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Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet

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NunoSempere 2021-03-08 23:17:08 +01:00
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152
data/csetforetell-questions.json
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@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $470 billion", "name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.037599999999999995, "probability": 0.0493,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.0941, "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.22210000000000002, "probability": 0.2133,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3452, "probability": 0.3403,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $680 billion", "name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.301, "probability": 0.297,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "42", "numforecasts": "44",
"numforecasters": "41", "numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -43,17 +43,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27, "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.73, "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "74", "numforecasts": "78",
"numforecasters": "70", "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -73,8 +73,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "121", "numforecasts": "127",
"numforecasters": "102", "numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -157,32 +157,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than -0.25", "name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.1512, "probability": 0.14679999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3188, "probability": 0.3135,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.31379999999999997, "probability": 0.3201,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
"probability": 0.1726, "probability": 0.1759,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.5", "name": "More than 0.5",
"probability": 0.0435, "probability": 0.0436,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "110", "numforecasts": "113",
"numforecasters": "98", "numforecasters": "100",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -229,12 +229,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $30 million", "name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.0463, "probability": 0.046900000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3015, "probability": 0.3019,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -244,17 +244,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
"probability": 0.1929, "probability": 0.19190000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $150 million", "name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.1267, "probability": 0.1268,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "114", "numforecasts": "116",
"numforecasters": "106", "numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -265,32 +265,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 26,000", "name": "Less than 26,000",
"probability": 0.0504, "probability": 0.0492,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1112, "probability": 0.1092,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
"probability": 0.2288, "probability": 0.2296,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
"probability": 0.336, "probability": 0.33649999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 32,000", "name": "More than 32,000",
"probability": 0.2736, "probability": 0.2754,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "40", "numforecasts": "41",
"numforecasters": "36", "numforecasters": "37",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -382,8 +382,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "104", "numforecasts": "105",
"numforecasters": "73", "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -394,22 +394,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Zero", "name": "Zero",
"probability": 0.32170000000000004, "probability": 0.33130000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "One", "name": "One",
"probability": 0.3811, "probability": 0.376,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Two or more", "name": "Two or more",
"probability": 0.29719999999999996, "probability": 0.2927,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "88", "numforecasts": "89",
"numforecasters": "78", "numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -456,17 +456,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6, "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.4, "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "258", "numforecasts": "262",
"numforecasters": "174", "numforecasters": "175",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -544,32 +544,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 15%", "name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.0775, "probability": 0.0679,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1532, "probability": 0.1553,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%", "name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
"probability": 0.292, "probability": 0.3125,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.3109, "probability": 0.305,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 21%", "name": "More than 21%",
"probability": 0.1663, "probability": 0.1593,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "104", "numforecasts": "111",
"numforecasters": "95", "numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -593,42 +593,6 @@
"numforecasters": "120", "numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.11220000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.17170000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.2878,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.3049,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.1234,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "242",
"numforecasters": "182",
"stars": 3
},
{ {
"title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?", "title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021",
@ -673,32 +637,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 675", "name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.3636, "probability": 0.3826,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.31, "probability": 0.2993,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.1795, "probability": 0.1761,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.1002, "probability": 0.09630000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 900", "name": "More than 900",
"probability": 0.0466, "probability": 0.045700000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "102", "numforecasts": "105",
"numforecasters": "63", "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
} }
] ]

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data/elicit-questions.json
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data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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@ -7,17 +7,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 July 2021", "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.19, "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.73, "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.06, "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -27,7 +27,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -124,12 +124,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.79, "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 1.6 billion", "name": "More than 1.6 billion",
"probability": 0.04, "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -147,7 +147,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.99, "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -162,7 +162,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -181,12 +181,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.82, "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.18, "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -210,7 +210,7 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 May 2021", "name": "Before 1 May 2021",
"probability": 0, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -220,17 +220,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.38, "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.52, "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 November 2021", "name": "Not before 1 November 2021",
"probability": 0.09, "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -278,17 +278,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 July 2021", "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.37, "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.48, "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.05, "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -298,7 +298,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.02, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -312,7 +312,7 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "The Games will begin", "name": "The Games will begin",
