphil-questions.json");
let data = JSON.parse(rawdata);
let dataWithDate = data.map(datum => ({...datum, timestamp: '2021-02-23'}))
let dataWithDate = data.map((datum) => ({
...datum,
timestamp: "2021-02-23",
}));
await databaseUpsert({ group: "givewellopenphil", contents: dataWithDate });
}
main2();

View File

@ -224,7 +224,6 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
console.log(results);
if (results.length > 0) {
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "goodjudmentopen" });
} else {
console.log("Not updating results, as process was not signed in");
}

View File

@ -1,9 +1,8 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import fs from "fs";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
/* Definitions */
let jsonEndPoint = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?page=";

View File

Can't render this file because it contains an unexpected character in line 3 and column 50.

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@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import { databaseReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
/* Utilities */
/* Support functions */
let getQualityIndicators = (forecast) =>
Object.entries(forecast.qualityindicators)
.map((entry) => `${entry[0]}: ${entry[1]}`)
.join("; ");
/* Body */
let main = async () => {
let highQualityPlatforms = [
"CSET-foretell",
"Foretold",
"Good Judgment Open",
"Metaculus",
"PredictIt",
"Rootclaim",
];
let json = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" });
console.log(json.length);
//let uniquePlatforms = [...new Set(json.map(forecast => forecast.platform))]
//console.log(uniquePlatforms)
let forecastsFromGoodPlatforms = json.filter((forecast) =>
highQualityPlatforms.includes(forecast.platform)
);
let tsv =
"index\ttitle\turl\tqualityindicators\n" +
forecastsFromGoodPlatforms
.map((forecast, index) => {
let row = `${index}\t${forecast.title}\t${
forecast.url
}\t${getQualityIndicators(forecast)}`;
console.log(row);
return row;
})
.join("\n");
//console.log(tsv)
// let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync("metaforecasts.tsv", tsv);
};
main();

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@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import { databaseReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
/* Utilities */
/* Support functions */
let getQualityIndicators = (forecast) =>
Object.entries(forecast.qualityindicators)
.map((entry) => `${entry[0]}: ${entry[1]}`)
.join("; ");
let shuffleArray = (array) => {
// See: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/2450954/how-to-randomize-shuffle-a-javascript-array
for (let i = array.length - 1; i > 0; i--) {
const j = Math.floor(Math.random() * (i + 1));
[array[i], array[j]] = [array[j], array[i]];
}
return array;
};
/* Body */
let main = async () => {
let highQualityPlatforms = ["Metaculus"]; // ['CSET-foretell', 'Foretold', 'Good Judgment Open', 'Metaculus', 'PredictIt', 'Rootclaim']
let json = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" });
console.log(json.length);
//let uniquePlatforms = [...new Set(json.map(forecast => forecast.platform))]
//console.log(uniquePlatforms)
let forecastsFromGoodPlatforms = json.filter((forecast) =>
highQualityPlatforms.includes(forecast.platform)
);
let forecastsFromGoodPlatformsShuffled = shuffleArray(
forecastsFromGoodPlatforms
);
let tsv =
"index\ttitle\turl\tqualityindicators\n" +
forecastsFromGoodPlatforms
.map((forecast, index) => {
let row = `${index}\t${forecast.title}\t${
forecast.url
}\t${getQualityIndicators(forecast)}`;
console.log(row);
return row;
})
.join("\n");
//console.log(tsv)
// let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync("metaforecasts_metaculus_v2.tsv", tsv);
};
main();

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@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
import fs from "fs";
export function getSecret(property) {
let answer = 0;
try {
let rawcookie = fs.readFileSync("./input/secrets.json");
let cookie = JSON.parse(rawcookie);
if (cookie[property]) {
answer = cookie[property];
console.log(`Got cookie: ${answer.slice(0, 5)}...`);
}
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
}
return answer;
}
export async function applyIfSecretExists(cookie, fun) {
if (cookie) {
await fun(cookie);
} else if (!cookie) {
console.log(
`Cannot proceed with ${fun.name} because cookie does not exist`
);
throw new Error(`No cookie for ${fun.name}`);
}
}

View File

@ -1,18 +1,17 @@
## GiveWell
wget --recursive --no-clobber --html-extension --domains givewell.org --follow-tags=a --reject '*.js,*.css,*.ico,*.txt,*.gif,*.jpg,*.jpeg,*.png,*.mp3,*.mp4,*.pdf,*.tgz,*.flv,*.avi,*.mpeg,*.iso,*.xls,*.xlsx,*.csv,*.doc,*.docx,*.mpa,*mp4' --ignore-tags=img,link,script --header="Accept: text/html" --no-parent https://www.givewell.org
wget --recursive --no-clobber --html-extension --domains givewell.org --follow-tags=a --reject '_.js,_.css,_.ico,_.txt,_.gif,_.jpg,_.jpeg,_.png,_.mp3,_.mp4,_.pdf,_.tgz,_.flv,_.avi,_.mpeg,_.iso,_.xls,_.xlsx,_.csv,_.doc,_.docx,_.mpa,\*mp4' --ignore-tags=img,link,script --header="Accept: text/html" --no-parent https://www.givewell.org
grep -ri "Internal forecast" -E "prediction|Prediction|forecast|Forecast" * | sed 's/^/https:\/\/www.givewell.org\//' > searchresults.txt
grep -ri "Internal forecast" -E "prediction|Prediction|forecast|Forecast" \* | sed 's/^/https:\/\/www.givewell.org\//' > searchresults.txt
grep -ril "Internal forecast" -E "prediction|Prediction|forecast|Forecast" * > searchresults.txt
grep -ril "Internal forecast" -E "prediction|Prediction|forecast|Forecast" \* > searchresults.txt
cat searchresults.txt
cat searchresults.txt | sed 's/^/https:\/\/www.givewell.org\//' > searchresults2.txt
cat searchresults2.txt
grep -v "print" searchresults2.txt > searchresults3.txt
while read line; do
firefox --new-tab "$line"
firefox --new-tab "$line"
done < searchresults3.txt
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were.
@ -32,7 +31,7 @@ Divide by h2, then pull the second which has forecasts
## OpenPhil
wget --recursive --no-clobber --html-extension --domains www.openphilanthropy.org --follow-tags=a --reject '*.js,*.css,*.ico,*.txt,*.gif,*.jpg,*.jpeg,*.png,*.mp3,*.mp4,*.pdf,*.tgz,*.flv,*.avi,*.mpeg,*.iso,*.xls,*.xlsx,*.csv,*.doc,*.docx,*.mpa,*mp4' --ignore-tags=img,link,script --header="Accept: text/html" --no-parent https://www.openphilanthropy.org
wget --recursive --no-clobber --html-extension --domains www.openphilanthropy.org --follow-tags=a --reject '_.js,_.css,_.ico,_.txt,_.gif,_.jpg,_.jpeg,_.png,_.mp3,_.mp4,_.pdf,_.tgz,_.flv,_.avi,_.mpeg,_.iso,_.xls,_.xlsx,_.csv,_.doc,_.docx,_.mpa,\*mp4' --ignore-tags=img,link,script --header="Accept: text/html" --no-parent https://www.openphilanthropy.org
Find and delete largest files
du -a . | sort -n -r | head -n 20
@ -40,8 +39,7 @@ find . -xdev -type f -size +100M
find . -type f -exec du -s {} \; | sort -r -k1,1n | head -n 20
grep -ril -E "Internal forecast" * > searchresults.txt
grep -ril -E "Internal forecast" \* > searchresults.txt
grep -v "print" searchresults.txt > searchresults2.txt

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@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "../../data/";
/* Body */
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync(
"/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions-raw.json"
);
let data = JSON.parse(rawdata);
let results = [];
for (let datum of data) {
let probability = datum["probability"];
let description = datum["actualEstimate"]
? `Actual estimate: ${datum["actualEstimate"]}
${datum["description"]}`
: datum["description"];
let author = `${datum["platform"]} (~${datum["date_approx"]})`;
let result = {
title: datum["title"],
url: datum["url"],
platform: "X-risk estimates",
author: author,
description: description,
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: 2, //datum["stars"]
},
};
results.push(result);
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2);
fs.writeFileSync(
"/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions-new.json",
string
);