"probability": 0.98, "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -322,7 +322,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "The Games will be cancelled", "name": "The Games will be cancelled",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -370,12 +370,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.11, "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.76, "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -399,12 +399,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.47, "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Higher by more than 100%", "name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.52, "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -423,7 +423,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.99, "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -438,7 +438,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

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data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.039603960396039604, "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.9603960396039604, "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.72, "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.28, "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -44,12 +44,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes, more than 121", "name": "Yes, more than 121",
"probability": 0.32, "probability": 0.35238095238095235,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No, not more than 121", "name": "No, not more than 121",
"probability": 0.68, "probability": 0.6476190476190475,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Xavier Bertrand", "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046, "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Pierre de Villiers", "name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523, "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Anne Hidalgo", "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.028571428571428567, "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Yannick Jadot", "name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046, "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Marine Le Pen", "name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.13333333333333333, "probability": 0.1372549019607843,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Emmanuel Macron", "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5619047619047619, "probability": 0.5882352941176471,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046, "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Valérie Pécresse", "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523, "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Eric Piolle", "name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523, "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another woman", "name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.057142857142857134, "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another man", "name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.13333333333333333, "probability": 0.1372549019607843,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -211,60 +211,6 @@
"description": "", "description": "",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{
"title": "In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nov-Dec, 2020",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "January 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "February 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.03092783505154639,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.11340206185567009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.25773195876288657,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.35051546391752575,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.24742268041237112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",
"stars": 3
},
{ {
"title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?", "title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
@ -289,6 +235,60 @@
"description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H", "description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{
"title": "In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nov-Dec, 2020",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "January 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "February 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.14150943396226415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.24528301886792453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.32075471698113206,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.25471698113207547,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",
"stars": 3
},
{ {
"title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?", "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
@ -296,12 +296,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07, "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.93, "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -315,22 +315,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
"probability": 0.2818181818181818, "probability": 0.36470588235294116,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane",
"probability": 0.07272727272727272, "probability": 0.09411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Someone else from PJD", "name": "Someone else from PJD",
"probability": 0.04545454545454545, "probability": 0.05882352941176471,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Someone else not from PJD", "name": "Someone else not from PJD",
"probability": 0.6, "probability": 0.4823529411764706,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -513,27 +513,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
"probability": 0.00892857142857143, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q2, 2021", "name": "Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.16964285714285715, "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q3, 2021", "name": "Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.35714285714285715, "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q4, 2021", "name": "Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.125, "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe later", "name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.3392857142857143, "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -547,17 +547,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
"probability": 0.6428571428571429, "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another Likud politician", "name": "Another Likud politician",
"probability": 0.04081632653061225, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another politician not from Likud", "name": "Another politician not from Likud",
"probability": 0.3163265306122449, "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -571,17 +571,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record", "name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.24509803921568626, "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
"probability": 0.2647058823529412, "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not worse than 2020", "name": "Not worse than 2020",
"probability": 0.49019607843137253, "probability": 0.504950495049505,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -634,27 +634,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "in Q1, 2021", "name": "in Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0.06862745098039215, "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q2, 2021", "name": "in Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.3431372549019608, "probability": 0.330188679245283,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q3, 2021", "name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685, "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q4, 2021", "name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.1568627450980392, "probability": 0.1509433962264151,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Perhaps later", "name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.30392156862745096, "probability": 0.330188679245283,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -668,22 +668,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.05, "probability": 0.04504504504504505,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.51, "probability": 0.5045045045045046,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.3, "probability": 0.32432432432432434,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.14, "probability": 0.12612612612612614,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -697,22 +697,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.77, "probability": 0.7641509433962264,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.06, "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.05, "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.12, "probability": 0.11320754716981131,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -731,47 +731,18 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q1, 2021", "name": "Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0.030303030303030304, "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe later", "name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.9696969696969697, "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"description": "", "description": "",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{
"title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mohamed Bazoum",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mahamane Ousmane",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No official winner in 2021",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.",
"stars": 3
},
{ {
"title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?", "title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
@ -798,12 +769,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "≥ 6,000", "name": "≥ 6,000",
"probability": 0.679245283018868, "probability": 0.8571428571428571,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "≤ 5,000", "name": "≤ 5,000",
"probability": 0.32075471698113206, "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -836,12 +807,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.86, "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.14, "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

7876
data/metaculus-questions.json
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4
data/omen-questions.json
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@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3071076717801492, "probability": 0.3061476756659444,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.6928923282198508, "probability": 0.6938523243340555,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

285
data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -1,4 +1,24 @@
[ [
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04362323410844767939963177518202151",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9563767658915523206003682248179785",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "102",
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
@ -7,28 +27,37 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9025904062700764642551528216597443", "probability": "0.9013748586414486533130605654885246",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.09740959372992353574484717834025572", "probability": "0.0986251413585513466869394345114754",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "721", "numforecasts": "723",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"outcomes": [ "options": [
"Yes", {
"No" "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01456986683448128899201154478899746",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9854301331655187110079884552110025",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
], ],
"options": [] "numforecasts": "157",
"stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?", "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
@ -38,36 +67,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5922690092000522779081613694725283", "probability": "0.5429675010103772436429096649505996",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.4077309907999477220918386305274717", "probability": "0.4570324989896227563570903350494004",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "348", "numforecasts": "392",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01428626098489305771182621788648866",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9857137390151069422881737821135113",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "3295",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -78,36 +87,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1037850776367937712365868678952302", "probability": "0.1047586563328496070788850040024748",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.8962149223632062287634131321047698", "probability": "0.8952413436671503929211149959975252",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "83", "numforecasts": "91",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9782538207860741130258555773468584",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.02174617921392588697414442265314155",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "596",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -118,16 +107,96 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9383426063173342395056578822128255", "probability": "0.945411013497345277834355815925536",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.0616573936826657604943421177871745", "probability": "0.05458898650265472216564418407446405",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "767", "numforecasts": "852",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1000088021372956222173337235615067",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8999911978627043777826662764384933",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "66",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01479126561756588071986562671041005",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9852087343824341192801343732895899",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "3364",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9667695168191735773339115589371309",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.03323048318082642266608844106286906",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "618",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3923681823134877529676620655329725",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6076318176865122470323379344670275",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "19",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -138,78 +207,38 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4797381013292123136619314978444659", "probability": "0.45869502016622486223273049350794",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.5202618986707876863380685021555341", "probability": "0.54130497983377513776726950649206",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "126", "numforecasts": "131",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on June 1, 2021?", "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-cuomo-be-governor-of-new-york-on-june-1-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Andrew Cuomo will be governor of New York on June 1, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Andrew Cuomo is the Governor of New York as substantiated by official government sources like https://www.governor.ny.gov/. If, for any reason, Andrew Cuomo is not the sitting Governor of New York on that date, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is https://www.governor.ny.gov/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7988761039682734077181639725934345", "probability": "0.5612835878784322639229718937535726",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.2011238960317265922818360274065655", "probability": "0.4387164121215677360770281062464274",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "94", "numforecasts": "2",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{
"title": "Will ETH be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-march-7th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9997277162813358301013561917408765",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.0002722837186641698986438082591235352",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "2245",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1089138869398000671566351621910351",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8910861130601999328433648378089649",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "239",
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021",
@ -218,38 +247,58 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3442695524534932485445110944704756", "probability": "0.3506373749139563440709149225354222",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.6557304475465067514554889055295244", "probability": "0.6493626250860436559290850774645778",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "349", "numforecasts": "426",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04141542959661707716254055386508762", "probability": "0.140894399141350354152909901245227",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9585845704033829228374594461349124", "probability": "0.859105600858649645847090098754773",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "61", "numforecasts": "247",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05284697941811101448356581329694619",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9471530205818889855164341867030538",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "49",
"stars": 3
},
{ {
"title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?", "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
@ -258,16 +307,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8849598718521151481280201135347557", "probability": "0.9012705611557196906805184754055062",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.1150401281478848518719798864652443", "probability": "0.09872943884428030931948152459449382",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "885", "numforecasts": "912",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
} }
] ]

1100
data/predictit-questions.json
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173
data/smarkets-questions.json
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@ -387,32 +387,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn", "name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.014479113878230653, "probability": 0.014525383106979447,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Nigel Farage", "name": "Nigel Farage",
"probability": 0.007601534786071093, "probability": 0.00762582613116421,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jo Swinson", "name": "Jo Swinson",
"probability": 0.08615072757547239, "probability": 0.08642602948652771,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Keir Starmer", "name": "Keir Starmer",