View File

@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "../../data/";
/* Body */
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync(
"/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-mongo/src/input/xrisk-questions.json"
);
let data = JSON.parse(rawdata);
let results = [];
for (let datum of data) {
let result = {
title: datum["title"],
url: datum["url"],
platform: "X-risk estimates",
moreoriginsdata: {
author: datum.author,
},
description: datum.description,
options: datum.options,
timestamp: datum.timestamps,
qualityindicators: {
stars: 2, //datum["stars"]
},
};
results.push(result);
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2);
fs.writeFileSync(
"/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-mongo/src/input/xrisk-questions-new2.json",
string
);

View File

@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import { databaseReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database-wrapper.js";
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "./data/";
/* Body */
// let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./data/merged-questions.json") // run from topmost folder, not from src
async function main() {
let data = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" }); //JSON.parse(rawdata)
let processDescription = (description) => {
if (description == null || description == undefined || description == "") {
return "";
} else {
description =
description == null
? ""
: description
.replaceAll("] (", "](")
.replaceAll(") )", "))")
.replaceAll("( [", "([")
.replaceAll(") ,", "),")
.replaceAll("\n", " ");
if (description.length > 1000) {
return description.slice(0, 1000) + "...";
} else {
return description;
}
}
};
let results = [];
for (let datum of data) {
// do something
let description = processDescription(datum["description"]);
let forecasts = datum["qualityindicators"]
? datum["qualityindicators"].numforecasts
: "unknown";
let stars = datum["qualityindicators"]
? datum["qualityindicators"].stars
: 2;
results.push("Title: " + datum["title"]);
results.push("URL: " + datum["url"]);
results.push("Platform: " + datum["platform"]);
results.push("Description: " + description);
results.push("Number of forecasts: " + forecasts);
results.push("Stars: " + forecasts);
results.push("\n");
}
let string = results.join("\n");
string = string.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n");
fs.writeFileSync("elicit-output.txt", string);
}
main();

View File

@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "./data/";
/* Body */
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("../data/merged-questions.json");
let data = JSON.parse(rawdata);
let results = [];
for (let datum of data) {
// do something
}
let string = JSON.stringify(result, null, 2);
fs.writeFileSync("../data/output.txt", string);

View File

@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
let elicitEndpoint =
"https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community";
let main = async () => {
let response = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint).then((query) => query.data);
console.log(response);
};
main();

View File

@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
export function roughSizeOfObject(object) {
var objectList = [];
var stack = [object];
var bytes = 0;
while (stack.length) {
var value = stack.pop();
if (typeof value === "boolean") {
bytes += 4;
} else if (typeof value === "string") {
bytes += value.length * 2;
} else if (typeof value === "number") {
bytes += 8;
} else if (typeof value === "object" && objectList.indexOf(value) === -1) {
objectList.push(value);
for (var i in value) {
stack.push(value[i]);
}
}
}
let megaBytes = bytes / 1024 ** 2;
let megaBytesRounded = Math.round(megaBytes * 10) / 10;
return megaBytesRounded;
}

View File

@ -1,23 +1,25 @@
/* Imports */
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import textVersion from "textversionjs";
/* Definitions */
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) { return this.split(search).join(replace); }
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
return this.split(search).join(replace);
};
var styleConfig = {
linkProcess: function(href, linkText){
let newHref = href ? href.replace(/\(/g, "%28").replace(/\)/g, "%29") : ""
// Deal corretly in markdown with links that contain parenthesis
return `[${linkText}](${newHref})`;
},
}
linkProcess: function (href, linkText) {
let newHref = href ? href.replace(/\(/g, "%28").replace(/\)/g, "%29") : "";
// Deal corretly in markdown with links that contain parenthesis
return `[${linkText}](${newHref})`;
},
};
/* Support functions */
/* Body */
export default function toMarkdown(htmlText){
let html2 = htmlText.replaceAll(`='`, `="`).replaceAll(`'>`, `">`)
export default function toMarkdown(htmlText) {
let html2 = htmlText.replaceAll(`='`, `="`).replaceAll(`'>`, `">`);
return textVersion(html2, styleConfig);
}

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