"probability": 0.14479113878230654, "probability": 0.14525383106979448,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
"probability": 0.010352566422934917, "probability": 0.010385648921490303,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Sajid Javid", "name": "Sajid Javid",
"probability": 0.024107724607254036, "probability": 0.02418476287312078,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -422,7 +422,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Dominic Raab", "name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0.04025193658148121, "probability": 0.04038056503740286,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -432,17 +432,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
"probability": 0.024107724607254036, "probability": 0.02418476287312078,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rory Stewart", "name": "Rory Stewart",
"probability": 0.015709838557880256, "probability": 0.0157600406710727,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Amber Rudd", "name": "Amber Rudd",
"probability": 0.021284297400999058, "probability": 0.021352313167259787,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -457,7 +457,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Michael Gove", "name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.055672192861796865, "probability": 0.05585009804633598,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -467,17 +467,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Ruth Davidson", "name": "Ruth Davidson",
"probability": 0.020125968290740606, "probability": 0.02019028251870143,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Tom Watson", "name": "Tom Watson",
"probability": 0.015709838557880256, "probability": 0.0157600406710727,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Yvette Cooper", "name": "Yvette Cooper",
"probability": 0.027872294215594007, "probability": 0.027961362480935437,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -497,7 +497,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jeremy Hunt", "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
"probability": 0.06580757257655831, "probability": 0.06601786622122159,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -507,17 +507,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Lisa Nandy", "name": "Lisa Nandy",
"probability": 0.036197784695576635, "probability": 0.03631345776744862,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Liz Truss", "name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.03446029103018895, "probability": 0.03457041179461108,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Priti Patel", "name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.03446029103018895, "probability": 0.03457041179461108,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -527,22 +527,22 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Ken Clarke", "name": "Ken Clarke",
"probability": 0.04387171505103887, "probability": 0.04401191081414772,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Harriet Harman", "name": "Harriet Harman",
"probability": 0.007239556939115327, "probability": 0.007262691553489724,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Margaret Beckett", "name": "Margaret Beckett",
"probability": 0.05364511691884457, "probability": 0.05381654441135885,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rishi Sunak", "name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.2161007746325925, "probability": 0.21359575858813276,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -652,12 +652,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Boris Johnson", "name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.04397492923574606, "probability": 0.04501707544240919,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rishi Sunak", "name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.050545895673271335, "probability": 0.05174376487633241,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -667,37 +667,37 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Priti Patel", "name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.07217953902143147, "probability": 0.07389009624340268,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Michael Gove", "name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.09623938536190862, "probability": 0.0985201283245369,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Robert Buckland", "name": "Robert Buckland",
"probability": 0.08087343307723414, "probability": 0.08279002380213185,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Ben Wallace", "name": "Ben Wallace",
"probability": 0.12029923170238578, "probability": 0.12315016040567113,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Matt Hancock", "name": "Matt Hancock",
"probability": 0.13303679741205016, "probability": 0.11249094484114663,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Alok Sharma", "name": "Alok Sharma",
"probability": 0.07773958754549132, "probability": 0.07958191037979924,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Elizabeth Truss", "name": "Elizabeth Truss",
"probability": 0.05469065911847959, "probability": 0.055986753596191666,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -707,7 +707,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Gavin Williamson", "name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0.14870602507076428, "probability": 0.15223015626616995,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -717,7 +717,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Robert Jenrick", "name": "Robert Jenrick",
"probability": 0.07773958754549132, "probability": 0.07958191037979924,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -752,7 +752,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Amanda Milling", "name": "Amanda Milling",
"probability": 0.04397492923574606, "probability": 0.04501707544240919,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1273,36 +1273,41 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Sadiq Khan", "name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.9425171440096813, "probability": 0.9310619645347681,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Shaun Bailey", "name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.026522791448164582, "probability": 0.029288702928870303,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Siân Berry", "name": "Siân Berry",
"probability": 0.00010084711577248892, "probability": 0.0009962143853357245,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"probability": 0.00010084711577248892, "probability": 0.00009962143853357247,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Brian Rose", "name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.02964905203711174, "probability": 0.035564853556485365,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Mandu Reid", "name": "Mandu Reid",
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{ {
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},
{
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} }
], ],
@ -1860,12 +1865,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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{ {
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@ -1946,12 +1951,12 @@
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@ -2305,25 +2310,6 @@
"description": "Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.", "description": "Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "Will the Brexit/Reform Party reach 10% in a YouGov poll?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944336/politics/uk/nigel-farage/brexit-reform-party-to-poll-10",
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],
"description": "Will the Brexit Party or Reform Party reach 10% in a UK voting intention poll conducted by YouGov by 23 March 2021?",
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},
{ {
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"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place", "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place",
@ -2331,7 +2317,7 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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{ {
@ -2351,12 +2337,12 @@
}, },
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{ {
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], ],
@ -2675,22 +2661,22 @@
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@ -3246,12 +3232,12 @@
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@ -3511,17 +3497,17 @@
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{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -3554,12 +3540,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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{ {
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@ -3907,12 +3893,12 @@
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], ],
@ -3926,12 +3912,12 @@
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], ],
@ -4002,12 +3988,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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], ],
@ -4032,5 +4018,24 @@
], ],
"description": "Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", "description": "Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Referendum on monarchy by 2024",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024",
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],
"description": "Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?",
"stars": 2
} }
] ]